People aren't picking Aspinall because he's some revolutionary great fighter, they are picking him because he's a fast, quick, powerful, 265lb HW with some good skills on top of that. It's hard to find that kind of athlete.
He's never shown good cardio, never experienced real adversity in a fight, his overall grappling skill and endurance is a big question mark, and his best wins just aren't much. Every dangerous striker in their prime KO's Bladyes (BB, Ngannou, Aspinall, Pav), and Pav just got beat by Volkov in a more convincing fashion.
With his frame, size, and athletic movements, you have to think his stamina will fail him in a moderately paced fight. He's smart though, and has just enough skill to be a true well rounded HW fighter in a division that's pretty thin atm. His wrestling isn't too great, technique is lacking but he has good low kicks, fast hands, and his top control is very good for a HW fighter.
Across both Bladyes fights, he only spent 1 minute in the cage with him. So we've never seen this guy actual defend a takedown from a decent wrestler. What makes Aspinall dangerous isn't really the skills, it's the unknown. There's not enough footage to say how truly good or bad he is at certain aspects of the game, so you got to step in there versus a dude who is going to blitz you, and you'll need to mostly solve him in the moment.
Whenever Tom comes back, he'll have less than 4 minutes of octagon time in the last 3 years. At that point the lack of cage time is not a benefit. After watching his fights again he's pretty prone to making mistakes on the ground, and he expends a lot of energy when he doesn't need to (Clear signs of an overly energetic youthful fighter who's never tasted the penalty of these mistakes).
Things I noticed
- Almost never attacks the body, since his ACL injury he has only landed 1 body shot despite maintaining an average of over 10 strikes landed per minute since. He's a big headhunter for good reason but have almost never seen this guy successfully attack the body, mostly just occasional body jabs at opponents who were heavily overmatched.
- Doesn't defend his body well, whether it's punches or kicks anyone who has mixed up their strikes has had good success attacking his body. This bodes really well for Jon or Gane, or Volkov who already had success.
- Loves to throw outside low kicks from both stances, almost never throws inside low kicks and has only recently added a decent lead high kick from orthodox. Jon & Gane are more advanced in stance switching, by a good margin. Jon especially, he can end a fight in either stance.
- Not dangerous at all in southpaw stance, complete ruse like most Orthodox fighters. In his last two fights didn't even try to switch stance, respecting the danger from his opponents and possibly the takedowns of Bladyes(?).
- Has never fought a southpaw in the UFC, idk why the UFC lists Pav as a southpaw? What answers does he have to a fighter who can land powerful strikes from either stance? If he doesn't have the stamina to just rush someone or dart back, is his defense going to hold up?
- The only time Tom faced adversity he lost, he's obviously much better than his Bamma days but I'm not sure he's even bled in the Octagon.
- We have never seen this guy stick to a gameplan for any extended period of time, he's smart but is he disciplined?
- This guy fights pretty reckless, willing to exchange with Pav in the opening seconds. Doesn't like to fight off the back foot at all, willing to stand his ground even if it leaves him open to a clinch, big punch, or takedown, etc. Bladyes was able to back him up in the 2nd fight with his grappling threat, pressure fighters who can get under his punches will exhaust his energy and have opportunities to clinch, not sure I've ever seen Aspinall throw an uppercut?
Reminds me of Bisping in a way, respectable grappling but will heavily struggle if he has to fight a real wrestler that avoids some striking exchanges (Kennedy, Rashad, Chael).
Rewatching the fight versus Arlovski, the 42-year-old did look fresher in round 2. Aspinall in round 2 attempts one of the only real double leg shots of his UFC career after showing some shaky defense and drop in volume. Was breathing out of his mouth the entire round but gets a clean sub on Arlovski who made some grave mistakes. I'm pretty convinced this guy can't go into deep waters, these days Aspinall is 20lbs bigger than he was back then.