Political Betting Thread

waiguoren said:
She is going to have a very hard time beating Trump. It's all about matchups. Clinton ... would lose badly to Kasich. Rubio would be a tossup. Trump v Clinton is a very interesting matchup but it favors Trump for a variety of reasons. Trump v Sanders would be very bad for Trump.
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What's up with Hillary's health?

I just assumed it was bullshit due to the sites I found the speculation on and such, but they have a lot of videos and pictures that seems fairly weird and hard to explain in a good way. What's the chance it'll become an issue? 15% or so?
 
It's only 90 days out so I'd put it at less than 5% that she has a health incident that impacts the race enough to swing it to Trump. It'd have to be significant and in public otherwise it's getting swept under the rug until after the election. Certainly not something I would bet on.

Trump's road to a win is pretty daunting now. New polls today have him down 4% in Georgia and they haven't gone D in 20+ years. Down double digits in Michigan, Virginia and Pennsylvania. The polls will probably tighten up a bit but I wouldn't bet on either at the current prices.
 
Slohog said:
What's up with Hillary's health?

I just assumed it was bullshit due to the sites I found the speculation on and such, but they have a lot of videos and pictures that seems fairly weird and hard to explain in a good way. What's the chance it'll become an issue? 15% or so?
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...r-seizure-allegations-raise-doubts-about-her-

Her health is a concern. Looks like the black SS agent who is regularly seen with her could actually be her personal medic who carries a diazepam pen for her seizures. (edit: I did more research and it's more likely to be a flashlight in his hand) There's also a recent picture of her requiring his assistance to get up a flight of stairs. So it's likely she does have major health issues, but if she hasn't dropped out yet, she's unlikely to drop out within the next 3 months. Whatever's wrong with her is being swept under the rug until after the election. There's still a small chance something happens during a public appearance, like fainting again or a seizure, which would bring her health into the forefront and would be a bad look for her campaign.

Another concern for Hillary is an October surprise from Wikileaks. Assange has said he will be releasing the rest of the leaked emails, in which there is enough incriminating evidence for Hillary to be indicted. He will likely release this in October when it will do the most damage to her campaign. But most media outlets seem to have a bias towards Hillary, so it's possible that the leak might not get the coverage it should.

I really don't know how this election is going to play out at this point. This is the second time Trump had gained momentum and lost it. He's going to need another big push within the next 3 months to have a chance. The rise of the 3rd parties (green and libertarian) is another X factor and I think it hurts Hillary more than Trump, since Trump's core supporters are probably more loyal than Hillary's. I have a pile of money on Trump and I'm tempted to hedge, but his price is terrible so I'm going to let it ride for now.
 
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"If she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do folks. Although the Second Amendment people—maybe there is. I don't know."

not good
 
edole said:
"If she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do folks. Although the Second Amendment people—maybe there is. I don't know."

not good
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Why is that not good?
 
waiguoren said:
Why is that not good?
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look at the news. Alluding to the assassination of your opponent for the United States Presidency is not a good look. There is absolutely no way he was referring to voting here.
 
Yea that stuff might stick. Think he needs walk on the right side of the "too outrageous" line. You can say whatever weird shit you like about dumb PC stuff and all that stuff but I'm not sure he gets away unhurt from that kind of stuff.

That said he might just go for maxing voter turn out and I still think all kinds of stuff can happen when the debates starts.
 
edole said:
look at the news. Alluding to the assassination of your opponent for the United States Presidency is not a good look. There is absolutely no way he was referring to voting here.
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Why are you so confident? The "2nd Amendment people" (i.e. the NRA, affiliated groups and the voters attached to them) are a very powerful force in US politics. They have a lot of money behind them as well as highly skilled attorneys. It's easy to imagine them successfully defending their view of the 2nd Amendment in front of the Supreme Court.

Will it hurt him? No idea but I think he's already reached his nadir and it would take a lot for him to drop further.
 
waiguoren said:
Why are you so confident? The "2nd Amendment people" (i.e. the NRA, affiliated groups and the voters attached to them) are a very powerful force in US politics. They have a lot of money behind them as well as highly skilled attorneys. It's easy to imagine them successfully defending their view of the 2nd Amendment in front of the Supreme Court.

Will it hurt him? No idea but I think he's already reached his nadir and it would take a lot for him to drop further.
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i hope youre right man. the biggest stories surrounding this election right now should be the Orlando shooter's father sitting directly behind Hillary at a campaign stop, and/or the newest emails leaked indicating further corruption within the DNC -- specifically pertaining to donors asking/receiving favors from the party.

The Donald needs to stick to the teleprompter and attack Hillary, that's it.

Both candidates are highly flawed and it is a little premature to declare the race over before either of them have even had a chance to debate. However, I see only two ways in which Hillary does not become president.

1) Gary Johnson gets to 15% -- makes some noise in the election and no candidate receives 270 delegates. The Republican dominated HOR will almost certainly elect Johnson or Trump. or

2) Julian Assange is sitting on something so detrimental to Hillary that the media can no longer ignore it and she is either indicted or forced to withdraw her campaign. He has alluded to this fact and has suggested that he will release it at the most oportune time.
 
edole said:
i hope youre right man. the biggest stories surrounding this election right now should be the Orlando shooter's father sitting directly behind Hillary at a campaign stop, and/or the newest emails leaked indicating further corruption within the DNC -- specifically pertaining to donors asking/receiving favors from the party.

The Donald needs to stick to the teleprompter and attack Hillary, that's it.

Both candidates are highly flawed and it is a little premature to declare the race over before either of them have even had a chance to debate. However, I see only two ways in which Hillary does not become president.

1) Gary Johnson gets to 15% -- makes some noise in the election and no candidate receives 270 delegates. The Republican dominated HOR will almost certainly elect Johnson or Trump. or

2) Julian Assange is sitting on something so detrimental to Hillary that the media can no longer ignore it and she is either indicted or forced to withdraw her campaign. He has alluded to this fact and has suggested that he will release it at the most oportune time.
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The risk of sticking to the teleprompter is fading into obscurity or failing to keep the base excited. It's a tough bind to be in because so much of his following comes from people's love of his lack of rehearsal and willingness to speak casually---but when you are holding multiple 2 hour rallies per week and speaking very conversationally, you are bound to say something that people can construe any way they want to. It's the reason why Clinton basically never goes off the teleprompter, refuses to hold press conferences and is very careful in her responses to interview questions.
 
waiguoren said:
The risk of sticking to the teleprompter is fading into obscurity or failing to keep the base excited. It's a tough bind to be in because so much of his following comes from people's love of his lack of rehearsal and willingness to speak casually---but when you are holding multiple 2 hour rallies per week and speaking very conversationally, you are bound to say something that people can construe any way they want to. It's the reason why Clinton basically never goes off the teleprompter, refuses to hold press conferences and is very careful in her responses to interview questions.
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Completely understood. His whole appeal to this point has been that he is not a career politician who will feed the public b.s, deflect questions, and be politically correct. However, he is proving himself incapable of speaking casually without putting his foot in his mouth. Every day it is something new where he has to backpedal. His campaign has to know that the media is going after him when/wherever possible. Clean it up, Donald. Otherwise this country is looking at its first actual coronation.
 
Trumps 5.00 (+400) at Betfair Im betting that, i dont have much faith in the MSM Polls at all (especially after Brexit which was 7.00 the day before the vote)

Dads will be getting off the couch for this one, and while millennials will flood their facebook with Anti-Trump things I don't think hillary clinton will inspire many of them to actually go out and vote
 
ninjadeathcult said:
Trumps 5.00 (+400) at Betfair Im betting that, i dont have much faith in the MSM Polls at all (especially after Brexit which was 7.00 the day before the vote)

Dads will be getting off the couch for this one, and while millennials will flood their facebook with Anti-Trump things I don't think hillary clinton will inspire many of them to actually go out and vote
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Great odds. I think you make a good point, but let's play devil's advocate a bit on the turnout issue. The Clintons are political experts. They know how to fund (directly and through surrogates) get-out-the-vote efforts in key areas of the key swing states which will decide this election. You've got Planned Parenthood registering young women now and I expect Clinton groups to offer all kinds of incentives to otherwise unengaged poorer people in the urban areas of Ohio and Florida.

They are like robots. Think of half-dead Bill Clinton showing up at a key polling station during the MA primary, attempting to influence the outcome. Think of his "golf trip" to 105 degree Phoenix, AZ during which he just happened to bump into the person responsible for deciding whether or not to prosecute his wife, then proceeded to hold a 30 minute secret meeting with her on a private jet.

Point is, the Clintons are highly experienced in the art of dirty politics and are not above stealing an election. I think Trump has great value at +400 but I also think he would lose if the election were held today.
 
waiguoren said:
I think he addressed this before. Said this election is too unpredictable for him.
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Haven't been looking at this thread. Thanks for the response. Personally have a feeling trump wins but I'm not really an expert on the topic
 
iGnP said:
Haven't been looking at this thread. Thanks for the response. Personally have a feeling trump wins but I'm not really an expert on the topic
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I had some extra funds sitting in my account so I took NOT Clinton at +170.
 
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