Political Betting Thread

[Slohog]

This thread has devolved into a bunch of alt right conspiracies. I understand betting Trump at some of the lines that have been available but the reasoning in here is hilariously awful. This shit is straight off infowars which has proved time and time again to be 95% bogus.

Sad!

Well first of all, I'm from Sweden where Hillary's immigration policies probably would be considered close to neo-nazi territory. That's not even a joke, our 3rd biggest party wanted our immigration per capita to be the same as the 2nd highest in Europe and they got called neo nazis by a bunch of big Swedish newspapers. I'm a long time libertarian who believes in free movement of more or less everything short of nukes and I've been a professional gambler for soon tens years despite having a law degree. Last election I voted for the most pro-immigration major party Europe has ever seen.

I have not Hillary at fairly high odds (+250 or something I think, to lazy to look it up) for ~five units. I placed it a few months ago due to the fact that she's a horrible candidate, had a few ticking time bombs (Wikileaks, her health, "Brexit-esque"-factors, her E-mails etc etc) and her inability to preform well in open elections.

Now it turns out that one of those long shots seems to get legs, even in Hillary-friendly media, and the odds are falling fast. A lot of us have a bunch of money on Trump, not because we think he'll be a good president (I don't, although probably better then Hillary) but because we think it has value. Trump would probably not have value against a good candidate, which is why we look for signs that the general population sees that Hillary is a very bad candidate.

I've made decent money fading media favorites in a bunch of different elections and while I'm not sure who wins this election, but a lot of us has beaten the line movement so far and it's not because we trust everything out of every dumb website we can find, but rather since we try to figure out where the value is, the probability of stuff blowing up in the candidates respective faces and such.

Now, we don't know what's up with Hillary, but it seems fairly likely that she's hiding something. Occam's razor suggests that she does, because if she didn't hide anything she'd just let some unbiased doctor do a complete check and tell everyone she's fine. And even if everything she says is true it looks a lot like bullshit, which is the important part for us to cash our bets. We got this right before the media and gambling sites, and that's why we're in a position to either hedge for profit or at least ride with very good odds.

 

[Sham5916910]

Well first of all, I'm from Sweden where Hillary's immigration policies probably would be considered close to neo-nazi territory. That's not even a joke, our 3rd biggest party wanted our immigration per capita to be the same as the 2nd highest in Europe and they got called neo nazis by a bunch of big Swedish newspapers. I'm a long time libertarian who believes in free movement of more or less everything short of nukes and I've been a professional gambler for soon tens years despite having a law degree. Last election I voted for the most pro-immigration major party Europe has ever seen.

I have not Hillary at fairly high odds (+250 or something I think, to lazy to look it up) for ~five units. I placed it a few months ago due to the fact that she's a horrible candidate, had a few ticking time bombs (Wikileaks, her health, "Brexit-esque"-factors, her E-mails etc etc) and her inability to preform well in open elections.

Now it turns out that one of those long shots seems to get legs, even in Hillary-friendly media, and the odds are falling fast. A lot of us have a bunch of money on Trump, not because we think he'll be a good president (I don't, although probably better then Hillary) but because we think it has value. Trump would probably not have value against a good candidate, which is why we look for signs that the general population sees that Hillary is a very bad candidate.

I've made decent money fading media favorites in a bunch of different elections and while I'm not sure who wins this election, but a lot of us has beaten the line movement so far and it's not because we trust everything out of every dumb website we can find, but rather since we try to figure out where the value is, the probability of stuff blowing up in the candidates respective faces and such.

Now, we don't know what's up with Hillary, but it seems fairly likely that she's hiding something. Occam's razor suggests that she does, because if she didn't hide anything she'd just let some unbiased doctor do a complete check and tell everyone she's fine. And even if everything she says is true it looks a lot like bullshit, which is the important part for us to cash our bets. We got this right before the media and gambling sites, and that's why we're in a position to either hedge for profit or at least ride with very good odds.

Off topic but what do you specialise in to allow you to be a pro gambler?

 

[waiguoren]

Well first of all, I'm from Sweden where Hillary's immigration policies probably would be considered close to neo-nazi territory. That's not even a joke, our 3rd biggest party wanted our immigration per capita to be the same as the 2nd highest in Europe and they got called neo nazis by a bunch of big Swedish newspapers. I'm a long time libertarian who believes in free movement of more or less everything short of nukes and I've been a professional gambler for soon tens years despite having a law degree. Last election I voted for the most pro-immigration major party Europe has ever seen.

I have not Hillary at fairly high odds (+250 or something I think, to lazy to look it up) for ~five units. I placed it a few months ago due to the fact that she's a horrible candidate, had a few ticking time bombs (Wikileaks, her health, "Brexit-esque"-factors, her E-mails etc etc) and her inability to preform well in open elections.

Now it turns out that one of those long shots seems to get legs, even in Hillary-friendly media, and the odds are falling fast. A lot of us have a bunch of money on Trump, not because we think he'll be a good president (I don't, although probably better then Hillary) but because we think it has value. Trump would probably not have value against a good candidate, which is why we look for signs that the general population sees that Hillary is a very bad candidate.

I've made decent money fading media favorites in a bunch of different elections and while I'm not sure who wins this election, but a lot of us has beaten the line movement so far and it's not because we trust everything out of every dumb website we can find, but rather since we try to figure out where the value is, the probability of stuff blowing up in the candidates respective faces and such.

Now, we don't know what's up with Hillary, but it seems fairly likely that she's hiding something. Occam's razor suggests that she does, because if she didn't hide anything she'd just let some unbiased doctor do a complete check and tell everyone she's fine. And even if everything she says is true it looks a lot like bullshit, which is the important part for us to cash our bets. We got this right before the media and gambling sites, and that's why we're in a position to either hedge for profit or at least ride with very good odds.

Sums it up very well.

 

[waiguoren]

Didn't even consider the fact that if someone is face planting from dehydration caused from pneumonia there is no way they would be up and going in 90 minutes. I've had family members that were dehydrated. 1 being my young very healthy daughter. All neede IVs and were pretty much bed ridden most that day.

That plus she would have been taken to a hospital immediately, not given treatment at Chelsea's house. The fact they took her to Chelsea's is evidence that they are used to dealing with the issue "in house". It's something chronic and neurological

 

[Slohog]

Off topic but what do you specialise in to allow you to be a pro gambler?

Used to play fairly high stakes poker (never was a reg higher then 10/20, but took shots at 50/100, have a few ~10k tournament score and had multiple 100k+ years in a row) then I put most of that money into the stock market.

Currently I'm a slight winner or breakeven at all kinds of betting (think I'm up on a fair bit E-sports and some stuff where I mostly tail people, breakeven on MMA except for the months when everything else is boring so I study a ton of tape).

Basically I'm not claiming to be this bad ass bettor or anything, but I have a decent grip on the mental game when it comes to gambling and I'm not some random noob who puts money on politicians because I like them as persons.

 

[Sham5916910]

Used to play fairly high stakes poker (never was a reg higher then 10/20, but took shots at 50/100, have a few ~10k tournament score and had multiple 100k+ years in a row) then I put most of that money into the stock market.

Currently I'm a slight winner or breakeven at all kinds of betting (think I'm up on a fair bit E-sports and some stuff where I mostly tail people, breakeven on MMA except for the months when everything else is boring so I study a ton of tape).

Basically I'm not claiming to be this bad ass bettor or anything, but I have a decent grip on the mental game when it comes to gambling and I'm not some random noob who puts money on politicians because I like them as persons.

Cool good to hear someone making a living out of it on a full time basis. Strongly considering it myself once my br is strong enough and my mortgage is paid off.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Slohog,

I liked your big post above and it makes sense. What do you think about current value on "not Hillary" currently sitting at +178 (5d)

 

[Slohog]

Slohog,

I liked your big post above and it makes sense. What do you think about current value on "not Hillary" currently sitting at +178 (5d)

Dog or pass, probably some value but so many unknowns.

 

[Barkus]

This thread has devolved into a bunch of alt right conspiracies. I understand betting Trump at some of the lines that have been available but the reasoning in here is hilariously awful. This shit is straight off infowars which has proved time and time again to be 95% bogus.

Sad!

I'm not certain that Hillary has Parkinson's, but I think there's a good chance she does. If you apply Occam's razor, Parkinson's (or some other neurological disorder) is both the the simplest and best explanation for all the strange happenings with her and her campaign.

 

[waiguoren]

New Monmouth poll

Iowa: Trump +8

Iowa has matched the national popular vote in every election since 1988.

 

[Jack Scrapper]

Occam's razor says Hillary is the most qualified politician in the country for the presidential office, and a decent human. So get off her nuts.

And that Ya boy Don is a POS racist who lies. Bunch of republican geeks making losing bets/ that is all. they are big odds, but with/out value. There isn't enough appeal nationwide that it would take to get the requisite total of votes come November 8.

Value's on Hillary. Lol go back to your 'champion' who hates his country's elected president, and cheers on the actions/'leadership' of the psycho-dictator Russian Putin.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

5d has Clinton/Trump -165/+165

Tightest it has been

 

[Barkus]

If Trump is able to establish himself as a front runner in the polls Hillary will be in huge trouble. In Hillary's political career she's entered every campaign with huge leads due to her name and from there plays prevent defence. If she ever falls behind she will have no ability to grow her support to get back into it. She's made big gains on Trump so far but those were because of Trump fumbling badly (judge and Kahn gaffes). Trump has closed the gap again and is doing everything right (so far). But the debates are high risk territory for gaffes so those will be huge.

 

[Scythe]

Get on the Field against Trump -190/Clinton -165 train while you can. I could see her dipping a bit more even, but things are likely to swing again soon.

 

[Slohog]

Occam's razor says Hillary is the most qualified politician in the country for the presidential office, and a decent human. So get off her nuts.

And that Ya boy Don is a POS racist who lies. Bunch of republican geeks making losing bets/ that is all. they are big odds, but with/out value. There isn't enough appeal nationwide that it would take to get the requisite total of votes come November 8.

Value's on Hillary. Lol go back to your 'champion' who hates his country's elected president, and cheers on the actions/'leadership' of the psycho-dictator Russian Putin.

You either do not know what Occam's razor is or there's like at least a bunch of words missing in that post.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor

Also stop with the namecalling, no one here (to my knowledge) has stated that we think Trump would be a good president, just that he has more betting value (or at least had) then the other side. Given that odds have dropped a ton since then we had it right.

 

[rille31]

Occam's razor says Hillary is the most qualified politician in the country for the presidential office, and a decent human. So get off her nuts.

And that Ya boy Don is a POS racist who lies. Bunch of republican geeks making losing bets/ that is all. they are big odds, but with/out value. There isn't enough appeal nationwide that it would take to get the requisite total of votes come November 8.

Value's on Hillary. Lol go back to your 'champion' who hates his country's elected president, and cheers on the actions/'leadership' of the psycho-dictator Russian Putin.

I played trump +310 to +400 and now I can get some free money by playing clint @ like -175

how is that a bad bet?

 

[waiguoren]

Occam's razor says Hillary is the most qualified politician in the country for the presidential office, and a decent human. So get off her nuts.

And that Ya boy Don is a POS racist who lies. Bunch of republican geeks making losing bets/ that is all. they are big odds, but with/out value. There isn't enough appeal nationwide that it would take to get the requisite total of votes come November 8.

Value's on Hillary. Lol go back to your 'champion' who hates his country's elected president, and cheers on the actions/'leadership' of the psycho-dictator Russian Putin.

Since you see value on Clinton, please show us your betting slips.

 

[Jack Scrapper]

Since you're all so ignorant.

U deserve to lose your buffoon bets. So there's that.

 

[rille31]

Since you're all so ignorant.

U deserve to lose your buffoon bets. So there's that.

I guess you only bet on people you like, how does that work out for you in mma?

 

[Jack Scrapper]

^ Guess again. Then again, when was the last time you posted winning bets in the bet thread?? Sport passing u by chum?

Lol you're talking to me in a language of which is not native to you, about an election that is in a land far, far away from you. Let me tell you all about how much I value the opinion of an idiot from northern Europe on the topic and it's likelihood.