Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

The Haskell is still a few hours away, but the track they'll be running on is really, really wet as of now. That's fine. Just means that more money will go on Exaggerator which should make him clear 2nd choice I'm guessing. A big price horse like Sunny Ridge is tugging on me a little bit as a exacta or trifecta filler with those conditions, though, despite the fact that he hasn't raced in so long. Still time to think it over some before heading out.

 

[t6p]

Awesome stuff Sharkey. Gun Runner it is, 1u. GL guys

 

[Sharkey]

Yeah, I may be reaching here, but I may have talked myself into backing Sunny Ridge with a show bet. What the hell. He's up against it from the talent level he showed this spring and then the 5 months off since his last race. But who knows what kind of horse he could be after so long. He may have improved leaps and bounds since then. Or, he hasn't and is completely overmatched today. We'll see. At 20/1 it may be worth the price to find out since he does have one or two things going for him as he is 2 for 2 over the track (which he routinely trains over) and has run well in the slop both times asked to with him finishing 2nd twice under those conditions, including once by a nose to Exaggerator in the slop. His trainer is also based at the track and pretty much owns the place having won 19 of the 43 races he's entered horses in at the track this summer (72% top 3 finishes at this track).

 

[Sharkey]

Gun Runner to win and then half the amount on Sunny Ridge to show. I'll be off shortly to make those plays. Best of luck to all you guys.

 

[Sharkey]

What a pair of crap races this weekend for this crop. Not sure if any of these guys look good going into the Travers next month.

 

[Sharkey]

That 3rd from Sunny Ridge means I only suffer a small loss over the weekend. Better than nothing.

 

[Sharkey]

I wonder if the connections of Songbird will have second thoughts about their plans after watching these two races this weekend and instead decide to try the Travers.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Yeah good call on the Sunny Ridge show bet, Shark. That was a saving grace, I ended up putting money on GR to show along with the win bet but only took a small loss overall thanks to Sunny Ridge eking out that show over Nyquist. Nice finish by him and good call by you. I agree neither of the two groups of these horses looked very good this weekend.

 

[Sharkey]

Yeah good call on the Sunny Ridge show bet, Shark. That was a saving grace, I ended up putting money on GR to show along with the win bet but only took a small loss overall thanks to Sunny Ridge eking out that show over Nyquist. Nice finish by him and good call by you. I agree neither of the two groups of these horses looked very good this weekend.

The top 2 finishers from the Curlin Stakes on Friday were probably the two most impressive runners from this crop over the weekend*, and I would imagine both Connect & Gift Box (who've I always liked) are pointing towards the Travers. It would be tough betting the Travers based on what we've seen in the Jim Dandy or Haskell, though. One race featured a slow uncontested race up front with untrustworthy results in the Jim Dandy. The other produced a fast and very contested pace up front that also featured untrustworthy results with the addition of it being over wet ground in the Haskell. The two 2nd place finishers in those races probably look best due to both of them running against each of the race shapes and were still able to finish well. And I still like Creator's profile in the Travers if they decide to enter, which I would assume they would since I got the impression that yesterday's race for him was used as simply a prep race in the strictest since.

* Curlin Stakes;

 

[t6p]

Just got back from dinner and saw the results. Sunny Ridge to show ended up being a nice backup plan. Thanks again Sharkey

 

[Sharkey]

A couple of interesting races this Saturday with the G1 Whitney and then the G2 West Virginia Derby, which isn't all that prestigious, although this year's running of the race looks like it may be a very good betting race just because of the amount of horses entered and how close the odds should be amongst the favourites

G1 Whitney;

1 - El Kabeir 20/1
2 - Comfort 8/1
3 - Upstart 10/1
4 - Frosted 3/5
5 - Noble Bird 10/1
6 - Effinex 7/2

Without having looked at the past performances yet, that 10/1 on Upstart seems enticing considering it looks like some speed has signed on and could open the race up for an off the pace type like Upstart. We'll look at it more before Saturday.


G2 West Virginia Derby

1 - Cupid 3/1
2 - No Distortion 8/1
3 - Mo Tom 5/1
4 - Pinson 20/1
5 - Whateverybodywants 30/1
6 - Name Changer 15/1
7 - Van Damme 50/1
8 - Adventist 8/1
9 - Economic Model 4/1
10 - Anaxismandros 50/1
11 - Forevamo 8/1
12 - Suddenbreakingnews 9/2
AE - Fort Pulaski

I have no clue who half these runners are, but we see quite a few familiar names who either ran in some Triple Crown races or ran in the prep races for those races. Cupid came back from that horrib;le effort in the Easy Goer on Belmont day to win a G2 race last time out against horses like Cherry Wine and a few others. Mo Tom came back from his mid-pack Derby finish to win the Ohio Derby last time out and beat a couple of these guys doing so. One of those was Adventist, who finished 2nd in that race after running the New York prep races earlier in the year and the Peter Pan. Economic Model won the Easy Goer on Belmont day and then ran well next time out too finishing 2nd in the Dwyer after a troubled trip. Forevamo ran against Gun Runner during the Derby prep season, and he's done okay since then finishing 2nd in the Pat Day and then winning an allowance race. Suddenbreakingnews we all know about. Hasn't ran since his poor effort in the Belmont.

 

[kenfloshogun]

Heading to Saratoga this weekend (Fri/Sat/Sun) looking forward to it (second time going).

Any big races this weekend?

 

[Sharkey]

Heading to Saratoga this weekend (Fri/Sat/Sun) looking forward to it (second time going).

Any big races this weekend?

Lucky guy. And yeah, you'll be able to watch the Whitney in person on Saturday, which is one of the biggest and more prestigious dirt races of the year for older horses.

 

[Sharkey]

Mo Tom was declared out of the West Virginia Derby this morning by his trainer, who said Mo Tom was going to be trained up to race at the end of the month. I'd assume he means the Travers for Mo Tom since the horse has been stationed at Saratoga for a while now and comments say he gets over well during his workouts.

I also took a quick peak at the PP's for the Whitney and may have to call an audible with my early Upstart lean. The pace doesn't look nearly as fast as I originally thought. In fact there's a lot of potential there for a horse like Noble Bird to get an easy lead setting fairly soft early fractions and with little pressure. I'd hate to trust such an inconsistent headcase like Noble Bird in this spot, but if he's paying 10/1 (or maybe even higher come post time) it may be worth a shot?

 

[Sharkey]

Economic Model has also been ruled out of the West Virginia Derby from what I'm reading. That's too bad since that's very likely who I would have gone to the windows with if he ran. The connections of the horse are going to look for something a little shorter (and more prestigious) by pointing towards the G1 King's Bishop that will take place on the Travers undercard.

Cupid is the most talented runner in this race, but I can't trust that guy at all at short odds. If he has things his own way on the front end with no pressure then he probably romps by open lengths. If he does get some pressure in the earlier running then he probably folds again and fishing in the back half of the pack. If Cupid does get some early pressure I do kind of like the horse that could be putting it on him some in the #2 No Distortion if he goes up a little higher than his 8/1 ML odds. That horse is in good form having won his last two races, albeit against weak competition. This is a pretty big class hike for him. He fired a bullet in his workouts going into each of his last two wins, and did so again in his last workout before this race. He and Cupid have the co-highest last out speed rating according to Brisnet, and the 101 he received in his race previous to his last one is the highest in the field now that Economic Model is out. 10 of his 11 career races have been in route races so the distance shouldn't be an issue. Maybe the plan is for the jockey to ride this horse from a stalking position and let the #4 Pinson do the dirty work against Cupid. Fuck I don't know. I'm probably reaching here, but at the right odds he may be worth a shot.

 

[Hodge23]

What time is the Virginia Derby @Sharkey ? Cant find it anywhere on UK Sites

For tonight i have 2 bets so far:

5U Frosted @ -175
1U Lewis Bay @ +500 / 1U Lewis Bay to Show @ +100

That performance from Frosted lto was spectacular and anything close to that should see him romp home here, its slightly worrying that he seems to alternate wins and losses but i think thats likely coincidence rather than anything else.

I think that the drop back to 7f will help Lewis Bay close the gap on Off the Tracks, with the 8.5f/9f distance perhaps stretching her stamina a bit? Thats what I'm hoping anyway, but I'm confident she will show at the least so that will cover the win stake.

Interested to hear any opinions guys!

Edit: Adding 1U Shining Copper @ +400

 

[Hodge23]

Devastating Performance from Frosted, thought he had gone off way too fast but he wasn't stopping. Serious contender for the classic now, though I'm still siding with Chrome based on their run in Dubai.

Shining Copper held on by a nostril for the win, very gutsy horse.

Lewis bay was poor, though none of the favoured horses put in any sort of performance there, with a shock 55/1? winner. Did they go off too fast perhaps as Off the tracks and Lewis Bay were both at the head turning in and then just tailed off badly.

Anyway good evening on the races with just under 5U profit. Hopefully can carry that on as I'd been on a bad run on US racing recently.

 

[Sharkey]

Devastating Performance from Frosted, thought he had gone off way too fast but he wasn't stopping. Serious contender for the classic now, though I'm still siding with Chrome based on their run in Dubai.

Shining Copper held on by a nostril for the win, very gutsy horse.

Lewis bay was poor, though none of the favoured horses put in any sort of performance there, with a shock 55/1? winner. Did they go off too fast perhaps as Off the tracks and Lewis Bay were both at the head turning in and then just tailed off badly.

Anyway good evening on the races with just under 5U profit. Hopefully can carry that on as I'd been on a bad run on US racing recently.

Great job, Hodge.

Sorry I didn't see your question earlier. Cupid ended up winning the WV Derby fairly easily anyway at short odds (7/5 or something) after getting away with an easy lead all the way around the track.

 

[Sharkey]

@Hodge23

Big race tomorrow on the grass with the G1 Arlington Million. I would expect some of these runners who ran on your side of the pond recently to sweep the top two or three spots. You have any insight into some of these guys? Tryster, Decorated Knight, and such.

 

[Hodge23]

Was just coming to post on this race @Sharkey !

Some great races in prospect at Arlington tomorrow with 4 Grade 1's ! The US St Leger first, then the Secretariat, Beverly D and finally the Million.

The Million seems a very open race, with little to choose between a few of the runners. The only one of ours i would discount would be Decorated Knight, who based on known form alone shouldn't be near good enough to win this - famous last words!

-Mondialiste is a bit of an enigma, his form is all over the place. A couple of really good races in the US/Canada last year; he beat Lea from the US and then ran very well when 2nd behind Tepin in the Breeders Cup Mile. However he ran two very poor races to kick off this season, beaten 17L and then 12L. He did bounce back to something like his best form LTO; stepped up to 10.5F he came close to winning a grade 2, just edged out by the very well regarded Time Test on fast ground. On that form and his best from last year he has a big chance.

-Deauville won the Belmont Derby LTO in the US over this distance, he has decent form otherwise but nothing too special. He does get some weight from the older horses though and also seems to appreciate fast ground. He was given a great ride in the derby from a wide stall and unfortunately doesn't get that Jockey again, so the draw could be a problem for him this time.

-Tryster is often a fantastic horse to watch, his style is come late and come fast (ha), which leads to some breathtaking finishes. He will likely be last turning in and then bomb for home, its a great style when it pays off but it can be dangerous with luck needed in running to get there. He will absolutely love the fast ground though and he appreciates a strong pace, which hopefully will be set here. Form wise he's definitely up there, with some great performances on the turf at Meydan earlier in the year - not great in his last race but i think that was likely to do with the soft ground. The draw shouldn't be a problem as he prefers to be last for most of the race anyway.

From the US contingent i feel that the Pizza Man could do well if he could recapture some of last years form.

I won't be getting heavily involved in this race as it is a close contest, but I will be having a smallish bet on Tryster as the conditions seem to be perfect for him and the draw is no problem, whereas it could hinder the other UK runners.

2U Tryster @ +400