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Political Betting Thread

rev0lver said:
If it means anything, Nate Silver's model in 2016 gave Trump a near 30% chance at winning. He's much more careful than most mainstream outlets, and recognized that Trump only needed to hit the top of his polling margins in a couple states. He gives Trump less than half that chance here, currently sitting at 13%
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He must be having some major huge bets on Biden if he is so confident. I trust bettors more than analysts. Bettors often make the best analysts for obvious reasons, at least where the value is, and if he thinks Trumph has 13% he must be having huge bets. Unless its to change the odds for Trumph so he can play both sides or switch.
 
FimbulFightPicks said:
He must be having some major huge bets on Biden if he is so confident. I trust bettors more than analysts. Bettors often make the best analysts for obvious reasons, at least where the value is, and if he thinks Trumph has 13% he must be having huge bets. Unless its to change the odds for Trumph so he can play both sides or switch.
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He was wrong in 2016 so let me preface the rest w that. But he’s the very best at this, he predicted every state perfectly 3 times in a row if I’m not mistaken. He’s an analytics dork that moved from baseball to politics, I don’t think he’s shilling for Biden to win some bet
 
Ryan Kelly said:
He was wrong in 2016 so let me preface the rest w that. But he’s the very best at this, he predicted every state perfectly 3 times in a row if I’m not mistaken. He’s an analytics dork that moved from baseball to politics, I don’t think he’s shilling for Biden to win some bet
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Why trust an expert when you can trust a random bettor on a gambling forum though!!
 
Ryan Kelly said:
He was wrong in 2016 so let me preface the rest w that. But he’s the very best at this, he predicted every state perfectly 3 times in a row if I’m not mistaken. He’s an analytics dork that moved from baseball to politics, I don’t think he’s shilling for Biden to win some bet
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Maybe not - I´m not saying he is - but if he is this good, like I said he must be having a huge bet - if not he is missing out big time, as he can then predict and win a lot of bets and probably spot a lot of value.
 
FimbulFightPicks said:
Maybe not - I´m not saying he is - but if he is this good, like I said he must be having a huge bet - if not he is missing out big time, as he can then predict and win a lot of bets and probably spot a lot of value.
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He said he's not allowed to place bets (whether it's a conflict of interest or other legal issue) in response to the Trafalgar guy's bet offer. But he seems pretty confident in his analysis this year.
 
rev0lver said:
He said he's not allowed to place bets (whether it's a conflict of interest or other legal issue) in response to the Trafalgar guy's bet offer. But he seems pretty confident in his analysis this year.
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That would make sense. Thank you for explaining. But of course there are always ways around it. Might be a few tailers, I don´t know the guy, but if he´s that good and he´s right, sounds like still fantastic value on Biden.

Ryan Kelly said:
These bettors that you trust more than analysts . . . who do you think they're picking?

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...-stake-150m-on-election-bet-the-farm-on-biden
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I´d perhaps trust some bettors. I didn´t say all. It does make sense more money is being staked on a favorite. In sports there´s many bettors but only few worth listening to, as most lose longterm.

Probably a few analysts are worth listening to of course. But overall I just follow bettors who often are analysts too. But definitely not all or any bettor. Anyway this seems to be a sensitive topic, thanks for link to the article.
 
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rev0lver said:
I don't think it was an indicator of much beyond his base's passion. Bernie Sanders drew Trump-style crowds and could easily outdraw Hillary and Biden at his rallies. He lost both races. Crowd sizes are just a consequence of populism. I wouldn't turn an instance of correlation into a rule.



I don't want to discount the possibility that Trump could perform slightly better than polling indicates. Actual results usually fall within the margin of error rather than the exact polling averages. But the margin just feels even wider this time around. Biden is averaging a lead in Georgia right now, a state that Hillary never led in a single poll. Trump's support base is buzzing, but if the minority is shouting really loud it doesn't turn them into the majority.
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The dnc had to cheat to ensure that killary got over the finish line, and he often outperformed everyone's expectations. He was a can they allowed to run bc the dnc thought he would get crushed. The dnc had to cheat once again in nevada and prevent sanders from getting a w. Then they had to persuade all the other candidates to drop out, just to push Hiden over the finish line. It's an indicator, not the only one, but one that you are being dismissive of, maybe its more important than you think. You can't quantify it well, but voter enthusiasm is a big factor imo.

The big leads in Georgia, texas moving to toss up, indicate huge changes in electorate mood, where are the other indicators of that? It's only polling. Gop is out registering dnc in at least some battlegrounds. The polling indicator doesn't tally with other indicators. It's weird imo.

Success has a thousand fathers, failure is an orphan. No-one is even coming out to sniff Hiden's hair. Obama only just came out. People should be falling over themselves to be seen to be on his side. His 'campaign events' are more suitable for funerals than running for president.
 
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rev0lver said:
If it means anything, Nate Silver's model in 2016 gave Trump a near 30% chance at winning. He's much more careful than most mainstream outlets, and recognized that Trump only needed to hit the top of his polling margins in a couple states. He gives Trump less than half that chance here, currently sitting at 13%
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It should be a rout. But the betting line gives trump a 35% chance to win. This is insane. I can understand hype pushing him to 20% or at the edge of possibility 25%, but 35% given the polling? It's out to lunch. Yuuuge value on Hiden. This again is a contrarian indicator. Doesn't mean trump is going to win obviously, he is not the favourite, but as a bettor, aren't you wondering why?

Trump at very least hit top of line consistently bc of voter enthusiasm, something you dismiss, and could mean that 35% was an underestimate. What if polling is off and trump has more enthusiasm than ever?

I an understand huge bets at these odds, but they are not coming in. Plenty of hard nosed people bet huge sums on politics, but they are not swooping in.
 
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longway said:
Do you even know what EV is or can calculate implied probability?
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Don’t insult me. I already showed you I have 3u on Biden. Obviously the ML price won’t track Nate’s predictions perfectly for a number of reasons. Here are 2: 1) everyone is rightfully trepidatious bc of how wrong everyone was in 2016; and 2) A huge portion of TARDUS’ supporters are delusional dildos. Do you even know that books taking action on this aren’t predicting outcomes, but rather are only trying to get equal $ on both sides?
 
Ryan Kelly said:
Don’t insult me. I already showed you I have 3u on Biden. Obviously the ML price won’t track Nate’s predictions perfectly for a number of reasons. Here are 2: 1) everyone is rightfully trepidatious bc of how wrong everyone was in 2016; and 2) A huge portion of TARDUS’ supporters are delusional dildos.
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But you just made a nonsensical statement. With a highly liquid market like us politics, the EV will never be allowed to get this high. You have no idea what you are saying. Good luck with your bet, I think it's a good one.
 
longway said:
But you just made a nonsensical statement. With a highly liquid market like us politics, the EV will never be allowed to get this high. You have no idea, what you are saying.
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Books aren’t predicting outcomes. They are trying to get equal $ on both sides. The majority of the $ is on Biden, but A certain segment will continue to bet for the supreme leader no matter what bc he had a big rally the other night.
 
Ryan Kelly said:
Books aren’t predicting outcomes. They are trying to get equal $ on both sides. The majority of the $ is on Biden, but A certain segment will continue to bet for the supreme leader no matter what bc he had a big rally the other night.
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A meaningless statement, followed by arrogance. You are in a bubble.
 
longway said:
The big leads in Georgia, texas moving to toss up, indicate huge changes in electorate mood, where are the other indicators of that? It's only polling. Gop is out registering dnc in at least some battlegrounds. The polling indicator doesn't tally with other indicators. It's weird imo.
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I've heard about this as well but I haven't really seen a deep dive into the data. Republican registrations might be up, but I know the biggest party growth over the past few years has been with independents. And there are other factors to account for here, like new voter registrations vs old-school conservative democrats officially switching parties. It's an interesting metric either way.

longway said:
It should be a rout. But the betting line gives trump a 35% chance to win. This is insane. I can understand hype pushing him to 20% or at the edge of possibility 25%, but 35% given the polling? It's out to lunch. Yuuuge value on Hiden. This again is a contrarian indicator. Doesn't mean trump is going to win obviously, he is not the favourite, but as a bettor, aren't you wondering why?

Trump at very least hit top of line consistently bc of voter enthusiasm, something you dismiss, and could mean that 35% was an underestimate. What if polling is off and trump has more enthusiasm than ever?

I an understand huge bets at these odds, but they are not coming in. Plenty of hard nosed people bet huge sums on politics, but they are not swooping in.
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I see your point here. I personally chalk it up to emotional betting which is definitely big in politics. Imo lots of conservatives buy into Trump's overconfidence (or at least his act of confidence) and think the dog odds are big value. That or they're looking for the potential of a Trump court challenge where he wins whether he was meant to or not.
 
  • Anyone know how long it will take for bookie to settle the bet after election?
 
Ryan Kelly said:
Books aren’t predicting outcomes. They are trying to get equal $ on both sides. The majority of the $ is on Biden, but A certain segment will continue to bet for the supreme leader no matter what bc he had a big rally the other night.
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I don't really get what you mean here. Bettors move the lines. He's saying the fact that Biden's not a bigger favorite means there's enough people confident in a Trump victory to keep the line where it's at. And when money's involved (and there's MANY millions on the books right now for this election), it's possible that the Trump bettors are seeing something that other analysts aren't. Of course we see bad betting trends happen all the time, but it's worth thinking about.
 
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