Political Betting Thread

Assuming Elizabeth has a fairly low ceiling (NB this is my biggest assumption and one I am not sure of), the field is so divided that a unifier who stands out on the surface features (appearance, articulateness) and can bridge some of the policy gaps (e.g., "Medicare for All who want it") is in prime position to open up a lead and never look back. Buttigieg is the only one I can see pulling it off. Can you imagine anyone else pulling way ahead and never looking back?

I think Sanders and Warren both have a much higher ceiling than you think, and their (imo, wrongly) perceived electability issues is all that's holding more people back from their side. They can absolutely keep winning people over on policy and integrity, and they represent a version of the left that's either going to be the mainstream now or later. It could be similar to Trump in 2016, where despite the initial logic at the time, he actually spoke to the republican base better than Cruz/Jeb/Rubio/etc. As the electability issues go too, Sanders is pretty clearly only second to Biden right now in general election polling, so it'll be interesting to see how the media covers that if Biden starts averaging below first place.

We can agree to disagree on this. But I think it's naive to assume voters will flock to a currently second tier choice when Biden falls and others drop out, if there are already other frontrunners they can get behind who they can push ahead.
 
I think Sanders and Warren both have a much higher ceiling than you think, and their (imo, wrongly) perceived electability issues is all that's holding more people back from their side. They can absolutely keep winning people over on policy and integrity, and they represent a version of the left that's either going to be the mainstream now or later. It could be similar to Trump in 2016, where despite the initial logic at the time, he actually spoke to the republican base better than Cruz/Jeb/Rubio/etc. As the electability issues go too, Sanders is pretty clearly only second to Biden right now in general election polling, so it'll be interesting to see how the media covers that if Biden starts averaging below first place.

We can agree to disagree on this. But I think it's naive to assume voters will flock to a currently second tier choice when Biden falls and others drop out, if there are already other frontrunners they can get behind who they can push ahead.

I think Sanders has a low ceiling. There are big chunks of the Democratic base that hate his guts---especially middle-aged women who think he somehow harmed Hillary Clinton. I know some of these people personally and I see their ilk on Twitter. They rationalize away their opposition but I believe it really just comes down to the Clinton thing. At the same time, he also has a higher floor than any other candidate.

I agree that perceived "electability" issues are part of the reason for his low ceiling.

I am not sure about Elizabeth's ceiling. Her candidacy is the biggest X factor for me and her revival from the dead has been the only big surprise for me so far. She is also the only candidate I can see preventing the Buttigieg train from leaving the station. That's because she can undermine Buttigieg's support among the "policy wonk" voters.
 
Looks like the dem lead keeps widening - https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/31/politics/trump-democrat-matchups-analysis/index.html

This is among the widest general election polling numbers I've seen recently, but most polling's showing an even bigger gap than Trump had with Clinton at this point in the 2016 race. Only two incumbents in the past ~70 years or so were behind at this point in time (Carter, Obama), and Obama was ahead in some of those polls, unlike Trump. The generic ballot is pretty bad for Trump too, with dems still averaging around +10.

It's going to be a historic achievement if Trump overcomes these numbers. Which means something major probably has to happen for him, or he might get crushed.
 


Wow, this is absurd, even by the standards of the squad. Its lucky for the dnc most americans dont pay much attention to this kind of stuff, but likely independent voters do. It was a tactically genius move to make them the face of the democrats.

Omar wants un to take over southern border security. Loon beyond parody.
 
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Assuming Elizabeth has a fairly low ceiling (NB this is my biggest assumption and one I am not sure of), the field is so divided that a unifier who stands out on the surface features (appearance, articulateness) and can bridge some of the policy gaps (e.g., "Medicare for All who want it") is in prime position to open up a lead and never look back. Buttigieg is the only one I can see pulling it off. Can you imagine anyone else pulling way ahead and never looking back?

Imo its either biden, and if, or more likely, when his dementia can no longer be ignored, warren is the favoured replacement.

As a long shot hitlery 'the epstein' killton :p might think she can swoop in, if biden drops out.

I think buttigieg can get some traction if he can stand out at the next debate and when more no hopers drop out.

Btw bidens poll numbers holding up surprisingly well, i think he can take the primary if he wins iowa and nh, which is good as he will get ravaged in the general as he is clearly unfit to be president.

Btw i saw a video where he stated 'if u like what u see vote for me, if not, vote for the other guy'. he dngaf at this point, and is just dialling it in.
 
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Imo its either biden, and if, or more likely, when his dementia can no longer be ignored, warren is the favoured replacement.

As a long shot hitlery 'the epstein' killton :p might think she can swoop in, if biden drops out.

I think buttigieg can get some traction if he can stand out at the next debate and when more no hopers drop out.

Btw bidens poll numbers holding up surprisingly well, i think he can take the primary if he wins iowa and nh, which is good as he will get ravaged in the general as he is clearly unfit to be president.

Btw i saw a video where he stated 'if u like what u see vote for me, if not, vote for the other guy'. he dngaf at this point, and is just dialling it in.

I think there's absolutely zero chance Hillary comes in. The nominee is gonna be one of the current top 5 or 6. A coworker of mine firmly believes Michelle Obama will suddenly jump in the race... not gonna happen lol. They had plenty of time to enter over Biden (who announced relatively late) if they were ever considering it.

Buttigieg just can't stand out on the stage, and that's the problem. He hasn't shown any willingness to do anything but play it safe. Sure that appeals to some people, but his polling shows it's not working enough.

Biden's currently in VERY tight races in both Iowa and NH, despite polling better nationally. He still hovers around 30% in most national polls, but I still firmly believe there's gonna be a breaking point. He can't constantly keep making a fool out of himself and keep up. Remember the first debate where people first saw him truly stumble was less than 3 months ago, and Iowa's still 5 months away.

Remember there's also a chance another candidate wins even if Biden maintains his current numbers. Depends where the dropouts' supporters flock to. He has a ~30% plurality, nowhere near a majority. Bernie had more than 30% in 2016 before the primaries started.
 
^ i agree by and large, but bernie will not be allowed to be the nominee. The rules are if no-one gets a majority in 1st round, then super delegates step up, and its good bye bernie (biden can also be stiffed in this process), and hello warren, the woman who spent her life pretending to be something she was not, which defines her perfectly, and what makes her the establishment choice. She will become whatever they want her to be.
 
Current betfair odds:

Warren 3.0
Biden 4.2
Bernie 7.6
Harris 9.0
Buttigieg 18.5

£1.27 million matched.

Warren's been getting bet pretty hard over the last couple of weeks, not a lot of change in the polls for her last month, I assume a lot of the interest is a fade of biden along with the media cementing her position as one of the leading contenders amongst the mainstream.
 
^ If no-one has a clear majority at the time of the conference, the super delegates will give it to her. Biden is clearly shot, and on top of that, his own party has turned on Obama, and it looks like Obama will not back him either which is really cold as Biden is running on a Obama v2 platform, really weird shit going on the dnc.
 
Eh, I think it’s pretty similar to the 2015-2016 Republican primary, there is just no top tier candidates like Trump (although most people thought differently at the time, prolly still do now). Biden is similar to Bush as he is what the base wants but isn’t talented enough to be president. Cruz is like Bernie and Warren, both at the extremes of their party but no shot in a general election. Harris is like Rubio as sort of a moderate candidate and what the party wants as their future face (although Kamala is pandering to the extreme left and will shift right on policies soon to win the moderates). Pete is a more charismatic Kasich. Beto is like Christie, way overhyped by the media and not talented enough to stand a chance.

You take Trump out of the Republican race, I think Rubio wins. Trump took a bunch of his voters and he had no path after Trump started rolling.
Do you now see why I think the dynamics of this race are very complicated? Leading the pack we have a very weak front-runner with a ~10% lead, a populist candidate who won't drop below 18% but who is clashing constantly with the the party chiefs and MSM (which most Democrats trust), a female who has copied most of the populist's policy positions and is selling herself as the MSM-friendly version of him. Far down below we have the 50-something dark-skinned prosecutor who has garbled her message and the 37-year-old articulate one who hasn't caught fire.

Throw in proportional delegate allocation and the potential for a Biden drop out and things get really interesting.

Also, how are you feeling about your Harris pick? On the bright side, I think she will recover somewhat. On the other hand, I think she can't win.

My current bets:

April 15 Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
August 31 Peter Buttigieg +2000 $500
 
Do you now see why I think the dynamics of this race are very complicated? Leading the pack we have a very weak front-runner with a ~10% lead, a populist candidate who won't drop below 18% but who is clashing constantly with the the party chiefs and MSM (which most Democrats trust), a female who has copied most of the populist's policy positions and is selling herself as the MSM-friendly version of him. Far down below we have the 50-something dark-skinned prosecutor who has garbled her message and the 37-year-old articulate one who hasn't caught fire.

Throw in proportional delegate allocation and the potential for a Biden drop out and things get really interesting.

Also, how are you feeling about your Harris pick? On the bright side, I think she will recover somewhat. On the other hand, I think she can't win.

My current bets:

April 15 Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
August 31 Peter Buttigieg +2000 $500

I’m still liking my Harris pick, everything’s moving the way I’d expected so far except Warren (a lot of that is because of her easy debate stage competition). Thursday will be a huge debate as this is the first one with all the real candidates on stage at the same time and will be the first one many people start paying attention toward politics.

I don’t think Warren or Sanders can win as no one with an extreme progressive stance will win (although one will be the final candidate left). Biden is done and literally losing his mind, people are just starting to see that as he continues to stumble when speaking. So you got either Pete, Booker, or Harris as the moderate/progressive. I see Harris winning that competition especially in this party where there is a push for minority’s. Neither Booker or Pete has shown anything special and when there’s no stand out talent, it’ll go to what the pandering part of the party wants.

I already knew about Harris’ faults prior to her running and she hasn’t done anything to damage herself yet.
 
I’m still liking my Harris pick, everything’s moving the way I’d expected so far except Warren (a lot of that is because of her easy debate stage competition). Thursday will be a huge debate as this is the first one with all the real candidates on stage at the same time and will be the first one many people start paying attention toward politics.

I don’t think Warren or Sanders can win as no one with an extreme progressive stance will win (although one will be the final candidate left). Biden is done and literally losing his mind, people are just starting to see that as he continues to stumble when speaking. So you got either Pete, Booker, or Harris as the moderate/progressive. I see Harris winning that competition especially in this party where there is a push for minority’s. Neither Booker or Pete has shown anything special and when there’s no stand out talent, it’ll go to what the pandering part of the party wants.

I already knew about Harris’ faults prior to her running and she hasn’t done anything to damage herself yet.
Mr. Joe,

As before, there are major differences between how you and I see the race. That said, it's refreshing to see an unorthodox view like yours. Thanks for posting.
 
Mr. Joe,

As before, there are major differences between how you and I see the race. That said, it's refreshing to see an unorthodox view like yours. Thanks for posting.

Likewise man. We’ll see what happens and nothing has shifted me. The only big damage I’ve seen to any candidate thus far is to Biden, the media is trying to keep him relevant and the favorite but it will reach a point where they can no longer keep him there else they deteriorate their reputation.
 
Sorry for late prediction:
1. Biden looks terrible
2. Warren has weak performance
3. Harris/Booker have strong performance and work together.
4. Castro gets a nasty one liner on someone

Would have went more in-depth but really busy at work and life.
 
Shaky start for biden, some stumbling and noticeably ignoring the question about latino immigration. castro just had a good line about biden taking the credit for obama's work but not answering criticism's.
 
My thoughts from last night

Biden - god awful. He's just completely unprepared to talk about finer policy details. Some of his answers were totally incoherent and he looked really bad at times when talking about race and immigration. Of course, every media outlet lists him as a winner because he didn't stumble as consistently and badly as before.

Bernie - throat thing def hurt him lol. Otherwise he was alright, seemed to win a lot of the back and forths he had. But I wish he chimed in more than he did. But with his voice completely shot maybe it was better to not overdo it.

Warren - great performance. Disappeared a little bit in the second half, but not totally her fault there. Never really stumbled and was well-prepared with everything, while still sticking out with her policy positions.

Harris - I really don't know. It wasn't... bad? But I can't remember her saying anything actually substantive. She just focused on Trump and delivered one-liners here and there. Almost seemed kinda high too.

Buttigieg - Came across as pretty annoying imo. Aside from speaking on military matters, his forceful middle-ground approach is going to do exactly what it's been doing for him (nothing)

O'Rourke - By far his best performance, as (unfortunately) helped by a mass shooting in his city. Skeptical of his staying power though, still.

Booker - Pretty solid all around. Never seemed to give a bad answer, just still missing that extra step to stand out and climb toward the top

Yang - Pretty decent performance. I think he got people's attention here more than he has before. Any more attention he gets seems to be a good thing for him. I like that a lot of media sites list him as a loser (they enjoy scoffing at his policies), despite him always beating a majority of establishment guys they love.

Klobuchar - God she sucks. She's not exciting anyone. Needs to get off the stage.

Castro - Great job imo. I think the first punch at Biden was a little weird, it was a pretty small point that Biden wasn't even totally wrong about. But the second punch about him with Obama struck really hard, and it was a great moment. Definitely liked him firing back at Pete's calls for civility, too.
 
My abbreviated debate analysis:

Harris was horrible.

Biden had a pulse for the first hour and for some reason his gaffes in that hour (e.g., referring to Sanders as "the president") were not as noticeable. Overall a bad performance though, especially the Afghanistan/Iraq answer and the early childhood education answer.

Sanders's hoarseness was a real problem. Also for some reason he came off as more unhinged than usual.

Buttigieg was strong.

Elizabeth was strong, again.

Klobuchar was forgettable.

Booker is doing the best he can plus he's dominating the mic. The unfortunate thing for him is he's unelectable.

Castro took a huge risk and probably damaged himself.

==========


Overall thoughts about the race: Harris might be dying off prematurely. On one hand, I would really like her to put up a strong fight and therefore take from Elizabeth and Biden. OTOH if she flops completely and drops out, this makes more room for Buttigieg. Imagine a four-person debate with three career politician septuagenarians and a 38-year-old articulate, handsome war veteran.

Of course, the candidate I'm most concerned about is Elizabeth.


My current bets:

April 15 Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
August 31 Peter Buttigieg +2000 $500
 
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