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Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?
- Thread starter Sharkey
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I'll answer LOL.
15-1 (action regardless of whether horse runs or not--I'm assuming it's all but a lock Hofburg runs barring some last minute injury at this point right?)
I'm guessing odds don't shorten TOO much from here do they? I'm flying to Vegas Friday, so I think I'm just gonna wait to place any bets until I get out there.
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Yeah, he'll be running for sure now, Mike, barring, like you say, an unlikely health concern for him over the next few days.
15/1 kinda stinks, though. I doubt he goes any lower than that, but who the hell knows. 15/1 is already shorter on him than I thought he'd be. Too many people must've saw his last workout from yesterday as that was probably the best workout of any of the horses who have trained over the Churchill Downs track so far. Justify or Mendelssohn haven't hit the track yet after just arriving today, so for you guys who are interested in taking a little stab at Hofburg, the arrival of those two may take some of the buzz away from Hofberg and soften his price up some. Then we have the "dumb money" elements that will start to creep in on Friday and Saturday.
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@mkess101
All the horses I was liking drew well enough, so no changes for me. Justify is drawn outside Promises Fulfilled, which is what I was hoping to happen, and should have plenty of running space to his right with off the pace types drawing outside him. Audible drew good enough in the #5 hole and he get a nice ground saving trip following the horses to his immediate outside. Hofburg drew a good post in the middle of the track as he'll be one of the last ones put into the gate. Could be a good thing that he, as an inexperienced offspring of Tapit, won't have to wait too long before they're off. I like Vino Rosso drawing outside since he isn't as athletic as a lot of these horses and the more space he has to run the better. My two default options in Bolt and Solomini drew okay too. So did most of the field actually. Good Magic, Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon, etc. I don't see very many that got hurt by the post draw.
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Justify - A
Audible - B
Vino Rosso - B
Hofburg - B
Bolt d"Oro - B/C
Solomino - C
That's basically who I like with grades indicating how much at what price they'll be offered up as. Bolt is still one I'm unsure of how to play since I still have to get a good look at him out there on the track. But otherwise I may be playing the Derby like this;
$20 exacta key ($80) with Justify over the next four (no Solomini)
$5 trifecta key ($100) with Justify over the other five
$1 superfecta key ($60) with Justify over the other five
$1 trifecta box ($60) with the top five (no Solomini)
Audible - B
Vino Rosso - B
Hofburg - B
Bolt d"Oro - B/C
Solomino - C
That's basically who I like with grades indicating how much at what price they'll be offered up as. Bolt is still one I'm unsure of how to play since I still have to get a good look at him out there on the track. But otherwise I may be playing the Derby like this;
$20 exacta key ($80) with Justify over the next four (no Solomini)
$5 trifecta key ($100) with Justify over the other five
$1 superfecta key ($60) with Justify over the other five
$1 trifecta box ($60) with the top five (no Solomini)
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There's lots of options for people to bet this year, so hopefully you guys aren't as narrow with your plays as I'm going to be. I just have an opinion this year, though, and have to play it that way. But I'm also likely to be wrong too.
The only ones I give only a tiny chance to crack the super would be horses like Firenze Fire, Promises Fulfilled, and Bravazo. The rest are all usuable in one way or the other.
The only ones I give only a tiny chance to crack the super would be horses like Firenze Fire, Promises Fulfilled, and Bravazo. The rest are all usuable in one way or the other.
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Im a little skeptical with Justify running style, at Santa anita speed holds so well, watching the santa anita derby i think if that exact race was run at churchill bolt doro would have passed him down the stretch. I think i need to toss him from first
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I don't think the track mattered at all last time Justify beat Bolt, Airic. But I don't fault anyone for trying to beat the favourite.
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@Sharkey
I've been thinking about structuring my exactas and trifectas like so:
Audible, Justify / Audible, Good Magic, Justify, Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso
Audible, Justify / Audible, Good Magic, Justify, Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso / Audible, Good Magic, Justify, Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso
Do you think these plays make a reasonable amount of sense? Feel free to tell me I'm an idiot.
I'm also considering a W/P/S bet on Audible. Based on my highly technical and detailed analysis I have determined that he was born in the same town that I work, haha. I can get him right now at +700/+320/+195, but I'm not sure if I'll be able to get a better price tomorrow.
I've been thinking about structuring my exactas and trifectas like so:
Audible, Justify / Audible, Good Magic, Justify, Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso
Audible, Justify / Audible, Good Magic, Justify, Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso / Audible, Good Magic, Justify, Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso
Do you think these plays make a reasonable amount of sense? Feel free to tell me I'm an idiot.
I'm also considering a W/P/S bet on Audible. Based on my highly technical and detailed analysis I have determined that he was born in the same town that I work, haha. I can get him right now at +700/+320/+195, but I'm not sure if I'll be able to get a better price tomorrow.
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I’m liking the numbers on the 6 good magic. Came in 5 out of 5 lifetime has high earnings and consistent beyer speed figures. Def will be putting him in exactas and tris especially at 12-1
Also like The 11 bolt d’oro and the 16 magnum moon
Also like The 11 bolt d’oro and the 16 magnum moon
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Hell yea Blunt. High level handicapping at its finest. Let’s bring this thing home to NY.
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It all looks good to me, T. But what do I know. As long as you're happy with those play then you should be good.
Audible could be dangerous tomorrow, so you could have done plenty worse than him with that being your hometown horse. I think you'll get a comparable price tomorrow at the worst. Maybe even a little better.
Best of luck to you, bud.
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Thank you sir! I locked in about half of what I want to put down on Audible last night, just in case. Good luck to you today as well Shark. Let’s all win some $$$.
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Big day of races. Once again an unbelievable job done by you @Sharkey . So much great info and insight into not just the Derby but all of the races and horses running. I continue to learn a lot from this thread one of the best on the site. Also @t6p the thread wouldn't be the same w/o you either. Thanks to you as well.
Justify, Audible. Rosso as well as Hofburg are gonna be my top 4 plays, Justify being the horse I'm most invested in. GL boys. Now let's make some fucking money!
Justify, Audible. Rosso as well as Hofburg are gonna be my top 4 plays, Justify being the horse I'm most invested in. GL boys. Now let's make some fucking money!
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Good bets, IMO.
There is some fucking INSANE playage with the line going on now and My Boy Jack went from 30-1 to 5-1, ahead of Mendy, Bolt, MM, Good Mag and even Audible. The person dropping all this money clearly is thinking the derby will be a fast pace, hence setting it up for a long shot closer like Mine Dat Bird did in '09. The early talent is there, especially if Promises Fulfilled burns an early fast pace, like 46 and change, but I disagree that My Boy Jack will be the long shot to close well. The long shot I think CAN close well is Lone Sailor - the reason for this is that HE LOVES the track and ran the fastest pre 5f in his pre Derby breeze since Hardspun in 2009 on the Church Hill Track, and tho Hardspun did not win, he did very well and got second.
Another nice exotic is Vino Rosso, who Johnnie V chose to ride ahead of Audible and has been looking better than horse this week. Im going to mak a tri play with Justify, Bolt and Vino and substituting Bolt for Mendy.
If the professionals know what they are talking about, and all have a fair trip, when they rate these horses (Beyer i.e.), then Justify should win with Bolt D'Oro, Mendelssohn and Audible finishing up a strong second, third and fourth.
This Derby is the most stacked in maybe 50 years, so enjoy the race. I predict many of these horses will go on to be successful studs in the shed too. And what I am hoping for most is the birth of a super star, a Secretariat 2.0, which is actually very plausible with a fucking MONSTER like Justify in there, not to mention the other undefeated colt trying to break the curse of Apollo in Magnum Moon, Mendelssohn - who is one of the best bred horses to ever see the Derby and a horse that has fucking smeshed on all three surfaces, and finally Bolt, who was heralded Spectacular Bid as a 2 y/o, and has run SMOKING time forms and ratings before the race.
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Hey guys. Just put in some bets at the Venetian. Some straight plays to win on Hofburg and Good Magic (my daughter's pick is Good Magic and my wife took Free drop Billy LOL).Some exacta and trifecta boxes with those 3 plus some with Justify and Audible mixed in. Gonna head to the pool and start drinking. Will probably add some more vets later today to get Vino Rosso involved too.
BOL guys!
BOL guys!
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Anyone playing any of the earlier races? Or just the derby?
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