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Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

kenfloshogun said:
Anyone playing any of the earlier races? Or just the derby?
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Just the Derby for me, K, at least as far as Churchill Downs goes. I may play a few races at Belmont recreationally while waiting for the big one, though.
 
Sharkey said:
Just the Derby for me, K, at least as far as Churchill Downs goes. I may play a few races at Belmont recreationally while waiting for the big one, though.
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Sharkey, who's your top three and in what order? Any video of Mendelssohn since his one CHD workout? He did not look so hot but Justify looked not so hot on his first gallop but better on his second. Mendy was lathering up so badly that I almost wonder if he caught some type of cold flying or in quarantine - he was lathered up just jogging, no other horse got sweat out that badly. He is my big question mark, especially since we really have no litmus test as he has not run against the horses Bolt has.
 
ImNotSurpisedDonks! said:
Sharkey, who's your top three and in what order? Any video of Mendelssohn since his one CHD workout? He did not look so hot but Justify looked not so hot on his first gallop but better on his second. Mendy was lathering up so badly that I almost wonder if he caught some type of cold flying or in quarantine - he was lathered up just jogging, no other horse got sweat out that badly. He is my big question mark, especially since we really have no litmus test as he has not run against the horses Bolt has.
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I like Justify to win over Audible, Vino Rosso, Hofburg and Bolt d'Oro with a tiny bit of Solomini thrown in there to potentially round out a tri or super. Those plays I posted a couple are very likely what I end up playing;

$20 exacta key ($80) with Justify over the next four (no Solomini)
$5 trifecta key ($100) with Justify over the other five
$1 superfecta key ($60) with Justify over the other five
$1 trifecta box ($60) with the top five (no Solomini)


I haven't seen anything from Mendelssohn besides that first day at the track that you alluded to where he got all sweaty and such. I don't really care for Mendelssohn much regardless at the price he'll be offered at, but I wouldn't read too much into his first day out there since it's not uncommon at all for horses to get a little nervous with new surroundings.
 
I'm shocked that My Boy Jack is still holding at 5/1. When he opened at that yesterday I think everyone just chalked it down as one person making a sizable bet on him and that the odds would normalize for him. But now, with millions and millions in the pool, he's still sitting at that same 5/1. Craziness.
 
Sharkey said:
I'm shocked that My Boy Jack is still holding at 5/1. When he opened at that yesterday I think everyone just chalked it down as one person making a sizable bet on him and that the odds would normalize for him. But now, with millions and millions in the pool, he's still sitting at that same 5/1. Craziness.
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So strange sitting at 20/1 on B365 fixed odds.
 
kenfloshogun said:
So strange sitting at 20/1 on B365 fixed odds.
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20/1 is what he should be, K, and probably at the lowest. I have a 30/1 future bet on him and I don't even think his chances are equal to that. I have no idea why he's been bet like he has, though. It's insane.
 
Sharkey said:
I like Justify to win over Audible, Vino Rosso, Hofburg and Bolt d'Oro with a tiny bit of Solomini thrown in there to potentially round out a tri or super. Those plays I posted a couple are very likely what I end up playing;

$20 exacta key ($80) with Justify over the next four (no Solomini)
$5 trifecta key ($100) with Justify over the other five
$1 superfecta key ($60) with Justify over the other five
$1 trifecta box ($60) with the top five (no Solomini)


I haven't seen anything from Mendelssohn besides that first day at the track that you alluded to where he got all sweaty and such. I don't really care for Mendelssohn much regardless at the price he'll be offered at, but I wouldn't read too much into his first day out there since it's not uncommon at all for horses to get a little nervous with new surroundings.
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Interesting.

Justify - With comparisons to Secretariat and Point Given, there is more weight on this colt's shoulders than any other in this stack field. I also read that he has ran higher time forms and Byers than any horse since Beyer was invented - which is just silly considering he never ran at two. Anything less than a 6 length romp will be a let down to some. That being said, I wouldlike his chances versus the best eight in this field than to race a field of 20.

Vino has looked fantastic this week and I wonder why Velasquez picked him over Audible - it certainly speaks well for the colt, asJohnnie V knows more than probably anyone about the two. I really like him for the exotics, plus he is Curlin bred, and Curlin was a great mudder.

Audible and Bolt have both been very solid IMO and I expect them to be there.

Solomini is such a question mark to me but Baffert has a way of making these colts get on point on time for these big races.

Hofburg had the best work this week, IMO - it will be interesting. He has not shown the times or performances that the others in this field had, but being Juddmonte's star, the pedigree is there, the trainer is there and he could well be sitting on a fucking monster performance some time soon.

I've never been so excited for a Derby since I was probably a kid and Alydar's golden sun, Easy Goer, was going up against the west coast Sunday Silence - those were the days. The difference being then, is that there were really only 2 horses that could win the race, and today, there are eight and maybe even more if someone's game increases heavily (i.e. My Boy Jack).
 
Sharkey said:
I like Justify to win over Audible, Vino Rosso, Hofburg and Bolt d'Oro with a tiny bit of Solomini thrown in there to potentially round out a tri or super. Those plays I posted a couple are very likely what I end up playing;

$20 exacta key ($80) with Justify over the next four (no Solomini)
$5 trifecta key ($100) with Justify over the other five
$1 superfecta key ($60) with Justify over the other five
$1 trifecta box ($60) with the top five (no Solomini)


I haven't seen anything from Mendelssohn besides that first day at the track that you alluded to where he got all sweaty and such. I don't really care for Mendelssohn much regardless at the price he'll be offered at, but I wouldn't read too much into his first day out there since it's not uncommon at all for horses to get a little nervous with new surroundings.
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Dang! Solomini is at 64/1, the 3rd most dog in the whole race. That is mindblowing that My Boy Jack is 5-1 and Solomini is 64-1. Whacko.
 
Sharkey said:
I'm shocked that My Boy Jack is still holding at 5/1. When he opened at that yesterday I think everyone just chalked it down as one person making a sizable bet on him and that the odds would normalize for him. But now, with millions and millions in the pool, he's still sitting at that same 5/1. Craziness.
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I alost wonder if it is some conglomerate pushing up the pot to make him 'the second betting favorite in the derby' for his future stud portfolio. The money on him has gone up proportionately, which makes absolutely NO SENSE if someone wanted to grab a good price on a long shot, but 5-1 holdin' is insane.
 
ImNotSurpisedDonks! said:
Interesting.

Justify - With comparisons to Secretariat and Point Given, there is more weight on this colt's shoulders than any other in this stack field. I also read that he has ran higher time forms and Byers than any horse since Beyer was invented - which is just silly considering he never ran at two. Anything less than a 6 length romp will be a let down to some. That being said, I wouldlike his chances versus the best eight in this field than to race a field of 20.

Vino has looked fantastic this week and I wonder why Velasquez picked him over Audible - it certainly speaks well for the colt, asJohnnie V knows more than probably anyone about the two. I really like him for the exotics, plus he is Curlin bred, and Curlin was a great mudder.

Audible and Bolt have both been very solid IMO and I expect them to be there.

Solomini is such a question mark to me but Baffert has a way of making these colts get on point on time for these big races.

Hofburg had the best work this week, IMO - it will be interesting. He has not shown the times or performances that the others in this field had, but being Juddmonte's star, the pedigree is there, the trainer is there and he could well be sitting on a fucking monster performance some time soon.

I've never been so excited for a Derby since I was probably a kid and Alydar's golden sun, Easy Goer, was going up against the west coast Sunday Silence - those were the days. The difference being then, is that there were really only 2 horses that could win the race, and today, there are eight and maybe even more if someone's game increases heavily (i.e. My Boy Jack).
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Justify is really talented, but he isn't quite that fast as to have the highest Beyer ever. He's "only" ran a high BSF of 107, which is very good for a 3 year-old heading into the Derby (not nearly the best since BSF have been around, though), but it pales compared to what the best older horses will run. e.g. Gun Runner was given a 120 BSF when he won the Pegasus earlier this year. Some other horses this year have ran 110+. Arrogate ran a few 120+ BSF races in a row during his run. I think the highest Beyer on record since it's inception was a 130+ by a sprinter a decade or two ago, but Andy Beyer himself estimates that Secretariat's Belmont win would have produced the highest figure if they were around back then. I think he estimated it at a 139. So yeah. Justify is fast, and is the fastest on the Beyer scale (Mendelssohn's 106 BSF is 2nd fastest). But he has a long ways to go before being talked amongst the fastest ever.

I just need him to win regardless of margin. Don't need him to be Secretariat. Or even Point Given, who I still think might be the best and most talented 3 year-old since 2000. You probably named the horse who I think was the best 3 year-old in my time, though. Easy Goer. Amazing horse right there with amazing stride mechanics.
 
ImNotSurpisedDonks! said:
Dang! Solomini is at 64/1, the 3rd most dog in the whole race. That is mindblowing that My Boy Jack is 5-1 and Solomini is 64-1. Whacko.
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I just wanted a hard trying grinding type like Solomini who should get the distance better than most and who'd also be a price. Like I mentioned earlier, he's a low ceiling, high floor type to me. Don't expect him to contend for the win at all, but maybe he could get in there for 3rd or 4th.
 
I'm going to try the #12 Restoring Hope to win/place here in race 10 at Churchill (Pat Day Mile). Currently at 7/1.

Sucks a bunch that we're getting yet enough wet running of the Derby.
 
Sharkey said:
I like Justify to win over Audible, Vino Rosso, Hofburg and Bolt d'Oro with a tiny bit of Solomini thrown in there to potentially round out a tri or super. Those plays I posted a couple are very likely what I end up playing;

$20 exacta key ($80) with Justify over the next four (no Solomini)
$5 trifecta key ($100) with Justify over the other five
$1 superfecta key ($60) with Justify over the other five
$1 trifecta box ($60) with the top five (no Solomini)
Click to expand...

In with these above plays and then also went small on Hofberg across the board since he's at 25/1.

Best of luck everyone.
 
Sharkey said:
In with these above plays and then also went small on Hofberg across the board since he's at 25/1.

Best of luck everyone.
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GL Shark, already hit Hofburg at a terrible 15-1 price that locked in so I can't get that price but just bet him to hit show and place as well. Pretty big on Justify here, tho. You seem to love him and I trust ya more than most ppl on here. Win or lose we're gonna have fun. The Derby doesn't come around everyday. Very special occasion for us, you know better than most ppl. Have fun and GL to us!
 
Joined you guys with a sprinkle on Hofburg across the board. Thanks again @Sharkey for everything. Best of luck all!
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
GL Shark, already hit Hofburg at a terrible 15-1 price that locked in so I can't get that price but just bet him to hit show and place as well. Pretty big on Justify here, tho. You seem to love him and I trust ya more than most ppl on here. Win or lose we're gonna have fun. The Derby doesn't come around everyday. Very special occasion for us, you know better than most ppl. Have fun and GL to us!
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Cheers bud. You know I like a horse a lot if I'm relying on him so much as the favourite. Just think there's a lot of potential for him to dominate this race, although the odds are against him even winning. But hey. Wished this was a dry track, though. In this sloppy shit we may end up seeing some clown show results. We'll see.
 
1st - Justify
2nd - Hofberg
3rd - Vino Rosso
4th - Solomini

Would be the ideal result for me.
 
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