Political Betting Thread

[rev0lver]

Overall thoughts about the race: Harris might be dying off prematurely. On one hand, I would really like her to put up a strong fight and therefore take from Elizabeth and Biden. OTOH if she flops completely and drops out, this makes more room for Buttigieg. Imagine a four-person debate with three career politician septuagenarians and a 38-year-old articulate, handsome war veteran.

Of course, the candidate I'm most concerned about is Elizabeth.

Personally, I think if Harris drops out it'll be more of a gain for Warren or possibly Booker. As much as I don't agree with the nature of this, you can't underestimate the female&minority aspects that are a draw here before policy differences come into play.

What do you mean about being concerned about Warren though? Or do you just mean in relation to your bets

 

[rev0lver]

Harris 13 points down in Iowa

I know Iowa's the important thing here, but should be worth noting that the most recent California poll showed Harris as a distant 4th with 6%. Candidates getting into tight races in their own states isn't abnormal, but that number is pretty bad. Even Beto is putting up much more respectable numbers than this in Texas polls.

 

[Joedaman55]

Sorry, little late on debate analysis. I could only watch 2 hours of it because it became way too boring to watch past that.

Biden - Did okay, probably his best performance but he is still showing signs of him losing his ability to think quickly.

Harris - Did okay until she laughed at her own joke, terrible idea with her annoying laugh. She seems to be faking a style to get more voters which isn’t a good sign.

Castro - Looked really good at times and really bad. Hit Biden pretty good but doubt it will do anything.

Bernie - Same ole same, we all know what Bernie is and no debate is going to change that.

Beto - Best performance yet but his brand is pretty much done in most places.

Booker - Good performance but nothing that will shift voters. Good VP candidate.

Warren - Pretty bad as she uses analogies way too much. Think she’s at her ceiling.

Amy - Brutal, from wardrobe, hand motions, to many other things, extremely weak candidate.

Yang - Jokes are starting to fall flat, think he’ll keep a massive cult following but won’t be a popular candidate.

Pete - Pretty bad, I never get excited when he talks. Incredible boring and tends to preach too much. I think he’s at his ceiling.


I don’t see a strong candidate in this pool which likely means Biden unless something big changes. The lack of improvement from candidates from July to now has been terrible and none of them besides Bernie and Biden have much charisma.

 

[rev0lver]

Warren - Pretty bad as she uses analogies way too much. Think she’s at her ceiling.

Totally with you on most of your post, but I'm sorta curious about people's takes on Warren that night. I saw a good handful of media outlets list Warren as a loser in the debate. Yet the post-debate polling overwhelmingly shows her as the winner. At a personal level I'm not totally on the Warren train, but her messaging is clearly resonating with people more than expected.

 

[waiguoren]

Personally, I think if Harris drops out it'll be more of a gain for Warren or possibly Booker. As much as I don't agree with the nature of this, you can't underestimate the female&minority aspects that are a draw here before policy differences come into play.

What do you mean about being concerned about Warren though? Or do you just mean in relation to your bets

I perceive Elizabeth as the biggest threat to my bets.

On a Harris drop out helping Elizabeth: that was exactly my point. It's why I've been hoping for a while that Harris would come back after near suicide in the August debate. Unfortunately I think she was even worse in the recent debate. I knew she was a bad candidate overall, but I didn't think she was this bad. Still hoping for her to come back.

My other point was that if Harris collapses, then we'll have likely have some debates early next year with only four candidates: Biden/Sanders/Elizabeth/Buttigieg. I think this format would be very beneficial for Buttigieg as the 38-year-old going up against the grandparents.

My current bets:

April 15 Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
August 31 Peter Buttigieg +2000 $500

 

[Roads55]

I perceive Elizabeth as the biggest threat to my bets.

On a Harris drop out helping Elizabeth: that was exactly my point. It's why I've been hoping for a while that Harris would come back after near suicide in the August debate. Unfortunately I think she was even worse in the recent debate. I knew she was a bad candidate overall, but I didn't think she was this bad. Still hoping for her to come back.

My other point was that if Harris collapses, then we'll have likely have some debates early next year with only four candidates: Biden/Sanders/Elizabeth/Buttigieg. I think this format would be very beneficial for Buttigieg as the 38-year-old going up against the grandparents.

My current bets:

April 15 Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
August 31 Peter Buttigieg +2000 $500

man I'm finding in hindsight that when kamala was a big fav like 2 months ago, that was one of the best bets of the year to bet against her. crazy the hype that was generated and how that influenced the odds largely because of her attack on biden.
her campaign (odds wise) so far is 1 reason i'm super excited about the elections next year, the market is so irrational and volatile right now, surely reverberations of trump and the inaccuracies media had about his support in 2016 and also the connotations that had with brexit, but also the seemingly bizarre + large field of terrible candidates, and ideological split of the left leaves a LOT of opportunity for smart bettors.
and ofc it's not just her, biden in 4 months has gone from 3.0 to 7.0 to around 4.0 now, bernie from 4.0ish to 11.5 down to 7-8.0, fucking o'rourke was like 6.0 at 1 stage lmao.

 

[Roads55]

re last debate: didn't watch it that close and i was under the influence so large pinch of salt needed, but i thought buttigieg came across pretty well, concise, honest and genuine (compared to most at least), bernie did ok, maybe a little angry, biden fucking abysmal but that hasn't really affected his numbers that much so far incredibly, he does come across as naively like-able though i think, harris came across drunk at the start, making jokes about trumps dick, but did better after, still first instinct was that she had kind of given up a bit and had a no fucks given attitude hence the dick jokes, as joedaman said she is just too fake. latest polls have her dropping even more, i think that's nearly a wrap for her victory chances. i don't really remember much of warren so can't of been that good but not terrible either. this debate has had less of an impact than the others on the odds.

 

[Roads55]

as the field narrows however the stakes become higher to perform and a disastrous debate performance can still spell a lot of trouble for backers of whoever. obviously biden is most vulnerable to this and the gargantuan effort from the media to write of his mental state, constant gaffe's and inability to realize wtf he is saying is a train wreck waiting to happen. the question is will he be able to hold on to his lead for long enough before the national election starts. is he fit enough mentally and physically to continue and finish this long drawn out battle royale of a nomination process, before the real war vs trump even officially starts. and that's before we even get into his policies and actual substance of his politics.

I don't see it myself but the biggest worry is that his support still remains strong and the lower poll numbers i expected have failed to materialize so far. why is this happening? the most obvious reason is that the sheep of the dnc are simply buying into the narrative pushed by the media and even bidens own wife that he is an extremely imperfect candidate who has the best chance of beating trump even though a lot of his voters like other candidates better,while also brushing away many of the criticisms as just attacks from trump supporters and proclaiming his gaffe's as severely overblown and downplaying every mistake and excusing his "verbal misstatements" to trumps flat out lies.
like how the fuck is a guy who lies because he is so senile and can barely put a coherent sentence together let alone an answer to a debate question, how in a month of sundays is that a better choice of running the country than a despised guy who lies on purpose to do what politicians do!? by their own logic both are abysmal candidates.

the media narrative around biden is wearing thin in many places . but the question is how how long can this charade go on before a noticeable chunk of his supporters realize it's time to pull the plug and abandon ship? with such a long way to go in the race. it seems almost inevitable that this will happen to some degree, and then the question will be where are those voters most likely going to go and if discernible what part of his demographic are most likely to abandon ship first. identifying the demographics where he most loses support could be a good signal to bet one of the others.
this being said, he could win and maybe his senile nature is a little overblown (it aint), but it just feels like a giant mistake for the democrats to "revert to the norm" after a global and local political paradigm shift after that failed them last election, and amongst a rapidly widening gulf between moderates and the next generation of dems in the progressive youth leaves people wondering what long term damage electing him him do to their party.
to me the remaining debates represent opportunity for sanders/warren and the rest i guess to solidify their position to become the chosen candidate and a opportunity for biden to cling on for dear life in the hopes that the wheels don't fall of before the finish line.

 

[waiguoren]

I agree with pretty much everything you wrote, Mr. @Roads55 .

My belief is that policy preference does not motivate most voters. I don't believe that most people telling pollsters they prefer Biden are doing so because they like his collection of more "moderate" policy proposals. I believe the support has to do with factors such as familiarity, a desire for a return to the pre-Trump era, and a vague feeling that Sanders and his imitators are too "extreme". All of these factors originate in one form or another from MSM propaganda and DNC programming.

Note for example that a huge part of Elizabeth's constituency is female ex-Hillary Clinton supporters who dislike Sanders for "what happened" in 2016. Many of these people would not vote for Sanders even if his policy platform were identical to Elizabeth's and Elizabeth dropped out.

It's important to understand how much power the MSM has over the mindset of most Democrats.

The core reason behind my Sanders bet from March is I perceived Biden as a very weak front-runner. I perceived that the anti-Sanders types would be split between Biden and many of the other candidates. Sanders got something like 40% of the vote in 2016. This time, he can probably win with 25%.

 

[waiguoren]

Added:

Peter Buttigieg to be Democratic nominee +2026 $493.58

My current bets (Democratic nominee only):



April 15 Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
August 31 Peter Buttigieg +2000 $500
September 20 Peter Buttigieg +2026 $493.58

 

[trident]

I am really not seeing what you are seeing in Pete

 

[longway]

as the field narrows however the stakes become higher to perform and a disastrous debate performance can still spell a lot of trouble for backers of whoever. obviously biden is most vulnerable to this and the gargantuan effort from the media to write of his mental state, constant gaffe's and inability to realize wtf he is saying is a train wreck waiting to happen. the question is will he be able to hold on to his lead for long enough before the national election starts. is he fit enough mentally and physically to continue and finish this long drawn out battle royale of a nomination process, before the real war vs trump even officially starts. and that's before we even get into his policies and actual substance of his politics.

I don't see it myself but the biggest worry is that his support still remains strong and the lower poll numbers i expected have failed to materialize so far. why is this happening? the most obvious reason is that the sheep of the dnc are simply buying into the narrative pushed by the media and even bidens own wife that he is an extremely imperfect candidate who has the best chance of beating trump even though a lot of his voters like other candidates better,while also brushing away many of the criticisms as just attacks from trump supporters and proclaiming his gaffe's as severely overblown and downplaying every mistake and excusing his "verbal misstatements" to trumps flat out lies.
like how the fuck is a guy who lies because he is so senile and can barely put a coherent sentence together let alone an answer to a debate question, how in a month of sundays is that a better choice of running the country than a despised guy who lies on purpose to do what politicians do!? by their own logic both are abysmal candidates.

the media narrative around biden is wearing thin in many places . but the question is how how long can this charade go on before a noticeable chunk of his supporters realize it's time to pull the plug and abandon ship? with such a long way to go in the race. it seems almost inevitable that this will happen to some degree, and then the question will be where are those voters most likely going to go and if discernible what part of his demographic are most likely to abandon ship first. identifying the demographics where he most loses support could be a good signal to bet one of the others.
this being said, he could win and maybe his senile nature is a little overblown (it aint), but it just feels like a giant mistake for the democrats to "revert to the norm" after a global and local political paradigm shift after that failed them last election, and amongst a rapidly widening gulf between moderates and the next generation of dems in the progressive youth leaves people wondering what long term damage electing him him do to their party.
to me the remaining debates represent opportunity for sanders/warren and the rest i guess to solidify their position to become the chosen candidate and a opportunity for biden to cling on for dear life in the hopes that the wheels don't fall of before the finish line.

I rate Trump's abilities to manipulate his opponents very highly. He made the dnc's lunatic fringe, collectively known as the squad, the face of the dnc; now he dismantling Biden. I am pretty sure the latest 'controversy' about Trump's phone call to Ukraine was used as bait to draw attention on Biden's own dodgy past with them. If Biden wins the nomination it will serve as potent ammunition fo him during the general, and the dnc and the legacy media will continue to taint their brands by trying to defend him. He is already fighting the GE. If Warren starts pulling ahead, expect further tricks like this from trump focused on her. This man is a maestro.

If you dont believe that the Ukraine controversy was not set-up as bait, its understandable, but consider this, the 'whistle-blower' who fed the story to the press did not have direct knowledge of the conversation, nor did he come across the info during the normal course of his duties. To me, it looks very much like they knew this guy was a stooge and he was fed a rumour to bait the media into covering it, and suddenly it's now Biden who is feeling the heat.

 

[rev0lver]

I rate Trump's abilities to manipulate his opponents very highly. He made the dnc's lunatic fringe, collectively known as the squad, the face of the dnc; now he dismantling Biden. I am pretty sure the latest 'controversy' about Trump's phone call to Ukraine was used as bait to draw attention on Biden's own dodgy past with them. If Biden wins the nomination it will serve as potent ammunition fo him during the general, and the dnc and the legacy media will continue to taint their brands by trying to defend him. He is already fighting the GE. If Warren starts pulling ahead, expect further tricks like this from trump focused on her. This man is a maestro.

If you dont believe that the Ukraine controversy was not set-up as bait, its understandable, but consider this, the 'whistle-blower' who fed the story to the press did not have direct knowledge of the conversation, nor did he come across the info during the normal course of his duties. To me, it looks very much like they knew this guy was a stooge and he was fed a rumour to bait the media into covering it, and suddenly it's now Biden who is feeling the heat.

Lol Biden's nowhere near a given to win the nomination. This would be a massive risk for Trump over a somewhat flimsy charge of wrongdoing by the Bidens in Ukraine (and something Trump's probably seen more conflicts of interest within his own family). That would be insanely stupid for anyone to do at this point in time. The "direct knowledge" point is pretty moot considering it would not have gotten to this level if the details were made up/rumored. And now Trump and his surrogates have been flailing around in the media confirming and denying everything. This stuff isn't planned, it's incompetence that's being spun to look tactical every time it happens. The reality is still that Trump is looking worse in the 2020 race and his numbers are struggling in states that no republican should have to fight in.

Really if this was a strategy to turn attention to a potentially shady Biden issue, he could've just brought that up without going through a roundabout way that makes him look guilty of something similar or worse. Everything that Trump's team and his media networks have done over the past few days is damage control, not a planned attack.

 

[Joedaman55]

Totally with you on most of your post, but I'm sorta curious about people's takes on Warren that night. I saw a good handful of media outlets list Warren as a loser in the debate. Yet the post-debate polling overwhelmingly shows her as the winner. At a personal level I'm not totally on the Warren train, but her messaging is clearly resonating with people more than expected.

She reminds me a lot of Palin, she has the PTA board look going for her which might win the Democratic Primary but lose hard in the general election (similarly to what happened with McCain). Based on what I hear from people, women seem to think she’s alright (she’s popular with teachers). The brothers don’t like her and they’ll vote Trump over her and they don’t like him. Mexican buddy says whatever, he’s a Beto fan.

Most Democratic friends think they’re fucked with the current candidates and don’t see one that has a chance against Trump.

 

[longway]

Lol Biden's nowhere near a given to win the nomination. This would be a massive risk for Trump over a somewhat flimsy charge of wrongdoing by the Bidens in Ukraine (and something Trump's probably seen more conflicts of interest within his own family). That would be insanely stupid for anyone to do at this point in time. The "direct knowledge" point is pretty moot considering it would not have gotten to this level if the details were made up/rumored. And now Trump and his surrogates have been flailing around in the media confirming and denying everything. This stuff isn't planned, it's incompetence that's being spun to look tactical every time it happens. The reality is still that Trump is looking worse in the 2020 race and his numbers are struggling in states that no republican should have to fight in.

Really if this was a strategy to turn attention to a potentially shady Biden issue, he could've just brought that up without going through a roundabout way that makes him look guilty of something similar or worse. Everything that Trump's team and his media networks have done over the past few days is damage control, not a planned attack.

If you want to believe that Guiliani and Trump are stupid, thats up to you. In the meantime, despite 90% negative press coverage, Trump’s poll numbers continue to improve. He doesn't have to be popular to win, just more popular than the alternative. And the alternative is Biden or Warren. Im going to max bet Trump winning 2020, he clearly understands whats required to win.

Update:

Trump’s going to release the transcript of the call. He suckered them all. This is going to taint Biden and demonstrate to the public he (Trump) is the target of a witch hunt.



Update 2

As soon as dems announced impeachment to begin. He released this ad. It was all a set up. After Trump releaes the transcript the dems and media are going to look like desperate lunatics.



Trump is defining the terrain of the upcoming battle. Trump has led the dems into the impeachment ravine, they have no choice but to fight it out from there now.

 

[longway]

Just put 5U on Trump not being impeached by end of his first term at -140. What a bargain. Will had another 5U if the line improve to even odds.

 

[rev0lver]

If you want to believe that Guiliani and Trump are stupid, thats up to you. In the meantime, despite 90% negative press coverage, Trump’s poll numbers continue to improve. He doesn't have to be popular to win, just more popular than the alternative. And the alternative is Biden or Warren. Im going to max bet Trump winning 2020, he clearly understands whats required to win.

Update:

Trump’s going to release the transcript of the call. He suckered them all. This is going to taint Biden and demonstrate to the public he (Trump) is the target of a witch hunt.



Update 2

As soon as dems announced impeachment to begin. He released this ad. It was all a set up. After Trump releaes the transcript the dems and media are going to look like desperate lunatics.



Trump is defining the terrain of the upcoming battle. Trump has led the dems into the impeachment ravine, they have no choice but to fight it out from there now.

I mean, we'll see what happens tomorrow, but I wouldn't put it past Trump to do this out of stupidity or a lack of realization on what he did wrong. Remember this is a guy who still hasn't figured out how tariffs and basic principles of trade work despite his advisors trying to explain it to him. Also possible that they withhold the release and this was just a posturing attempt. The dots seem really easy to connect here, so I'm not sure what Trump's defense is going to be beyond technicalities. Keep in mind, too, that the obstruction issues can still be an easy case for impeachment. There doesn't need to be one specific charge involved.

Pelosi and Trump had a phone call earlier where Trump reportedly wanted to work something out. That doesn't sound like someone who's not worried.

I was never looking at an impeachment bet before, because I didn't think Pelosi would budge from her position. But if she's on board now, it seems pretty likely.

 

[longway]

I mean, we'll see what happens tomorrow, but I wouldn't put it past Trump to do this out of stupidity or a lack of realization on what he did wrong. Remember this is a guy who still hasn't figured out how tariffs and basic principles of trade work despite his advisors trying to explain it to him. Also possible that they withhold the release and this was just a posturing attempt. The dots seem really easy to connect here, so I'm not sure what Trump's defense is going to be beyond technicalities. Keep in mind, too, that the obstruction issues can still be an easy case for impeachment. There doesn't need to be one specific charge involved.

Pelosi and Trump had a phone call earlier where Trump reportedly wanted to work something out. That doesn't sound like someone who's not worried.

I was never looking at an impeachment bet before, because I didn't think Pelosi would budge from her position. But if she's on board now, it seems pretty likely.

Well, lets see. I could provide a number of counterpoints, but lets not get into that. We are betting on our reads, i obviously want my reads to be right, and likewise you.

 

[Roads55]

yeah will be interesting to see what happens when the manuscript is released. Biden drifting pretty hard in the last few hours and also yesterday briefly beore reverting to the earlier price. warren getting bet hard also. she's 2.3 now, biden around 4.8

 

[longway]

Anonymous Ukraine whistle blower has been identified.