Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Wow thats insane, still 10/1 here. Would be tempted but i tend to agree with your comments about his age and recent form.

Haven't gone with a saver in the end, just sticking with Tryster.

Let's get this done and make it a good day.

 

[Sharkey]

Mondialiste takes it with Tryster flattening out in the stretch. Oh well.

 

[Hodge23]

Whoops, should have done that saver!

-2.5U for the night

Think I'm around about +10U on US racing for the year now, not sure how much of that was on the turf though, likely minus something haha. Gonna carry on armed with the Tote though, think that could help immensely having both fixed odds and the US Tote.

 

[Sharkey]

Whoops, should have done that saver!

-2.5U for the night

Think I'm around about +10U on US racing for the year now, not sure how much of that was on the turf though, likely minus something haha. Gonna carry on armed with the Tote though, think that could help immensely having both fixed odds and the US Tote.

I'm definitely minus something when it comes to the turf. In fact I'm oh-for when it comes to those turf races after having played about a half dozen of them this summer. I'll stick to the dirty stuff from now on, though, which I'm still well into the black on this year after having done really, really, really well during the Derby prep season.

 

[Sharkey]

I may start doing some early prep work for the Travers tomorrow since I plan on investing in that race pretty heavily with win bets and exotics. Why the hell not. It's the Travers and my favourite race of the whole year. I know in past years I've given added weight to horses that have either ran their final prep race over the Saratoga track (preferably the Jim Dandy) since I think the recent history of Travers winners leans heavily towards that angle. If they dont have a prep race over the track then I like to look at horses who have raced well over the Aqueduct surface in the past since that track is said to be almost exactly the same as Saratoga when it comes to dirt compilation. I think I may have even heard in the past that the two tracks share the same maintenance crew? Maybe not. But the tracks are supposed to be nearly identical. The 10F distance of the Travers is also a little more demanding than the 10F of the Derby, so the more stamina I see in the pedigree and on track performances the better. I'm also looking forward to throwing that AP Indy-Mr Prospector nick angle into the pot this year as well since our uncovering of it before the Belmont and how successful it was in that race. Plus whatever else I can remember to think of over the next couple of weeks.

After that it looks like I'll then have to decide if I'm going to give Governor Malibu another shot since he'll probably fit most everything I'll look at. But I'm also 0-3 playing him this year too. Then again, he's never given me a single reason not to play him back after any of his races and he very likely ran the best race out of those who were in the Jim Dandy (made a nice middle move to advance, may have been blocked a little in the stretch, etc) I already know I'll be using him in some capacity. Just got to decide if he's worth another win bet or just use him in 2nd and 3rd. Ah, we'll figure it out. Plenty of time yet.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Is there a football betting thread on here? Or does no one pay attention to preseason.

 

[Sharkey]

Is there a football betting thread on here? Or does no one pay attention to preseason.

I suspect any NFL talk in the past went into the non-MMA betting threads, my friend. It may be worth it's own thread, though, if you want to talk @EzFlyer about starting one up.

 

[Sharkey]

The wife and son are out of the house for the evening, so fuck it. Might as well start throwing some Travers stuff at the wall and see what sticks and what doesn't. Might as well start with what the Travers winners of the recent past had done previous to winning the Travers. We'll see if their final prep race was at Saratoga or had a history at Saratoga/Aqueduct previous to that;


2015: Keen Ice - Prepped at Monmouth by running in the Haskell, but did have a good race at the Aqueduct track previous to that when he finished 3rd in the Remsen. He was of course a pure stayer/stamina horse as well with having always showed finish to his races regardless of his finishing position.

2014: V.E. Day - Prepped for the Travers by running over the Saratoga track in the Curlin a month before. he was another pure stamina horse who's best races after the Travers came at 12F and 13F.

2013: Will Take Charge - Prepped for the Travers by running in the Jim Dandy where he finished 2nd. Showed 10F ability by finishing 2nd in both the Breeders Cup Classic and the Big Cap after winning the Travers.

2012: Alpha - Won the Jim Dandy at Saratoga before going on to win the Travers in a dead heat with Golden Ticket. Alpha had raced 5 times on either Saratoga or Aqueduct before the Travers winning 4 of those 5 races and finishing 2nd in the other one. Golden Ticket didn't run at either Saratoga or Aqueduct previously, nor was he much of a stamina horse before or after having only won a G3 at 10F besides the Travers.

2011: Stay Thirsty - Won the Jim Dandy before going on to win the Travers. Had won on both the Saratoga and Aqueduct tracks before that as well. Also showed long distance ability in multiple other races as well, including a close 2nd in the Belmont earlier in the year.

2010: Afleet Express - Won the Travers after finishing 3rd in the Jim Dandy. Broke his maiden by winning at Aqueduct early in his career.

2009: Summer Bird - Entered the Travers after finishing 2nd to Queen Rachel in the Haskell. Proven long distance runner having won G1 races at 10F or more like the Belmont, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup.

2008: Colonel John - Prepped at the now closed Hollywood Park and had no previous experience at either Saratoga or Aqueduct. besides the Travers, had little success at 10F.

2007: Street Sense - Won the Jim Dandy before winning the Travers. Won the Derby that year as well, and finished 2nd in Preakness. Was a member of the strongest 3 year-old crop we've seen in some time and more than held his own in distance races.

2006: Bernardini - Won the Jim Dandy then won the Travers. Had previously won on the Aqueduct track by taking the Withers. Won the Preakness, Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and finished 2nd in the Classic, so very proven at distances.

2005: Flower Alley - Won the Jim Dandy. Won the Travers. Finished 2nd in the Classic, but besides that and the Travers had little success in his other tries at distances.

2004: Birdstone - Won the Travers after taking a break after having won the Belmont. Had won on the Saratoga track early in his career. And he won the Belmont, so yeah. He could run a distance.


There. 12 years back. By my count, I think 8 of the past 12 winners came out of a prep over the Saratoga track the month previous to that whether that be the Jim Dandy or the Curlin in the case of V.E. Day. Two others, Birdstone and Keen Ice, had previous good form over either the Saratoga or Aqueduct tracks, and were proven long distance runners. Summer Bird was also a proven long distance runner, who had never ran at either Saratoga or Aqueduct.

Not sure if this helps any, but maybe those who fit some of these this year can be given a check mark in their favour?

 

[Sharkey]

Out of the 16 horses who are either probable or possible for the Travers there's only five potential runners who have that AP Indy-Mr Prospector nick in their pedigrees;

Creator, Governor Malibu, American Freedom, Mohaymen, and Economic Model.

I'm going to do some further research on this and see what the impact value is for this race in particular. I know I said I was going to do it for all the four classic distances races in the past, but that seemed a little much in the work department. I know this angle is going to show value based on what I saw before. But I really would like to go more in depth on it by comparing finishes to the amount of horses who had this nick. I think it's a good one.

 

[Sharkey]

Shit, I know you guys know all these runners already and don't need me in the least. But I love stuff like this when it comes to the races I get excited about.

 

[Sharkey]

Here, I was was able to get this done right quick with me having the whole house to myself;

- Over the last 10 editions of the Travers there were 93 horses in total who attempted the race
- 23 of the 93 had that AP Indy-Mr Prospector nick in their pedigree (24.7% of field)
- There were 30 top three finishing spots available in the last 10 years
- Out of those 30 spots those with that nick in their pedigree made up 12 of them (1-5-6) or 40%
- 14 of the 23 horses with that nick in their pedigree made up the super (1-5-6-2) while 17 of the 23 finished in the top half of the field

Helpful?

*shrugs*

I thought there would be a little more impact value to that angle myself to be honest. But it is there when you look at the 24.7% of the field yet 40% of the board finishers.

 

[t6p]

Any thoughts on Creator in the Travers, @Sharkey? I know a few of us ITT were on him in the Belmont and he delivered. He didn't run well in the Jim Dandy, but the same can be said about his performance in the Derby before he came back to win the Belmont. I'm probably going to put at least a little something on him, but I'm interested to hear what you think.

 

[Sharkey]

Any thoughts on Creator in the Travers, @Sharkey? I know a few of us ITT were on him in the Belmont and he delivered. He didn't run well in the Jim Dandy, but the same can be said about his performance in the Derby before he came back to win the Belmont. I'm probably going to put at least a little something on him, but I'm interested to hear what you think.

I'm very likely to use him, T, but I'm going to wait and see how he looks in his workouts for the race before deciding how or even if. Like you say, he has shown that bounce back ability already, so I'm not concerned about that by itself. My only concern is if he didn't like the track, hence why I I'd like to see his training over it. He has plenty of stamina, of course. Should have at least some pace to run at unlike the Jim Dandy as well. Just wants some confirmation that the track itself wasn't the issue for the flat effort since he had no previous form over it going into the Jim Dandy.

 

[Sharkey]

Also, there may or may not be one more horse to add to that AP Indy-Mr Prospector cross. That being Alpha who won the Travers a few years back. He doesn't have a full nick in his pedigree but does have what is called a partial nick with AP Indy being bred to a grand daughter of Mr Prospector on the sire side of Alpha's pedigree. Not sure if I should count that as a 2-5-6 record for the nick in this race or keep it at 1-5-6. Probably doesn`t matter since the nick has an impact value regardless.

 

[t6p]

Thanks Sharkey. Awesome stuff as always. I'm really looking forward to this race.

 

[Sharkey]

Thanks Sharkey. Awesome stuff as always. I'm really looking forward to this race.

Same here, T. I love this race on a number of fronts. The prestige within the racing game. The history of it. The strength of the fields that usually run in it. The track it's ran on and the distance it's ran at. It's a huge race in the horse racing game, and like I said earlier in the thread, I just wished the mainstream gave it the attention it deserves.

I'll probably be throwing some stuff into the mix over the last couple of weeks, but ultimately you guys are going to make your own picks since you've all become familiar with these horses over the spring and summer. There's really no secrets that are going to be uncovered that you guys don't already know about them. Trust what you know and play it as such.

 

[timmyclax22]

Thanks for all the work Sharkey! Appreciate it since I'm having my bachelor party in Saratoga that weekend!

 

[Sharkey]

Thanks for all the work Sharkey! Appreciate it since I'm having my bachelor party in Saratoga that weekend!

That's awesome, Timmy. I'm sure you'll have a great time. And congrats to you and the future Mrs.

 

[t6p]

Thanks for all the work Sharkey! Appreciate it since I'm having my bachelor party in Saratoga that weekend!

One of my closest friends had his bachelor party there last summer (not Travers weekend) and it was a blast. It's a great place for that sort of thing. Enjoy and congrats

 

[Sharkey]

Oh crap, I just noticed that the Pacific Classic is this Saturday. Hmm. For some reason I always thought that this race took place on the same day as the Travers. That`s okay. Gives us a big race to look at this week as well. In fact it`s probably unseated the Big Cap as the biggest race on the left coast for US racing. California Chrome will be in it. Beholder will be back to try to defend her dominating win in this race last year. Dortmund is going to try Chrome again after giving him a big challenge last time out. A few other veterans will be entered as well. Melatonin doesn`t look like he`ll be entered, which is too bad. Should be a good race even though it may not present much of a betting opportunity with Chrome and Beholder in it unless someone is looking to beat both of them.

Songbird is also going to be hitting the track again this Saturday in the G1 Alabama at Saratoga, although it doesn`t look like many will try to take her on in this one. Not that I blame them. But it`s always a treat watching her run regardless.