Political Betting Thread

rev0lver said:
He did this with wildly unpopular comments (from the perception of people outside his base) against congresswomen whose policies people generally like, even if their outspokenness is controversial.

Relying on constant pandering to your own base isn't smart politics. The people with these points of view are already going to vote for Trump, and it energizes the other side even more. I keep hearing about him playing 4D chess despite every sign pointing to him losing in a climate that an incumbent should usually win. If he actually wants to increase his support, he should be trying something more than keeping his guaranteed voters happy.
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I think you are way off base here. These guys push very unpopular policies eg ending border controls, free healthcare for illegals, crazy environmental regs, socialism etc. And they themselves, to any moderate democrat or independent, nucking futs.

They also hate the old guard in the dnc and want to push impeachment.

They are a gift that won't stop giving, after warren gets the nomination, they will make sure they will be front and center on a stage with her.
 
Pre-debate thoughts:

Feeling great about my Sanders and Buttigieg action. Biden has made a rebound, and his polling average is now back to where it was pre-launch. There's a 17+ % gap between #1 and #2 right now, so the desperate candidates at the debates (there will be many) will train their fire on Biden (#1) primarily and probably ignore #2 (Sanders/Warren) for the most part.

Even if people go after Sanders/Warren on night 1, I think Sanders/Warren will form a "progressive alliance" and swat away the challenges without much trouble. Also, the more people go after Sanders, the more airtime he gets. Executing an anti-Sanders conspiracy would require isolating Sanders, but he'll be center-stage and offering a strong "progressive" contrast to his mostly "centrist" attackers.

As for Biden...the more I think about it, the more I think he is going to take serious damage on July 31, worse than last time. I think he's going to be taking it from multiple angles (e.g., 1994 crime bill, bankruptcy bill) and from multiple candidates (probably Booker/de Blasio at least and maybe Harris again). The main issue is he's slower and "sleepier" than 2012 when he debated Ryan, so his responses won't be sharp.

Best case for me is that Biden takes damage and some minor "centrist" types like Ryan or Bennet or Hickenlooper pick up some of the slack. Right now the "progressive" wing is a bit too divided and Biden is almost monopolizing the "centrist" vote.

@Oblivian , how closely are you following these developments?

@HockeyBjj , this is a nice place to discuss the horse race. People here are actually risking money on their predictions.
 
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waiguoren said:
@Oblivian , how closely are you following these developments?

@HockeyBjj , this is a nice place to discuss the horse race. People here are actually risking money on their predictions.
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Very little. I've been way too busy lately. I'm barely even able to think about my MMA bets.
 
longway said:
I think you are way off base here. These guys push very unpopular policies eg ending border controls, free healthcare for illegals, crazy environmental regs, socialism etc. And they themselves, to any moderate democrat or independent, nucking futs.

They also hate the old guard in the dnc and want to push impeachment.

They are a gift that won't stop giving, after warren gets the nomination, they will make sure they will be front and center on a stage with her.
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Again, if you actually look at the data here it's not what you think. The green new deal and tougher environmental policies poll surprisingly positive. There's a wild disparity between what the Trump admin thinks about climate change and what the population thinks. The family separation policy is extremely unpopular, and the wall is still unpopular. Most of the "socialist" policies are pretty popular, while things like tax cuts for the rich are very unpopular.

Healthcare for illegals I guess is closer to 50/50, but it's a small part of much larger public healthcare plans, and of course we already provide them emergency services anyway with little protest. It's just hard for people to say yes to "free healthcare for illegals" as a single issue.

It's not like the old guard of the DNC is ultra popular. People hate establishment politics. That's sorta how we have Trump now.
 
^ his poll numbers have gone up after his attacks on the squad. I am not disagreeing with your point on the popularity of various dnc policy stances, but pointing out that this is trump's way of mitigating for that.

He is ensuring the public focus on the crazy train. This is where I think you are wrong, these guys are poison for the dnc, and trump has ensured that the dnc can never disavow them.

Here is Tlaib advocating for $20 minimum wage. These nuts will drown any positive message that the dnc wants to present to the public.



All 4 of these bubbleheads say crazy nonsense non stop. And they are attention whores, so this is what they live for.

I love how trump is already taking steps to counteract any future dnc strategy for the presidential campaign.

At plus odds the only reason I am not max bet on trump winning 2020 is that I have to wait 18 months to fully cash the bet.
 
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longway said:
^ his poll numbers have gone up after his attacks on the squad. I am not disagreeing with your point on the popularity of various dnc policy stances, but pointing out that this is trump's way of mitigating for that.

He is ensuring the public focus on the crazy train. This is where I think you are wrong, these guys are poison for the dnc, and trump has ensured that the dnc can never disavow them.

Here is Tlaib advocating for $20 minimum wage. These nuts will drown any positive message that the dnc wants to present to the public.



All 4 of these bubbleheads say crazy nonsense non stop. And they are attention whores, so this is what they live for.

I love how trump is already taking steps to counteract any future dnc strategy for the presidential campaign.

At plus odds the only reason I am not max bet on trump winning 2020 is that I have to wait 18 months to fully cash the bet.
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His approval has been trending about the same, it's about exactly where it was 2 months ago. There was like one poll that the media was citing last week showing a few points of a jump, despite the other polls showing stagnancy. His remarks toward the squad were popular within the republican party, but very unpopular overall.

There actually is sort of a decent reason for Tlaib's proposal. If the minimum wage kept up with inflation and productivity since the 1960's, it'd be close to $20/hr now, and possibly moreso in the 2020's. Obviously she isn't totally communicating this though, and it won't get much attention anyway. I expect $15/hr to be the platform in the meantime. The poison to the DNC is the old guard who don't even look toward that, and promise little to help the working class.

I have a $500 bet with my boss against Trump at evens, which is great because I don't have to tie my money up in the meantime lol.
 
^ I guess we see things very differently. I think trump is a sharp and elite player, happy to put my money on him all day long. His political IQ is second to none in my opinion. I think I will start accumulating money on trump on betfair exchange, the odds will hopefully shorten over the course of the year and I can cash out with some profit as we go along.

Here is Omar saying we should fear white men. I understand it has been deceptively edited., but the point is that they these 4 are pure gold for trump,'s chances.

https://nypost.com/2019/07/25/ilhan...f-white-men-than-jihadists-in-2018-interview/
 
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longway said:
^ I guess we see things very differently. I think trump is a sharp and elite player, happy to put my money on him all day long. His political IQ is second to none in my opinion. I think I will start accumulating money on trump on betfair exchange, the odds will hopefully shorten over the course of the year and I can cash out with some profit as we go along.
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I'm just saying like, personal politics aside, every bit of data we have is going against Trump right now. You can surely speculate about things, talk about election day bumps etc. There could be some major event between now and next November, too. But I can't imagine statisticians predicting a Trump win at this point. It would make no sense. Trump was freaking out on twitter today about a Fox News poll showing Biden with a 10 point lead over him, as if they're supposed to manipulate it to show Trump winning. Should also mention that all pollsters have shown the "generic democrat" option polling at least 5 points ahead of Trump for over a year.

Incumbency bumps are a real thing, but it's almost unheard of for a candidate/incumbent to poll this poorly with these approval ratings and win. IIRC Trump was actually polling better in 2016, and if you're looking to place bets, you can't pretend that 2016 was some kind of referendum based around edging out swing states while losing the popular vote. Whether his tactics appeal to you or not, there's no evidence that his tactics have done anything to help his numbers as president. And if we can go by the most recent election results, the democrats crushed it in 2018, only being held back by having very few senate races to contest.
 
I take the center position between you two fine gentleman. In my view Trump's position is not as weak as @rev0lver says and not as strong as @longway says. Barring a recession, I think Trump's position is just slightly stronger than in 2016. Let us not forget that he barely won in 2016. Candidates who are strong in the rustbelt (Buttigieg, Sanders, Klobuchar, Ryan) would give him a lot of trouble. Candidates with weakness in the rustbelt (Harris) would lose to him.
 
waiguoren said:
I take the center position between you two fine gentleman. In my view Trump's position is not as weak as @rev0lver says and not as strong as @longway says. Barring a recession, I think Trump's position is just slightly stronger than in 2016. Let us not forget that he barely won in 2016. Candidates who are strong in the rustbelt (Buttigieg, Sanders, Klobuchar, Ryan) would give him a lot of trouble. Candidates with weakness in the rustbelt (Harris) would lose to him.
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I am not saying it is guaranteed. But his idea to make these 4 the 'face' of the democrats is a way counter the very issues you raise. It is a sign of strategic thinking and shows me he has the vision and determination to win again.

Getting involved in the dnc spat was a bold move and went against conventional wisdom, but can only benefit him in the months to come.

Of course, if the economy comes off the rails, he is toast.

But, I am loving the plus odds on him now.

Perhaps you guys don't agree, but I was very impressed by his ability to see an opportunity on the fly and improvise a way to capitilize on it in real time. He is always looking for an edge over the opposition.
 
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longway said:
I am not saying it is guaranteed. But his idea to make these 4 the 'face' of the democrats is a way counter the very issues you raise. It is a sign of strategic thinking and shows me he has the vision and determination to win again.

Getting involved in the dnc spat was a bold move and went against conventional wisdom, but can only benefit him in the months to come.

Of course, if the economy comes off the rails, he is toast.

But, I am loving the plus odds on him now.

Perhaps you guys don't agree, but I was very impressed by his ability to see an opportunity on the fly and improvise a way to capitilize on it in real time. He is always looking for an edge over the opposition.
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He's a fierce competitor, no doubt. That's one of his strongest attributes as a candidate. He's also not a drinker and is a workaholic. Overall, I agree with the idea that making "the squad" the center of attention is smart politics. However, I think his approach could have been more intelligent. The "go back to where you came from" thing will piss off a lot of independents.
 
im annoyed i missed trump moving from 2.2/2.3 ish to evens on betfair now. that was a good trade opportunity with everything happening in the last month or so. goddam july so busy with different sports..
 
waiguoren said:
He's a fierce competitor, no doubt. That's one of his strongest attributes as a candidate. He's also not a drinker and is a workaholic. Overall, I agree with the idea that making "the squad" the center of attention is smart politics. However, I think his approach could have been more intelligent. The "go back to where you came from" thing will piss off a lot of independents.
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yeah, originally i thought he was just pandering to far right voters but now i think it was shortsighted. he could of had the exact same impact with a lot less of the controversy, if he just thought about it a bit more.
 
next round of debates in a few days for the democratic nominee.

current betfair odds:

harris 3.6 (slowly drifting from low 3.**'s over the last month. still too short imo, im going to add more against her and aim for at least 4.0 before hedging a bit)
warren 4.6 (shortened from 5-5.1 ish, price seems reluctant to drift, i think we could see a push towards 4.0 at this rate. she is outperforming the markets prior expectations and ppl are wanting to be her at the odds she was at a few weeks back.)
biden 4.8 ( gradually shortened from around 6.0-6.4 this month, obviously as a result of him still leading the polls, i think biden's odds have the most chance too just blow out really high numbers if he slips up next week)
buttigieg 12.0 (drifted to 14.0ish at times this month, verdict is still out as poles somewhat lacking. people waiting to see more from him, has potential to go much lower for sure imo)
sanders 13.0 (very stagnant despite still polling strongly, assume it's because he's not really gaining or losing new voters
 
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waiguoren said:
He's a fierce competitor, no doubt. That's one of his strongest attributes as a candidate. He's also not a drinker and is a workaholic. Overall, I agree with the idea that making "the squad" the center of attention is smart politics. However, I think his approach could have been more intelligent. The "go back to where you came from" thing will piss off a lot of independents.
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Yeah, the send her back chant at his rally was indefensible, and a vote loser, but he did see the mistake and walked it back pretty quick.

His tweet was crude, but as a one off ok, it was a troll tweet designed to create an uproar. Dnc had no choice but to rally around the squad after that.

Pelosi now taking photo ops with Cortez, he has them dancing to his jig.
 
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There's an assumption here that I totally disagree with that Trump is making calculated political statements instead of just rage-tweeting. He regularly does reactionary stuff during/shortly after news programs when no one would even have time to think about it or consult with others. There's a reason we've seen so much backfiring.
 
^ I think you are wrong. Look at his latest tweet storm on Cummings. Now, instead of Cummings getting media time attacking his handling of the border, the focus is on Baltimore. Cummings is now playing defense, and the media looks ridiculous as it tries to play the race card yet again. He controls their messaging.

I think you can make a case that it is not the best way to operate, but to think its not deliberate is missing a huge amount of what is going on.

You have to understand he operates in a hostile media environment. I don't see things backfiring, but he has to some damage to inflict more damage and keep his opponents off balance.
 
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@longway that is because Trump uses confirmation bias and a visualization in his messaging, another brilliant move. If you think there is nothing wrong with Baltimore, you think Trump is just going off the handles again. If you think there is a problem (which most Americans probably do), your brain says yeah it’s a problem and that problem is then branded to Cummins. Cummins is a popular figure in the Democratic Party and quite vocal in the media so when he is on, people subconsciously think of the shittier parts of Baltimore (not the good parts).

Regarding the squad, they are the Sarah Palin of the Democratic Party, absolute disaster.
 
I can almost guarantee Trump snags a significant chunk of the black vote. This week is an optics disaster for dems.
 
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