Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[t6p]

Alright, none of my horses scratched at Gulfstream, so I'm in. Let's have ourselves a day @t6p!

That's what I'm talking about bud.

 

[Sharkey]

That's what I'm talking about bud.

That 1st race didn't go so well did it? Just watched the replay and our guy kissed the ground coming out of the gate and put himself behind. Had to go way wide around the turn and still looked like he had a chance in the stretch before finishing a couple lengths back at the line in 3rd. Got bet down to the favourite, though, so that was another negative. The numbers had the #5, #3, and #1 as the top 3 horses going in, and they finished #3, #1, #5. Could've had the tri if we boxed them, so I may do that the rest of the day.

 

[Sharkey]

No scratches from my horses anywhere, so I'm in at all three tracks. Also playing a few $1 trifecta boxes as well;

- #1, #2, #7 tri box in race 1 at Oaklawn
- #2, #3, #8 tri box in race 2 at Oaklawn
- #3, #5, #7 tri box in race 8 at Oaklawn
- #2, #5, #6 tri box in race 6 at Santa Anita

The rest of the races are either too small or too chalky to box the top 3 for my liking. Or the fields are too large or too wide open.

 

[Sharkey]

Nobody likes our first horse at Oaklawn save for us two guys @t6p. 12/1 on the morning line and is currently sitting at 25/1. I have to miss the race, though, since I really need to head out the door. Best of luck.

 

[Sharkey]

The fuck?

 

[t6p]

The fuck?

I’m convinced that I’m the jinx Shark. Every time I tail lately it all goes to shit.

 

[Sharkey]

I’m convinced that I’m the jinx Shark. Every time I tail lately it all goes to shit.

Nah, it's my fault, T. I think I was giving way too much weight to this new pace pattern toy I got when compiling the numbers. Especially on the punishment side of things when a horse has decreased pace figures. I may isolate those angles with some small $2 plays for the typical claiming races I play and then not include them at all when I do the numbers for stakes races. I just want to see if the angle works well on it's own, and if so, how well. The concept of them makes total sense to me as a conditioning angle since my E2 angle I came up with is very similar. But I shouldn't have jumped on them and gave them the weight I did (especially the negative side) right away without knowing how successful they are first. The author of the book claims horses improve more than 70% of the time when they have the new pace top angle going for them, and he apparently tested it for thousands of races. So I want to isolate them and see if it's true or not.

 

[Sharkey]

@t6p

I just did a quick check of the 54 horses that have scored points in the Derby prep season so far. 34 of them improved their final figure after running their best E1 pace figure to date in their race previous. 14 of them declined in their final figure after doing so, and then the other 6 ran the same. That's only a small sample size, but it's pretty close to the percentage this author got. I think I'm okay with adding positive points to the numbers when a horse does that. My problem today was penalizing horses that didn't run to their previous pace figures, and giving them way too much of a penalty at that. I'm embarrassed to say this, but some of the penalties I was giving were way bigger than the penalties we have for too bad/too good races last time out. That was just plain stupidity on my part. It really was, and I apologize for that.

 

[t6p]

@t6p

I just did a quick check of the 54 horses that have scored points in the Derby prep season so far. 34 of them improved their final figure after running their best E1 pace figure to date in their race previous. 14 of them declined in their final figure after doing so, and then the other 6 ran the same. That's only a small sample size, but it's pretty close to the percentage this author got. I think I'm okay with adding positive points to the numbers when a horse does that. My problem today was penalizing horses that didn't run to their previous pace figures, and giving them way too much of a penalty at that. I'm embarrassed to say this, but some of the penalties I was giving were way bigger than the penalties we have for too bad/too good races last time out. That was just plain stupidity on my part. It really was, and I apologize for that.

No worries my friend. It’s easy to make a mistake when you’re tweaking a complicated system like this. We’ll get it back and then some.

 

[Sharkey]

I'm in another charitable mood today, so might as well give more money away playing a few races at Gulfstream;

==========

Race 2;

1- 438
2- 470 Manolete 6/1
3- 419
4- 474 Indian Scout 9/2 *
5- 473 Ship Disturber 7/2
6- 503 Moonlight Bandit 3/1 ***
7- 468 Sanfilipo 12/1
8- 489 Nauset Beach 5/2 **

#6 to win/place for $5/$7
#6 over #4,#5,#2,#7 in $2 exactas

==========

Race 4;

1- 447
2- 460 Cordele 7/2 **
3- 453 Enigmatic 6/1 *
4- 386
5- 437
6- 449
7- 464 Little Christina 5/1 ***
8- 421

#7 to win/place for $4/$4
#7,#2,#3 exacta box for $2

==========

Race 7;

1- 467
2- 480 Inside Out 5/2 **
3- 466
4- 474
5- 511 Psalmody 3/1 ***
6- 418
7- 480 Katinka 12/1 **
8- 462

#5 to win/place for $5/$7
#5 over #2,#7 in $4 exactas

==========

Edit: The #8 horse will be scratched in race 2, so I'll just be playing the exactas instead of trifectas.

 

[Sharkey]

Gonna donate some more by playing a few at Aqueduct today as well since the track looks like it could be okay today;


Race 2 - #6 Spring Emperor (9/2) to win/place for $4/$6

Race 5 - #9 Polar City (7/2) to win/place for $4/$6

Race 7 - #1 Carry Your Heels (6/1) to win/place for $4/$6

Race 8 - #4 Divine Miss Grey, #7 Holiday Disguise exacta box for $5

 

[Sharkey]

Thank you for that.

 

[Sharkey]

Picking winners and crushing exactas like they were nothing. Time to get hot. Yep.

Okay, I know. It was only one winner today and I needed a questionable DQ of another horse to hit that exacta. Plus I did lose $7 in total on the day. But hey, after the week I've had, I'm counting this as a good day.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

congrats, @Sharkey ! sorry I know you took an L on the day but a nice hit is always good to end on. You got fucked on a dq the other week so you deserve the dq that goes your way. i swear I'm gonna start doing the numbers soon, things are pretty crazy rn in the Blunt household. Don't even want to get into I basically only post in the boxing section rn.

 

[Sharkey]

congrats, @Sharkey ! You got fucked on a dq the other week so you deserve the dq that goes your way. i swear I'm gonna start doing the numbers soon, things are pretty crazy rn in the Blunt household. Don't even want to get into I basically only post in the boxing section rn.

Your old girly horse friend, Holiday Disguise, got it done for me that race, Blunt. She won and Divine Miss Grey lost the photo for 2nd by a nose. But the rider on the 4th place horse complained about the 2nd place horse, and they got moved to 3rd and 4th respectively thus giving me the exacta. I got really lucky with that one I thought. I needed some luck too after the week I had, though. I also lost a place photo earlier in the day at Aqueduct too, so I might've been taking a long break after losing the 2nd one on the day.

 

[Sharkey]

Why do I so this to myself, huh? Huh? Oh hell. Lots of good races today with three big Derby preps going on today, and then the return of my favourite track after a few days off. I'm playing a bunch today hoping that the call that went my went in the last race yesterday was a sign that my luck will turn around.


==========

Mahoning Valley;

Race 2 - #1 Low Tire 5/1 to win/place for $4/$6.

Race 4 - #4 Twinsanity 3/1 to win/place for $4/$6.

Race 5 - #5 Classical Music 6/1 to win/place for $4/$6.

Race 6 - #5 Zoey D 7/2 to win/place for $4/$6.

Race 7 - #5 Epic Story 4/1 to win/place for $4/$6.

Race 8 - #1 Willy Smile 8/1 to win/place for $4/$6.

==========

Aqueduct;

G2 Gazelle Stakes (Race 6) - #6 My Miss Lilly 5/1 to win/place for $5/$10.

G3 Excelsor Stakes (Race 7) - #1 Backsideofhtemoon 8/1 to win/place for $5/$10.

G1 Carter Handicap (Race 8) - #4 Do Share 5/1 to win/place for $5/$10.

G3 Bay Shore Stakes (Race 9) - #2 A Different Story 6/1 to win/place for $5/$10.

G2 Wood Memorial (Race 10) - #9 Vino Russo 9/2 to win/place for $5/$10, and a $5 exacta box with #4 Old Time Revival, #5 Enticed, and #9 Vino Russo.

==========

Keeneland;

G3 Commonwealth Stakes (Race 6) - Shut the Box 15/1 to win/place/show for $2/$5/$8.

G1 Madison Stakes (Race 8) - #13 Mines and Magic 30/1 to win/place/show for $2/$5/$8.

G2 Blue Grass Stakes (Race 10) - #12 Flameaway 6/1 to win/place for $5/$10, and then a $5 exacta box with #2 Sporting Chance, #10 Free Drop Billy, and #12 Flameaway.

==========

Santa Anita;

G1 Santa Anita Derby (Race 9) - #6 Justify over #1 Instilled Regard in a $6 straight exacta, and then a $4 straight trifecta with #6 Justify over #3 Bolt d'Oro over #5 Pepe Tono. Not crazy about betting this one, although it would be cool if they offered up an O/U on how many lengths Justify wins by.

==========

 

[Sharkey]

The twins, Mr Ping and Mr Pong, made their career debut last night at Charlestown. It's rare for a mother horse to have twins, and even rarer when both twins survive birth. The chances of twins turning out to be race horses is almost non-existent. But these two guys did the almost impossible and made it to the track. Because of their story they were bet down to 2/1 and 7/2 despite never having ran a race before. They then went out and finished 2nd to last and last well behind the other horses in the race.

 

[t6p]

Why do I so this to myself, huh? Huh? Oh hell. Lots of good races today with three big Derby preps going on today, and then the return of my favourite track after a few days off. I'm playing a bunch today hoping that the call that went my went in the last race yesterday was a sign that my luck will turn around.


==========

Mahoning Valley;

Race 2 - #1 Low Tire 5/1 to win/place for $4/$6.

Race 4 - #4 Twinsanity 3/1 to win/place for $4/$6.

Race 5 - #5 Classical Music 6/1 to win/place for $4/$6.

Race 6 - #5 Zoey D 7/2 to win/place for $4/$6.

Race 7 - #5 Epic Story 4/1 to win/place for $4/$6.

Race 8 - #1 Willy Smile 8/1 to win/place for $4/$6.

==========

Aqueduct;

G2 Gazelle Stakes (Race 6) - #6 My Miss Lilly 5/1 to win/place for $5/$10.

G3 Excelsor Stakes (Race 7) - #1 Backsideofhtemoon 8/1 to win/place for $5/$10.

G1 Carter Handicap (Race 8) - #4 Do Share 5/1 to win/place for $5/$10.

G3 Bay Shore Stakes (Race 9) - #2 A Different Story 6/1 to win/place for $5/$10.

G2 Wood Memorial (Race 10) - #9 Vino Russo 9/2 to win/place for $5/$10, and a $5 exacta box with #4 Old Time Revival, #5 Enticed, and #9 Vino Russo.

==========

Keeneland;

G3 Commonwealth Stakes (Race 6) - Shut the Box 15/1 to win/place/show for $2/$5/$8.

G1 Madison Stakes (Race 8) - #13 Mines and Magic 30/1 to win/place/show for $2/$5/$8.

G2 Blue Grass Stakes (Race 10) - #12 Flameaway 6/1 to win/place for $5/$10, and then a $5 exacta box with #2 Sporting Chance, #10 Free Drop Billy, and #12 Flameaway.

==========

Santa Anita;

G1 Santa Anita Derby (Race 9) - #6 Justify over #1 Instilled Regard in a $6 straight exacta, and then a $4 straight trifecta with #6 Justify over #3 Bolt d'Oro over #5 Pepe Tono. Not crazy about betting this one, although it would be cool if they offered up an O/U on how many lengths Justify wins by.

==========

Wish I could play along Shark but I’m headed to Brooklyn right now. Hopefully what’s left of the card will be good. Best of luck with all your plays bud.

 

[Sharkey]

Wish I could play along Shark but I’m headed to Brooklyn right now. Hopefully what’s left of the card will be good. Best of luck with all your plays bud.

Cheers T.

You heading over there for the UFC event tonight?

 

[Sharkey]

@t6p

Nevermind T. I would have saw that you already answered that if I had any reading comprehension. Haha. Have a great time regardless, and all the best with what you're betting on.