My Weekend Bets (UFC on FX 6 + TUF 16 Finale + Bellator 84) - Post Yours! PART II

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arrelione said:
How confident are you in Gabriels ability to take Ben down assuming he commits to that sort of gameplan wholeheartedly?

Becuase I think Gonzaga will fight smart like he said he would in his last fight.
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He has pretty solid takedowns, so I think he will be able to. I know I said that the Rothwell/Hunt fight doesn't matter, which it really doesn't, but Hunt took Ben down in rd 1 iirc.
He doesn't have great fight IQ though, so who knows. I think Gabriel is just the better fighter, plain and simple, and barring a big shot by Rothwell (definitely possible) Gabriel wins this pretty easy.
 
Pyle/Poirier parlay I posted was easy money. Got some good cash for UFC 155 to play with now. Going big on JDS inside distance @ -140, not going to get any better than that approaching fight night.
 
Really surprised to see Okami's line staying close to even. To the Belcher backers - how do you see this fight playing out?
 
Oblivian said:
Really surprised to see Okami's line staying close to even. To the Belcher backers - how do you see this fight playing out?
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I will be betting Belcher, I think he manages to keep fight standing, and I don't like Okami standing. He is not much of a striker. Pluse once overpowered he breaks. See Silva fight.

I just think Belcher is more dimensional fighter than Okami.
 
Additionally, if you take their first fight it went to decision for Okami. Since that time Belcher has shown marked improvement. Can not say the same for Okami, he pretty much remained on the same level he was.
 
Mortex2 said:
Are you serious?
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I'm completely serious.
Gonzaga has a mediocre chin, but he's better than Rothwell everywhere else.

Rothwell would not be a UFC level fighter without the HW division.
The Schaub KO was a big fluke as well.
 
QTdd said:
I'm completely serious.
Gonzaga has a mediocre chin, but he's better than Rothwell everywhere else.

Rothwell would not be a UFC level fighter without the HW division.
The Schaub KO was a big fluke as well.
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Also take into account this fight being in Brazil. The added advantage of Gonzaga fighting on home turf and Rothwell fighting a long way from home.

Geography consistently is an underrated capping tool. I'm very close to playing Gonzaga. He will be a favorite on fight day.
 
Mortex2 said:
I will be betting Belcher, I think he manages to keep fight standing, and I don't like Okami standing. He is not much of a striker. Pluse once overpowered he breaks. See Silva fight.

I just think Belcher is more dimensional fighter than Okami.
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I don't know if I've seen anything from Belcher that shows he can now handle Okami's takedowns and top game. His solid performances have been against fighters nothing like Okami.
 
RP3X said:
Surprised so many guys going so early its Monday only and were still 12 days away lol

Mind you its never too early to research and check into things, we perhaps may need a new thread and part 2 at this rate :)
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it's the bookies' fault.. 5d released lines this morning so... yea.

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Takk said:
Took Koch/Lamas ITD as well
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not a fan of that at all, what was the price?
 
Oblivian said:
Really surprised to see Okami's line staying close to even. To the Belcher backers - how do you see this fight playing out?
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personally i'm closing my eyes and flipping a coin and taking the guy who had +odds when i bet it, i figured that's better than analyzing the fight for me when it comes to belcher.

no, srsly, all joking aside, i took belcher because he was slight dog, because the line has steadily went towards him, and because i think okami is on the precipice of a decline from the top, whereas belcher is on top of his game. i think okami will fight a little too passively and can get tagged by some belcher legkicks, etc. it's a close fight for me. but plz don't ever tail me on this one heh.
 
you guys seem to be ignoring how rothwell completely changed physically before this last schaub fight. he wasn't even fat. and he got a 1st rd ko. you sure you're not overlooking anything? (tho i def like the +140 play, if only to arb later)
 
Oblivian said:
I don't know if I've seen anything from Belcher that shows he can now handle Okami's takedowns and top game. His solid performances have been against fighters nothing like Okami.
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I do not know about takedowns, but I think Belcher will clip him.
 
Just looking back through Belcher's fights. Unless he's made drastic improvements, I really don't see him shrugging off Okami's takedowns. Palhares took him down on first shot. Cote took him down. Kang had him down multiple times in their fight. Herman had him down both times he wanted him down.
 
gsp-diaz up.

march 16th.

gsp is -430, diaz +310.

personally i expect it to settle around -300 gsp. similar to condit line.
 
Oblivian said:
Just looking back through Belcher's fights. Unless he's made drastic improvements, I really don't see him shrugging off Okami's takedowns. Palhares took him down on first shot. Cote took him down. Kang had him down multiple times in their fight. Herman had him down both times he wanted him down.
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yes, and they all lost to Belcher.
 
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