Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

I don't think I get this photo.

 

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Yeah, that was clear. Low Tire made a nice run at 9/1, but lost the place spot in the last stride.

 

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Gonna be another one of those days isn't it? I lost the place finish in my 1st race and then the win finish in my 2nd by a combined head. Have to settle for a terrible place payment there with the favourite winning.

 

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Lost that last race by less than a length after Classical Music made a big move to get the lead coming off the turn.

 

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Wood;

1st - Vino Russo
2nd - Enticed
3rd - Restoring Hope


Blue Grass;

1st - Good Magic
2nd - Flameaway
3rd - Free Drop Billy


SA Derby;

1st - Justify
2nd - Bolt d'Oro (stay home next time)
3rd - Core Beliefs

 

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Now we just have to figure out who is going to finish 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the Derby since the winner is a given barring a troubled trip.

 

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Gonna play a few races at Aqueduct today;


Race 2 - #4 Our Whim 5/2 to win/place for $5/$10

Race 3 - #4 Picture Day 5/1 to win/place for $5/$10

Race 7 - #8 Going Strong 10/1 to win/place/show for $2/$5/$8


Might play a few later races at other tracks as well depending.

 

[Sharkey]

Lost the win photo at almost 4/1 with Our Whim, but won the place photo with the top 3 finishing across the line together. Beat the heavy favourite out of the top 2 so place payout isn't too bad.

 

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This is a good batch of 3 year-olds too compared to most years yet there is one very clear standout in the bunch, who was able to shrug off the "Derby favourite" yesterday while that one was all-out to win, and while Justify was still only in cruise control.

 

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Picture Day 2nd by a half length at 10/1 in race 3. Nice run.

 

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I'm surprised the #5 Holding Aces isn't getting bet more than his current 7/2 here in race 7 considering everybody has to know that his trainer put him on the juice for his last race.

 

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Meh. Going Strong just missed 3rd at 14/1.

At least all three of my horses outran their odds today even though I only made $9 profit with them. Better than losing I guess. I need a good day and soon, though, to undue some of the damage I did last week.

 

[Sharkey]

An E1 of 100, an E2 of 105, and an LP of 117 for Justify yesterday. Getting triple digest pace figure in Derby preps is almost unheard of. In fact, looking back over the last 10 years there's not been another horse who has done it. Amercian Pharoah didn't do it. California Chrome didn't do it. Nyquist, Orb, etc., etc. Nobody has. Bodemeister in 2012 came close with a 96, 100, 105 when he won the Arkansas Derby by over 9 lengths that year before going on to have one of the best Derby efforts in the past decade despite getting run down late. Big Brown came closest in 2008 when he ran 107, 117, 98 when winning the Florida Derby that year by 5 lengths before going on to win the Derby by 5 lengths as well.

#Freak
#whofinishes2nd?

 

[Sharkey]

Hoppertunity is such a cool horse. Gets used as Justify's whipping boy last week in a workout. Then the old vet comes back a week later to add another graded stakes win to his resume and this time by a half dozen lengths. Horses such him are as likable as it gets. They don't win every time. But at least you know they are going to show up and give their best regardless.

 

[Sharkey]

My probable plays for tomorrow at Mahoning Valley barring any of these guys scratching;

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Race 1 - #1 Humorous Chant 5/2 to win/place for $5/$10

Race 2 - #3 Masquerade Party 5/1 to win/place for $5/$10

Race 3 - #2 Mobil At Last 6/1 to win/place for $5/$10

Race 5 - #3 Pure Trust 10/1 to win/place for $5/$10 (maybe across the board for $2/$5/$8 if he goes off higher than 10/1 since it's a big field)

Race 6 - #3 Rocky Parade 20/1 to win/place/show for $2/$5/$8

Race 7 - #7 Sandcat to win/place for $5/$10

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I may play some exactas or maybe even tris in races 5, 6, and 7 as well since they're big fields in races where it looks like some good prices may hit the board and where the morning line favourite doesn't look particular strong in a couple of them (don't even have the favourite ranked top 4 in race 5). Or I might play a few races at Parx. We'll see.

Speaking of cool horses, the one I'm probably going to bet in race 1, Humorous Chant, is fun to watch. She goes balls out in every race she runs for the first 4 or 5 furlongs, usually builds a 5+ length lead on the others before getting tired over the last furlong. Sometimes a horse or two will run her down late. Sometimes they don't and she hangs on to win it. It's pretty funny. But she has been really good to me the couple of times I bet her in the past.

 

[Sharkey]

Is it sad that, while I don't know with who yet since there is still one more prep to be ran and I haven't compiled the data yet (equation numbers, stride length/maintenance, plus same stuff from last couple years regarding patterns, late pace, etc.), I already have a good idea on how I'm going to be structuring my plays for the Derby this year?

 

[Sharkey]

My probable plays for tomorrow at Mahoning Valley barring any of these guys scratching;

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Race 1 - #1 Humorous Chant 5/2 to win/place for $5/$10

Race 2 - #3 Masquerade Party 5/1 to win/place for $5/$10

Race 3 - #2 Mobil At Last 6/1 to win/place for $5/$10

Race 5 - #3 Pure Trust 10/1 to win/place for $5/$10 (maybe across the board for $2/$5/$8 if he goes off higher than 10/1 since it's a big field)

Race 6 - #3 Rocky Parade 20/1 to win/place/show for $2/$5/$8

Race 7 - #7 Sandcat to win/place for $5/$10

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I'm just going to play the above horses to win/place for $4/$6 today at Mahoning Valley and then do the same for the following horses at Parx;

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Race 2 - #4 Drummer Don 6/1

Race 4 - #4 Sight Line 6/1

Race 5 - #6 Cold Hearted Pearl 10/1

Race 6 - #2 Perfect Cocktail 5/1

Race 7 - #5 Bluegrass Express 12/1

Race 8 - #10 Adumato - 8/1

Race 9 - #7 Honorable Service 6/1

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I've bet a few of these horses before, but I'm especially looking forward to betting Cold Hearted Pearl again. @t6p and @BluntTrauma21 you guys might remember when he came threw for us with a win at almost 10/1 a couple of months ago at Parx. He was tops on the number going into that race then, but this time I have him ranked 2nd. But it's a close 2nd and he may be a great price again if his morning line is any indication. Hopefully history repeats itself.

 

[Sharkey]

I could sure use a good day today. Saturday wasn't bad with a small $14 profit for me. Yesterday wasn't bad either with a small $9 profit. But days like that aren't going to cut it. I need some good days where I'm seeing at least $50-$100 profits otherwise I'm likely to go back to just playing the big stakes races on the weekends.