Political Betting Thread

[jerryisgood]

The gamesmanship has just been elevated. Shortly after posting this I see the news that Kasich is not competing in Indiana and throwing his support behind Cruz. If all Kasich's supporters turn out for Cruz in Indiana, Cruz will win there. But then most of Kasich's supporters probably don't like Cruz. Very interesting.

Curious to see if Trump can spin such a move as Cruz siding with the establishment. Kasich and Cruz will have to convince their own supporters to go out and vote for someone different than who they want to win, it's not easy to get such a large group of people to do such a thing. Very interesting indeed, but what a mess. If Trump wins, on top of all of the other negatives he has going for him, the Dem nominee is going to have a field day just pointing out the lengths his own party would go not to nominate him. Oy.

 

[waiguoren]

Curious to see if Trump can spin such a move as Cruz siding with the establishment. Kasich and Cruz will have to convince their own supporters to go out and vote for someone different than who they want to win, it's not easy to get such a large group of people to do such a thing. Very interesting indeed, but what a mess. If Trump wins, on top of all of the other negatives he has going for him, the Dem nominee is going to have a field day just pointing out the lengths his own party would go not to nominate him. Oy.

Agree that it won't be easy to coordinate Cruz and Kasich supporters. They're totally different kinds of people.

Don't think most voters will care that the Republican Party tried to dump Trump, especially because it's an anti-establishment year.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Odds on Dem RI and the PA spreads are both even now. Advice?

 

[jerryisgood]

Odds on Dem RI and the PA spreads are both even now. Advice?

Last I looked Bernie was up in Rhode Island and closing the gap in Connecticut. Clinton is leading PA. If you can get a good line on Bernie plus points I'd eye that for RI considering he was up a few hours ago.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Check this out. I currently have a .95u freeroll on Trump Maryland point spread -14.5%. I also have a 1.55u freeroll on field +15%.

Now, with how the bets are worded, if Trumps wins Maryland by between 14.5%-15.0%, BOTH of my bets will hit and I will win 10.7u!

As for the actually spread side that wins, you guys think it's over or under?





I also have a 2u freeroll on Bernie +20% in Maryland and 2.15u to win 4.64u on Bernie +24.5% in Maryland

 

[waiguoren]

Check this out. I currently have a .95u freeroll on Trump Maryland point spread -14.5%. I also have a 1.55u freeroll on field +15%.

Now, with how the bets are worded, if Trumps wins Maryland by between 14.5%-15.0%, BOTH of my bets will hit and I will win 10.7u!

As for the actually spread side that wins, you guys think it's over or under?





I also have a 2u freeroll on Bernie +20% in Maryland and 2.15u to win 4.64u on Bernie +24.5% in Maryland

MD is my home state. It's a closed primary, which is worse for Trump than an open primary. I have a cousin in MD who wants to vote for Trump but can't because he's registered independent. I think there are plenty like him.

If I had to guess, I'd say he wins it by 15% or less. Only two polls show >15%, and polling tends to be biased in Trump's favor because his people don't turn out as much as Cruz/Kasich's. But this is purely a guess and I will not be surprised if I'm wrong.


I'm interested in talking about PA on the GOP side. What a crazy set of rules.

 

[waiguoren]

BTW, Jae, to consistently win betting those spreads you probably have to become an expert of polling methods and the demographics of the states in question. I wish I had time to do that.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

MD is my home state. It's a closed primary, which is worse for Trump than an open primary. I have a cousin in MD who wants to vote for Trump but can't because he's registered independent. I think there are plenty like him.

If I had to guess, I'd say he wins it by 15% or less. Only two polls show >15%, and polling tends to be biased in Trump's favor because his people don't turn out as much as Cruz/Kasich's. But this is purely a guess and I will not be surprised if I'm wrong.


I'm interested in talking about PA on the GOP side. What a crazy set of rules.

What do you think will go down in PA for GOP?

 

[Jae Gibbz]

BTW, if you really don't think Trump wins Maryland by 15%, 5d has no at +220 right now

 

[waiguoren]

What do you think will go down in PA for GOP?

Maybe it's not that interesting from a betting perspective, since Trump should just dominate. I think we can be pretty confident that Trump -15% will hit.

But it's a crazy state because there are actually two separate votes. On the first ballot the voter marks his preferred candidate. The votes are tallied and 17 delegates are bound to the winner. But then there is a second ballot in which the voters choose three unbound delegates per congressional district (54 total). The ballot does not denote the preference of the delegate. I just listened to an interview with a PA delegate who supports Cruz and said she will vote for Cruz at the convention even if Trump gets 100% of the popular vote. Of course, she hasn't been elected yet, but how many voters are actually going to research these people and their preferences?

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Maybe it's not that interesting from a betting perspective, since Trump should just dominate. I think we can be pretty confident that Trump -15% will hit.

But it's a crazy state because there are actually two separate votes. On the first ballot the voter marks his preferred candidate. The votes are tallied and 17 delegates are bound to the winner. But then there is a second ballot in which the voters choose three unbound delegates per congressional district (54 total). The ballot does not denote the preference of the delegate. I just listened to an interview with a PA delegate who supports Cruz and said she will vote for Cruz at the convention even if Trump gets 100% of the popular vote. Of course, she hasn't been elected yet, but how many voters are actually going to research these people and their preferences?

Damn, -15.5% is -425


That is pretty weird, though, about PA

 

[waiguoren]

BTW, if you really don't think Trump wins Maryland by 15%, 5d has no at +220 right now

Heh, there's a reason I bet MMA and not politics. I feel the latter favors the polling/demographic experts. I have over 10 years experience studying and competing in the former.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Heh, there's a reason I bet MMA and not politics. I feel the latter favors the polling/demographic experts. I have over 10 years experience studying and competing in the former.

lol that's funny. I, who just started about to seriously learn politics about a few months ago, bet on it, though... lmao

 

[waiguoren]

Heh, there's a reason I bet MMA and not politics. I feel the latter favors the polling/demographic experts. I have over 10 years experience studying and competing in the former.

Must have been high when I wrote this. I have never competed in MMA, only trained in it. Don't want to be an internet badass.

So now Kasich is telling his supporters to vote for him in Indiana. Looks like the "alliance" is already in peril.

 

[waiguoren]

BTW, Jae, I don't mean to discourage you from betting politics. It looks like you've being doing really well at it. I definitely have seen some wacky lines such as the market overreactions to Wisconsin and NY that I predicted earlier in the thread. There's money to be made.

 

[jerryisgood]

So it's a kinda-sorta-almost alliance. Kasich won't hold any events or actively campaign in Indiana, but he urges any supports he has there to still vote for him. Cruz's camp said they won't tell the voters who to vote for, only where they are spending their resources. It seems the real reason for announcing the alliance was to let Super PACs know how to best spend their money and where to run ads and who against since they can't collaborate with Super PACs otherwise. Cruz's Super PAC, for example, will run negative ads against Kasich in Indiana but won't in New Mexico. It allows his Super PAC to go all in on the ads in Indiana which could benefit Cruz being within striking distance of Trump in early polls.

Trump and Cruz both need Indiana.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

BTW, Jae, I don't mean to discourage you from betting politics. It looks like you've being doing really well at it. I definitely have seen some wacky lines such as the market overreactions to Wisconsin and NY that I predicted earlier in the thread. There's money to be made.

It's alright man. I have been doing okay. Definitely in the positive, but not by too much. I've just been really good/lucky with the line movement haha. It probably hasn't been worth my time, but at least I've been learning stuff!

 

[waiguoren]

As predicted, the Trumpening is upon us.

 

[waiguoren]

I re-ran the numbers considering tonight's results and I have Trump reaching 1214 even without any of the 146 uncommitted delegates. I think can get 23 of the remaining delegates.

 

[jerryisgood]

I re-ran the numbers considering tonight's results and I have Trump reaching 1214 even without any of the 146 uncommitted delegates. I think can get 23 of the remaining delegates.

This is NOT including the unbound delegates in PA as well? 20-someodd PA delegates who are unbound have said that they plan on supporting Trump on the first ballot while another 15 or so said they would support whomever wins their district, which is likely Trump. Two have said they would support Cruz with others undecided.

Also, in your calcs, are you giving him Indiana?