Official UFC on FOX 18 Thread

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Agent Mulder said:
Would have put 2u on that price for sure. Unfortunately for me the line were bad from the get go on 365 and unibet.
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Yeah, I only did 1u. Wish I did 2u, though. It's kind of hard though in the moment sometimes because you have to make a semi-stressful decision on the spot since the line can change any second after the opener. Sometimes you over bet, sometimes you under bet.
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Yeah, I only did 1u. Wish I did 2u, though. It's kind of hard though in the moment sometimes because you have to make a semi-stressful decision on the spot since the line can change any second after the opener. Sometimes you over bet, sometimes you under bet.
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Lol tell me about it. I've taken some horrible decisions on opening lines :)
 
At Ladbrokes you can get -105 19/20 on a parlay of CDF/OAM goes the distance and Sergey Kovalev-Jean Pascal does NOT go the distance. Like that, it's a great line on the boxing.

Unibet/888 have Kevin Casey R1 at 13/2 +650.
 
bruthead said:
At Ladbrokes you can get -105 19/20 on a parlay of CDF/OAM goes the distance and Sergey Kovalev-Jean Pascal does NOT go the distance. Like that, it's a great line on the boxing.

Unibet/888 have Kevin Casey R1 at 13/2 +650.
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Waiting on 5d Casey rd 1. I'm pretty big on Natal and over so want a little hedge. Was hoping for at least +600, so I like seeing that.
 
Rebeusch calls Rivera a pretty easy pick on heavyhands

Makes me feel better about feeling the same way lol
 
Can someone explain to me why Barnett/Rothwell is so close odds-wise?

Surely "Big Ben's" only path to victory is an early KO, after which Josh will inevitably wear him down with the clinching and pressure?
 
jrwfsl147 said:
Can someone explain to me why Barnett/Rothwell is so close odds-wise?

Surely "Big Ben's" only path to victory is an early KO, after which Josh will inevitably wear him down with the clinching and pressure?
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I still haven't been convinced, either

I don't get all the rothwell love
 
jrwfsl147 said:
Can someone explain to me why Barnett/Rothwell is so close odds-wise?

Surely "Big Ben's" only path to victory is an early KO, after which Josh will inevitably wear him down with the clinching and pressure?
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I wouldn't say that's his "only" path to victory. Most likely path yeah. Ben is durable and his power should still be there even if the fight goes late. I'm a little surprised at the line movement toward Ben but I'm kind of thinking this is one of those fights where people without a lean just said "F it. It's a HW fight. I'll bet the dog."
 
jrwfsl147 said:
Can someone explain to me why Barnett/Rothwell is so close odds-wise?

Surely "Big Ben's" only path to victory is an early KO, after which Josh will inevitably wear him down with the clinching and pressure?
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It's because Rothwell has been getting finishes. so they assume he's improving and his momentum will carry him through this.
 
EzFlyer said:
I still haven't been convinced, either

I don't get all the rothwell love
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Dude, Rothwell is ranked #7 and Barnett is ranked #8. It's a no-brainer, take the higher ranked fighter at dog odds (sarcasm, I am on Barnett)
 
Joseph Budden said:
Rebeusch calls Rivera a pretty easy pick on heavyhands

Makes me feel better about feeling the same way lol
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Every loss Alcantara has is due to being outgrappled or outwrestled. He's literally never been (T)Koed from strikes. Calling Rivera an easy pick due to heavy hands is insane in this matchup. Munhoz made the fight really close with him standing in a fight that Munhoz wanted on the ground badly.
 
mkess101 said:
I wouldn't say that's his "only" path to victory. Most likely path yeah. Ben is durable and his power should still be there even if the fight goes late. I'm a little surprised at the line movement toward Ben but I'm kind of thinking this is one of those fights where people without a lean just said "F it. It's a HW fight. I'll bet the dog."
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Maybe against Vera, who pot-shotted him for two rounds in a boring fight which he was losing.

Barnett's going to be clinching with him and pushing the pace throughout, it's pretty much what he always does. I don't believe Rothwell can live with that pace for three rounds, if he fails to get the early knockout.
 
Oblivian said:
Every loss Alcantara has is due to being outgrappled or outwrestled. He's literally never been (T)Koed from strikes. Calling Rivera an easy pick due to heavy hands is insane in this matchup. Munhoz made the fight really close with him standing in a fight that Munhoz wanted on the ground badly.
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heavyhands is the name of the podcast lol

But I just don't see anything Alcantara can do to win, I really don't. I don't think Yuri can take Rivera down, but I think Rivera can take him down. Can Yuri work back to his feet? Probably, but Jimmie isn't gonna give an inch. On the feet Yuri is an all power striker who doesn't use combos or really have any setups to his shot selections. His range is the only thing i'm worried about, but he sucks at using it. Rivera's boxing, especially in the pocket, is very good and improving every fight. I think this fight is gonna put people on notice of just how good Rivera can be. Hes only 26 and if you check out his regional work to his last 2 UFC fights you can see a top prospect whos really coming into his own.

Not to mention the cardio difference, the fact Yuri has seemingly hit a ceiling and possibly declining, how tough Rivera is. Really an easy play for me, even at -165. Might have started sweating a bit if an analyst I really respect in Rebeusch noticed some technical deficiencies that had him leaning Yuri or skeptical on Rivera, but was comforting to hear he feels the same.
 
jrwfsl147 said:
Maybe against Vera, who pot-shotted him for two rounds in a boring fight which he was losing.

Barnett's going to be clinching with him and pushing the pace throughout, it's pretty much what he always does. I don't believe Rothwell can live with that pace for three rounds, if he fails to get the early knockout.
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I tend to think Ben is sort of a "10 minute HW". I think he can go 2 rounds at a high pace, then would fade pretty badly if Josh is clinching him successfully and wearing him down. But I'm not sure Josh can do it. Ben is an above average sized HW for sure, and physically much stronger than someone like Roy Nelson.

I put a little on Josh rd 3 at +1150 as I think he could get Ben down when he tires and sub him late.
 
This is literally the first fight Alcantara has had in the longest time vs. someone who wants to strike with him. If you look at his record for the last few years, everyone he has fought is a grappler besides arguably Illarde Santos. On that fact alone, I'd be very hesitant betting someone who is likely looking to strike throughout most of the fight. Rivera had some scary moments against Munhoz, and like I said, Munhoz really wanted that fight on the mat and not standing. There is a good chance Alcantara may feel a lot more loose in this fight as he's had to worry about takedowns in all of his recent fights.
 
Man the thing to be worried about is how strong mentally Ben seems right now. The dude obviously wants it bad, and its not like hes a bum, hes a good fighter.

I've seen a few posts of people playing barnett in round 3, but I think Ben in round 3 is a better play. If he goes down 2 rounds, which is more likely than Barnett losing the first two imo, I think hes gonna come out guns blazing.
 
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