My Weekend Bets (UFC on FX 6 + TUF 16 Finale + Bellator 84) - Post Yours! PART II

Part 1: http://www.sherdog.net/forums/f2/my...tuf-16-finale-bellator-84-post-yours-2328339/

Same drill as always. Post your bets and discuss bets/matchups. Thread is always bumped after event.

Just getting this up a bit early. Only two fights are released right now, but I'm guessing I'll have in the $175-$225 range when all is said and done.

Update in green. Green is win+risk except on hedge/late add which is only win amount. I had a break even night - bet $162.50 and walked away with $163.11. I actually thought I did too much dog chasing, but really, SDR and Pokrajac killed my night.

Singles
Pearson: $22.50 to win $24.75 $47.25
Colton Smith: $7.50 to win $13.88 $21.38
Palhares: $7.50 to win $13.13 Loss
Mitrione: $7.50 to win $13.13 Loss
Viana: $7.50 to win $6.82 $14.32
Pierce/Baczynski goes distance: $7.50 to win $5.56 $13.06
Jansen: $7.50 to win $5.56 $7.50
Head: $5 to win $8.75 Loss
Manuel Rodriguez: $5 to win $8.25 Loss
Brad Scott: $5 to win $8.25 Loss
Loughnane: $5 to win $8.50 Loss
Cofer: $5 to win $7 Loss
Papazian: $5 to win $7 Loss
Freakshow/Parke goes distance: $5 to win $7.25 $12.25
Donovan: $5 to win $5.75 $10.75
Catone: $5 to win $5.50 Loss

$112.50 to win $149.08 $126.51

Parlays
Pierce + Pokrajac: $10 to win $7.13 Loss
Pokrajac + Poirier: $7.50 to win $6.04 Loss
Pierce + Shane Del Rosario: $7.50 to win $8.25 Loss
Bedford + Pierce: $7.50 to win $5.77 $13.27
Mendes + Varner: $7.50 to win $7.46 $8.00
Bedford + Poirier + Del Rosario: $5 to win $9.15 Loss
Herrig + Hale: $5 to win $6.35 Loss

$50 to win $50.15 $21.27

Hedge/Late Adds (Bets posted in thread prior to fights)
Barry: $5 to win $12 $12
Nelson/Mitrione ITD: $5 to win $3.33 $3.33

$15.33

$162.50 to win $199.23 $163.11

TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1010.18 Running Profit = $735.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.7%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2012: $29 into $2185.80 Total Profit = $2156.80 (Approximate ROI: 20.6%)

 

up 83 from last night
Got some decent parlays still on the go from last night too
lombard pierce nelson - 12 to win 20
volkov nelson/mitrione doesn't go distance - 10 to win 15
volkov Not gsot by dec Not palhares by dec nelson/mitrione doesn't go dec - 10 to win 26

Will add plays on varner and possibly a few others later

 

Up 600 last night.

Probably the first time ever I'll have a lot more underdog bets than favourite bets:

200 to win 400 on Mitrione
115 on Varner to win 100
100 to win 215 on Brookins
200 to win 390 on Smith
200 to win 380 on Barry
125 to win 100 on Waldburger
100 to win 180 on Head
460 to win 300 on Elliot
100 to win 130 on Cofer

Will bet Mitrione/Nelson to go the distance. What the fuck are the bookies thinking?!

 

I like almost every pick QTpie. Just waiting for the juice to narrow.

BTW Obl, I know you said in the last thread that the beef between TUF coaches seems fabricated but it looks like George and Ross truly hated each other. Apparently off camera Sots sucker punched Ross's striking coach Erin Beach who then proceeded to knock him out. There's a thread on page 1. Without the backstory, I can see how these guys seemed to hate each other for no good reason though. Would've faded Sots chin more had the story leaked!

 

If they had only shown that on tuf the ratings would have gone thru the roof and I would have woken up while watching it/

The only time I watched Tuff Aussie vs UK was when Colin Fletcher walked in the room, man that guys born wrong.

 

like all the plays qtdd.

think brookins and head lose, but they're very live.

 

Matchups are too close for the finale for my likings so I'm only on Porier and Pyle.

I've seen a ton of people with bets on Varner, I'm still not convinced we've seen enough from him to warrant all this confidence...

 

nvm

 

Everyone here seems to be on Varner, I'm going with Guillard.

Luckily last night I only bet to win 1 unit on Palhares. He was scared of Lombard didn't even attempt a single take down. Maybe one....

Won on Paker plus another bet - the match would go over 2.5. It was a frustration bet to win something for the night.

 

My Pierce, Mendes, Lombard, Pearson parlay I posted in the previous thread hit. Returned almost +300 and it was a pretty "scare free" bet, was a little nervous when G-Sot got Ross' back but other than that smooth sailing. Like previous poster said, matchups are very close tonight, parlaying Pyle and Poirier returns little over +100, easy money IMO.

 

Up about $160 so far. Didn't do so well with my picks but I got my biggest bets right and Beltran so I managed to show a profit.

Tonight: Head, Poirer, Rio, Reuben, Papazzian, Pat Barry, Colton Smith seems alright too me.

 

Well, either you're gonna do well or everyone else is ;]

 

and Varner, Khabilov ( tiny bet though just for action )

Think my bets are not so far off from everyone elses so not sure about that.

 

I think you might be particularly lonely with Poirier, Rio and Barry. Which isn't to say I think your picks are bad btw, just against the grain a bit. I do think Barry's a decent bet though, no HW with ko power should really be 200+ against someone around he same level.

 

yeah problem with the barry bet is I don't believe in it myself but a HW with ko power at +200 vs a non-elite HW is worth a play. Upsets happen to often to justify a play on Shane here in my opinion.

I just think brookins suck.

Rio looked better at the weigh ins.

 

Im on all the same guys, I don't know if thats a good thing or not.

Barry is just for the odds, I think Poirier will eat brookins.

 

^ oh really? Maybe it's just me then Abort, Abort, Abort! haha

I think Brookins has a decent chance, I'll play him small at least. His striking is sloppy as hell and he backs up straight, keeps his chin high... basically does everything wrong.. but he is a very good grappler and has some very decent td's. Everyone's super-high on Michael Johnson atm and it wasn't so long ago he ground him out @155; plus just think Poirier's super-overrated atm.

Good prospect, but who's he really beaten to be such a big favourite? He'll certainly win the standing portions, but Brookins has a real shot if he can close the distance and get into clinches.

 

can't believe how much i hate this card for betting. still think seth took rd1 against pierce after rewatching it. if you take a guy down and he slaps you in the ear 20 times and then stands up, the guy on the bottom won that exchange. i don't understand why that's controversial.

 

Holy shit, I stopped myself betting on Villa against Liverpool @+850 earlier and we're 2-0 up at halftime. Schoolboy error.

 

My name sounds so fucking gay, lol. Ah well. Not everyone is a wise man.

I'm going to up my bet on Barry.
People probably think the stand up is even with Rosario having some value because of his ground game, but he has bad wrestling and Barry's chin is better.

2-to-1 is insane.

Note that I had 500 on Lavar Johnson at roughly +185 against Pat. I'm not delusional about his abilities.