Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[kenfloshogun]

Wow this thread is booming, haven't played the ponies in a while but just remembered the Pegasus is tomorrow. Anyone know if there are multiple Grade 1 races?

 

[Sharkey]

Sound good to me. We already have two races done, so if you guys want to divide up the rest between us or just let me know which ones you want me work on, I'm cool with that.

How about you look for any other dirt races between races 5-8, T, since you already did a middle one already. @BluntTrauma21 can look for any dirt races earlier in the day, races 1-4. Then I'll look for races to bet between races 9-12 since I already did a late on already. Sound good guys?

 

[Sharkey]

Wow this thread is booming, haven't played the ponies in a while but just remembered the Pegasus is tomorrow. Anyone know if there are multiple Grade 1 races?

Just the one as far as I can see, K. A few other G3 races, though.

 

[Sharkey]

How about you look for any other dirt races between races 5-8, T, since you already did a middle one already. @BluntTrauma21 can look for any dirt races earlier in the day, races 1-4. Then I'll look for races to bet between races 9-12 since I already did a late on already. Sound good guys?

Actually that's not such a great idea afterall since most of the first half of the card tomorrow is maiden races save for a G3 earlier in the day on turf. Might only be another two races on dirt worth playing tomorrow besides the two we have covered already. If you want you guys can take one apiece, and if there is any left I can get it. If there isn't any left I can look at another card too. Plenty going on tomorrow. Whatever you guys want to do is okay with me.

 

[t6p]

Actually that's not such a great idea afterall since most of the first half of the card tomorrow is maiden races save for a G3 earlier in the day on turf. Might only be another two races on dirt worth playing tomorrow besides the two we have covered already. If you want you guys can take one apiece, and if there is any left I can get it. If there isn't any left I can look at another card too. Plenty going on tomorrow. Whatever you guys want to do is okay with me.

Races 2, 4 and 9 are on dirt, right Shark? Which two do you think are worth running the numbers for? I'll take care of one and Blunt can do the other, if that's ok with him.

 

[Sharkey]

Races 2, 4 and 9 are on dirt, right Shark? Which two do you think are worth running the numbers for? I'll take care of one and Blunt can do the other, if that's ok with him.

Looks like races 2 and 4 are maiden races, T, and we wouldn't be able to come up with numbers for that race anyways since there's a lot of horses in them making their 1st career start or have only raced once before. I guess it's race 9 for one of you by default.

I'm going to do the turf races there tomorrow just because I'd like to have money in those pools. Plus I think we can make some money on them if I reverse the value of early speed and subtract instead of add when it comes to that surface. I've been doing an occasional race this week on my own that way and it might work out well for us. I didn't have it because I didn't bet the trifecta, but I just had a race earlier today where the top ranked horse won, the 2nd ranked horse finished 3rd (that was my small win bet), and the 3rd ranked horse finished 2nd. I did one yesterday as well where the top horse won, the 2nd ranked horse finished 4th, 3rd ranked finished 3rd, and 4th finished 2nd. We might be able to find some winners this way afterall.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Wow just looked they're almost all either maidens or turf races. I think you already did 7, T, correct? And Shark you did the Pegasus. I'll keep looking but I haven't seen any other dirt races except for maidens. Should we try a couple from a different track or something?

 

[t6p]

@Sharkey Gotcha, I was only looking at surface so I didn't even notice that. Still lots to learn. As far as the turf races, that sounds good. I'll definitely plays those with you, as always.

@BluntTrauma21 Yea, 7 is already done. I can do race 9 in the morning if you want. I'll differ to you guys on whether or not we should look at a different track, but if we do go that route I'm happy to work up the numbers for a few races.

 

[Sharkey]

These are all stakes races on turf for tomorrow at Gulfstream. I'll list the top 3 for each race on the number and then name any other horses that is within 5 points of 3rd as well just in case you guys want to try trifectas, or maybe another longshot option.


Race 3;

#3 Beauly 6/1 - 459.3
#2 Summersault 5/1 - 455.4
#7 Apple Betty 7/5 - 452.8
----------

Race 6;

#12 Blue Bahia 7/2 - 460.3
#1 Girls Know Best 12/1 - 441.1
#5 Code Warrior 8/1 - 440.3
#11 Brandy's Girl 9/2 - 439.3
----------

Race 8;

#5 Bullards Alley 2/1 - 472.1
#3 Gold Shield 6/1 - 467.9
#4 Nessy 8/1 - 455.6
#7 Oscar Nominated 3/1 - 451.7
----------

Race 10;

#8 Pay Any Price 3/1 - 477.5
#6 Rainbow Heir 6/1 - 470.1
#7 Richard's Boy 7/2 - 466.1
----------

*Race 11;

#2 I'm Betty G 12/1 - 452.5
#11 Celestine 5/2 - 447.4
#1 Westit 15/1 - 444.4
#10 Storm the Hill 9/2 - 443.7
#6 Always Thinking 15/1 - 440.8
#9 Stormy Victoria 7/2 - 440.2
#12 Ghostly Presence 8/1 - 439.3
#5 Team of Teams 10/1 - 437.0
----------


* What a fantastic betting race this is. So many options and potential for good prices with 8 of the 12 in the race scoring within 15 points of each other. I swear, if one of you buggers takes a short price in this race for your straight bets I'm going to punch you right in the nose when we all meet up at Saratoga at some point. Even if your bet cashes. And no, I am not kidding. Well, maybe a little. But hey.

 

[Sharkey]

@BluntTrauma21 @t6p

You guys are fantastic. Look at you guys all into this stuff and everything. That's awesome. Take any race you guys want at any track on any day. There's tons of races we could look at.

 

[t6p]

These are all stakes races on turf for tomorrow at Gulfstream. I'll list the top 3 for each race on the number and then name any other horses that is within 5 points of 3rd as well just in case you guys want to try trifectas, or maybe another longshot option.


Race 3;

#3 Beauly 6/1 - 459.3
#2 Summersault 5/1 - 455.4
#7 Apple Betty 7/5 - 452.8
----------

Race 6;

#12 Blue Bahia 7/2 - 460.3
#1 Girls Know Best 12/1 - 441.1
#5 Code Warrior 8/1 - 440.3
#11 Brandy's Girl 9/2 - 439.3
----------

Race 8;

#5 Bullards Alley 2/1 - 472.1
#3 Gold Shield 6/1 - 467.9
#4 Nessy 8/1 - 455.6
#7 Oscar Nominated 3/1 - 451.7
----------

Race 10;

#8 Pay Any Price 3/1 - 477.5
#6 Rainbow Heir 6/1 - 470.1
#7 Richard's Boy 7/2 - 466.1
----------

*Race 11;

#2 I'm Betty G 12/1 - 452.5
#11 Celestine 5/2 - 447.4
#1 Westit 15/1 - 444.4
#10 Storm the Hill 9/2 - 443.7
#6 Always Thinking 15/1 - 440.8
#9 Stormy Victoria 7/2 - 440.2
#12 Ghostly Presence 8/1 - 439.3
#5 Team of Teams 10/1 - 437.0
----------


* What a fantastic betting race this is. So many options and potential for good prices with 8 of the 12 in the race scoring within 15 points of each other. I swear, if one of you buggers takes a short price in this race for your straight bets I'm going to punch you right in the nose when we all meet up at Saratoga at some point. Even if your bet cashes. And no, I am not kidding. Well, maybe a little. But hey.

Awesome Shark, thanks. Here's what I've got:

Race 7:

#5 First Growth 7/2 - 479.9
#10 Beasley 15/1 - 463.3
#9 Game Over 10/1 - 462.85

Race 9:

#1 Marley's Freedom 10/1 - 466.15
#10 Nonna Mela 4/1 - 461.25
#7 Curlin's Approval 2/1 - 460.9
#3 Rich Mommy 12/1 - 457.4

One question. In race 9, horse #8 Spice Lady only has three previous races. How do we account for that?

Also, now I'm scared to bet race 11 because I don't want to get my ass kicked by @Sharkey

 

[Sharkey]

Awesome Shark, thanks. Here's what I've got:

Race 7:

#5 First Growth 7/2 - 479.9
#10 Beasley 15/1 - 463.3
#9 Game Over 10/1 - 462.85

Race 9:

#1 Marley's Freedom 10/1 - 466.15
#10 Nonna Mela 4/1 - 461.25
#7 Curlin's Approval 2/1 - 460.9
#3 Rich Mommy 12/1 - 457.4

One question. In race 9, horse #8 Spice Lady only has three previous races. How do we account for that?

Also, now I'm scared to bet race 11 because I don't want to get my ass kicked by @Sharkey

Cheers for this all, T. I'm really happy Marley's Freedom is ranked 1st there in race 9 too. I was hoping that was the case because that may be the one horse on the undercard that I had the most interest in betting. We're never getting 10/1 on her, though. Maybe 5/1 if we're lucky.

For Spice Lady, just do things as normal and get the 3 race average instead of 4, and do things normally beyond that. We'll eventually have to come up with something that's less punishing for those types, though, when we take the speed difference just because it should be a natural progression for those types. But for now, that's part of the judgement call beyond the number.

Haha. You can bet whoever you want to, T. Seems like favourites win a lot of races that seem "wide open" anyways.

 

[Sharkey]

Went with the #2 Summersault here to win/place.

 

[t6p]

Went with the #2 Summersault here to win/place.

I couldn't decide between the #2 and #3 so I held off on that one.

 

[t6p]

Cheers for this all, T. I'm really happy Marley's Freedom is ranked 1st there in race 9 too. I was hoping that was the case because that may be the one horse on the undercard that I had the most interest in betting. We're never getting 10/1 on her, though. Maybe 5/1 if we're lucky.

For Spice Lady, just do things as normal and get the 3 race average instead of 4, and do things normally beyond that. We'll eventually have to come up with something that's less punishing for those types, though, when we take the speed difference just because it should be a natural progression for those types. But for now, that's part of the judgement call beyond the number.

Haha. You can bet whoever you want to, T. Seems like favourites win a lot of races that seem "wide open" anyways.

Thanks for clarifying that Shark. I ran the numbers for Spice Lady and she's well back of the what we have for the top 4 in that race.

 

[Sharkey]

I couldn't decide between the #2 and #3 so I held off on that one.

Smart move, T, since neither ran all that well. They did out finish the heavy favourite, though, if that can be considered a small moral victory. I only went small ($2/$4) that race anyways, which is what I'm doing for all these turf races. I'll go bigger on the dirt, especially the Pegasus.

 

[Sharkey]

Awesome Shark, thanks. Here's what I've got:

Race 7:

#5 First Growth 7/2 - 479.9
#10 Beasley 15/1 - 463.3
#9 Game Over 10/1 - 462.85

Looks like Game Over has scratched out of this race, T. Not sure if you want to bring any others into the mix now since there's a handful all grouped together. Or just leave it with these two. Your call.

 

[t6p]

Looks like Game Over has scratched out of this race, T. Not sure if you want to bring any others into the mix now since there's a handful all grouped together. Or just leave it with these two. Your call.

Thanks for the heads up, Shark. For anyone interested here are the numbers for the next group of horses:

#2 Eight Town 9/2 - 457.2
#3 Conquest Big E 8/1 - 456.8
#8 Tommy Macho 6/1 - 454.9
#1 Tale of Silence 3/1 - 454.35
#6 Giuseppe the Great 12/1 - 453.9

 

[Sharkey]

Thanks for the heads up, Shark. For anyone interested here are the numbers for the next group of horses:

#2 Eight Town 9/2 - 457.2
#3 Conquest Big E 8/1 - 456.8
#8 Tommy Macho 6/1 - 454.9
#1 Tale of Silence 3/1 - 454.35
#6 Giuseppe the Great 12/1 - 453.9

You playing exactas and tris today, T?

 

[t6p]

You playing exactas and tris today, T?

I'll play some for sure on the Pegasus. Before that I probably won't decide until I get a look at odds before the races. You?