Moore's Law

[Big Sissy]

Wirth's law- successive generations of computer software acquire enough bloat to offset the performance gains predicted by Moore's law.

Sorry if this has already been posted i didnt read the whole thread.

Edit- also stated as "software becomes slower more rapidly than hardware becomes faster"

 

[EyeTrainUFC]

I mean to increase my life expectancy into the projected range of the singularity.

Shit! all this time I've been treating my body like an amusement park thinking it wouldn't matter once the singularity hits. I never thought about making it to it. :redface:

 

[Big Sissy]

Gates law (Bill Gates) - "the speed of software halves every 18 months"

 

[TexasDrugAddict**]

Wirth's law- successive generations of computer software acquire enough bloat to offset the performance gains predicted by Moore's law.

Sorry if this has already been posted i didnt read the whole thread.

Edit- also stated as "software becomes slower more rapidly than hardware becomes faster"


Gates law (Bill Gates) - "the speed of software halves every 18 months"

So what they are saying it that software development is slowing down the process/rate of which PCs/Tech is growing.

How can one write software code for hardware that isn't cable of running it yet. its like a chicken and the egg type thing. ain't it.

 

[Rob Battisti]

so what they are saying it that software development is slowing down the process/rate of which pcs/tech is growing.

How can one write software code for hardware that isn't cable of running it yet. Its like a chicken and the egg type thing. Ain't it.

edit

 

[Soma]

Yo. Yooooooo. I just got done watch this 25min vid on Ray Kurzwell theory of Singularity and my head is spinning.



So many questions.

1. His theory "Kinda" co-insides with Moore's law and that tech will always keep doubling in some sort of way until his Singularity theory bares fruit.

I want to co-inside you.

 

[Big Sissy]

I want to co-inside you.

I just doubled

 

[SevenSamurai]

I would like to point out that this is my type of thread.

Lots of people making interesting and respectful contribution.

We should talk about this stuff more often.

 

[TexasDrugAddict**]

I want to co-inside you.

Haha, you should have put a pic of the Rape Graffe when you posted this.

 

[Tycho- Taylor's Version]

Do. I'd like to read it.

If I was really convinced that its likely I'd treat my body like a temple.

Please do, I'd very much like to hear about that.

shut your whore mouth!:icon_chee

actually I'm raither interested -please do.

I had a feeling it would be Massimo and I was right lol. But I think there was another article too, because I usually don't remember something I read only once. I'll see if I can track that down too, since this one is fairly brief.

http://kruel.co/files/2012-Singularity%20as%20pseudoscience.pdf

More discussion by the same author here:

http://rationallyspeaking.blogspot.ca/2011/04/ray-kurzweil-and-singularity-visionary.html

 

[TexasDrugAddict**]

I had a feeling it would be Massimo and I was right lol. But I think there was another article too, because I usually don't remember something I read only once. I'll see if I can track that down too, since this one is fairly brief.

http://kruel.co/files/2012-Singularity%20as%20pseudoscience.pdf

More discussion by the same author here:

http://rationallyspeaking.blogspot.ca/2011/04/ray-kurzweil-and-singularity-visionary.html

Thanks for the links.

 

[se7enthsign]

advances in computers have seriously slowed down over the past thirty years. all they're doing is increasing the memory, hdd/sdd size, and the processor speed. there haven't been many new innovations in terms of what computers actually do.

As far as hardware, isn't that really all that can advance? Everything else seems to be a matter of software and/or accessories.

 

[Slick_36]

I would like to point out that this is my type of thread.

Lots of people making interesting and respectful contribution.

We should talk about this stuff more often.

Agreed. These topics are the highlight of this forum to me.

 

[SevenSamurai]

Agreed. These topics are the highlight of this forum to me.

Can we find something to disagree on Slick?

 

[Slick_36]

Can we find something to disagree on Slick?

Lmao I'll keep an eye out for anything you post that I don't agree with and make sure to point it out. :wink:

 

[SafyreSchool**]

The moore the merrier.

 

[seatea]

http://rationallyspeaking.blogspot.ca/2011/04/ray-kurzweil-and-singularity-visionary.html

Ouch...

 

[JonesBones]

Kurweil is probably a crank but he is smart about stuff like electronics and AI. Though that doesn't make him right. I do think the broad premise is correct though. Humans in the future will no longer be biological, or at least have their biology supplemented with computers/other artificial materials.

 

[djacobox372]

Moores law will end around 2020-2030 computer power will continue to advance but at a much slower rate, the problem being that when you get circuits that are smaller than 10 atoms wide quantum physics and heisenberg's uncertainty principle kicks in and you can't reliably send information.

As stated earlier the real interesting question is what happens when we surpass the singularity.

Btw I'm thick as shit and this is just the impression I get from reading books written by people far smarter than myself ^^

Moores law was based on his observation of the advancement in transistors on integrated circuits. In many ways his law no longer applies directly, as computers are being made faster via other means these days (multiple cores, cloud computing etc.).

The game changer will be non binary computing. Quantum computers for example work with "probabilities" and not with 1's and 0's, which gives them a unique ability to calculate in the abstract--something that is extremely difficult to do with modern computers.

 

[djacobox372]

As far as hardware, isn't that really all that can advance? Everything else seems to be a matter of software and/or accessories.

Correct, saying that computers are not advancing because all they are doing is increasing speed and memory is like saying the olympic sprinters aren't advancing because all they are doing is getting faster.