Political Betting Thread

[rev0lver]

BTW one line saw on 5 dimes was Trump winning the presidency and popular vote at +450 (weirdly winning the PV without the presidency is +250, I think that should be +1000 or something), and that is so tempting. I have a hypothesis that Trump would have either won or been very close to winning the popular vote if it wasn't for pussygate, I think it made a lot of his voters stay home, his hustle on the home stretch mitigated the fallout from pussygate, but he had no hope of fully recovering from that fiasco, so I think there is value in that line. I think I may stick a unit on it, more if the democrats go for impeachment proceedings.

Funny because I think the total opposite. The way I see it, a significant amount of Clinton voters either stayed home or voted 3rd party because they couldn't bring themselves to care about Clinton and thought she'd win anyway. Even if they hated Trump, they thought the election was already decided, and it wasn't worth going to vote for someone they didn't believe in. And this is why the polls were supposedly "wrong", but actually probably more accurate of how people felt. Clinton had the email scandal in full swing right before the election too, but I think it was more than that. I fully believe that if there was some sort of runoff election a day after election day 2016, after people realized Trump actually won, Clinton would've won out easily.

I think taking Trump on the popular vote is wasted money, too. Anti-Trump fervor hasn't slowed down, and will likely energize voters even more in big blue states even if it's a safe state. If Trump wins re-election, it's once again going to be on edging out a few swing states.

 

[Joedaman55]

Ah I get you. The more casual voter gets their news from TV or cable imo. So, if they don't highlight the negatives about a candidate, they will remain unaware. Harris needed the debates to have any chance of capturing some of his voters and building support off those performances, and that is much harder now. The polls I saw that Biden remained unchanged post debates and Harris dropped a few percent. She is a distant 4th, I cant see how she can make a breakthrough now.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/



He is hopeless, but they all are. And he has the name recognition. Harris has blown up imo. So who is left if not him? Got to be Warren or Sanders now or a dark horse or surprise entry. The dnc have such a weak field as they have all coddled by sycophants in the media (except sanders), they do trump a massive favour by not weeding out or toughening up these losers beforehand. Harris thought she was a top tier candidate when she is actually relatively mediocre, and needs a lot of work before she is ready for the big time.

I think Sanders would be Trump's toughest opponent debate wise, but he doesn't have a wide appeal, and the dnc hate him and he has plenty of baggage from his past as a commie.

The more casual voters I talk to watch local news over national news (they hate the biases in national news). It is still really early, most people don’t pay attention toward primary politics until December or January. Also, they hate the debates with like 20 candidates (Republicans did that last time having 20 candidates on stage and it was extremely boring). Only one poll out which is the Politico one, I don’t find that one of much value. The Economist, Fox News and CNN ones are generally decent.

At these early stages I’m looking for memorable moments that hold my attention days after the debate. Only big things I can remember without rewatching are Biden is old and slow minded, Obamacare is viewed a disaster by many Democrats, Kamala is good at arguing, Beto is such a weak politician, Bernie is looking older and seems a little crazier with his speech patterns, Castro is all about Latinos, Booker’s all about tasting kool aid. Everything else seems old news including whatever bus thing Kamala schooled Biden on.

 

[rev0lver]

Only big things I can remember without rewatching are Biden is old and slow minded, Obamacare is viewed a disaster by many Democrats

Tbh I don't think most of them see it as a "disaster", but rather a small progression that didn't do nearly enough. It's generally viewed favorably, but a politician saying "let's just keep Obamacare" isn't very attractive to voters when it's a mere baseline of what they want to see.

 

[trident]

Wouldn't have said this a month ago but am favoring Warren at the moment. Partly do to a process of elimination: Biden has shown time and again he can not close on the national stage and he is going to fail again. Sanders has age and centric Dem issues. Harris is hated by progressives and wont recover. Buttigieg is a gay Catholic with "butt" in his name. Tulsi is too young.

But Warren: woman. Nuff said there. Dems and their identity politics need this. Progressive. Will satisfy the Sanders voters. Not too progressive and can be reeled in. Will satisfy the centrics. And finally, Trump will trash her and wont look good for him to those who dont already support him. She can play the sober intelligent while Trump resorts to dog whistles many in the country dont like.

Personally I dont like her. I doubt she can defeat Trump, or any of the Dems can really, but looking at the primary voting base, I'm starting to favor her as their pick.

 

[longway]

The more casual voters I talk to watch local news over national news (they hate the biases in national news). It is still really early, most people don’t pay attention toward primary politics until December or January. Also, they hate the debates with like 20 candidates (Republicans did that last time having 20 candidates on stage and it was extremely boring). Only one poll out which is the Politico one, I don’t find that one of much value. The Economist, Fox News and CNN ones are generally decent.

At these early stages I’m looking for memorable moments that hold my attention days after the debate. Only big things I can remember without rewatching are Biden is old and slow minded, Obamacare is viewed a disaster by many Democrats, Kamala is good at arguing, Beto is such a weak politician, Bernie is looking older and seems a little crazier with his speech patterns, Castro is all about Latinos, Booker’s all about tasting kool aid. Everything else seems old news including whatever bus thing Kamala schooled Biden on.

The debates had an affect on Harris's standing. It's Biden and Warren at the front. As things stand it will be a Biden and warren ticket. Biden for the moderates and Warren to placate the 'progressives'.

If Biden has a health scare or a major meltdown then, of course, it will change the race considerably.

I don't know how to post a screenshot, but this poll shows Harris dropping like a stone post 2nd debate and Biden a strong front runner, followed by Warren. I'm feeling good about my bets right now. Note the same poll shows democrat primary voters think that warren has the best policy ideas.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3637

 

[trident]

@longway Be careful with that Biden bet. Remember who he is. He is a straight line corporatist and it's not a secret. He consistently reveals himself with each public appearance and the base is going to fade from him. I really dont think the man can keep it in the jar long enough to seal the deal. If this were a fight, he would be Cerrone, doing great until the big fight that matters. Time and again....

 

[longway]

Funny because I think the total opposite. The way I see it, a significant amount of Clinton voters either stayed home or voted 3rd party because they couldn't bring themselves to care about Clinton and thought she'd win anyway. Even if they hated Trump, they thought the election was already decided, and it wasn't worth going to vote for someone they didn't believe in. And this is why the polls were supposedly "wrong", but actually probably more accurate of how people felt. Clinton had the email scandal in full swing right before the election too, but I think it was more than that. I fully believe that if there was some sort of runoff election a day after election day 2016, after people realized Trump actually won, Clinton would've won out easily.

I think taking Trump on the popular vote is wasted money, too. Anti-Trump fervor hasn't slowed down, and will likely energize voters even more in big blue states even if it's a safe state. If Trump wins re-election, it's once again going to be on edging out a few swing states.

Pussygate had a huge effect on his numbers. Off memory, immediately after his poll numbers dropped to low 30s or mid 30s anyway. Then of course Comey the grandstanding weirdo played his role. It's just my gut feeling that Trump would have won the PV without Pussygate, especially after Comey's intervention. So many people voted for Clinton bc they hated Trump or voted for Trump bc hated Clinton. It's hard to get people to pull the lever for Trump after a scandal like he had as they are only voting bc they hate Clinton.

The DNC called for the protest Trump surge in 2018, it's hard to get people to do it a 2nd time in 2020 without a compelling reason. The democrats offer nothing beyond hatred of Trump, they won't get another surge based on it in 2020 imo, especially with a poor presidential candidate, as long as the economy is good.

 

[longway]

@longway Be careful with that Biden bet. Remember who he is. He is a straight line corporatist and it's not a secret. He consistently reveals himself with each public appearance and the base is going to fade from him. I really dont think the man can keep it in the jar long enough to seal the deal. If this were a fight, he would be Cerrone, doing great until the big fight that matters. Time and again....

My main plays are actually Warren and Buttigieg, I also have a small Harris lay bet. But I expect the odds for the first 2 to shorten and last to get wider so I can cash out my bets, they are exchange bets so I can sell my position at profit (or loss) whenever.

Rejigged as Buttigieg dragging me down. Pulled out of my bet on him and more on Warren and Biden.

 

[trident]

My main plays are actually Warren and Buttigieg. But I expect the odds for both to shorten so I can cash out my bets, they are exchange bets so I can sell my position at profit (or loss) whenever.

If you picked Warren awhile ago, I say good foresight. I thought Biden would be able to cinch it but the fucking guy just can not close. He is legit out of touch. There are those people in your life that have enough to keep giving another chance but it just never works out. With Obama, he was at least dating someone you liked, so it held for a bit, but as a solo artist, he cant do it.

Sanders is mirage. I just cant accept that this crooked ass DNC is going to let that happen, despite whatever sheep herding he did in 16. Also his age is a factor.

Warren is performing much better than I expected. She has some strikes against her but so far she hasn't grabbed anyone's pussy. Leaning hard in her direction right now.

 

[trident]

Oh shit Bernie is on JRE today.

 

[waiguoren]

The debates had an affect on Harris's standing. It's Biden and Warren at the front.

? The average of polls says differently.

 

[rev0lver]

Real interesting results from this post-debate poll. Note though that this is a poll about the DEBATE and not about their primary choice. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/elizabeth-warren-debate-poll-winner_n_5d48aedde4b0244052dfdc81

Warren was the biggest winner, with Buttigieg, Booker, Sanders, Castro, and Yang seeing pretty positive reactions. Biden was a wash on favorable/unfavorable. Harris was somewhat a wash but had the second most worsened opinions of the pool. Delaney was overwhelmingly negative with 2% improved opinions vs 32% worsened opinions. Surprisingly to me though, Gabbard was solidly in the middle of the pack next to Biden.

Imo this somewhat confirms what I've been thinking this race. People respond well to the progressive platforms and reject the centrist, status-quo positions of Delaney, Hickenlooper, and Ryan. But Biden maintains the lead because the perceived electability is so important to democrats against Trump.

Should point out though that De Blasio was solidly negative as well. I think he's just super unlikeable no matter what his politics are lol

 

[longway]

? The average of polls says differently.

Do you have the link for that page? I would love to look at that more closely. How do you insert screengrabs? You can see that Harris has dropped significantly even here. Yes, Bernie is ahead of Warren, but the overall picture is still accurate. Biden support firming up post-debate. He looked like he could walk and chew gum at the same time more often than not, so he got the pass.

 

[Roads55]

wow, Warren has gone favorite.

 

[Roads55]

Do you have the link for that page? I would love to look at that more closely. How do you insert screengrabs? You can see that Harris has dropped significantly even here. Yes, Bernie is ahead of Warren, but the overall picture is still accurate. Biden support firming up post-debate. He looked like he could walk and chew gum at the same time more often than not, so he got the pass.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e..._democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

 

[waiguoren]

Do you have the link for that page? I would love to look at that more closely. How do you insert screengrabs? You can see that Harris has dropped significantly even here. Yes, Bernie is ahead of Warren, but the overall picture is still accurate. Biden support firming up post-debate. He looked like he could walk and chew gum at the same time more often than not, so he got the pass.

I wasn't disputing Harris's drop---I pointed out that drop in a previous exchange in this thread.

The plot I posted comes from this page. To insert screengrabs, I download the image and then upload to imgur.

I just didn't think it was accurate to write "it's Biden and Warren at the front". Sanders is the clear 2nd place candidate and has been for nine months. He's also in great position to win in Iowa and New Hampshire. I agree about Biden support firming up post-debate.

My current bets:

Placed April 15 | Bernard Sanders to be Democratic nominee |+410| Risk: $2439.02
Placed May 19 | Peter Buttigieg to be Democratic nominee |+550| Risk: $1818.18

 

[Roads55]

bernie's odds have been getting bet, he's down to the low 9.*'s I wonder if his appearance on JRE will have any impact at all on them short term.

 

[Roads55]

A couple of euro sites have warren at 4.5 (+350) still if anyone wants a freeroll on the exchange.

 

[rev0lver]

bernie's odds have been getting bet, he's down to the low 9.*'s I wonder if his appearance on JRE will have any impact at all on them short term.

The line movement I've seen in this race tells me internet-focused people are definitely having an impact. So Bernie on JRE could do something. Seeing Yang at the #6 favorite, above someone like Booker, tells me they're looking at a separate world than the reality.

 

[longway]

At what point will it become impossible to ignore that Biden is a check that can't be cashed?