Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Hodge23]

Here at about the 1:40 mark of the video;



There's a couple of steps that really don't look good at all. I hope it's just her slipping some and not anything more than that.

Yh i hope so too, definitely won't give up on her yet as i think she has a really big run in the future. On known form and at home she is much better than her stablemate that finished 3rd, coolmore, so i think ill just have to put a line through that run for now. Hard not to be impressed by Catch a Glimpse and the fast finishing Time and Motion anyhow.

 

[Sharkey]

Yh i hope so too, definitely won't give up on her yet as i think she has a really big run in the future. On known form and at home she is much better than her stablemate that finished 3rd, coolmore, so i think ill just have to put a line through that run for now. Hard not to be impressed by Catch a Glimpse and the fast finishing Time and Motion anyhow.

There's really nothing else to do but draw a line through it and hope you get a chance to bet her back again next time out with better odds.

 

[Sharkey]

Still a few weeks away, but it looks like both the Jim Dandy (especially) and the Haskell are going to be some very interesting betting races with some pretty good fields showing up for them at the end of July.

Jim Dandy; Horses like Exaggerator, Creator, Governor Malibu, Mohaymen are all pointing to that race so far with some others that will be added as well.

Haskell; Nyquist, Gun Runner, Brody's Cause, American Freedom and others will be pointing towards this one.

Both Destin and Stradivari are pointed towards the Travers as of now (as are all of those listed above), so I would have to imagine at least one, if not both, show up in on of those two races as well. Should be some fun racing with really good wagering opportunities.

 

[Hodge23]

Looking forward to seeing California Chrome back in action tomorrow in the San Diego Handicap - thought he put in an extremely impressive performance in the Dubai World Cup in March. He's been off since then and he's giving a little weight away tomorrow to some smart horses including Dortmund. He's still around -200 for the win though and i won't be having a bet in the race, although i have some financial interest as i have a backed him ante post for the Breeders Cup Classic @ +500

Really hoping he runs well both for my future bet and just because its always good to see good horses show their best.

 

[Sharkey]

Dortmund gave him quite the challenge, but Chrome was able to hang on to win by a short head. Very good effort by both horses.

Hopefully we get another good matchup tomorrow between Songbird and Carina Mia in the American Oaks.

 

[Hodge23]

Wow Songbird is quite a horse, brushed Carina Mia aside fairly easily which is no mean feat considering she's a G1 winner herself.
Should have had more money on her when i got her at -200, only put down 2U. I saw the US price was -900 at one point?! So went back to put more on and the odds had dropped. Was cursing myself a little when she bolted up like she did! Still was great to watch.
Anyone have any idea which race she may run in at the Breeders Cup? I wanted to back her for the Distaff against the girls but she could surely run against the colts and win, couldn't see any horse beating her especially if she would get a fillies allowance as well?

 

[Sharkey]

Wow Songbird is quite a horse, brushed Carina Mia aside fairly easily which is no mean feat considering she's a G1 winner herself.
Should have had more money on her when i got her at -200, only put down 2U. I saw the US price was -900 at one point?! So went back to put more on and the odds had dropped. Was cursing myself a little when she bolted up like she did! Still was great to watch.
Anyone have any idea which race she may run in at the Breeders Cup? I wanted to back her for the Distaff against the girls but she could surely run against the colts and win, couldn't see any horse beating her especially if she would get a fillies allowance as well?

Yeah, she's really good, Hodge. Really, really good. Carina Mia is a good one too and Songbird repelled her challenge pretty emphatically. A big plus about Songbird's performance as she did that against a track bias, as speed hadn't been holding up well and the rail hasn't been the place to be over the last few days on the track. She ran the rail on the lead the whole way and still won by open lengths in the end. Yeah, she's really, really good. The best 3 year-old in the US right now regardless of gender, although my guess is that she sticks with the girls for the rest of the year. Her trainer said they are going to race against the girls again and enter the G1 Alabama next month as her next race. Who knows after that. But I would guess that the end goal for them is the Distaff and maybe a matchup against Beholder. Putting a 3 year-old filly in a race against good older males like the Classic might be pushing it too much at this stage in the game. She's already a big girl, but she still has some physical maturing to do and some experience to gain before that happens me thinks.

 

[Hodge23]

Interesting race this weekend with a few of the former kentucky derby candidates racing tomorrow. Destin, Creator and Mohaymen are all involved and i think I'm going to side with mohaymen, who finished ahead of both in the Derby. Think he could still be a very good horse.

You looked at the race @Sharkey ? Interested to hear your opinion

 

[BluntTrauma21]

I'm no expert with the ponies but I'm sure Sharkey knows what horse I'm gonna be on for this one . Along with a 1u win bet on my all time favorite horse at 3-1, I also bet 1u on Gov Malibu to show and .5u on Malibu to win at 9-2 AND a tiny tiny exacta box on both Creator and Malibu. As mentioned I don't know much about the ponies but I do recognize most of these guys and there's a lot of good talent so these plays could obviously lose.

Feel bad for playing these w/o bouncing these off you first Shark, but hoping you're somewhat on the same page. Malibu ran very well in the Belmont he just got blocked off a couple of times, like we talked about h kind of got screwed there. I like those 9-2 odds on him. And plus Creator's my guy, super talented, won me hundreds and hundreds of dollars if not more, I just bet him on principle tbh b/c I love that animal second only to my late great dog Reuben who passed away early this year (who also had a horse dick, while being only 20lbs, btw, RIP buddy).

 

[beewalk]

With the Derby just over a week away and a lot of people already starting up on the handicapping process for the big race, I figured I'd start up a thread for us pony fans that post here. I'm sure there's a few and especially at this time of the year when the Derby can present opportunities for some life changing payouts. As one of those who has already started handicapping the race, I also have a shit load of data I've compiled over the last few days and would be more than happy to share it with anybody who is interested in it. It may be of little use. But maybe not. And who knows. Maybe after the Derby, Preakness and Belmont are run perhaps this thread can be used to share plays from those of us who play the ponies with some frequency.

thank youo

 

[Sharkey]

@Hodge23 and @BluntTrauma21

Good stuff guys and of course we know who you were going to play this race, Blunt. Creator has been so good to you so why the hell would you get off that train. Creator is someone I'm sure I'll be relying on come Travers time just because I think he profiles so well for that race. For today, though, I think I'm going to give Governor Malibu another chance if he's 5/1 or better. After his good effort and then the trouble he found in the Belmont I'd like to have some money on him at good odds to find out exactly how good he could be with a clean run at this field. He may not be good enough in the end, but I'm going to bet that one back in this spot. Going in Destin actually looks to me like the most likely winner of the race, though. There shouldn't be a whole lot of pace in this race with Laoban pretty much being the lone speed, so Destin is probably going to be able to sit a pretty good trip the whole race and then get first jump on the others at they hit the stretch. I think Destin is going to be tough and I'll include him in a exacta with Governor Malibu.

Win - Governor Malibu
Ex Box - Governor Malibu and Destin

But you could rightfully go a number of ways with this race. It's only a 6 horse field, but it's a very well matched field with horses like Destin, Creator, Mohaymen (red hot trainer), and Governor Malibu all having legitimate shots. 6 horses and the favourite may not be much less than 2/1. Pretty good. Even the other two entered aren't complete tosses if searching for a price play, although those two are probably up against it against these other four.

Good luck gentlemen.

Oh, and the Haskell is tomorrow as well. Should be another interesting race too with another Nyquist vs Exaggerator matchup, and then others like Gun Runner (my lean a day away) and American Freedom entered.

 

[Hodge23]

My book has Governor Malibu @ 10/1 so I will have to bet that, that line seems way off. Isn't he around 9/2 on US books?
Sometimes if theres such a large discrepancy ill just put some money on that for value reasons. A quick look at the race and I would say he definitely has a better than 10/1 chance anyway! He's getting weight from the 3 at the top of the betting and he had excuses last time when behind them - even better that you both like him to run well @Sharkey & @BluntTrauma21

 

[t6p]

Gotta tail Sharkey after how well that's worked for me in the past. 0.75u Governor Malibu to win and 0.25u Governor Malibu/Destin exacta box. Thanks for the picks as always.

Good luck all.

 

[t6p]

Damn I thought Laoban was gonna slow down coming down the stretch but he pulled away. Oh well what can you do

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Upset on with Laoban, Malibu with a pretty good run once again, ALMOST pulled out the win. Creator ran bad, looked like he tried to make a run down the stretch but got blocked off like he did in the Derby but this time only a 6 horse field. Sat way too far back for the distance and tried to make his move too late, like you mentioned he might, Sharkey.

Malibu show bet hit but not for a very good price, obviously. Small loss on the Malibu and Creator win bets along with the exacta box. All the best horses seemed to under perform a bit, even though Shark and this thread has been rightfully higher on Malibu than others seem to have been. Weren't Laoban and Malibu the two horses with the longest odds here?

 

[Sharkey]

Upset on with Laoban, Malibu with a pretty good run once again, ALMOST pulled out the win. Creator ran bad, looked like he tried to make a run down the stretch but got blocked off like he did in the Derby but this time only a 6 horse field. Sat way too far back for the distance and tried to make his move too late, like you mentioned he might, Sharkey.

Malibu show bet hit but not for a very good price, obviously. Small loss on the Malibu and Creator win bets along with the exacta box. All the best horses seemed to under perform a bit, even though Shark and this thread has been rightfully higher on Malibu than others seem to have been. Weren't Laoban and Malibu the two horses with the longest odds here?

I think Governor Malibu went off at 4/1, Blunt. He got his share of respect at the windows since he went off at the same odds as Creator did. I was hoping for a little better price, but that was probably fair value in this spot. He ran well again too and looked like he may have been blocked once again over the final furlong? Maybe not. Laoban probably still has some run left since he basically stole that one on the lead the whole way. Hard for anybody to come from off the pace when the leader is setting such slow fractions and under no pressure.

 

[Hodge23]

Broke even on the race, with the Guvernor Malibu Place bet covering my win stakes on Mohaymen and GM.
Mohaymen was disappointing unfortunately, but I was impressed with GM. I thought at one point he was coming to win the race but his run got checked, although I'm not sure he would have reached the winner anyway. Anyway good shout guys on GM, its a shame he couldn't get there as it would have been a large win but him placing saved me from any losses, so cheers !

Looking forward to the haskell tomorrow and like sharkey has mentioned ill be looking to oppose the front two with something. Exaggerator was poor last time for whatever reason and Nyquist is coming off a loss for the first time and a 6 week break also, and both have to give the rest of the field weight. Might just keep it simple and double up on Gun Runner and American Freedom @ +200. Having said that, betting aside id like to see Nyquist win after he did me a big favour in the Derby, still think he could be a star. Good luck with whatever you pick boys !

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Gun Runner today boys? Getting 4-1 on him atm.

 

[Sharkey]

Gun Runner today boys? Getting 4-1 on him atm.

Yep.

Nyquist will go off at the deserving favourite and could be tough to beat, but he's not playable at even money or less unless you want to key him uptop in exactas and such. Exaggerator may need a race or two to get back to form after his dismal effort in the Belmont may have left him empty afterwards (his 6th race in less than 4 months, which, in the lasix age, is quite a lot without breaks). He also only showed up for this race a few days ago after having originally pointed towards yesterday's race in the Jim Dandy. Had some poor looking workouts over the Saratoga track, though, and the trainer tried to pass it off as Exaggerator not liking the track despite the fact that he's won on it before. Sounds more like trainer excuse for a horse that may not be at his physical best currently. American Freedom is the hype horse in the race. Might be up to it today. Might not be. Who knows if he's on this level yet. But with this being a Baffert horse and with all of Baffert's success in this race this horse will basically be unplayable at the odds he'll go off as. Might even be 2nd choice come post time. I'll pass. Basically leaves me with Gun Runner by default, who observers are saying has physically grown significantly since he ran in the Derby a few months ago (he's raced once since wining a G3 in a walk). Great sign if they are speaking the truth, which I'd assume they are. A little extra physical growth, a little extra physical ability and he's right there with Nyquist in the Derby. Gun Runner will of course have that tactical advantage of him being able to be positioned anywhere, so if the pace is slow up front (not likely) he could press it. If it's moderate and contested (more likely) than he can sit behind the lead runners and run a stalk & pounce race. So yeah, I see him as a horse who is coming in with reasonable expectations for further improvement, who's coming in in great form having won 3 of 4 including his last one, and a horse that isn't going to get beat by the shape of the race. If there's someone in the field to upset Nyquist today I think Gun Runner is the one.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Love it, thanks Shark. Great b/d as always.