Hot Take Paddy Is gonna Beat Gaethje Pretty Easily

[oldschoolmmafan]

That's a damn good return on $10

I had a parlay come in with Bisping, Diaz and Tate vs Silva, Mcgregor and Holm at $10 and got nearly 2k. My greatest betting moment.

 

[CatchnShoot]

The only thing that makes this fight close is that Gaethje is well passed his prime.
Do not be surprised if Justin knocks Paddy the fuck out.

I do think it's a pick 'em, and it comes down to this.... if Paddy can't get Gaethje down he is going to sleep. 5 rounds with Justin could be a bridge too far for Owen Hart's son.

 

[Thy]

gaythe by eyepoke imo.

 

[oldschoolmmafan]

 

[BigTruck]

I had a parlay come in with Bisping, Diaz and Tate vs Silva, Mcgregor and Holm at $10 and got nearly 2k. My greatest betting moment.

I don't remember the entire fight order but I put $100 on Holly to beat rousey and a few others and hit for $10k, wish I had the balls to put the full $1500 I had in the account at the time.

 

[shh]

I cheer for our sherbro @theufcbaddy, but i will not underestimate Justin.

 

[Mohawk Banditó]

There's a gap of fight IQ, optons and adaptability here.

Gaethje has one way to win, but we all know exactly how he's going to try to fight.

This is something we usually hear from people saying how Justin is a good wrestler, but never uses it over his brawling, and if he wrestled more, he would win fights. So it's weird to read this and then:

When it hits the ground, and it will, I believe It's over. Paddy is way too good on the ground

 

[Shay Brennan]

Most of what you said is true, but Gaethje is sloppy. He overcommits. He leaves too many openings. He's always chasing the KO. Paddy has a tighter game, and he will win.

Yeah but Gaethje is coached by Trevor and he knows this is his last run to undisputed title.

He just has to do this:
Don't attempt takedowns at all because Paddy is too good on the ground and could reverse position or attack submissions
Avoid the clinch because Paddy could threaten with a guillotine or back take leading to a RNC, maybe even pull guard
In the first round just box while occasionally throw leg kicks because there is danger of getting taken down if he overcommits with his leg kicks.

Do you have Paddy winning by submission or decision?


Gaethje just has to land 1 good shot and that could completely change how the rest of the fight plays out if he doesn't get the KO.
Or damage Paddy's legs so much that he can't do anything for the rest of the fight and just finish him.

It's a great fight and matchup and excellent fight card overall, even without Amanda vs Kayla.

 

[Harlekin]

How? He doesn't have the wrestling to get his awesome ground game going. His TDA is just 28% and he got outwrestled in 5 out of his 7 UFC fights.
His TDD isn't good either at just 50%.

He doesn't have the striking to compete with Gaethje. He's got good leg kicks but they don't compare to Justin's calf kicks.
Justin is the most accurate leg kicker in UFC history. Since all those champs couldn't stop his leg kicks there is no reason to believe a fighter like Paddy can either.

There is a slight possibilty that he gets a submission from the clinch or from a knockdown but that's about it.

He has to worry about Gaethje's uppercuts, hooks, leg kicks, head kicks, for 5 rounds, while Gaethje only has to worry about that choke attempt from the clinch.


Even if they end up even in the striking, Justin's power would give him those rounds.


Gaethje outstruck one of the best strikers in the division in Fiziev, twice.

My only worry is that Gaethje didn't worsen too much from his last fight. He is 37 after all.

I do give Paddy props for his last two victories but his first 5 fights weren't impressive at all.

Ultimately, this title fight doesn't matter because neither Gaethje nor Paddy can beat Topuria.

I could be wrong, crazier things have happened in this sport. But unless Gaethje has worsened a lot since that Fiziev fight or if Paddy gets a back take or knockdown leading to a choke, I don't really think he can win.

Here:

Very good post, I agree with.
Gaethje won a MD in the first Fiziev fight because Fiziev gassed.
He won the second fight by being short notice for Fiziev, who gassed again.
Fiziev is just a 8 minute fighter against elite opposition who press the action. He only can go longer if he has more advantage.
He easily won the first rounds against Gaethje, 2nds were close and he totally lost the 3rds.
In a 5 rounder he would've gotten knocked out due to his cardio issues.
He's a 5'8 tank at 155 all fast twitch. 5'8 that's Dominick Cruz height at 135
O Malley is 5'11 at 135

Indepent from outcome, I think we will see way better striking from Paddy. He is putting more emphasise in training on it for 2 years now.

 

[Shay Brennan]

Very good post, I agree with.
Gaethje won a MD in the first Fiziev fight because Fiziev gassed.
He won the second fight by being short notice for Fiziev, who gassed again.
Fiziev is just a 8 minute fighter against elite opposition who press the action. He only can go longer if he has more advantage.
He easily won the first rounds against Gaethje, 2nds were close and he totally lost the 3rds.
In a 5 rounder he would've gotten knocked out due to his cardio issues.
He's a 5'8 tank at 155 all fast twitch. 5'8 that's Dominick Cruz height at 135
O Malley is 5'11 at 135

Still, it's kinda crazy that he went 6 full rounds with Gaethje.
He got beat up in both fights though.

Fiziev even ate a clean head kick without getting knocked down, even Gaethje was surprised with that.

Yeah his gas tank is the main reason he lost but the difference in raw power was also obvious.

If Fiziev wants to stay at 155, I suggest the UFC rebooks that Oliveira fight if he loses to Holloway.
Other than that, there aren't many fun fights there for him.
Since he went 6 rounds with Gaethje, I'd say he's worthy to fight for the BMF belt, but Holloway has too good cardio and would beat him. Maybe if Oliveira wins then make that fight for the BMF belt instead of waiting for the LW title unification bout to be over.

There are some good fights at FW for Fiziev but first he'll have to beat Ruffy.

What do you suggest?

 

[AstralPanda]

This is something we usually hear from people saying how Justin is a good wrestler, but never uses it over his brawling, and if he wrestled more, he would win fights. So it's weird to read this and then:

I doubt Gaethje will try to take him down

If / when it ends up there, it will be from Paddy catching him off guard, in a scramble, off a strike, or even pulling gaurd.

You can have good wrestling and TDD, but there's a lot of ways fights will still end up on the ground, thats why Gaethje's lack of jiu jitsu is such a huge hole.

 

[Kung Fu Kowboy]

View attachment 1130565

 

[Your Salad]

Gonna be America vs England part 2

Part three? There was that one time about 250 years ago.

 

[AMAZINGUFC]

There's a gap of fight IQ, optons and adaptability here.

Gaethje has one way to win, but we all know exactly how he's going to try to fight.

Paddy Is going to be a lot smarter here, he's not gonna engage directly In any sort of fire fight. He's good enough to have success on the feet, but it will be tactically, not by playing Gaethje's game directly.

When it hits the ground, and it will, I believe It's over. Paddy is way too good on the ground and Gaethje is still a white belt with no real desire to improve his jiu jitsu.

Overall Paddy makes this look easy, which will make fans double down on underestimating him, saying he only beats aged fighters, etc.

Fatty the baddy by choke in the first

View attachment 1130510

 

[Small Town Andrew]

This is desperation for Justin. He badly wants to win the belt. I think he is past his prime and a little shot though. Doubtful he has enough to win

 

[Jonny Ninja]

Paddy has a surprising durable mandible. I’ve never even seen him buzzed but he’s not hard to hit. IMO this fight comes down to whether Justin can crack that chin. If he can’t then paddy beats him

 

[Mohawk Banditó]

I doubt Gaethje will try to take him down

If / when it ends up there, it will be from Paddy catching him off guard, in a scramble, off a strike, or even pulling gaurd.

You can have good wrestling and TDD, but there's a lot of ways fights will still end up on the ground, thats why Gaethje's lack of jiu jitsu is such a huge hole.

Well, that's not really what I was getting at. I understand why the second part of I quoted exists, I was more questioning the meaning of the first

 

[Like a fiddle]

Justin's a good value as a 2 to 1 underdog. He's a pretty big step up for Paddy

 

[DanaWhitesButler]

How exactly do you think he wins?

Fights are unpredictable, but if I had to guess, he'll repeatedly get excited, overextend chasing a KO, and get taken down. He'll lose a UD or maybe even get submitted. Just is a good and dangerous fighter, but he doesn't have the best situational awareness or decision making when he's either hurt himself or has his opponent hurt.

 

[Chaotic Progressor]

I wouldn't say this is a hot take. I agree and Paddy is a favorite for a reason.

Justin is 38, recently KO'd, last leg of his career, one foot out the door - smaller, in frame and reach; easily submitted v. a high level grappler @ Paddy; Paddy is bigger, longer, faster, younger, slicker striker... and submits him easily if they go to the ground.

Justin could of course catch him with a punch of head kick but, I think Paddy is too young, game, fresh right now / he'll see it coming or, absorb the shot - I think people aren't emphasizing enough how big for LW Paddy is, and people may be suprised by how he absorbs some of Justin's shots.