Political Betting Thread

[waiguoren]

Here is something I wrote elsewhere, relevant to betting on individual states. Guy was arguing that NM is less likely to go Trump than PA based on what experts said. I disagreed:

Most of the "experts" are no better than the polls they are looking at. If you are aware of a demographic/regional breakdown of voting patterns in these states which can tell us more than the raw polling, do share.

My point on third-party support is that it's easier to turn a Johnson voter into a Trump voter than it is to turn a Clinton voter into a Trump voter. So states like NM with lots of Johnson support might be more likely to go Trump than a state like PA with more polarization, even if Clinton is +8 in both.

Johnson is only polling at 6 in PA while he is polling at 16 in NM. Both states are showing about 10% undecided. Now, I happen to think undecideds are going to favor Trump big over Clinton, but still not enough to erase an 8% gap. Thus For Trump to win PA or NM he needs to either a) convert Clinton voters (unlikely) b) convert Johnson supporters (much more likely). This task is easier in a state like NM with lots of Johnson support than in a state like PA with little Johnson support.

 

[SBJJ]

Jesus. When Clinton was up +10 it was blasted everywhere. U couldn't open up yahoo or google without seeing articles on how Trump was done.

Now with Trump polling even or even better u don't see shit

 

[waiguoren]

Jesus. When Clinton was up +10 it was blasted everywhere. U couldn't open up yahoo or google without seeing articles on how Trump was done.

Now with Trump polling even or even better u don't see shit

Correct. Media bias is more blatant this cycle than I have ever seen.

 

[SBJJ]

Correct. Media bias is more blatant this cycle than I have ever seen.

They don't even attempt to hide it.

I'm tempted to unload on Trump @ +260. But it honestly seems like all forces are against him. The Media. The Wall Street fat cats. The elite class. The Neo Cons. I'm just not sure any candidate can win against this.

 

[waiguoren]

They don't even attempt to hide it.

I'm tempted to unload on Trump @ +260. But it honestly seems like all forces are against him. The Media. The Wall Street fat cats. The elite class. The Neo Cons. I'm just not sure any candidate can win against this.

Understandable. I am pretty confident he will win, but it won't be easy.

 

[waiguoren]

They don't even attempt to hide it.

I'm tempted to unload on Trump @ +260. But it honestly seems like all forces are against him. The Media. The Wall Street fat cats. The elite class. The Neo Cons. I'm just not sure any candidate can win against this.

Latest CNN poll has Trump in the lead nationally by 2. Trump leads among independents 49% to 29%. With over 20% of independents undecided or voting for Johnson/Stein, I think Trump still has a lot of people he can win over.

 

[waiguoren]

Haven't checked the lines, but now is the time to go heavy on Trump at dog odds. Clinton just had another medical episode, this time in NYC. Her campaign is lying, claiming Clinton "overheated". Basically Trump lucked out---Clinton will not drop out as a result of this, but it will solidify the argument that she has serious health problems.

 

[waiguoren]

 

[Barkus]

Hillary health issues might be serious.



Edit: You just beat me to it waig lol

 

[Barkus]

Haven't checked the lines, but now is the time to go heavy on Trump at dog odds. Clinton just had another medical episode, this time in NYC. Her campaign is lying, claiming Clinton "overheated". Basically Trump lucked out---Clinton will not drop out as a result of this, but it will solidify the argument that she has serious health problems.

I think Hillary NOT to win is the best play on the chance that Hillary does end up dropping out.

 

[waiguoren]

I think Hillary NOT to win is the best play on the chance that Hillary does end up dropping out.

Yup. Exactly why I got in on NOT Clinton months ago at +170. Trump was +200 and I thought the former had much better value.

 

[waiguoren]

I think Hillary NOT to win is the best play on the chance that Hillary does end up dropping out.

But depending on what the lines are, Trump might have more value at this point than NOT Clinton. Knowing the Clintons...they do not quit. They are the hardiest of the career politicians, the Diego Sanchezes of politics. I predict she will fight until the bitter end unless she literally can't act normally long enough to do the debates.

 

[SBJJ]

Damn. I didn't put to much into this health issue. But this just does not look good at all. This seems to be happening alot

 

[SBJJ]

I threw another 300 on Trump. Up to like 700.00 now. Also have some state races

 

[waiguoren]

Damn. I didn't put to much into this health issue. But this just does not look good at all. This seems to be happening alot

I didn't put anything into it until I saw the "seizure video". I still can't understand why that didn't get more attention. To me it is worse than the fall she had yesterday.

 

[Barkus]

Trump is handling Clinton's health issue as he should. He's batting 1000 since the campaign management change, while Hillary had a big gaffe and a major health scandle over the last two days.

This will get interesting.

 

[Sham5916910]

Trump +220 bite now b4 it worsens?

 

[Barkus]

Trump +220 bite now b4 it worsens?

No rush, I think the odds have more or less stabilized from the weekend. But if there are any major changes in the polls coming out then the odds will shift again.

I already have a lot of money on Trump and even more on NOT Hillary. I added a little more NOT Hillary, but I'm leaving Trump straight up alone. If the DNC does replace Hillary, Trump might be an even bigger underdog than he is now. I think Biden replacing Hillary would be the worse case scenario for Trump. Hillary is technically already on the ballot in a lot of States, but the courts can and would make the switch if asked, there's nothing legally preventing a switch.

I think Hillary is using pneumonia as a cover for more serious health issues, sadly. Assuming she is, I expect her to take a very short time off to 'recover' from her pneumonia and hit the campaign trail with a fresh bill of health in the minds of the voters. It's a pretty smart move, and if she can avoid any other public health scares for the next couple of months then it will probably work. That's a big if though. She will be under a microscope now. And I think she will likely make less public appearances to reduce the odds of another incident, which would also hurt her campaign.

Trump has the momentum now, but has shot himself in the foot every time he gets any momentum. He hasn't yet this time and I would attribute this to his new campaign management. It's going to be something to watch for.

Also the debates are coming soon and frankly, Trump debating can be cringe worthy at times. But then other times he can be pretty damn witty. He's got great gab skills, but he's weak on detailing policy. I sweat every time he opens his mouth on the debate stage. His odds might drop after the debates if he puts on a weak performance.

I made a bit of money on Trump to win the RNC and have basically double downed that he would win the presidency. It's been a crazy election cycle and I sometimes feel burnt out at times following the drama. In Canada we get this shit done in a month.

 

[waiguoren]

No rush, I think the odds have more or less stabilized from the weekend. But if there are any major changes in the polls coming out then the odds will shift again.

I already have a lot of money on Trump and even more on NOT Hillary. I added a little more NOT Hillary, but I'm leaving Trump straight up alone. If the DNC does replace Hillary, Trump might be an even bigger underdog than he is now. I think Biden replacing Hillary would be the worse case scenario for Trump. Hillary is technically already on the ballot in a lot of States, but the courts can and would make the switch if asked, there's nothing legally preventing a switch.

I think Hillary is using pneumonia as a cover for more serious health issues, sadly. Assuming she is, I expect her to take a very short time off to 'recover' from her pneumonia and hit the campaign trail with a fresh bill of health in the minds of the voters. It's a pretty smart move, and ifs she can avoid any other public health scares for the next couple of months then it will probably work. That's a big if though. She will be under a microscope now. And I think she will likely make less public appearances which to reduce to odds of another incident, which would also hurt her campaign.

Trump has the momentum now, but has shot himself in the foot every time he gets any momentum. He hasn't yet this time and I would attribute this to his new campaign management. It's going to be something to watch for.

Also the debates are coming soon and frankly, Trump debating can be cringe worthy at times. But then other times he can be pretty damn witty. He's got great gab skills, but he's weak on detailing policy. I sweat every time he opens his mouth on the debate stage. His odds might drop after the debates if he puts on a weak performance.

I made a bit of money on Trump to win the RNC and have basically double downed that he would win the presidency. It's been a crazy election cycle and I sometimes feel burnt out at times following the drama. In Canada we get this shit done in a month.

I predict the debates will be more boring than most expected. Clinton is probably not in shape to engage Trump too much, and Conway will be advising Trump to stay conservative and stick to the script.

If you look at the current state of the polling, Trump does not need much more of a bounce to take a clear lead. Newest Florida poll has him +4 there, which is huge. Nevada is tied and New Hampshire is within 4%, which is amazing. His life would be a lot easier if he could take PA, but I can still get him the win without it.

 

[SBJJ]

Something is terribly wrong here. Why wasn't Clinton taken to the hospital. What would u do if your old family member nearly face planted after being diagnosed with pneumonia. Also keep in mind it is secret service policy to take the person to the emergency room. But they were not allowed to. There really is something wrong here. And of course the media is not asking these questions.