Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

It looks like Lunar Heat scratched out of race 8, so I guess I'm going to go with the other Lunar in the race. #4 Lunar Folly at 5/1 who I had ranked 3rd on the numbers.

 

[Sharkey]

Oh, so you're saying I can pick a winner every now and then afterall?

 

[Sharkey]

By daylight in race 5. Very nice.

 

[Sharkey]

These prices aren't anything to brag about with one being 2/1 and the other 5/2, but hey, at least they're getting it done and neither were the favourite. My horse in race 4 made a good account of himself too being in contention til the very end before fading a bit late to finish 2 lengths back at the line.

 

[Sharkey]

Eek. Siena Slew made up a bunch of ground late, but lost by a neck at the line in a 3 way finish. Would have paid almost 6/1 if she did get there. Too bad.

 

[Sharkey]

As long as Lunar Folly breaks from the gate well and gets over to the rail he should have a very good shot. Big field of 11 horses, though, so who knows. Plus he wasn't my first choice this race.

 

[Sharkey]

Well, he sucked. Finished somewhere in the back half. Oh well. Managed to make a bit of a profit on the day anyways, and the top ranked horse on the numbers won every race I played today. Good to know since I attempted to calculate pace patterns into the numbers for the first time. What sucks about that is Free Drop Billy may end up being my top ranked horse on the numbers going into the Blue Grass this Saturday based on him having both the NPT and E2 angles going into the race (as well as everything else we calculate), and I really don't think much of that horse.

Edit - That's not true actually, as Alycar Flash was my top ranked horse in race 4 (I had the eventual winner ranked 3rd). The top ranked horse did win the other four races, though.

 

[Sharkey]

I'm going to try the #6 Bearsatlanticmist to win and place ($4/$6) here in race 8 at Oaklawn. I've got her ranked 2nd, but only a little bit behind the #7 horse (even money favourite), and she's currently 8/1 on the board.

 

[t6p]

Well, he sucked. Finished somewhere in the back half. Oh well. Managed to make a bit of a profit on the day anyways, and the top ranked horse on the numbers won every race I played today. Good to know since I attempted to calculate pace patterns into the numbers for the first time. What sucks about that is Free Drop Billy may end up being my top ranked horse on the numbers going into the Blue Grass this Saturday based on him having both the NPT and E2 angles going into the race (as well as everything else we calculate), and I really don't think much of that horse.

Edit - That's not true actually, as Alycar Flash was my top ranked horse in race 4 (I had the eventual winner ranked 3rd). The top ranked horse did win the other four races, though.

Awesome Shark! 4 out of 5 is damn impressive.

 

[Sharkey]

Awesome Shark! 4 out of 5 is damn impressive.

I only cashed with two of them, T, since the other two that won while being tops on the number were also the favourites, and I try to avoid those when I can. The race I played at Oaklawn was also won by the top numbered horse, but that was once again the favourite. So 5 of 6. Could've hit four exactas today by boxing the top 3, as well as a couple of tris. But I need to see this new pace pattern addition to the formula find some price horses before I call it a success. I mean, it kinda did the other day when that 60/1 shot finished 3rd. But today at Mahoning Valley it was hard seeing many price horses come in going in and that's the way it played out.

 

[t6p]

I only cashed with two of them, T, since the other two that won while being tops on the number were also the favourites, and I try to avoid those when I can. The race I played at Oaklawn was also won by the top numbered horse, but that was once again the favourite. So 5 of 6. Could've hit four exactas today by boxing the top 3, as well as a couple of tris. But I need to see this new pace pattern addition to the formula find some price horses before I call it a success. I mean, it kinda did the other day when that 60/1 shot finished 3rd. But today at Mahoning Valley it was hard seeing many price horses come in going in and that's the way it played out.

Gotcha. It sounds like the formula is working it’s magic. I’m looking forward to seeing you nail some of those exactas and tris.

 

[Sharkey]

Gotcha. It sounds like the formula is working it’s magic. I’m looking forward to seeing you nail some of those exactas and tris.

In time maybe. I'll probably be a Mr Play It Safe for a little while. I got hurt pretty bad trying to play exotics on Saturday and Monday, so probably just straight bets from me for the most part in the days ahead.

 

[Sharkey]

Playing $5 win bets on all these horses today;

==========

Gulfstream;

Race 1 - #5 Tea and Cricket 5/2
Race 6 - #7 Bun Bun 7/2
Race 7 - #4 Miss Contessa 6/1

==========

Oaklawn;

Race 1 - #2 Wildcat Shoals 12/1
Race 2 - #2 Mr Ark 6/1
Race 4 - #8 Desert Madam 3/2
Race 5 - #9 Future Express 10/1
Race 6 - #8 Anita Marie 20/1
Race 7 - #9 Luvinmeiseasy 12/1
Race 8 - #5 Sticksstaelydude 5/1

==========

Santa Anita;

Race 3 - #1 Here and There 3/1
Race 6 - #2 Tiz Deliteful 6/1

==========

 

[Sharkey]

The fields and morning line odds for the three big Derby prep races taking place on Saturday.


G1 Santa Anita Derby;

#1 Instilled Regard 5/2
#2 Orbit Rain 50/1
#3 Bolt d'Oro 6/5
#4 Jimmy Chila 30/1
#5 Pepe Tono 20/1
#6 Justify 4/5
#7 Core Beliefs 20/1


G2 Blue Grass Stakes;

#1 Zing Zang 30/1
#2 Sporting Chance 10/1
#3 California Night 30/1
#4 Kanthaka 10/1
#5 Quip 6/1
#6 Marconi 15/1
#7 Blended Citizen
#8 Gotta Go 30/1
#9 Tiz Mischief 30/1
#10 Free Drop Billy 5/1
#11 Good Magic 2/1
#12 Flameaway 6/1
#13 Machismo 20/1
#14 Arawak 30/1
#15 Determinant 20/1 (AE)


G2 Wood Memorial;

#1 Heartfullofstars 20/1
#2 Firenze Fire 6/1
#3 Evaluator 20/1
#4 Old Time Revival 6/1
#5 Enticed 6/5
#6 Catch Twenty Two 50/1
#7 King Zachary 20/1
#8 Restoring Hope 4/1
#9 Vino Russo 9/2


The Santa Anita Derby basically looks unplayable at first look unless somebody has a very narrow opinion of the race in the exacta or trifecta.

The Blue Grass is interesting, although filled with horses I don't care much about backing. But somebody is going to win and in a 14 horse field, the payouts should be good regardless. Free Drop Billy should look really good on the numbers and pointing to a prime effort whatever a prime effort is for him. Good Magic looks solid, but is also going to be a heavy favourite. Marconi might be okay at a price.

The Wood might be the best betting race of the three, though, with Enticed such a heavy favourite. He's okay and pretty good, but I don't think he's 6/5 good. Old Time Revival arguable ran a better race than him last time and is a much better price. That one may just be getting good at the right time. Or that last race of his was a fluke. Who knows. This race seems ripe for an upsetter attempt, though, and possibly one of the newer faces like Restoring Hope or even King Zachary at a big price.

 

[Sharkey]

Free Drop Billy is going into the Blue Grass racing in his 3rd start off the layoff, having ran a new pace top last time out, having the E2 angle to his credit, and after having paired up his last two figures. Each one of those by themselves hint at a horse that may be ready to give a peak effort. But all four? Scary. I spent all winter and spring bashing this guy to my wife and calling him an overbet bum amongst many other things. But there's a whole lot to like about him going into to this race beyond just those signs pointing to a peak effort coming for him, and for once, he may not get bet as much as he should get bet.

 

[t6p]

Playing $5 win bets on all these horses today;

==========

Gulfstream;

Race 1 - #5 Tea and Cricket 5/2
Race 6 - #7 Bun Bun 7/2
Race 7 - #4 Miss Contessa 6/1

==========

Oaklawn;

Race 1 - #2 Wildcat Shoals 12/1
Race 2 - #2 Mr Ark 6/1
Race 4 - #8 Desert Madam 3/2
Race 5 - #9 Future Express 10/1
Race 6 - #8 Anita Marie 20/1
Race 7 - #9 Luvinmeiseasy 12/1
Race 8 - #5 Sticksstaelydude 5/1

==========

Santa Anita;

Race 3 - #1 Here and There 3/1
Race 6 - #2 Tiz Deliteful 6/1

==========

Probably won't be able to watch, but tailing all. Thanks for sharing Shark and good luck!

 

[Sharkey]

Probably won't be able to watch, but tailing all. Thanks for sharing Shark and good luck!

Best of luck, T. I'm probably going to miss most of them too (especially the Oaklawn portion) since I didn't get much work done yesterday.

 

[Sharkey]

How disrepectful is that? Bolt d'Oro is a multiple G1 winner at two, and just "won" a G2 prep race at three in his last race. He's also been most people's favourite to win the Derby for months now. And yet, the morning line maker says that some young 2 race upstart named Justify, who hasn't competed in a stakes race yet nevermind won one, should be the betting favourite over Bolt. But it's probably accurate and representative of what's going to happen on Saturday too. Unless Justify proves to be a headcase or something, I'm having trouble seeing Bolt beating him or even being all that competitive with him.

 

[Sharkey]

Got one of the three preps for Saturday out of the way while I'm waiting for the betting to be open at Gulfstream;

==========

G1 Santa Anita Derby (race 9 at Santa Anita);

#6 Justify (4/5) - 568.8
#3 Bolt d'Oro (6/5) - 522.7
#1 Instilled Regard (5/2) - 504.3
#5 Pepe Tono (20/1) - 474.6
#4 Jimmy Chila (30/1) - 465.0
#7 Core Beliefs (20/1) - 461.2
#2 Orbot Rain (50/1) - 444.2

==========

I'll probably just try a #6 Justify over #1 Instilled Regard straight exacta for $10 and hope that it pays in the 8/1 range if it does hit. Then play a #6 Justify over #3 Bolt d'Oro over #5 Pepe Tono straight trifecta for $5. Don't see anything worth playing as far as straight bets on a single horse goes. Rooting for Instilled Regard to run a good race regardless since I have a future bet on him, and need him to at least make into the Derby field.

 

[Sharkey]

Alright, none of my horses scratched at Gulfstream, so I'm in. Let's have ourselves a day @t6p!