News Oliveira: I'll knock out Topuria

[JKS]

I couldn’t imagine Topuria getting subbed by Jim Miller

Can you imagine Topuria getting subbed by Jim Miller at 21 years old, 2 years into his mma career? There's a difference in taking about Charles’s grappling skills at his very best and most evolved in 2025 and in 2010. You’re basically insinuating he’s the same fighter. BTW, Charles subbed Miller in 2018 very easily.

 

[JKS]

Ilia has better wrestling than Charles. It's going to be a struggle to take Ilia down. Charles needs to use his diverse striking skillset against Ilia and maybe use the clinch to try to tire him out and make him work. I don't think the ground game is the key to victory in this one.

Charles has some of the best TDs at LW next to Islam. He has such a wide variety of TDs and techniques to get the fight down and it's effective in most of his wins. The other threat, is the standing submissions Charles attempts, considering the height difference here, Charles will likely be using those standing sub attempts.

I think the ground game is the key no doubt and getting top position. I am sure you see what he did to Arman once he got top position on him and that's a better grappler than Ilia. Standing is too dangerous for Charles, Ilia will likely catch him.

 

[r-harper-1]

Jim miller is a Div I wrestler and high level BJJ black belt who was in his prime, and charles was 20 years old and green and bouncing between weight classes. When illia was 20, he was only like 4 fights into his career, a bantamweight, and no where near facing top 15 LW guys like prime Miller. You honestly can't see a prime Jim miller catching that version of illia in a sub? the guy has 21 subs lol.

Ok ok calm down …….i couldn’t imagine Topuria quitting against Cub Swanson

 

[Chaotic Progressor]

This is gonna be a banger.

I'd have to go Illia by knockout - Charles gets caught, and Illia's boxing is superior. And, the best boxing I've seen by any MMA fighter; probably the only one I'd actually compare to an actual boxer - in terms of his form, his punch form, how he turns into his shots vs. majority of MMA fighters @ lobbing their hands with their head down, arm punches etc.

I'd bank on Illia catching and finishing Charles, before Charles is able to do so.

 

[fortheo]

Ok ok calm down …….i couldn’t imagine Topuria quitting against Cub Swanson

What does that have to do with grappling though?

 

[dipstickjimmy]

He has fought at LW before. Ilia's last fight at LW

Gilbert Burns used to train with Topuria. He said Ilia can KO anyone 170 and below. You don't have to believe him but that's what the man said.

I am aware of his fight at LW in the UFC. I am aware Gilbert said stuff. Does that make it truthful? Was it in the context of Promoting a Fight? Its not like UFC employees aren't paid to say shit to hype fights now is it?

It simply is not a forgone conclusion Topuria will KO elite guys at LW the way he did at FW. Ilia is high level skill wise. Jai Herbert is not. Lots of guys get brutal KOs against lower skill level fighters of larger size. There are literally thousands of "Killers" who then become quite ordinary when they get to the upper echelons.
Hector Lombard was murdering guys at MW until he go anywhere near the top 10 in the world. Even when he dropped to WW he was still quite mortal.

Same goes for guys moving up. Volk could have gone to LW and KO's a top 25 guy or maybe gotten a dominant decision. But he lost a clear but competitive decision and then a brutal KO because Elite vs Elite size most often matters.

 

[dipstickjimmy]

Topuria made Herbert fly off the ground in the lightweight category, my friend.

Yeah Herbert is ranked what? He is Elite I just don't remember how highly ranked? top 1-3? Top 5? Top 10? Top 15? Top 25? Top 92? According to Tapology there are 92 LWs on the roster. Is he better than Tony Ferguson who is listed at #92? The list has him at 57. Not sure if those are a ranking but they are not alphabetical.

 

[Gamer007]

Ilia is a warrior but he gets hit a LOT, don't be surprised if he gets busted up a bit.

 

[AMAZINGUFC]

Yeah Herbert is ranked what? He is Elite I just don't remember how highly ranked? top 1-3? Top 5? Top 10? Top 15? Top 25? Top 92? According to Tapology there are 92 LWs on the roster. Is he better than Tony Ferguson who is listed at #92? The list has him at 57. Not sure if those are a ranking but they are not alphabetical.

The question is not about rankings, it was about whether Topuria would have punch or not at lightweight and I gave an example that showed that.

 

[Aurelian]

I am aware of his fight at LW in the UFC. I am aware Gilbert said stuff. Does that make it truthful? Was it in the context of Promoting a Fight? Its not like UFC employees aren't paid to say shit to hype fights now is it?

It simply is not a forgone conclusion Topuria will KO elite guys at LW the way he did at FW. Ilia is high level skill wise. Jai Herbert is not. Lots of guys get brutal KOs against lower skill level fighters of larger size. There are literally thousands of "Killers" who then become quite ordinary when they get to the upper echelons.
Hector Lombard was murdering guys at MW until he go anywhere near the top 10 in the world. Even when he dropped to WW he was still quite mortal.

Same goes for guys moving up. Volk could have gone to LW and KO's a top 25 guy or maybe gotten a dominant decision. But he lost a clear but competitive decision and then a brutal KO because Elite vs Elite size most often matters.

When he knocked out Max Holloway, who had literally never been KO'd before in 33 fights to me is a huge accomplishment under his belt. It's very obvious to anyone who watches Ilia fight that the dude does have some serious power in his punches.

Max fought Dustin twice and Poirier couldn't even do that. Conor couldn't do it. Aldo, Pettis, Stephens, they couldn't do it.

 

[Neck&Neck]

When he knocked out Max Holloway, who had literally never been KO'd before in 33 fights to me is a huge accomplishment under his belt. It's very obvious to anyone who watches Ilia fight that the dude does have some serious power in his punches.

Max fought Dustin twice and Poirier couldn't even do that.

But the haterz will cry “but but the weight cut” “Max drained himself”
Like a fight at LW would of gone any different

 

[Aurelian]

But the haterz will cry “but but the weight cut” “Max drained himself”
Like a fight at LW would of gone any different

I mean, you can say Ilia is cocky, arrogant, he has bad defense and gets hit, yadda yadda yadda but the motherfucker has power.

 

[188912345]

Ilia is a warrior but he gets hit a LOT, don't be surprised if he gets busted up a bit.

Shocking, a fighter gets hit in his fights.

His striking defense % is higher than Volk, Islam, Holloway, Charles, Poirier, Gaethje, and Arman.

Interestingly enough, it's also 4% higher than Strickland (64% vs 60%).

It's also higher than Pereira, Izzy, Edwards, Usman, and 1% lower than Aspinall and Khabib.

And equal to JDM.

 

[wrb]

When he knocked out Max Holloway, who had literally never been KO'd before in 33 fights to me is a huge accomplishment under his belt. It's very obvious to anyone who watches Ilia fight that the dude does have some serious power in his punches.

Max fought Dustin twice and Poirier couldn't even do that. Conor couldn't do it. Aldo, Pettis, Stephens, they couldn't do it.

Max was his best win; it's creepy that he said he would knock him out, and he did. To be fair, both guys will never fight at that weight again, and for some reason, I think it's harder for Max to cut than Ilia, plus Ilia is younger. I am not sure how lightweight will go for Ilia, as it was Herbert's first UFC fight and he had Ilia dead on arrival but fumbled the finish. Plus, Ilia tried for a submission for a whole round but never got one. Also, Josh survived five rounds, and Jean probably did better against Bryce. Honestly him not fighting Islam first is the right call as I think Hooker, Gamorot, Arman and Raphael give him issues.

 

[Aurelian]

Max was his best win; it's creepy that he said he would knock him out, and he did. To be fair, both guys will never fight at that weight again, and for some reason, I think it's harder for Max to cut than Ilia, plus Ilia is younger. I am not sure how lightweight will go for Ilia, as it was Herbert's first UFC fight and he had Ilia dead on arrival but fumbled the finish. Plus, Ilia tried for a submission for a whole round but never got one. Also, Josh survived five rounds, and Jean probably did better against Bryce. Honestly him not fighting Islam first is the right call as I think Hooker, Gamorot, Arman and Raphael give him issues.

Ilia never went for the kill with Josh. Emmett has power so Ilia played it super safe and just pieced him up without taking a whole lot of risk. He won that fight 50-42 on one judges card. That's probably just about as embarrassing as getting finished.

 

[dipstickjimmy]

The question is not about rankings, it was about whether Topuria would have punch or not at lightweight and I gave an example that showed that.

No the question isn't simply can he KO someone. I weigh 212 lbs. If I were to get in amazing shape I would be a MW or WW. 100% Topuria could KO me. Skill level gap is massive.

Gap between Charles skill and Topuria is very low. Higher in striking in favour of Topuria and even higher in favour of Charles in grappling.

Topuria's KO power at LW against elite isn't a forgone conclusion. Charles threat is far greater then Jai Hebert. Also If Charles rocks Topuria the way Hebert did Toppy won't get away with grabbing the desperation single leaving his neck out the way he did against Hebert. Again Hebert is Zero threat on the ground and Toppy still got dropped by a head kick. Maybe Charles does stand a chance?

 

[dipstickjimmy]

When he knocked out Max Holloway, who had literally never been KO'd before in 33 fights to me is a huge accomplishment under his belt. It's very obvious to anyone who watches Ilia fight that the dude does have some serious power in his punches.

Max fought Dustin twice and Poirier couldn't even do that. Conor couldn't do it. Aldo, Pettis, Stephens, they couldn't do it.

Yes and Maybe Topuria will KO Charles? Its just not a forgone conclusion.
It has been pointed out he KO's Jai Hebert at LW. Everyone skips the part where Hebert dropped Toppy with a head kick and Toppy had to panic wrestle for a few minutes desperately grabbing a single and dangling his neck out like a carrot on a stick. Can he be reckless like that against Charles?

Imagine him getting rocked by Charles (If Jai can do it Charles could) and being this sloppy and not getting subbed?

 

[Aurelian]

Yes and Maybe Topuria will KO Charles? Its just not a forgone conclusion.
It has been pointed out he KO's Jai Hebert at LW. Everyone skips the part where Hebert dropped Toppy with a head kick and Toppy had to panic wrestle for a few minutes desperately grabbing a single and dangling his neck out like a carrot on a stick. Can he be reckless like that against Charles?

Imagine him getting rocked by Charles (If Jai can do it Charles could) and being this sloppy and not getting subbed?

Charles is a monster and one of the best fighters in the world. He has the skillset to beat Ilia and more than one way to do that. It's going to be a fire banger ass fight in my opinion. I can't wait for it. Somebody is getting finished. I think this is guaranteed.

 

[dipstickjimmy]

This is gonna be a banger.

I'd have to go Illia by knockout - Charles gets caught, and Illia's boxing is superior. And, the best boxing I've seen by any MMA fighter; probably the only one I'd actually compare to an actual boxer - in terms of his form, his punch form, how he turns into his shots vs. majority of MMA fighters @ lobbing their hands with their head down, arm punches etc.

I'd bank on Illia catching and finishing Charles, before Charles is able to do so.

Unless Charles lands a head kick like Jai Hebert did. Jai is ZERO threat other than kickboxing and Toppy got caught. He didn't have to worry about getting taken down and subbed. That will make Charles striking more dangerous. If Toppy gets rocked like he did vs Hebert he will be subbed quickly. Can't afford to dangle his neck grabbing a sloppy single to buy time to recover. Toppy even panic wrestles like his Idol Conor.

Toppy might win but it is no forgone conclusion against elite LWs. Time will tell.

 

[Gamer007]

Shocking, a fighter gets hit in his fights.

His striking defense % is higher than Volk, Islam, Holloway, Charles, Poirier, Gaethje, and Arman.

Interestingly enough, it's also 4% higher than Strickland (64% vs 60%).

It's also higher than Pereira, Izzy, Edwards, Usman, and 1% lower than Aspinall and Khabib.

And equal to JDM.

He has been out struck by every single elite opponent he has ever fought......even bryce mitchell and ryan hall were able to nearly hang strike for strike.


I don't care about his striking "defense" lol, he has only fought 4-5 respectable strikers in his career. And that's if we include Jai Herbert and Youssef Zalal, and Herbert nearly KO'd him and Zalal would go on to lose or draw his next 3 fights after Ilia.


He has power and is a solid athlete, but I have serious questions about him. Especially considering the fight versus Volk was a joke, against a dude who just got KO'd a few months prior and was self admittedly struggling with substance abuse (alcohol).

You can only find the knockout so many times, eventually he's going to have to consistently win rounds against elite fighters. The best performance of his career is BY FAR the fight against an aging Josh Emmett.


I'm not saying he isn't a very good fighter, but he's not who you guys think he is. Now the UFC have predictably lined him up against Do Bronx, who will be a few months from 36 years old when they fight. Ilia has only fought 3 decent/good grapplers MMA grapplers (Volk, Bryce, Hall). But Hall only has 1 submission in the UFC, so his acumen at the highest level of MMA is shaky, and the only guy he ever subbed was the ghost of BJ Penn lol. Bryce was a solid offensive grappler, and Volk was known for his ability to control fighters occasionally. Charles will be the first serious MMA grappler he has ever faced.