My Weekend Bets (UFC on FX 6 + TUF 16 Finale + Bellator 84) - Post Yours! PART II

[Oblivian]

can't believe how much i hate this card for betting. still think seth took rd1 against pierce after rewatching it. if you take a guy down and he slaps you in the ear 20 times and then stands up, the guy on the bottom won that exchange. i don't understand why that's controversial.

Sorry man, but I don't think I see one person agreeing with you on that one. I know you mentioned looking at the strike count (which honestly I don't put much stock into anyways), but they were actually even on significant strikes in Round 1 with Pierce having the better % on sig strikes. Factor in the takedowns and control, I think it's pretty clear Pierce had that round.

 

[Oblivian]

Will bet Mitrione/Nelson to go the distance. What the fuck are the bookies thinking?!

The opener was -120. The fight not going the distance got pounded.

 

[hendofan]

Varner is +100 and Barry is +190, wasnt going to play Barry but cant resist at that price.

 

[QTdd**]

The opener was -120. The fight not going the distance got pounded.

Just saw that on bestfightodds.
I'll probably put 200 on it later tonight.

No props yet, except for the main event...

 

[Goreds1994]

Sorry man, but I don't think I see one person agreeing with you on that one. I know you mentioned looking at the strike count (which honestly I don't put much stock into anyways), but they were actually even on significant strikes in Round 1 with Pierce having the better % on sig strikes. Factor in the takedowns and control, I think it's pretty clear Pierce had that round.

Agreed. I think his mind his clouded since he bet on Seth here.

The Pat Barry/SDR is a 50/50 fight imo, but Pat has terrible fight IQ. SDR looked decent against Stipe in round 1, but gassed and got finished.

I think Guillard is going to finish Varner. Once again though Guillard has terrible fight IQ as well. Varner has a great chin, but Guillard almost KO'd Cerrone (and probably should have, but bad fight IQ cost him). Varner definitely could KO Melvin as well, I just think his speed edge is huge here and it will help him. I also think their wrestling evens out, and Guillard looked a lot better on the ground against Camoes so I think he won't get subbed.

 

[EzFlyer]

Lombard looked like shit and did next to nothing against Tim last time out so I can understand both those plays. Lol, speaking of Belcher do you like him against Okami? I know your record is 0 for or close to it with Belcher fights but I have confidence in you breaking the losing streak this time out.

hehe thx for the pat on back on lombard one i'm leaning towards belcher, and it's 0/11 (0/3 on him, 0/8 against him)

 

[EzFlyer]

wow. 5 hours out from fights and ZERO props besides main event.. i'm sure they'll come this afternoon but blech

 

[J0N0]

Mannnn, I'm having problems parting with cash cuz I pretty much wanna play pretty much every dog (Head, Brookins, Varner, Catone, Barry) and it seems very unlikely the the bookies can be THAT wrong. =/

 

[arrelione]

hehe thx for the pat on back on lombard one i'm leaning towards belcher, and it's 0/11 (0/3 on him, 0/8 against him)

This makes me feel really good about my Okami play Don't you dare change your mind!!

 

[arrelione]

Fucking paddy power still haven't paid me for my Pearson bet. I contacted their customer service two hours ago and they said "We will look into it any minute". What the fuck is there to look in to.

 

[J0N0]

Fucking paddy power still haven't paid me for my Pearson bet. I contacted their customer service two hours ago and they said "We will look into it any minute". What the fuck is there to look in to.

How much did you have on? I only had a fiver so they paid me, but I guess a lot of people were hedging big money and they're case-by-casing it.

I don't see how they can possibly not pay you. They can't void a bet after an event because of their own fuck-up, I'm sure that must be illegal.

 

[arrelione]

How much did you have on? I only had a fiver so they paid me, but I guess a lot of people were hedging and they're case-by-casing it.

I don't see how they can possibly not pay you. They can't void a bet after an event because of their own fuck-up, I'm sure that must be illegal.

100€ and I placed my bet in november. When I decide to not freeroll I get fucked somehow some way even though I nailed the bet.

 

[J0N0]

100

 

[van1ty]

Sorry man, but I don't think I see one person agreeing with you on that one. I know you mentioned looking at the strike count (which honestly I don't put much stock into anyways), but they were actually even on significant strikes in Round 1 with Pierce having the better % on sig strikes. Factor in the takedowns and control, I think it's pretty clear Pierce had that round.

% deals with strikes thrown to strikes landed...

if i go 1/1 on sig strikes my sig strike percentage is 100%. what does that have to do with anything.

i don't like statistics generally because they dont' tell the whole story. the story of round one was pierce trying to hold down, and baczynski hitting him the whole time while he was trying to stand. fight metric also badly underreported the number of strikes seth landed in that round.


The judging community, and the vast vast majority of mma fans just dont' get it yet. they don't see when the guy on the bottom is the one who is really controlling the action. look to cariaso/mizugaki for a GREAT example of a fight that the judges actually got right. cariaso was landing more shots from the bottom, and he rightfully won that decision. it was a surprising decision for sure (as would seth winning here would have been), but i maintain it was the right one, and i maintain pierce winning here was the wrong one -- in the long term.

 

[Mortex2]

Holy shit, I stopped myself betting on Villa against Liverpool @+850 earlier and we're 2-0 up at halftime. Schoolboy error.

Damn, that was one sweet line.

 

[J0N0]

Damn, that was one sweet line.

Yep :icon_sad: I did have a fiver on QPR, so I still made a whopping

 

[Mortex2]

My money is all frozen up in parlay. So (just to participate), here is what I would have bet.

100 on Mitrione @3
100 on Barry @3

These are somewhat gambles, but i see the rest of the card as just unstable.

 

[cs10]

i hope mitrione picked up some tdd tips from that abel trujilo guy down at blackzilians lol

 

[arrelione]

% deals with strikes thrown to strikes landed...

if i go 1/1 on sig strikes my sig strike percentage is 100%. what does that have to do with anything.

i don't like statistics generally because they dont' tell the whole story. the story of round one was pierce trying to hold down, and baczynski hitting him the whole time while he was trying to stand. fight metric also badly underreported the number of strikes seth landed in that round.


The judging community, and the vast vast majority of mma fans just dont' get it yet. they don't see when the guy on the bottom is the one who is really controlling the action. look to cariaso/mizugaki for a GREAT example of a fight that the judges actually got right. cariaso was landing more shots from the bottom, and he rightfully won that decision. it was a surprising decision for sure (as would seth winning here would have been), but i maintain it was the right one.

It's more like the entire world don't get it.

 

[Mortex2]

Yep :icon_sad: I did have a fiver on QPR, so I still made a whopping