Political Betting Thread

[longway]

Ladbrokes mentioned in the thread the only time they have taken more money on biden was the week of the debate and when drumpf caught the chinese virus, while trump is sitting at 55% of the stakes bet they also mentioned.

Betfair have £81,177,345 matched on drumpf, and £72,105,418 matched on the old dude. both the amount of money and the number of people betting swing to trump, The amount of ppl seem to indicate more casuals/right leaning ppl are betting him. while the biggest bets have been placed on biden. The biden money is catching up however. wall street can't use betfair, and they likely are playing the financial/fiat markets instead, or using US offshore books also.

Wall St guys can find ways to open an account like anyone else. The magic money printing press has been opened for them for months, the big money that should be coming in on basement hiding trembler is just not there for him.

 

[Joedaman55]

Geebus, that was easily the worst debate performance I’ve ever seen a presidential candidate have, insane. I mean, Trump got him with everything, forced mistakes, and made Joe do some crazy gaffes. Half of the debate I just saw what seemed like an angry grandpa just going on and on being angry at the world with no solutions.

The Abraham Lincoln gaffe was bad, he somehow brought in Hitler and framed America as if they liked him (logically not true but that’s not how visuals worked out), pissed off all of the oil industry, had a lack of understanding how common people do well off of a strong economy, had no good logic on why he couldn’t help prison reform for 40+ years, pretty much said Trump kept us out of war with North Korea, had no response on how his coke head son could pull a multimillion dollar executive job with no energy experience, his response to not getting things done was because of a Republican Congress (Trump has a great line where he said “sometimes you got to push them”), no clue on the fracking video but I’ve been told he said it, and really couldn’t describe any sort of plan while rambling about feelings.

Like holy smokes, Trump just laid down a Khabib like pounding.

 

[longway]

^ that oil industry remark was a big one imo. Who would have thought he would have said that out loud.

 

[Roads55]

Wall St guys can find ways to open an account like anyone else. The magic money printing press has been opened for them for months, the big money that should be coming in on basement hiding trembler is just not there for him.

little point for them i think. they can go through brokers or alternative routes ofc, but betting millions on either guys is going to crush the order books, I think they are just more than happy to play the stock markets based on who they think will win. what would you class as big money coming in on biden, because most of the biggest bets have been on him.

 

[Roads55]

I thought trump clearly won, nothing majorly going to affect the results though I think.

 

[longway]

I thought trump clearly won, nothing majorly going to affect the results though I think.

I dont know. Him saying he wants to kill the oil industry is a big gaffe.

Looking at it now, it makes me think he wants a way out. The trembler has been broken and wants out of the whole thing.

 

[Joedaman55]

^ that oil industry remark was a big one imo. Who would have thought he would have said that out loud.

A lot of oilfield workers are blue collared and blue collar usually stick together as they hate seeing fellow good workers out of work.

That absolutely sunk him this election in states with blue collar workers. That one comment alone would lose any candidate an election.

 

[rev0lver]

Not sure what you guys were seeing on Trump killing him. I thought Trump did better than his previous performances I've seen, but that's a small step to climb. Biden was just "good enough" as usual. Nothing great out of him. He missed a shitload of opportunities to fire back at Trump and call out his lying, but perhaps he didn't want to be as confrontational. Initial poll results suggest Biden won handily, just not by as much as the first debate.

Disagree about the oil line. I mean I guess if we're looking at it superficially. But oil industry workers themselves are more keen to what's going on. They know it's an unstable industry that's going to have to transition sooner or later, but most plans call for those workers being re-trained in new fields and it'd be a very slow transition where their work wouldn't stop for a long time. He didn't say anything new here.

Most important section was probably still about covid, which I thought Biden won pretty cleanly. But at the end of the day, I don't think this debate moved the dials an inch. Carrying all my (hopeful) UFC 254 winnings this weekend to Biden's victory line.

 

[rev0lver]

I actually thought Biden calling out the republican congress was a great line, though I wish he elaborated a little more. Trump trying to respond to it basically told people that democrats are willing to get stuff done, but republicans aren't. Biden also made a great mention of the HEROES act earlier, showing dems working to push things through but being stuffed by republicans. Trump didn't really have a response there.

 

[SBJJ]

I thought Biden kicked Trumps ass the first debate. But I thought Trump clearly won this debate.

At this point it may take a miracle for Trump though. The powers that be have their mind set on who they want in that office. And it ain't the fat orange man

 

[TrueAscension]

Not one person who was voting Trump moved to Biden and not one Biden voter moved to Trump. We all know there is no such thing as an undecided voter anymore these days.

 

[longway]

Not sure what you guys were seeing on Trump killing him. I thought Trump did better than his previous performances I've seen, but that's a small step to climb. Biden was just "good enough" as usual. Nothing great out of him. He missed a shitload of opportunities to fire back at Trump and call out his lying, but perhaps he didn't want to be as confrontational. Initial poll results suggest Biden won handily, just not by as much as the first debate.

Disagree about the oil line. I mean I guess if we're looking at it superficially. But oil industry workers themselves are more keen to what's going on. They know it's an unstable industry that's going to have to transition sooner or later, but most plans call for those workers being re-trained in new fields and it'd be a very slow transition where their work wouldn't stop for a long time. He didn't say anything new here.

Most important section was probably still about covid, which I thought Biden won pretty cleanly. But at the end of the day, I don't think this debate moved the dials an inch. Carrying all my (hopeful) UFC 254 winnings this weekend to Biden's victory line.

This is popping up on my twitter timeline. The tone Welker uses to say 'Why would you do that?' after trembling joe hiden states he is going to kill the oil industry. As if she is disappointed in him making such a killer gaffe.

 

[mkess101]

@longway and @Joedaman55 are overstating a bit how much of a "destruction" it was, but Trump did get the better of it overall. You guys aren't just bettors though, you're invested emotionally in Trump too so I can see having the view you do. I didn't watch it live, but broke down and watched it later last night. Objectively, both guys had better performances than the first time imo. Joe made as many mistakes for sure, but also didn't look so completely and utterly old and lost. The oil industry comment wasn't good, but the election is obviously coming down to the battleground states. The only one I can see this really hurting him in is PA. So while the comment wasn't good for him, it likely shouldn't hurt him too badly overall. Trump seemed to find his sweet spot. Less obnoxious and combative but still aggressive. His people did a great job getting him into the right headspace it would seem.

The thing is, Biden only needed to avoid a complete and utter implosion. And he did. Very few voters were still undecided as of now most likely, and it's pretty unlikely that Joe handed a significant amount over to Trump with that performance. It really would have taken a catastrophe, a meltdown unlike anything we've ever seen. Or something physical where Joe passed out and collapsed up there. It didn't happen, and now Joe will be told to say precious little the rest of the way. Generic cookie cutter stuff that can't sink him.

If anyone remembers the Ravens when they won the Super Bowl back in like 2000 over the Giants...consider Biden to be like Trent Dilfer. The Ravens had an utterly dominant defense with Ray Lewis and all those all pros. Dilfer was their QB and they basically told him "Don't turn the ball over. Manage the game. We don't need you to win games for us, just don't lose them." The DNC is telling Biden the same thing. "You don't have to do anything great. Or even anything good. Just keep quiet and don't screw up your lead..."

 

[Joedaman55]

@longway and @Joedaman55 are overstating a bit how much of a "destruction" it was, but Trump did get the better of it overall. You guys aren't just bettors though, you're invested emotionally in Trump too so I can see having the view you do. I didn't watch it live, but broke down and watched it later last night. Objectively, both guys had better performances than the first time imo. Joe made as many mistakes for sure, but also didn't look so completely and utterly old and lost. The oil industry comment wasn't good, but the election is obviously coming down to the battleground states. The only one I can see this really hurting him in is PA. So while the comment wasn't good for him, it likely shouldn't hurt him too badly overall. Trump seemed to find his sweet spot. Less obnoxious and combative but still aggressive. His people did a great job getting him into the right headspace it would seem.

The thing is, Biden only needed to avoid a complete and utter implosion. And he did. Very few voters were still undecided as of now most likely, and it's pretty unlikely that Joe handed a significant amount over to Trump with that performance. It really would have taken a catastrophe, a meltdown unlike anything we've ever seen. Or something physical where Joe passed out and collapsed up there. It didn't happen, and now Joe will be told to say precious little the rest of the way. Generic cookie cutter stuff that can't sink him.

If anyone remembers the Ravens when they won the Super Bowl back in like 2000 over the Giants...consider Biden to be like Trent Dilfer. The Ravens had an utterly dominant defense with Ray Lewis and all those all pros. Dilfer was their QB and they basically told him "Don't turn the ball over. Manage the game. We don't need you to win games for us, just don't lose them." The DNC is telling Biden the same thing. "You don't have to do anything great. Or even anything good. Just keep quiet and don't screw up your lead..."

Lol only two more weeks to find out. Also, we’ll see what how Scott Adams viewed it soon who usually calls things pretty well.

Just go watch the Luntz Focus Group yesterday and you tell me how it wasn’t a disaster.

 

[mkess101]

Lol only two more weeks to find out. Also, we’ll see what how Scott Adams viewed it soon who usually calls things pretty well.

Just go watch the Luntz Focus Group yesterday and you tell me how it wasn’t a disaster.

IMO it would have needed to be something so utterly severe that the media couldn't possibly spin it. If Joe collapsed on stage, nothing they can do to pretend everything is fine.

With what happened, that's not even close to the case. The left leaning places like CNN are saying Biden clearly won the debate. Not surprising (and wrong imo) but he did just enough to at least allow them to spin that narrative. And that's all that was needed.

 

[longway]

IMO it would have needed to be something so utterly severe that the media couldn't possibly spin it. If Joe collapsed on stage, nothing they can do to pretend everything is fine.

With what happened, that's not even close to the case. The left leaning places like CNN are saying Biden clearly won the debate. Not surprising (and wrong imo) but he did just enough to at least allow them to spin that narrative. And that's all that was needed.

IMO what you miss is that this is a turnout election.

It's all about turnout, enthusiasm for Trump is way higher than for Hiden. The laptop from hell and his fracking gaffe is going to hurt his turnout at minimum, its likely cost him PA. The guy has been around for 47 years, voters know that he won't do anything for them, he never has, it's all about hating Trump. He has lost the decency argument too. Those guys are gone. All he has on his side now are the haters.

Just relying on people hating Trump won't win him this election. Hiding in his basement will not get people to turnout. VBM will not save him. Enthusiasm for Trump is through the roof, with Hiden its literally in the basement. Killary actually had a fairly enthusiastic base, and Hiden with much less enthusiasm has the same average lead in the battlegrounds that Killary did.

Trump's turnout issue is COVID, it's a big handicap for him, but I think he is able to make the case on other fronts enough for him to stitch this one up, though I think it will be a squeaker, coming down to a few hundred thousand votes.

Its how I see it and how I will be betting it.

 

[SBJJ]

IMO it would have needed to be something so utterly severe that the media couldn't possibly spin it. If Joe collapsed on stage, nothing they can do to pretend everything is fine.

With what happened, that's not even close to the case. The left leaning places like CNN are saying Biden clearly won the debate. Not surprising (and wrong imo) but he did just enough to at least allow them to spin that narrative. And that's all that was needed.

Do not underestimate the power of the corrupt media

 

[mkess101]

IMO what you miss is that this is a turnout election.

It's all about turnout, enthusiasm for Trump is way higher than for Hiden. The laptop from hell and his fracking gaffe is going to hurt his turnout at minimum, its likely cost him PA. The guy has been around for 47 years, voters know that he won't do anything for them, he never has, it's all about hating Trump. He has lost the decency argument too. Those guys are gone. All he has on his side now are the haters.

Just relying on people hating Trump won't win him this election. Hiding in his basement will not get people to turnout. VBM will not save him. Enthusiasm for Trump is through the roof, with Hiden its literally in the basement. Killary actually had a fairly enthusiastic base, and Hiden with much less enthusiasm has the same average lead in the battlegrounds that Killary did.

Trump's turnout issue is COVID, it's a big handicap for him, but I think he is able to make the case on other fronts enough for him to stitch this one up, though I think it will be a squeaker, coming down to a few hundred thousand votes.

Its how I see it and how I will be betting it.

I disagree, but we'll see. I do think PA got pulled very much back into play when it looked like Trump was going to lose it. Now...not sure. He may win it.

Generally, I would agree about the turnout philosphy that "just hating Trump won't do it". In any other election, for sure I agree. I think this is different. The Dems know they have a garbage candidate, and they've done a solid job of making this a referendum on Trump. Or...it's just organically happened and the DNC has little to do with that. Either way, Trump's personality (and how that manifests itself in the way he communicates) has become a huge detractor for him this time imo. I think it worked FOR him in 2016 (straight shooter, outsider, etc) and now a lot of people just view him as a bully and blowhard. In addition, there is monstrous push to get the black vote out. The pro sports leagues (NBA, NFL, etc) running ads nonstop for voting. Yeah, they aren't specifically endorsing Biden in those ads but they all say things like "the most important election ever" and hyperbole like that, it's easy to read between the lines.

I think another thing people are underestimating is that although Hillary had an enthusiastic base in 2016, she also had a TON of haters. Even lifelong Dem voters wouldn't pull the trigger on her because they just disliked her as a person. Her husband had sex with interns in the oval office, straight up lied about it on national TV, and is STILL viewed as more honest and trustworthy than she is. She was utterly unlikeable. I don't think Biden is some kind of Bill Clinton-esque charmer by any stretch, but the DNC knows that. Biden is seemingly as shady as Hillary (or if not AS, he's still shady) but that stuff isn't resonating with voters right now. It came out too late, when most people had made up their minds. Or the stuff he did prior that was out just hasn't moved the needle to where he gets that hate that Hillary got from a certain % of the populace (even some on the left).

I do think the people predicting a Biden landslide are off. I think it will be relatively close. But I think Biden wins.

 

[mkess101]

Do not underestimate the power of the corrupt media

Yeah that's kinda what I mean. There are a few things that can't be spun, no matter how much they might try. But those are on the very far, exreme edges of stuff that can happen. None of that took place. It was a more toned down debate, with no utter implosions by either guy.

 

[rev0lver]

Lol only two more weeks to find out. Also, we’ll see what how Scott Adams viewed it soon who usually calls things pretty well.

Just go watch the Luntz Focus Group yesterday and you tell me how it wasn’t a disaster.

Luntz's focus groups are always more right-leaning, and his own takeaway from them was that it was a virtual tie.

Simple fact is that undecided voters are some of the dumbest, most superficial people in the country. I felt CNN's focus group actually gave me some good insight into that. The constant Biden messages of unity resonates more with them than anything about actual policy. Trump didn't really give anyone anything to latch on to, beside presenting an acceptable demeanor.