Political Betting Thread

rev0lver said:
I disagree. Bernie's clashes with Ryan and Hickenlooper, Warren's clashes with Delaney, Marianne's surprising coherence on reparations and the Flint water crisis (minus the dark psychic forces), and Pete's comments on Afghanistan all stood out to me pretty strongly. Definitely some big reactions from Twitter too.
Click to expand...
rev0lver said:
I disagree. Bernie's clashes with Ryan and Hickenlooper, Warren's clashes with Delaney, Marianne's surprising coherence on reparations and the Flint water crisis (minus the dark psychic forces), and Pete's comments on Afghanistan all stood out to me pretty strongly. Definitely some big reactions from Twitter too.
Click to expand...

Interesting, none of that stood out to me. Read some stuff on reddit but it’s tough to view if anything changed between most people (most people that blog or post on politics are anchored into their opinion already, one reason why this forum is better I’d because it’s about making cash rather than changing ideology).

Couple people I talked to liked Delaney and one did Bullock, the rest thought it was a disaster for all of them.
 
Joedaman55 said:
Interesting, none of that stood out to me. Read some stuff on reddit but it’s tough to view if anything changed between most people (most people that blog or post on politics are anchored into their opinion already, one reason why this forum is better I’d because it’s about making cash rather than changing ideology).

Couple people I talked to liked Delaney and one did Bullock, the rest thought it was a disaster for all of them.
Click to expand...

Just going off the consensus I'm seeing across the spectrum, from media reactions to twitter/reddit - seems like Warren and Sanders are getting the biggest praise, with an edge to Warren. Buttigieg came across well but no one thought he stood out any more or less than before. People liked that Delaney and Bullock stepped up a little bit and gave us a better picture of who they are, but their messaging itself fell flat. Lots of positive reactions to Williamson but no one really taking her seriously with her other.... issues. Consensus on the worst performances seems to be with O'Rourke and Klobuchar. I expect them to be out sooner than later, but O'Rourke's apparently already qualified for the third round with his heavy early funding.
 
rev0lver said:
Just going off the consensus I'm seeing across the spectrum, from media reactions to twitter/reddit - seems like Warren and Sanders are getting the biggest praise, with an edge to Warren. Buttigieg came across well but no one thought he stood out any more or less than before. People liked that Delaney and Bullock stepped up a little bit and gave us a better picture of who they are, but their messaging itself fell flat. Lots of positive reactions to Williamson but no one really taking her seriously with her other.... issues. Consensus on the worst performances seems to be with O'Rourke and Klobuchar. I expect them to be out sooner than later, but O'Rourke's apparently already qualified for the third round with his heavy early funding.
Click to expand...

O’Rourke has been terrible, he was not ready for this stage and this killed his brand for other government jobs.

Klobuchar has been terrible, she is more nervous than first year interns when she’s on the debate stage.
 
I am putting 3u on tulsi predebate. It looks like she will try to raise her profile by attacking Harris.

It is the right strategy and she is an excellent candidate. Should see some movement in her line after the debate.

If she pulls it off, it will make me a quick profit.

Update

There is very little liquidity on her line on betfair. So the idea won't work.
 
Last edited:
My thoughts were correct, tulsi took it to kamala, its a pity I couldn't profit. Liquidity for us politics is terrible in the UK.
 
longway said:
My thoughts were correct, tulsi took it to kamala, its a pity I couldn't profit. Liquidity for us politics is terrible in the UK.
Click to expand...

Tulsi dunked on Kamala hard. Kamala had her moments but looked a little vulnerable when challenged like that
 
My thoughts on tonight:

Inslee looked very good despite probably not going very far.
Tulsi could've spoken up more at times, but looked fantastic most of the times she did.
De Blasio had his moments but just comes off as unlikeable, idk, his taxation tagline probably isn't the right way of going about this.
Kamala looked great at times and awful at times, it's hard to predict what will result from this.
Gillibrand I thought had a good night, but is just doing nothing to stand out beyond the challenge to Biden.
Castro looked okay but mostly forgettable.
Booker was totally forgettable. I thought he'd come out and do better, but he's gonna keep getting lost in the mix.
Yang forced the UBI message into every response, but had one of the best (if not the best) closing statements of the night.
Bennet sucks and shouldn't be on the stage lol.
Biden was god awful. Handled attacks poorly, while the few good moments will likely be forgotten. He just seems so oddly unprepared as if he thinks he's the destined candidate.

Biggest winners: Inslee, Gabbard, and maybe Yang did the right things to pique interest?
Biggest losers: Biden, Bennet
 
anyone got a link to the 2nd debate? i cant find the full video anywhere. what a sorry state of affairs the US media is in if they don't make this available straight away in full to everyone, i had trouble finding yesterdays one also until i found a link some random guy put up with 300 views. pathetic
 
Holy smokes, what a debate, far better than yesterday. I’m not sure who gets better off of this, could go so many different ways.

Most memorable things of the debate was Biden stating Obamacare wasn’t a mistake and Biden stuck in the past.

Kamala could have won or lost, looked way to lawyerlike and I’m not sure what people will think.

Biden took a beat down, he looked slow, stubborn, and a disaster against someone smart.

Booker, Castro, and Tulsi had good attacks and lines but their really bland on their country direction and lack of identity. They won’t go up.

Everyone else was forgettable and too similar like the people were last night.

Biden people will shift somewhere but I have no clue where, prolly still Kamala. Warren is still too left, Pete doesn’t seem to have a good, clear direction, no one else really has a shot. I mean Biden just looked so bad and there is no good moderate candidate I could see them shifting too.
 
Roads55 said:
anyone got a link to the 2nd debate? i cant find the full video anywhere. what a sorry state of affairs the US media is in if they don't make this available straight away in full to everyone, i had trouble finding yesterdays one also until i found a link some random guy put up with 300 views. pathetic
Click to expand...

CNN is being annoying af and only making it available via their website and apparently not making it available immediately. Keep searching on Youtube and you'll prob find a random upload eventually
 
The democrat high command must be in panic mode. They have no-one who is likable and sane who isn't close to senile.

Yang and Gabbard bode well for the future, and they are not party stooges, but at the moment its a shambles.

Buttigieb is looking better in comparison.

Harris is condescending, but will toe the party line. Warren, who I thought was the dnc favored candidate, has gone too far left to pivot to the center later IMO, but her stances are relatively ok with the primary base.

Still a good time to put some money on Buttigieg, the odds on him will surely get shorter.

Big winner is trump, definitely going big on him.
 
Joedaman55 said:
Kamala could have won or lost, looked way to lawyerlike and I’m not sure what people will think.

Biden took a beat down, he looked slow, stubborn, and a disaster against someone smart.

Biden people will shift somewhere but I have no clue where, prolly still Kamala. Warren is still too left, Pete doesn’t seem to have a good, clear direction, no one else really has a shot. I mean Biden just looked so bad and there is no good moderate candidate I could see them shifting too.
Click to expand...

It's actually insanely weird seeing some of the media reactions to this. I'm seeing a lot of "Biden looked strong" and "Biden was a winner tonight". I don't get it. I'll wait to see more non-media reactions, but to me, it seems like the most positive argument you could make was that he did as poorly as the first debate.

Totally agree with you on Kamala, it was an odd night for her. Could just net zero movement.
 
rev0lver said:
It's actually insanely weird seeing some of the media reactions to this. I'm seeing a lot of "Biden looked strong" and "Biden was a winner tonight". I don't get it. I'll wait to see more non-media reactions, but to me, it seems like the most positive argument you could make was that he did as poorly as the first debate.

Totally agree with you on Kamala, it was an odd night for her. Could just net zero movement.
Click to expand...

Oh 100% agree, I’m watching CNN and thinking what are they smoking. Biden was a mess and you put him one on one with someone sharp he will get absolutely schooled.

A lot of Warren love too, lol, she hasn’t debated anyone good yet. Castro was the best competition but he was focused on boosting himself off of Beto. The second night had much stronger debaters and once people get aggressive with her, she’ll start looking bad and doing something dumb (similarly to the dna test).
 
longway said:
The democrat high command must be in panic mode. They have no-one who is likable and sane who isn't close to senile.

Yang and Gabbard bode well for the future, and they are not party stooges, but at the moment its a shambles.

Buttigieb is looking better in comparison.

Harris is condescending, but will toe the party line. Warren, who I thought was the dnc favored candidate, has gone too far left to pivot to the center later IMO, but her stances are relatively ok with the primary base.

Still a good time to put some money on Buttigieg, the odds on him will surely get shorter.

Big winner is trump, definitely going big on him.
Click to expand...

I sort of think the same about buttigieg but his stagnating performance in the polls are making me hold off, he seems to get a lot of coverage compared to his poll numbers, it's almost as if the dnc see him as a fail safe/fallback candidate if their preferred ones just fail to perform and attract votes and momentum of the candidates they don't want to win. sanders consistent poll numbers make me think he's a lot more likely to shorten than pete as they are almost the same price atm.

harris is now drifting fairly substantially although she's still favorite and interestingly that hasn't made the other candidates odds shorten to compensate...yet.
 
biden odds shortening.. from what ppl are saying about the debate it seems likely his poll numbers will continue to fall making this odds movement tempting to place a lay bet.
 
hmm didn't actually realize biden has gone up slightly in the polls recently, that explains it somewhat but, I'm seriously questioning the accuracy of them from what ppl are seeing in biden atm.
 
^ its fubar so I don't pay too much attention any more. Fwiw I think Boris must brexit soon to save the conservative party and his career, so that's where my money would go, the odds are pretty good, but its so hard to predict.
 
longway said:
^ its fubar so I don't pay too much attention any more. Fwiw I think Boris must brexit soon to save the conservative party and his career, so that's where my money would go, the odds are pretty good, but its so hard to predict.
Click to expand...

yeah, im trying to just scalp the market atm but seems like a lot of the interest is undecided and waiting. I think there will be a point where one of these prices will be Gigantic value, and it could be very briefly before the odds disappear as developments happen. worth keeping a close eye on imo.
 
a predicted 40% tariff on exports of lamb from wales is worrying a lot of welsh farmers in the result of a no deal, this could be a sizable blow to the leave movement in wales which had a small majority to for brexit originally. getting a new deal with other countries would take a long time,, bojo would need to placate the farming community and the wider rural community in wales with some sort of rebate or something but any such promises are likely to be empty on substance especially with the proposed brexit date so close. the rural community being extremely tight knit in wales and having extremely negative views of the conservative government under thatcher after many mining communities were devastated in the 80's. a loss of leave support from wales would make england the ONLY country in the UK that still wants too which would put even more pressure on the tories getting a no deal through. crazy times.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,049
Messages
55,463,669
Members
174,786
Latest member
JoyceOuthw

Share this page

Back
Top