Official UFN 74 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[jwms]

bovada changed their Silverio odds to -280. Dunno if people were hammering it or if the oddsmakers caught on to the mistake.

Too bad. I was just about to pull the trigger on hammering that 'free money' much further.

Definitely gets me eager to build up my bank roll on 5d further, as well as get other betting sites going to take advantage of mistakes like this to a larger degree in the future.

 

[iGnP]

NFL

Spoiler

closing out my parlay from Sunday w a bet on the Redskins ML

BOL

 

[Roads55]

Does Paddy Power offer live betting for MMA?

they do but not for all events. barely use them though as im limited to

 

[jrwfsl147]

Done a bit of tape study.

Lima KO +250- Krylov walks in like an idiot with hands down. If he starts throwing his sloppy shit Lima will crush him. Cody Donovan dropped Krylov ffs.

Arantes KO +350- In his last 4 fights Arantes knocked out Pepey with GNP, had Souza in full mount hugging him for dear life at the end of R1, knocked down Blanco on the feet and most recently landed a lot of good GNP on Fili, cutting him with elbows early on. If he's catching Yves with those shots, it's probably over.

 

[Ukram]

Does Paddy Power offer live betting for MMA?

Yes, not always on the early prelims but main prelims and main card most times.
Unibet got it on the early prelims though but most of us limited on bet amounts

You liking Sims KO line? Because his rd lines are awesome if you think he's got a chance to pull it off. I'm on them.

Added Sims and Magny parlay for +650 small.

Sure ko and round props are worth a shot, actually like that sims and magny prop its worth a small play.

 

[Ukram]

Anyone consider magny decision or su plays may wish to see this thread
http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f2/erick-silva-not-looking-thick-solid-tight-3053129/

Some question marks on silvas new body frame
old silva:

new silva:

Maybe the threads wrong or older weigh in pics who knows perhaps best to see weigh ins later on

 

[Aventurero]

^ Weight-cutting + absence of water in the body may have made him look more ripped. Hmm... Weigh-ins will tell the story!

 

[trident]

Interesting... that's pretty noticeable, more than water weight for certain.

 

[Card]

 

[trident]

parmary:

Spoiler

Max/Charles over 1.5
Burkman/Cote over 2.5
Magny Dec
Sims T/KO
Moroz Sub
Lima T/KO
Cirkunov ITD
Silverio

$10 for $12.9K

watch it bust on the first fight

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Find it funny that Perez submission line is +420 and his NOT Inside the Distance line is -265.

So I'm guessing they're basing that off Stout's declining chin. Yes he can't take shots like he used to, but Perez ain't gonna be the one to crack him like Pearson and Noons did. Pretty silly to think they have those lines that way not because of Perez' skills but it's more of a fade on Stout.

Make what you will of those lines.

 

[HeyBoone]

Find it funny that Perez submission line is +420 and his NOT Inside the Distance line is -265.

So I'm guessing they're basing that off Stout's declining chin. Yes he can't take shots like he used to, but Perez ain't gonna be the one to crack him like Pearson and Noons did. Pretty silly to think they have those lines that way not because of Perez' skills but it's more of a fade on Stout.

Make what you will of those lines.

So the implied odds will be 72.6% Not Perez ITD and 19.2% Perez SUB, leaving 8.2% chance of a Perez KO. Do you think that Perez should be given even less of a chance to get a KO on Stout than 8.2%?

 

[Oblivian]

So the implied odds will be 73.3% Not Perez ITD and 19.2% Perez SUB, leaving 6.5% chance of a Perez KO. Do you think that Perez should be given even less of a chance to get a KO on Stout than 6.5%?

Perez via (T)Ko is similar to his sub line is what I think he's getting at (+455 vs. +420). It's not like Stout is easy to sub either though. I think Perez getting the finish is fairly unlikely.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I don't understand those figures. What I'm implying is he ain't getting the KO lol.

I think the fight hits the scorecards as a whole.

 

[Ukram]

^ Weight-cutting + absence of water in the body may have made him look more ripped. Hmm... Weigh-ins will tell the story!

Well played if done intentionally :icon_chee

 

[HeyBoone]

Perez via (T)Ko is similar to his sub line is what I think he's getting at (+455 vs. +420). It's not like Stout is easy to sub either though. I think Perez getting the finish is fairly unlikely.

Makes more sense to look at it that way. I was confused when the Not ITD and SUB lines were the only ones mentioned.

I don't understand those figures. What I'm implying is he ain't getting the KO lol.

I think the fight hits the scorecards as a whole.

Fair enough, that's an understandable stance on this fight.

 

[zomb]

new lines

UFC Fight Night 77: Belfort vs. Henderson 2: Glover Teixeira (-315) vs. Patrick Cummins (+235)
UFC Fight Night 75: Nelson vs. Barnett: Gegard Mousasi (-350) vs. Urijah Hall (+250)

 

[zomb]

was hoping for a better line on moose as were many i think

 

[EzFlyer]

Spoiler

I always take Serena, Djok, Murray and even Nishikori whenever they losing, unless i back their opponents.

You on Anderson +4 next ? I think Lopez has better chances for upset than Anderson. Lopez actually matches up well with Nadal, he is slightly worse with the backhand, but it'll be competitive. No pre-match bet though, as i'm getting killed, but i'll be looking for a +4.5 or better.

Spoiler

speaking of the live betting thing we were just talking about... hit murray +510 set 2 and 2u on him at about evens after the first break of s2, and now freeling big on the ML

and yea, anderson i don't think gets the upset, but i think he makes close sets

 

[eNoq]

new lines

UFC Fight Night 77: Belfort vs. Henderson 2: Glover Teixeira (-315) vs. Patrick Cummins (+235)
UFC Fight Night 75: Nelson vs. Barnett: Gegard Mousasi (-350) vs. Urijah Hall (+250)

Mousasi is -305 on unibet, perhaps a 350 typo get on it while you can.