Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Haha, I appreciate it Shark but getting lucky is more like it.

You absolutely pointed me in the direction with that post though. Not to mention the fact that I used to your numbers as the primary factor in what I ended up playing.

Well, I'm just glad one of us were able to cash some tickets in this race and it sounds like you crushed, so that is awesome. Hitting it in the Derby makes it that much moreso. I just wished Audible had a few more inches in him then we'd both be cashing.

 

[Sharkey]

 

[t6p]

Well, I'm just glad one of us were able to cash some tickets in this race and it sounds like you crushed, so that is awesome. Hitting it in the Derby makes it that much moreso. I just wished Audible had a few more inches in him then we'd both be cashing.

Same here my friend. I would be much happier right now if you had hit some of your plays too.

 

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

Justify is really talented, but he isn't quite that fast as to have the highest Beyer ever. He's "only" ran a high BSF of 107, which is very good for a 3 year-old heading into the Derby (not nearly the best since BSF have been around, though), but it pales compared to what the best older horses will run. e.g. Gun Runner was given a 120 BSF when he won the Pegasus earlier this year. Some other horses this year have ran 110+. Arrogate ran a few 120+ BSF races in a row during his run. I think the highest Beyer on record since it's inception was a 130+ by a sprinter a decade or two ago, but Andy Beyer himself estimates that Secretariat's Belmont win would have produced the highest figure if they were around back then. I think he estimated it at a 139. So yeah. Justify is fast, and is the fastest on the Beyer scale (Mendelssohn's 106 BSF is 2nd fastest). But he has a long ways to go before being talked amongst the fastest ever.

I just need him to win regardless of margin. Don't need him to be Secretariat. Or even Point Given, who I still think might be the best and most talented 3 year-old since 2000. You probably named the horse who I think was the best 3 year-old in my time, though. Easy Goer. Amazing horse right there with amazing stride mechanics.

RE Beyer: I heard Justify ran something like a 114 at Santa Anita....maybe I'm mistaken? I do know that many of the pundits have said that his numbers were higher than any pre Derby horse since Beyers were invented.

As you point out, yes, Secretariat would have gotten the highest for his Belmont stakes if Beyers had existed. Damascus would have been up there too - totally over shadowed and under appreciated horse IMO.

Arrogate was a machine, his numbers were off the chart. What the fook happened to him?? Arrogate and AP have the best BSF's since Frankel, and what is scary is that Baffert has hinted at Justify being better, saying "He is the best looking horse that I have ever brought to the track". Those are massive words from the games best trainer.

There is certainly a long way to go with Justify as you say, but to me, he has seemed like a men amongst boys since his option claiming allowance race. When Chrome came around and people were saying "Affirmed part 2", I did not really see it, tho I knew he was a great horse. Big Brown was special, but not even he stuck out as Justify does with his aura, presence and mechanics. Point Given looks like the closest recent thing to him, but not even he won the Derby and shown the same competitive indomitable spirit. The way that he covers ground and moves is something that no time rating can calculate, and just the innate competition that he has in him, which has been evident in even his workouts (throwing a hissy fit when a horse passed him), really makes me feel this is possibly a bicentennial type colt.

 

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

Holy Smokies! D Wayne was right that there would be plenty of surprises. After the trifecta, it is a who's who of long shots. Good on 80+ year old D Wayne having Bravazo come in sixth in such a stacked field.

Bolt D'Oro was the biggest shock, as he had great position, a good break, has ALWAYS been consistent and got the mane slapped off his face. Me thinks Ruis is simply ill equipped to deal with such a talented horse and can not get them as fit as a Baffert. It is a shame too because I think Bolt could have been really special with the correct tutelage.

 

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

Let's just hope he stays healthy. As a big bodied type, one little tiny thing going wrong with him could set his whole running mechanics out of whack. Moreso than with smaller horses.

Did you see him and Baffert today? I could not tell if it was because the shipping boots were wrapped too tight or something else, but he was limping and favoring his left hind. I have horses so I know that a freshly wrapped shipping boot or trail boot can cause the horse to look like it's limping.

 

[Sharkey]

RE Beyer: I heard Justify ran something like a 114 at Santa Anita....maybe I'm mistaken? I do know that many of the pundits have said that his numbers were higher than any pre Derby horse since Beyers were invented.

As you point out, yes, Secretariat would have gotten the highest for his Belmont stakes if Beyers had existed. Damascus would have been up there too - totally over shadowed and under appreciated horse IMO.

Arrogate was a machine, his numbers were off the chart. What the fook happened to him?? Arrogate and AP have the best BSF's since Frankel, and what is scary is that Baffert has hinted at Justify being better, saying "He is the best looking horse that I have ever brought to the track". Those are massive words from the games best trainer.

There is certainly a long way to go with Justify as you say, but to me, he has seemed like a men amongst boys since his option claiming allowance race. When Chrome came around and people were saying "Affirmed part 2", I did not really see it, tho I knew he was a great horse. Big Brown was special, but not even he stuck out as Justify does with his aura, presence and mechanics. Point Given looks like the closest recent thing to him, but not even he won the Derby and shown the same competitive indomitable spirit. The way that he covers ground and moves is something that no time rating can calculate, and just the innate competition that he has in him, which has been evident in even his workouts (throwing a hissy fit when a horse passed him), really makes me feel this is possibly a bicentennial type colt.

114 was Justify's Brisnet figure for winning the Santa Anita Derby. His Beyer for that race was a 107. While high compared to what we see in recent years, it's quite a ways down the list as far as pre-Derby BSF go. Even as far as Derby winners over the past 20 years. e.g. Real Quiet earned a 108 BSF in winning the San Felipe in 1998 before going on to win the Derby. Charismatic won the Lexington with a 108 in winning the Lexington before winning the Derby. Fusaichi Pegasus earned a 111 winning the Wood in 2000 before he won the Derby. War Emblem earned a 112 winning the Illinois Derby before winning the Derby in 2002. Smarty Jones in 2004 had earned a 112 and a 109 before winning the Derby. Etc, etc. Even a horse you mentioned, California Chrome, had earned a higher BSF going into the Derby than did Justify this year. Chrome got a 108 in winning the San Felipe that year then followed it up with the same 107 that Justify earned when he won his SA Derby.

Justify is a fast horse. Really fast. Really talented and moves about as good mechanically as you'd want in a race horse of his size. Lots of potential for him to be something really special if they keep him in racing beyond just the Triple Crown season. He could be a rare freak. But he still has a long ways to go before we start talking about him in relation to historical speed figures, whether it be Beyers, Brisnet, Timeform, Thorograph, etc.

Justify's dam sire, Ghostzapper, is probably the most talented horse regardless of age I've seen in the last couple of decades. He was a running fool who put up some monster Beyer figures in his time. he still has the highest official BSF ever given out in a route race when he earned a 128 winning the Iselin in 2004, and had also earned 120+ figures on at least three other occasions. He was a brilliant horse, who unfortunately couldn't stay as healthy as everyone would like. Ghostzapper's sire, Awesome Again, won what most people consider the most talent heavy Breeders Cup Classic in history in 1998 when the race featured a bunch of horse who had produced 120+ BSF races (Skip Away, Silver Charm, Gentleman, etc).

Damascus is a great horse. Tremendous. You had to be to get the best of Dr er on a couple of occasions no matter how much "help" you got in those races. While Secretariat's Belmont win is probably the most brilliant display from a dirt horse we've ever seen and maybe ever will see, I think Dr er just may be the most consistently fast dirt horse we've seen yet.

I think Arrogate may have ran the last few races of his career with an underlying issue somewhere. Nothing serious enough to keep him off the track. But enough to hinder his ability to run at his best. I remember watching his workouts before the BC Classic last year and was noticing his stride length wasn't quite as long as it had been when he was in peak form.

 

[Sharkey]

Holy Smokies! D Wayne was right that there would be plenty of surprises. After the trifecta, it is a who's who of long shots. Good on 80+ year old D Wayne having Bravazo come in sixth in such a stacked field.

Bolt D'Oro was the biggest shock, as he had great position, a good break, has ALWAYS been consistent and got the mane slapped off his face. Me thinks Ruis is simply ill equipped to deal with such a talented horse and can not get them as fit as a Baffert. It is a shame too because I think Bolt could have been really special with the correct tutelage.

I think Bolt may have been defeated by a herd dynamics standpoint myself, which I thought was a possibility entering the Derby. In the SA Derby there was a moment where he had that look that he may have conceded herd leadership to Justify in the stretch. In yesterday's race when he his jockey did ask him to attack Justify on the turn, to me Bolt also had the look of a horse who had already conceded leadership to his target. It was like he was saying "nope, he's the boss and I won't challenge him for it". Thus he threw in the towel. We see that happen all the time in horse racing. An alpha horse like Bolt thinks he's all that and the boss out there on the track, and then he gets beat on the square giving his best effort. He's no longer the alpha horse he thought he was anymore, and as a result he won't try nearly as hard for that herd leadership position when confronting another alpha horse out there. Last year's Derby winner, Always Dreaming is an example of this I think, although there are many. Always Dreaming was on a 4 race winning streak, and probably thinking he was as alpha as they come. Then Classic Empire took him on last year in the Preakness right from the gate, and Always Dreaming realized he wasn't the alpha horse. He gave up that race before fading to 8th, and hasn't really been competitive in any of his races since, including this past Friday when he got drubbed by daylight in a G2 race. That happens and it happens a lot. Some horses are mentally equipped to handle defeat from a herd dynamics standpoint. Others aren't and are never the same again.

 

[Sharkey]

Did you see him and Baffert today? I could not tell if it was because the shipping boots were wrapped too tight or something else, but he was limping and favoring his left hind. I have horses so I know that a freshly wrapped shipping boot or trail boot can cause the horse to look like it's limping.

Yeah, I saw that. That definitely didn't look right. You'd expect a horse to be sore after what he did yesterday and under those sloppy conditions. But there was certainly some isolated moments of him favouring his left rear like you said. Hopefully it's not anything beyond just a bad night's sleep or something. Baffert did parade him in front of the media/cameras, so I'd like to think he wouldn't do that if there was something really wrong with Justify. But we'll see. Definitely something to pay attention to, though, that's for sure.

 

[Sharkey]

Speaking of Beyers;





Doesn't exactly show just how good Justify's effort was yesterday, but hey. When taking into account track conditions and the track variant, TimeformUS had the adjusted pace as being 0:45.52 to the half, 1:10.06, 1:35.93 to the mile, and then 2:01.15 at the finish. Justify was pressing that really fast pace early in the race when just outside the pace setter, had to repel a couple of challengers around the turn, and yet still had enough to keep going to the line. It's a much better effort than what that 103 BSF will indicate.

 

[Sharkey]

Justify vs Sporting Chance in the Preakness.

Place those bets!

 

[Sharkey]

Hastings will quickly become my new favourite track at this rate.

 

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

Yeah, I saw that. That definitely didn't look right. You'd expect a horse to be sore after what he did yesterday and under those sloppy conditions. But there was certainly some isolated moments of him favouring his left rear like you said. Hopefully it's not anything beyond just a bad night's sleep or something. Baffert did parade him in front of the media/cameras, so I'd like to think he wouldn't do that if there was something really wrong with Justify. But we'll see. Definitely something to pay attention to, though, that's for sure.

So, good news, atleast if you are a Justify fan. Baffert said he had a condition called 'scratches', and per the Paullick report, he said it was no problem and he Horse would be ready to go in two weeks.

Apparently the gravel he was walking on caused a little soreness but there is another video of him walking on dirt in the shed row and he's fine. And I personally know from my horses that their feet can get very sensitive on hard surfaces, especially when they get wet and the frog is softened up.

 

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

I think Bolt may have been defeated by a herd dynamics standpoint myself, which I thought was a possibility entering the Derby. In the SA Derby there was a moment where he had that look that he may have conceded herd leadership to Justify in the stretch. In yesterday's race when he his jockey did ask him to attack Justify on the turn, to me Bolt also had the look of a horse who had already conceded leadership to his target. It was like he was saying "nope, he's the boss and I won't challenge him for it". Thus he threw in the towel. We see that happen all the time in horse racing. An alpha horse like Bolt thinks he's all that and the boss out there on the track, and then he gets beat on the square giving his best effort. He's no longer the alpha horse he thought he was anymore, and as a result he won't try nearly as hard for that herd leadership position when confronting another alpha horse out there. Last year's Derby winner, Always Dreaming is an example of this I think, although there are many. Always Dreaming was on a 4 race winning streak, and probably thinking he was as alpha as they come. Then Classic Empire took him on last year in the Preakness right from the gate, and Always Dreaming realized he wasn't the alpha horse. He gave up that race before fading to 8th, and hasn't really been competitive in any of his races since, including this past Friday when he got drubbed by daylight in a G2 race. That happens and it happens a lot. Some horses are mentally equipped to handle defeat from a herd dynamics standpoint. Others aren't and are never the same again.

Interesting what you say about herd dynamics is certainly a possibility. It is so strange, after Bolt got beat by Good Magic and Solomini, he has not been the same and has not even crossed the finish line first one time. It is like he is OK with losing now. I train horses for riding and do colt starting, and the most important thing to do is establish a relationship with the horse, with you being Alpha and them being Omega, and it is their readiness to submit to a leader that is the only reason us predatorary humans can hop on their backs and have them do amazing things.

I still think Bolt is a phenomenal horse and I wonder what would happen to him with a better trainer, but seeing as Ruis owns him too, I do not think Bolt will ever get the training he needs to be next level.

 

[Sharkey]

 

[Sharkey]

Actually it does make sense from a Beyer standpoint that Mendelssohn was sitting on a poor race. Not "last place" poor, mind you. But he still had a very regressive pattern to his races just on the surface. That's not looking into the manner and track conditions of his last race which produced the big BSF either. Track conditions and the early pace he was forced to run probably had a lot to do with how badly he faded late as well.

@ImNotSurpisedDonks!

If I may expand on this point with Mendelssohn's thorograph numbers over his last four races before the Derby;

7 1/4, 9, 5 1/2, -4 1/2

If you're not familiar with thorograph, the lower the number the better the performance was according to them, so him having a negative thorograph number is a huge effort by him. Especially since it was 10 points better on thorograph than he had ever ran before.

Now according to thorograph's own data going back 25+ years, horses who have improved their thorograph number by more than 3 points in their final prep before the Derby have seen 81% of them regress in the Derby itself, with 62% of them having regressed badly enough to receive what is classified as an X race (more than 4 point regression). And that's just with a 3+ point improvement. Not the ridiculous 10 point improvement that Mendelssohn had.

North American figure makers like Beyer or Brisnet numbers aren't given out for European runners for the most part beyond the occasional estimate. But Mendelssohn was given an 86 BSF for his BC Juvenile Turf win and then it was estimated that he got a 106 BSF for the UAE Derby. Without knowing what figure he would have gotten for the race in between (if given, it'd certainly be much, much closer to the 86 than 106 based on the thorograph and RPR he was given, which was 115 in both the BC race last fall and his first start this spring), that's a huge increase in his figure over a span of two races when considering the fact that the UAE Derby was Mendelssohn's 7th career race. Some improvement can certainly be expected going from 2 to 3 for him, but is he really going to be a 106 BSF in his 8th career start (the Derby) after having been maybe an estimated 85-90 BSF (tops) over his first 6 career starts? To me the 106 he earned is a clear outlier with him, as is the -4 1/2 he earned on thorograph.

Just on the surface he had the look of a regressive horse just based on that stuff alone, but when you factor in other things it looked even moreso. Like him only flying over and arriving at the track 5 days before the Derby and then having to spend two full days in quarantine before he was allowed to hit the track for the first time on Thursday. Or that "first time on dirt after turf" angle that exists in horse racing, and I think I talked about on here last year just before Good Samaritan took the Jim Dandy for a few of us. But then also consider the circumstances in which he earned that 106 BSF in the UAE Derby.

This spring at Meydan, which is where the UAE Derby takes place at, there were 17 races that were ran on the dirt over there. Out of those 17, 16 of them were won by a horse who rode the rail the whole way and led wire-to-wire. Mendelssohn`s UAE Derby win was one of those 16. Not including Mendelssohn, 13 of those 16 wire-to-wire winners have ran since. 12 of them regressed their next race according to their RPR with 11 of them regressing by more than 10 points. 8 of those regressed by 20 or more points on their RPR. The one horse who didn`t regress (1 point RPR improvement) returned in another dirt race at Meydan where it finished 2nd by following the wire-to-wire winner along the rail the whole way. What that tells us is that the way the Meydan track was playing had a huge say in the outcome of those dirt races, and those that got to the rail on the lead were seeing their performances being flattered significantly by the track. Including Mendelssohn`s performances where he earned that 106 BSF.

The 106 BSF he earned winning the UAE Derby is what it is. He ran a fast race. But that was also a 106 earned under a significant track bias that favoured him as evident by all the other horses who also got the same trip he did over the Meydan track and then regressed (most by a lot) when they couldn`t get that same rail trip on the lead in their next races.

People who bet Mendelssohn down to 6/1 made the mistake of thinking that the 106 BSF he earned was a true indication of his ability going into the Derby without considering the circumstances in which it was earned or considered the very regressive nature of his form when it came to pattern handicapping. Now the last place finish he got in the Derby isn`t indicative of his ability or what his true chances were either. But still.

I`m proud to say that our resident trifecta crushing Derby expert @t6p would have never landed on a horse like Mendelssohn in this race. Nor would have @BluntTrauma21. They know better when it comes to pattern handicapping and when horses run what looks like an outlier figure. They know that, even though those "jump up" types do win on the rare occasion, they are terrible bets in the long run regardless if it`s in the Derby or not.

 

[t6p]

@Sharkey

That is an impressive sounding title. If I ever lose my job I’ll have to add “trifecta crushing derby expert” to my resume and use you as a reference.

 

[Sharkey]

@Sharkey

That is an impressive sounding title. If I ever lose my job I’ll have to add “trifecta crushing derby expert” to my resume and use you as a reference.

Well, if the shoe fits. You do it again next year, T, and I'm adding the Grand Master prefix to it all.

I need this #12 horse at Evangeline Downs as we speak. This is the first time I've ever played this track I do believe, and so far so good today, although no great prices worth bragging about.

 

[Sharkey]

Some numbers for the Belmont prep that is taking place this weekend, and then an early look at the Preakness as well based on the current probables or possibles;


==========

G3 Peter Pan Stakes (Race 10 at Belmont on May 12th);

#5 Diamond King 7/2 - 449.3
#6 High North 4/1 - 425.2
#4 Blended Citizen 6/1 - 418.7
#1 Core Beliefs 2/1 - 414.9
#2 Zing Zang 10/1 - 409.3
#3 Just Whistle 5/1 - 401.8
#8 Transistor 15/1 - 381.0
#7 Gotta Go 15/1 - 377.1

==========

G1 Preakness Stakes (Race 13 at Pimlico on May 19th);

Justify - 496.8
Good Magic - 480.3
Diamond King - 439.9
Bolt d'Oro - 423.5
Quip - 423.2
Bravazo - 421.3
Lone Sailor - 420.3
Tenfold - 419.1
Sporting Chance - 404.4
Pony Up - 399.3
Givemeaminit - 397.3

==========


I'm not sure which race he'll eventually run in, but it looks like I'm going to have a few bucks on Diamond King this weekend with a win bet or next as an underneath the Derby winner option at a big price.

Hey @t6p, didn't you hit the Preakness trifecta a couple of years ago when Exaggerator won?

 

[t6p]

Some numbers for the Belmont prep that is taking place this weekend, and then an early look at the Preakness as well based on the current probables or possibles;


==========

G3 Peter Pan Stakes (Race 10 at Belmont on May 12th);

#5 Diamond King 7/2 - 449.3
#6 High North 4/1 - 425.2
#4 Blended Citizen 6/1 - 418.7
#1 Core Beliefs 2/1 - 414.9
#2 Zing Zang 10/1 - 409.3
#3 Just Whistle 5/1 - 401.8
#8 Transistor 15/1 - 381.0
#7 Gotta Go 15/1 - 377.1

==========

G1 Preakness Stakes (Race 13 at Pimlico on May 19th);

Justify - 496.8
Good Magic - 480.3
Diamond King - 439.9
Bolt d'Oro - 423.5
Quip - 423.2
Bravazo - 421.3
Lone Sailor - 420.3
Tenfold - 419.1
Sporting Chance - 404.4
Pony Up - 399.3
Givemeaminit - 397.3

==========


I'm not sure which race he'll eventually run in, but it looks like I'm going to have a few bucks on Diamond King this weekend with a win bet or next as an underneath the Derby winner option at a big price.

Hey @t6p, didn't you hit the Preakness trifecta a couple of years ago when Exaggerator won?

What a memory on you Shark. I looked back at my account and you're right, I did. If I remember correctly, I was tailing you on that (as usual) but on a whim I decided to box them. Looks like it paid about 73/1. Funny, that was a sloppy track too, like this year's Derby.

It's your turn to nail of these nice tris on a triple crown race bud. It's only right since I wouldn't have a chance if it wasn't for all your hard work that you share with all of us.