Political Betting Thread

[rev0lver]

^ I think you are wrong. Look at his latest tweet storm on Cummings. Now, instead of Cummings getting media time attacking his handling of the border, the focus is on Baltimore. Cummings is now playing defense, and the media looks ridiculous as it tries to play the race card yet again. He controls their messaging.

But you're assuming there's some sort of majority outside his base who disagree with the media here. You're free to see the issue however you want of course, but this kind of stuff energizes minority voters even more. He got mad at Cummings and wanted to talk some shit. He's not detracting from the border issues, he's just adding another issue to hurt himself.

 

[longway]

But you're assuming there's some sort of majority outside his base who disagree with the media here. You're free to see the issue however you want of course, but this kind of stuff energizes minority voters even more. He got mad at Cummings and wanted to talk some shit. He's not detracting from the border issues, he's just adding another issue to hurt himself.

Yes, but its not an assumption. Cummings and the dnc in general are losers in this exchange. Calling him a racist for the zillionth time is not going to change anyone's opinion about him at this stage, its baked in.

 

[longway]

I think I will cash out my position dnc presidential nominee after the 2nd debate. Currently at nearly 30% profit, but I made a lay bet against Biden, which worries me now.

I think its between Warren and Biden. Perhaps Buttieg.

 

[waiguoren]

Four new polls out. Three polls (Harris, Emerson, Politico) showing Sanders surging or holding strong. One poll (Quinnipiac) showing a decline. He's now the unequivocal 2nd place candidate. As a Sanders bettor, this would concern me somewhat leading into the debates---the poor performers would be tempted to develop attacks against him---but the new polls just came out today and the debate is tonight. There just isn't enough time for these candidates to construct effective attacks against him.

That said, I still predict that multiple moderate candidates tonight (e.g., Hickenlooper, Delaney) will train fire on Sanders on the Medicare for All issue. I'm happy about that, because this will force CNN to give lots of time for Sanders to respond. He can't lose in those exchanges, because he is very sharp on that issue. I suppose they might attack him on another issues (e.g., tuition-free college) with more success.

As I wrote in a previous post, I think tomorrow night is going to be disastrous for Biden. The wolves will be hungry and will go straight for his heart. I'm hoping it won't be too bad for him (I don't want him to die off just yet) but I fear it will be.



@SBJJ join us here if you have time.





My current bets:

Placed April 15 |..Bernard Sanders to be Democratic nominee.|+410| Risk: $2439.02
Placed May 19 |.Peter Buttigieg to be Democratic nominee......|+550| Risk: $1818.18

 

[trident]

Biden is toast imo. I favored him at the start but the guy just isnt a closer.

Think about his political career: he won his Delaware Senate seat at 29 and then his family died in a car accident.

He became Delawares guy but he has failed every single time on the national stage. He worked as Obama's VP simply because having an experienced politician in the west wing made people feel safe about the vote. But he didnt win that election, just one atom of the working molecule.

His age, his true lack of national charisma, and his relatively out of touch perspective is not going to be outweighed by whatever experience he brings to the job.

Expect Biden to flop.

The Dem caucus is likely to nominate a woman this year, expecting Harris or Warren to pull it out, and the game plan will be to try and get Trump to self destruct during the general and pickup the "disgusted" vote.

To be sure, this election, like the last one, will be decided on the disgust vote.

 

[trident]

Three new polls (Harris, Emerson, Politico )showing Sanders surging or holding strong. One poll
(Quinnipiac) showing a decline. He's now the unequivocal 2nd place candidate. This would concern me somewhat leading into the debates---the poor performers would be tempted to develop attacks against him---but the new polls just came out today and the debate is tonight. There just isn't enough time for these candidates to construct effective attacks against him.

That said, I still predict that multiple moderate candidates tonight (e.g., Hickenlooper, Delaney) will train fire on Sanders on the Medicare for All issue. I'm happy about that, because this will force CNN to give lots of time for Sanders to respond. He can't lose in those exchanges, because he is very sharp on that issue. I suppose they might attack him on another issues (e.g., tuition-free college) with more success.

As I wrote in a previous post, I think tomorrow night is going to be disastrous for Biden. The wolves will be hungry and will go straight for his heart. I'm hoping it won't be too bad for him (I don't want him to die off just yet) but I fear it will be.



@SBJJ join us here if you have time.





My current bets:

Placed April 15 |..Bernard Sanders to be Democratic nominee.|+410| Risk: $2439.02
Placed May 19 |.Peter Buttigieg to be Democratic nominee......|+550| Risk: $1818.18

It doesnt matter how well Sanders polls, the Dems wont allow him to walk off with the nomination.

 

[waiguoren]

Biden is toast imo. I favored him at the start but the guy just isnt a closer.

Think about his political career: he won his Delaware Senate seat at 29 and then his family died in a car accident.

He became Delawares guy but he has failed every single time on the national stage. He worked as Obama's VP simply because having an experienced politician in the west wing made people feel safe about the vote. But he didnt win that election, just one atom of the working molecule.

His age, his true lack of national charisma, and his relatively out of touch perspective is not going to be outweighed by whatever experience he brings to the job.

Expect Biden to flop.

The Dem caucus is likely to nominate a woman this year, expecting Harris or Warren to pull it out, and the game plan will be to try and get Trump to self destruct during the general and pickup the "disgusted" vote.

To be sure, this election, like the last one, will be decided on the disgust vote.

It doesnt matter how well Sanders polls, the Dems wont allow him to walk off with the nomination.

Harris is screwed. Her attack on Biden was a suicide bombing. Gabbard will probably go after her tomorrow night too.

Warren is in a stronger position, but the darker-skinned candidates can always pull out the "Pocohantas" card later on. She's also just not that exciting.

As for the DNC theory: what mechanism would the DNC use to deny Sanders? As I've been writing here for months, the rules favor him this time.

 

[trident]

Harris is screwed. Her attack on Biden was a suicide bombing. Gabbard will probably go after her tomorrow night too.

Warren is in a stronger position, but the darker-skinned candidates can always pull out the "Pocohantas" card later on. She's also just not that exciting.

As for the DNC theory: what mechanism would the DNC use to deny Sanders? As I've been writing here for months, the rules favor him this time.

My conspiratorial mindset is all I am basing it off of. I just dont see the Dems letting him take it. Hes not a Dem.

I agree with your assessment of the Dem women but when you scrap Biden and Sanders, its who is left.

 

[Joedaman55]

Predictions for debates

Main topics on public’s mind for these debates:
1. Mueller Investigation
2. Baltimore, poverty, and urban economics
3. Shootings and gun control

Night 1
Winners: No one, Pete will probably win the debate but no one will care because they’ll be bored out of their mind. Expect a kumbuya circle jerk about taxing corporations to help Baltimore and about how they hate Trump.
Losers: Again, probably everyone. This night feels predictable and boring. People don’t like that and someone from the second night will increase their numbers a little off Sanders and Warren. Pete’s will stay constant because the Mueller failure helps him as he doesn’t appear old and slower minded (I.e recency bias).

Night 2
Winner: Probably Kamala because her skills are dramatically improving and she’s working with some good psychologists. This will be an aggressive night and whoever picks on old Joe Biden will win. Tulsi will attack Kamala but I doubt people will care about Tulsi, Castro is a bit unpredictable and I expect him to pick on the weakest which will be Joe (add him to a winner).
Losers: Biden will lose more momentum as he will stumble, he is old and his mind is too slow to think creatively quickly. You’ll see a bunch of comparisons to him and Mueller from pundits with the constant statement “do we want someone like Mueller running against Trump”. The rest won’t matter although they’ll try to stand out (Gillibrand will probably come out strong but people will get annoyed of her at the end, could see her and Kamala going at it).

After the debates the news cycle will start focusing on whose statements got the most attention which will probably be Harris. Night 2 will be really interesting.

 

[rev0lver]

Biden is toast imo. I favored him at the start but the guy just isnt a closer.

Think about his political career: he won his Delaware Senate seat at 29 and then his family died in a car accident.

He became Delawares guy but he has failed every single time on the national stage. He worked as Obama's VP simply because having an experienced politician in the west wing made people feel safe about the vote. But he didnt win that election, just one atom of the working molecule.

His age, his true lack of national charisma, and his relatively out of touch perspective is not going to be outweighed by whatever experience he brings to the job.

Expect Biden to flop.

The Dem caucus is likely to nominate a woman this year, expecting Harris or Warren to pull it out, and the game plan will be to try and get Trump to self destruct during the general and pickup the "disgusted" vote.

To be sure, this election, like the last one, will be decided on the disgust vote.

Biden was chosen as Obama's veep BECAUSE he's an average white guy with a shaky political history. He could never stand on his own, he was just there to give some appeal to the remainder that Obama couldn't. Like Pence being an extremely likable guy to evangelicals to counter Trump's moral misdoings, but would crumble in a national race. All Biden's riding off of is his name recognition and the memory of relative-normalcy under Obama. He's going to constantly fumble all the way to Iowa

 

[rev0lver]

These debates are gonna be interesting. Tonight is pretty unpredictable with how relatively friendly this pool might be to each other. I can see some clashes between Beto and Pete happening. Will be really interesting to see if Warren and Sanders actually butt heads. I was concerned about them not making any waves without being able to go after Biden, but they can actually prop themselves up more against the other candidates with two voices to counter policy attacks by the others. They can effectively team up against moderates like Klobuchar and Hickenlooper, and it's hard to see them lose those battles in this pool.

Seems like Biden's camp says he'll be more aggressive in night 2. We'll see how that goes, but I don't expect him to look good. People like Harris are just so many levels above him in debate skills.

 

[waiguoren]

My conspiratorial mindset is all I am basing it off of. I just dont see the Dems letting him take it. Hes not a Dem.

I agree with your assessment of the Dem women but when you scrap Biden and Sanders, its who is left.

Buttigieg is also there, and I believe he has the ability to take off at any time, especially if Biden collapses. That's why I added the bet on him back in May.

Predictions for debates

Main topics on public’s mind for these debates:
1. Mueller Investigation
2. Baltimore, poverty, and urban economics
3. Shootings and gun control

Night 1
Winners: No one, Pete will probably win the debate but no one will care because they’ll be bored out of their mind. Expect a kumbuya circle jerk about taxing corporations to help Baltimore and about how they hate Trump.
Losers: Again, probably everyone. This night feels predictable and boring. People don’t like that and someone from the second night will increase their numbers a little off Sanders and Warren. Pete’s will stay constant because the Mueller failure helps him as he doesn’t appear old and slower minded (I.e recency bias).

Night 2
Winner: Probably Kamala because her skills are dramatically improving and she’s working with some good psychologists. This will be an aggressive night and whoever picks on old Joe Biden will win. Tulsi will attack Kamala but I doubt people will care about Tulsi, Castro is a bit unpredictable and I expect him to pick on the weakest which will be Joe (add him to a winner).
Losers: Biden will lose more momentum as he will stumble, he is old and his mind is too slow to think creatively quickly. You’ll see a bunch of comparisons to him and Mueller from pundits with the constant statement “do we want someone like Mueller running against Trump”. The rest won’t matter although they’ll try to stand out (Gillibrand will probably come out strong but people will get annoyed of her at the end, could see her and Kamala going at it).

After the debates the news cycle will start focusing on whose statements got the most attention which will probably be Harris. Night 2 will be really interesting.

Disagree on Night 1. Why wouldn't the "moderates" attack the "progressives" standing center stage? They are at serious risk of being disqualified from the next debates and need to improve their name recognition and will be desperate.

Pretty much agree on Night 2. Should be fireworks.

Will be really interesting to see if Warren and Sanders actually butt heads. I was concerned about them not making any waves without being able to go after Biden, but they can actually prop themselves up more against the other candidates with two voices to counter policy attacks by the others. They can effectively team up against moderates like Klobuchar and Hickenlooper, and it's hard to see them lose those battles in this pool.

Exactly what I wrote earlier. Night 1 should be Sanders+Warren vs the field. I think it will be much more entertaining than Night 1 last time (although the Spanish was pretty entertaining last time).

Seems like Biden's camp says he'll be more aggressive in night 2. We'll see how that goes, but I don't expect him to look good. People like Harris are just so many levels above him in debate skills.

Agree.

 

[Joedaman55]

Buttigieg is also there, and I believe he has the ability to take off at any time, especially if Biden collapses. That's why I added the bet on him back in May.



Disagree on Night 1. Why wouldn't the "moderates" attack the "progressives" standing center stage? They are at serious risk of being disqualified from the next debates and need to improve their name recognition and will be desperate.

Pretty much agree on Night 2. Should be fireworks.



Exactly what I wrote earlier. Night 1 should be Sanders+Warren vs the field. I think it will be much more entertaining than Night 1 last time (although the Spanish was pretty entertaining last time).



Agree.

I think all but three candidates in night 1 realize they have no shot at winning president so their game of winning the president is over. Their new game is to gain political power from this stage and in politics, gaining power normally is not done by attacking your peers especially when your peers view it as your sole intent is to damage their brand because you have no shot at winning.

Moderates will prolly attack and Pete may get the better end of something but I doubt anything will be memorable 60 minutes after the debate.

 

[waiguoren]

I think all but three candidates in night 1 realize they have no shot at winning president so their game of winning the president is over. Their new game is to gain political power from this stage and in politics, gaining power normally is not done by attacking your peers especially when your peers view it as your sole intent is to damage their brand because you have no shot at winning.

Moderates will prolly attack and Pete may get the better end of something but I doubt anything will be memorable 60 minutes after the debate.

That's an interesting perspective. Let's see who is right!

 

[Joedaman55]

Well, just finished watching the debate and I can’t think of one memorable thing anyone did. How on Earth can you beat Trump if you can’t create a memorable thing in a nationwide debate?

I thought there might be one thing from someone but it felt like a bunch of lawyers arguing words and no real changes. Bernie and the author lady are the only ones who came off authentic, unfortunately for them, Bernie just looked like a crazy old grandpa rambling about the good ole days (reminds me a lot of when Mr Burns ran for office in the Simpsons if you switch Bureaucrats and Corporations). The author lady seems nice but has zero direction and I don’t know what the heck she actually wants to do.

 

[rev0lver]

Well, just finished watching the debate and I can’t think of one memorable thing anyone did. How on Earth can you beat Trump if you can’t create a memorable thing in a nationwide debate?

I disagree. Bernie's clashes with Ryan and Hickenlooper, Warren's clashes with Delaney, Marianne's surprising coherence on reparations and the Flint water crisis (minus the dark psychic forces), and Pete's comments on Afghanistan all stood out to me pretty strongly. Definitely some big reactions from Twitter too.

 

[longway]

Wow, what a clown show. The democrats are in trouble.

Williamson was the best performer by far.

The centrist democrats are frozen out, that middle ground is occupied by Trump.

Biden - a frail old man - has to carry the torch for the moderates.

I think Buttieg turns out to be an astute betting pick.

 

[waiguoren]

Even if people go after Sanders/Warren on night 1, I think Sanders/Warren will form a "progressive alliance" and swat away the challenges without much trouble. Also, the more people go after Sanders, the more airtime he gets. Executing an anti-Sanders conspiracy would require isolating Sanders, but he'll be center-stage and offering a strong "progressive" contrast to his mostly "centrist" attackers.

I still predict that multiple moderate candidates tonight (e.g., Hickenlooper, Delaney) will train fire on Sanders on the Medicare for All issue. I'm happy about that, because this will force CNN to give lots of time for Sanders to respond. He can't lose in those exchanges, because he is very sharp on that issue. I suppose they might attack him on another issues (e.g., tuition-free college) with more success.

Disagree on Night 1. Why wouldn't the "moderates" attack the "progressives" standing center stage? They are at serious risk of being disqualified from the next debates and need to improve their name recognition and will be desperate.

Exactly what I wrote earlier. Night 1 should be Sanders+Warren vs the field. I think it will be much more entertaining than Night 1 last time (although the Spanish was pretty entertaining last time).

My current bets:

Placed April 15 | Bernard Sanders to be Democratic nominee |+410| Risk: $2439.02
Placed May 19 | Peter Buttigieg to be Democratic nominee |+550| Risk: $1818.18

 

[APras1428]

its not a conspiracy to say Dems wont let sanders win. It happened last time per wikileaks.

 

[trident]

its not a conspiracy to say Dems wont let sanders win. It happened last time per wikileaks.

I thought that was Putin