Prediction : Chucky Olives finishes both Poirier and Gaethje then loses a decision to Makhachev

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It’s funny TS, you could actually be 100% correct with your equation, yet fans, pundits and fighters will still say that Oliviera will have to propensity to quit on himself.
Iron Monger said:
So I'm totally biased because I'm a big Charles Olive's fan. Loves the guy's fighting style since he first entered the UFC, super happy for him when he got it all together at LW and got the belt.

I see him finishing both Poirier and Gaethje on the ground in bar burners fights. Of course they can win that fight too it's MMA anything can happen especially at that elite level. But I don't really see the big edge that they have on him today, except durability. And he showed he can come back from adversity big time against Chandler. I really think he's underestimated on here and that people don't realize how dangerous of a finisher he is on the ground, on top of having developed into a really skilled Muay Thai artist.

I know Poirier and Gaethje are enormous fan favorites here and saying they won't win each fight is a blasphemy for both fan bases. But I just see Poirier being caught in a scramble after he gets wild like he usually does. And for Gaethje I'm sorry but as soon as it hits the ground after either gets knocked down he's getting totally schooled in submission grappling. The difference in jiu jitsu between him and do Bronx is abysmal.

Then I see makhachev beating him in 5 rounds fight that goes the distance sadly, just because he's the most skilled at that Caucasus grappling style after khabib, and it's a nightmare style for jiu jitsu fighters as we saw in Khabib/RDA. Plus Islam is calculated on the feet and doesn't take too many risks, maybe because he got knocked out one time. And neither guy is finishing the other on the ground, I just can't see it. Makhachev won't get too wild with ground and pound and he's never catching Do Bronx with a submission ever. Onlychance Chucky Olives has is if he rocks him standing but Makhachev can always stall wrestle for recovery any time.

So that's my prediction, Charles finishes Poirier and Gaethje back to back in sick back and forth fights, and then loses a close decision to Islam Makhachev. What do you think do you see it possible or no ?
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Imagine people doubting Do Bronx' ability to snatch Poirier's neck.

I think TS prediction is close and could easily play out as noted.
 
Madeline Chelsea said:
I don’t think this fight will ever get to the ground anyway. Oliveira has a glass chin and does not possess Khabib’s level of takedown ability. Poirier is going to piece him up on the feet, putting Oliveira in a really bad spot.

Go rewatch that fight please, Chandler was dominating Oliveira on the ground and nearly finished him with a guillotine choke. 10-8 was also a legit score for that round. The fight was almost stopped a few times.
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Most of chandler's success on the mat was GNP, and most of it was when he was standing over oliveira's guard and not engaging in the grappling. When he did engage, not much happened except for chandler being defensive, then he disengaged and then the round ended.
 
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fortheo said:
Most of chandler's success on the mat was GNP, and most of it was when he was standing over oliveira's guard and not engaging in the grappling. When he did engage, not much happened except for chandler being defensive, then he disengaged and then the round ended.
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exactly! there are certain narratives in MMA which 90% of people simply remember wrong, one of them is this fight as you just explained and the other one is Ferguson VS Lee, where like nearly everybody "remembers" how Lee totally destroyed Tony on the ground and only lost because he gassed in the later rounds. However, if rewatching the fight one will see that Lees "domination" was just a few seconds mount in the first round where he did absolutely no damage...
 
Madeline Chelsea said:
I don’t think this fight will ever get to the ground anyway. Oliveira has a glass chin and does not possess Khabib’s level of takedown ability. Poirier is going to piece him up on the feet, putting Oliveira in a really bad spot.
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All of Charles fights hit the ground at some point. It is inevitable. And the standup will be very evenly matched, in no way Dustin is going to "piece him up" even if he dominates the striking part, which is a possiblity. I'll quote you again when the fight is done.

Go rewatch that fight please, Chandler was dominating Oliveira on the ground and nearly finished him with a guillotine choke. 10-8 was also a legit score for that round. The fight was almost stopped a few times.
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Bro I rewatched that fight this morning, it's you that need to watch it again. "Chandler nearly finished him with a guillotine" is a ridiculous statement. At no point was he close of doing so and he let that guillotine go himself because he knew it was going nowhere. And saying that round was a 10-8 for Chandler is even more ridiculous. Charles had his back and was threatening a rear naked choke for a good portion of that round, sure Chandler clipped him and finished strong but there's no one in the universe except you that would score that round a 10-8. I can't take you seriously now.
 
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HotWingsSlayer said:
Chuck vs Dustin is a very even match up. Dustin ability to stay in the pocket, and negate most of the damage that comes his way is a very impressive quality. Oliveira fights long, and sometimes uses elbow, and seems to be quicker of these two. But I would give an edge to Dustin who is simply more proved in stand up game. Ground however, Olviera has an amazing submission offensive, where Dustin really doesn't do much in that department. Defensively great,but nothing else.
Oliviera Vs Gatheje though, is much more one sided. Gatheje won't be able to do much against Bronx. Too sluggish. It's just a matter of time until he gets pieced up. You can quote me on that.
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Hey I will quote you because I totally agree with your analysis. Like 100%. You just expressed that better than me.
 
I would favor Dustin/Justin over Charles/Daruish, but not a huge favor. Like 60/40.

But I think Oliveria/Daruish would give Islam (whom I consider the best LW) a more difficult fight than Dustin/Justin could give.
 
Iron Monger said:
Honestly Garthje is a bit overrated imo but because he's exciting his fan base won't acknowledge any analysis of his flaws. He's training with Wittman and is a bit more patient so we must believe he's invincible. While in reality he still has a tendency to wild brawls if pressured and his BJJ must be the worst in all of the top 5 at LW. The last point is not even debatable I think. I honestly see Charles having a much easier fight against Gaethje than Poirier, the latter being a more difficult stylistic matchup for Do Bronx.
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While that may be a fair assumption you HAVE to consider the process of getting the fight to the ground, and Poirier has much worse wrestling than Gaethje. I can see Chuck taking down both fighters, but I'm sure he'll have an easier time wrestling Poirier.
On the ground Poirier is clearly more skilled than Justin, and on the feet too, but matchups are more than the sum of a fighter's abilities.
 
ConditFan said:
So he has a pattern of getting rocked?
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You're spinning it now. You were saying that his comeback against Chandler doesn't mean that he became more durable. @fortheo proved you that it's not a one off and that he came back from adversity against Teymur too. That should be enough to prove he has heart.

Now if you want to talk about fighters that have a pattern of getting rocked then Poirier and Gaethje are the two kings of this in the LW division. They basically get rocked every other fight. Dustin was clipped good against Hooker and Max and Gaethje ate bombs against Chandler and was finished two times in the last 3,5 years.
 
Madeline Chelsea said:
Dustin objectively has better stand-up and pieces him up all day. My only worry for him would be getting caught in a kind of out of nowhere submission. But just seeing how the power of Chandler almost put away Oliveira in the first round, I’m definitely favoring Poirier by knockout.
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Yeah I'll hit you up after the fight. He definitely not going to "piece him up". He may have an advantage not denying it but I can't remember the last time Poirier pieced up anybody without eating a ton of damage himself (except the 2 fights against coke addict version of conor). Oliveira is understimated big time on the feet. And using the Chandler fight as a proof is really nonsense as he finished that fight via tko on the feet.
 
Madeline Chelsea said:
ANOTHER THING: Poirier has seemed to have developed a great ground and pound game. Conor has a seriously underrated guard and Poirier was able to rain down huge shots from it rather easily. Felder won by blasting Oliveira in guard and Poirier could definitely do the same.
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Woah. Now you're comparing Conor McGregor guard to Charles Oliveira's in terms of the danger they pose. You're out of your mind man seriously.

And shit we're still clinging to that Felder fight. When was it 2016 ? 2017 ? You know what else happened so far back dude ? Poirier lost to Michael Johnson via TKO. And you know the common factor between those two fights : they have zero relevance today. Fighters evolve stop living in the past.
 
Madeline Chelsea said:
Who all has Oliveira really beat? A thoroughly washed Tony, a chinny Chandler who lost 1/3 of his fights in the B-leagues, Kevin Lee who was released, and a bunch of guys who can't crack the rankings? Oliveira was just in the right place at the right time.
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See you can do that for every fighter. It's just is a ridiculous statement. I can do the same nonsensical rubbish : who has poirier beat ? A coke addict washed up version of Conor, hooker who lost again and is now at featherweight, max who came in featherweight shape and he weight bullied, Alvarez who is now losing in one FC, gaethje when he was still a wild brawler who got finished by Alvarez etc...

Of course all of that is nonsense and Poirier's run is nothing short of amazing, and all of his wins were solid wins against very talented fighters when it happened and in the context that it happened and it's the same for Charles Oliveira and his streak. Beating Chandler, Tony and Lee back to back is no joke. You can berate any fighter if you hate him enough. Even Khabib, even GSP, even Anderson Silva or Fedor.

You're clearly just a Charles hater or/and a unreasonable Poirier fan. I can't discuss seriously with you it's just fanboyism.
 
Iron Monger said:
You're spinning it now. You were saying that his comeback against Chandler doesn't mean that he became more durable. @fortheo proved you that it's not a one off and that he came back from adversity against Teymur too. That should be enough to prove he has heart.

Now if you want to talk about fighters that have a pattern of getting rocked then Poirier and Gaethje are the two kings of this in the LW division. They basically get rocked every other fight. Dustin was clipped good against Hooker and Max and Gaethje ate bombs against Chandler and was finished two times in the last 3,5 years.
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Charles is finish or be finished. I favor the more durable fighters against that. I think he loses to Dustin, Justin, and Islam. I just hope it's a good fight against Dustin
 
Olives vs Dustin is almost a coin-toss fight for me.

Whereas Dustin edges him on the feet, Charles should edge him in grappling ranges. Equally dangerous.

Justin however, as dangerous and crazy as he is, he get hit a lot in his fights. Usually always gets clipped. I can see Charles catching Justin and the way he will latch a submission is like a cobra snake. He will snatch a front head-lock choke in a second if you bend over towards him. I also like how he will take your back from standing and body-triangle your ass there.


Islam carries the same wrestling/grappling pedigree that Khabib had. I dont see any LW stopping that attack besides touching his chin and putting him to sleep. And yes, Islam could submit Charles also by making Charles carry him for several rounds and wear him down to butter.
 
It will be very difficult for Oliveira to get past both Poirier and Gaethje.
 
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