Political Betting Thread

It's easy enough to play both sides in this one unless Trump doesn't even want to rebound. Been down to Clinton -180 and up to Trump +360 already.

Trump will rise again! (and then fall again)
 
Scythe said:
It's easy enough to play both sides in this one unless Trump doesn't even want to rebound. Been down to Clinton -180 and up to Trump +360 already.

Trump will rise again! (and then fall again)
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Yep.
 
It's too early to know for sure, but it seems that Trump and Clinton are now closer in national polls than in the key battleground states like Ohio and Florida.

Based on FEC filings Clinton has been pouring money into those states to buy TV and radio ads, which Trump is spending very little on.
 
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Yea for some reason Trump seems to be saving up money. Think that might be a good thing for us if we're on him to win. That said I don't get the reasoning. It once again comes down to if Clinton can hold her own in live debates. To be honest I'm having decently high hopes about Trump owning those due to a bunch of different reasons including Clinton's lack of recent live appearances, her lack of experience with that kind of opponent and all her skeletons.
 
Slohog said:
Yea for some reason Trump seems to be saving up money. Think that might be a good thing for us if we're on him to win. That said I don't get the reasoning. It once again comes down to if Clinton can hold her own in live debates. To be honest I'm having decently high hopes about Trump owning those due to a bunch of different reasons including Clinton's lack of recent live appearances, her lack of experience with that kind of opponent and all her skeletons.
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Other than clowning Jeb Bush, I don't think Trump is a strong debater. Hillary will be so much more polished. She will have studied hard to make a solid game plan, and will anticipate every question like a professional politician. I think Trump will probably fucking wing it like he seems to have done in the past.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

The X factors:
-Trump's willingness to get dirty, be a bully and hit below the belt. It's what he's best at. It might be effective on Hillary.
-Hillary's potential poor health. If legit, standing and focusing for a long time in such an intense environment won't be easy. How will her stamina be?
-Trump will dwarf her at 6'2 vs 5'6 which could affect people's perception.
 
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Barkus said:
Other than clowning Jeb Bush, I don't think Trump is a strong debater. Hillary will be so much more polished. She will have studied hard to make a solid game plan, and will anticipate every question like a professional politician. I think Trump will probably fucking wing it like he seems to have done in the past.
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It's a good point, but Trump is smart. He calculated that he had to be a buffoon during the Republican debates in order to stand out from the crowd. One-on-one I expect him to take a totally different approach. Kellyanne Conway is going to work with him extensively in preparation.
 
Trump needs all of Ohio/Florida/Pennsylavnia.

I am hearing that they are going to pour lots of resources into NY. Seems...dumb.
 
Kellyanne Conway says she is working with Trump on debate prep toward the end of this video.

 
Listening to Conway on CNBC now. She is highly competent but I think Trump might have brought her in too late in the game. 70 days is perhaps not enough to regain ground in the key states. On the other hand, Conway says she is focused like a laser on OH/FL/PA/IA/NV/NC.

Should be interesting.
 
As Scythe and I have predicted, Trump is climbing again and Clinton is falling again. The newest polls including Johnson and Stein are showing a range of +1 to +7 for Clinton, although the +7 looks like an outlier. Gravis shows +1 Clinton, Reuters shows +3 Clinton, Rasmussen +4 Clinton.

There are still lots of undecided voters. I expect these voters to break toward Trump because there are social consequences for Trump support and none for Clinton support.

Also we have new FL polls showing an even race. One poll has Trump +1 and the other Clinton +2.

As of a week ago, Iowa is tied. Iowa has predicted the national popular vote winner in every election since 1988. Obama took Iowa by 7% and 5% in 2008 and 2012, respectively.

We need new Ohio and Pennsylvania polls.

I would also like to see Minnesota polling. Dems have won it every election since 1972. No one has polled it since April, and a poll late last year there showed Trump +3 over Clinton. It's possible Trump could flip it. The last Republican to win Minnesota was Richard Nixon in 1972.

If Trump tanks again, look for North Carolina and Georgia to flip to the Democrats for the first time in decades.
 
Trump now in the national lead.

Trump +5 in Iowa.

Feeling good about my Trump action.
 
waiguoren said:
Trump now in the national lead.

Trump +5 in Iowa.

Feeling good about my Trump action.
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Have you been following the lines on five dimes that have odds for what party will win each individual state? They have been up for months
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Have you been following the lines on five dimes that have odds for what party will win each individual state? They have been up for months
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Looking now. I think timing is key. Although a lot of these lines look enticing, I'm guessing they were cheaper not long ago. That said:

Republican wins NC +115 is enticing, Ohio +175, Nevada +260, Iowa +160, Florida +180 all look very interesting.
 
Still worried about Pennsylvania but other then that it looks good.
 
Looking nationally, head-to-head polls are still showing about 13% undecided.

I think most of Clinton's supporters don't really like her but instead choose her an as the anti-Trump. If you aren't turned off by Trump yet, you probably won't become more turned off over the next 60 days. So the 13% undecided are likely to break toward Trump.
 
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Sham5916910 said:
Trump +250 do i bite now?
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Not if you think Trump will commit another gaffe before the election. Every time this happens and his numbers dip, the line gets better.

But consider that his new campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, is constantly telling him to tone it down. He might not do anything controversial before the election.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Trump +250 do i bite now?
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I can get Trump to 270 without PA by giving him NC, IA, OH, FL, AZ, NM, NV and all of Nebraska's electoral votes. I can also imagine a scenario in which Trump wins the popular vote and loses the electoral college.
 
waiguoren said:
I can get Trump to 270 without PA by giving him NC, IA, OH, FL, AZ, NM, NV and all of Nebraska's electoral votes. I can also imagine a scenario in which Trump wins the popular vote and loses the electoral college.
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Im a brit so tailing you guys. Does +250 hold value? If i lose i lose just want a value bet
 
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