Political Betting Thread

[rev0lver]

• Anyone know how long it will take for bookie to settle the bet after election?

For this election it's somewhat hard to say. There might not be a complete count for weeks after the election with all the mail-ins, and there's whispers of court challenges no matter what this year. The winner is officially declared in the government process on January 6, so it's feasibly possible books could wait till then.

 

[longway]

https://www.investors.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-tightens-2016-voters-ibd-tipp-presidential-poll/

This is the topline.

In a head-to-head Trump vs. Biden poll, the Democratic nominee leads by 5.7 points, 49.8%-44.1%.

Meanwhile, 48% think most of their neighbors will vote for Trump, and just 36% think their neighbors will mostly back Biden.

The neighbour question is lifted off the Trafalgar group polls and is how they estimate the 'shy Trumper' demographic. The 'neighbour' is really themselves. What they think is that so-called undecideds and some erstwhile Hidenites, actually support Trump and that preference is revealed through that answer. It's a striking divergence from the topline for sure.

 

[TrueAscension]

If Biden takes FL or TX we will know the results on election night.

 

[rev0lver]

The neighbour question is lifted off the Trafalgar group polls and is how they estimate the 'shy Trumper' demographic. The 'neighbour' is really themselves. What they think is that so-called undecideds and some erstwhile Hidenites, actually support Trump and that preference is revealed through that answer. It's a striking divergence from the topline for sure.

It's an interesting discussion point but I just don't see the evidence for that interpretation.

Anecdotal example here, but my parents live in a retirement type of town in North Carolina. Their neighborhood is older, moderately wealthy, and very white. They assumed most of their neighbors would be Trump backers. They see trucks around town decked out in Trump 2020 stickers and flags. Their nextdoor neighbor has a huge Trump banner in front. But when they actually drove around the neighborhood, they were surprised to see more Biden yard signs than Trump signs. It could be a more literal kind of thing, that just has more to do with people underestimating Biden's support because the Trump side tends to be a bit louder.

 

[longway]

It's an interesting discussion point but I just don't see the evidence for that interpretation.

Anecdotal example here, but my parents live in a retirement type of town in North Carolina. Their neighborhood is older, moderately wealthy, and very white. They assumed most of their neighbors would be Trump backers. They see trucks around town decked out in Trump 2020 stickers and flags. Their nextdoor neighbor has a huge Trump banner in front. But when they actually drove around the neighborhood, they were surprised to see more Biden yard signs than Trump signs. It could be a more literal kind of thing, that just has more to do with people underestimating Biden's support because the Trump side tends to be a bit louder.

Yeah, not sure how they use it. Pretty sure not every one who says neighbour supports Trump is a 'shy trumper', would probably depend on other factors as well.

I guess they would have a proprietary algorithm to use that answer calculate the hidden trump support.

I don't know if 2016 was a fluke, but I guess we will find out in a couple of weeks.

 

[Joedaman55]

I was talking about both pundits and regular viewers, though. Reactions seemed to be similar from both. I do know there's still a feeling that if Trump loses this election, it'll be a heavy blow to the current state of the republican party. Dems picked up a lot of seats in the midterms and could be looking at huge wins next month beyond just the presidency. If Trump's no longer at the helm of the party, the right wing populist messaging is gonna be crushed and I'm not sure what they do from there.

Nothing has changed, everyone was picking against him last time too, everyone was so confident that DC leases were going before the election rather than after. Things seem similar to last time and I haven’t had anyone in the middle that I know that went for Trump switching to Biden even though they don’t like Trump.

If either party loses the say it’s the end of the party, same narrative as last time.

Outside of Scott Adams, Lichtmen and the Primary Model, everyone was off on the election.

 

[Joedaman55]

If it means anything, Nate Silver's model in 2016 gave Trump a near 30% chance at winning. He's much more careful than most mainstream outlets, and recognized that Trump only needed to hit the top of his polling margins in a couple states. He gives Trump less than half that chance here, currently sitting at 13%

Silver has been historically pretty good but he was way, way off last time (it was 30% the whole time), I have a strong feeling he’s making the same mistakes on relying on traditional polling methods. Wonder what his excuse will be this time when Trump wins.

 

[Joedaman55]

This polling feels about right based on data I’ve seen although shocked on Wisconsin Results:
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/

 

[longway]

I told you guys that the Ukraine impeachment was a trap set up by Trump. Bait taken, now they are trapped.

 

[rev0lver]

Silver has been historically pretty good but he was way, way off last time (it was 30% the whole time), I have a strong feeling he’s making the same mistakes on relying on traditional polling methods. Wonder what his excuse will be this time when Trump wins.

Well, he does rely on traditional polling methods but is more in-depth in analyzing them and weighing certain polls vs other polls. What he saw in 2016 was that Trump was polling within the margins in enough swing states that he could feasibly win. But those margins are wider this time around, and don't discount how tight those swing state races actually were. Biden just needs to do slightly better than Hillary in 3 of those swings, and unless the polls are somehow less accurate than 2016, he should do better and might do a lot better.

 

[TrueAscension]

Why do people compare this election to 2016? People thought Clinton had it in the bag and they didn’t come out to vote

 

[SBJJ]

This polling feels about right based on data I’ve seen although shocked on Wisconsin Results:
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/

That shit is not good for Biden

 

[SBJJ]

I bet Trump takes GA @-165

 

[longway]

Implied prob of trump winning now 40%.

These are the early voting numbers for florida thus far.



Isnt this bad news for dems? I thought they expected to dominate early voting this year.

 

[The Eagle]

Isn't it weird that the odds on Biden are dropping? About a week ago he was -200. Now he is -170 on Bovada.

 

[longway]

I bet Trump takes GA @-165

The polls are tripping about Georgia, the crazy numbers from GA and TX make me think there is seriously something wrong with the polls.

 

[rev0lver]

Implied prob of trump winning now 40%.

These are the early voting numbers for florida thus far.



Isnt this bad news for dems? I thought they expected to dominate early voting this year.

No, IP early voting = in-person early voting. Trump has been expected to have an advantage with in-person voting, right? I'm not sure if it matters whether its election day or not. If the IP votes are relatively even, I think that could spell trouble for him. Dems reportedly already have a big lead with mail-ins there.

 

[rev0lver]

Why do people compare this election to 2016? People thought Clinton had it in the bag and they didn’t come out to vote

I think it's a good thing for Biden that the media isn't acting like this, and it might be purposeful. By most metrics this should be an easy win for him. But the sentiment I get from friends/family is that they're unsure and are urging everyone they can to go out and vote. Big turnaround from 2016 when I knew a lot of people who didn't bother or wanted to cast 3rd party protest votes because they thought it wouldn't matter.

 

[Joedaman55]

Well, he does rely on traditional polling methods but is more in-depth in analyzing them and weighing certain polls vs other polls. What he saw in 2016 was that Trump was polling within the margins in enough swing states that he could feasibly win. But those margins are wider this time around, and don't discount how tight those swing state races actually were. Biden just needs to do slightly better than Hillary in 3 of those swings, and unless the polls are somehow less accurate than 2016, he should do better and might do a lot better.

The problem with the margin argument was that from memory, they were all Hillary skewed and not random.

Some swing states were close, others, not so much. I think it’s likely that polling is less accurate than 2016 and we’ll find out in a couple weeks.

 

[Joedaman55]

That shit is not good for Biden

Agreed except Wisconsin is great news for Biden. Although with polls, it’s really tough to tell how skewed they are as I still think the methodology has been so bad at predicting Trump’s actual numbers.