Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Was just coming to post on this race @Sharkey !

Some great races in prospect at Arlington tomorrow with 4 Grade 1's ! The US St Leger first, then the Secretariat, Beverly D and finally the Million.

The Million seems a very open race, with little to choose between a few of the runners. The only one of ours i would discount would be Decorated Knight, who based on known form alone shouldn't be near good enough to win this - famous last words!

-Mondialiste is a bit of an enigma, his form is all over the place. A couple of really good races in the US/Canada last year; he beat Lea from the US and then ran very well when 2nd behind Tepin in the Breeders Cup Mile. However he ran two very poor races to kick off this season, beaten 17L and then 12L. He did bounce back to something like his best form LTO; stepped up to 10.5F he came close to winning a grade 2, just edged out by the very well regarded Time Test on fast ground. On that form and his best from last year he has a big chance.

-Deauville won the Belmont Derby LTO in the US over this distance, he has decent form otherwise but nothing too special. He does get some weight from the older horses though and also seems to appreciate fast ground. He was given a great ride in the derby from a wide stall and unfortunately doesn't get that Jockey again, so the draw could be a problem for him this time.

-Tryster is often a fantastic horse to watch, his style is come late and come fast (ha), which leads to some breathtaking finishes. He will likely be last turning in and then bomb for home, its a great style when it pays off but it can be dangerous with luck needed in running to get there. He will absolutely love the fast ground though and he appreciates a strong pace, which hopefully will be set here. Form wise he's definitely up there, with some great performances on the turf at Meydan earlier in the year - not great in his last race but i think that was likely to do with the soft ground. The draw shouldn't be a problem as he prefers to be last for most of the race anyway.

From the US contingent i feel that the Pizza Man could do well if he could recapture some of last years form.

I won't be getting heavily involved in this race as it is a close contest, but I will be having a smallish bet on Tryster as the conditions seem to be perfect for him and the draw is no problem, whereas it could hinder the other UK runners.

2U Tryster @ +400

Awesome, Hodge.

I was leaning towards playing Tryster myself, although I'm gonna wait til tomorrow to make a decision I think. Would like to see what the weather brings. Supposedly the track is seeing rain right now and could see some more tomorrow. I may look to someone else if that's the case since Tryster's worse race came over the soft going in his last race. His PP's seem to indicate he prefers firm ground to run on. Not sure what my alternative would be as of now.

Not sure The Pizza Man would be a good play tomorrow myself, just because he's going to be way overbet as a Illinois bred who'll be the popular choice of the attending crowd. Plus the regression he's shown this year compared to last. I'd feel better about him rebounding to his form from last year if he wasn't as old as he is. I'll be playing against him as one who's best running is behind him and one who'll be overbet based on how popular he is. World Approval looks like the best of the US based horses to me.

 

[Hodge23]

Awesome, Hodge.

I was leaning towards playing Tryster myself, although I'm gonna wait til tomorrow to make a decision I think. Would like to see what the weather brings. Supposedly the track is seeing rain right now and could see some more tomorrow. I may look to someone else if that's the case since Tryster's worse race came over the soft going in his last race. His PP's seem to indicate he prefers firm ground to run on. Not sure what my alternative would be as of now.

Not sure The Pizza Man would be a good play tomorrow myself, just because he's going to be way overbet as a Illinois bred who'll be the popular choice of the attending crowd. Plus the regression he's shown this year compared to last. I'd feel better about him rebounding to his form from last year if he wasn't as old as he is. I'll be playing against him as one who's best running is behind him and one who'll be overbet based on how popular he is. World Approval looks like the best of the US based horses to me.

Hmm rain would certainly put me off Tryster a bit, haven't bet yet so will wait a while, thanks for the heads up.
Pizza Man is +1100 here, is he much shorter there then?

Elsewhere, I'm giving Ballydoyle another chance in the Beverly D. I can't get away from her 2nd in the 1000 guineas here behind Minding, top top class form there, if she can recreate that, she wins.

In the St Leger, Clondaw Warrior is running for Ireland, the horse has won me a nice sum of money in the past but i fear this trip could be too short and i actually like the look of Da Big Hoss here.

Finally in the Secretariat I'm leaning towards Beach Patrol, although i haven't looked particularly in depth yet. Can you shed any light on this race guys? Thanks

 

[Sharkey]

Hmm rain would certainly put me off Tryster a bit, haven't bet yet so will wait a while, thanks for the heads up.
Pizza Man is +1100 here, is he much shorter there then?

Elsewhere, I'm giving Ballydoyle another chance in the Beverly D. I can't get away from her 2nd in the 1000 guineas here behind Minding, top top class form there, if she can recreate that, she wins.

In the St Leger, Clondaw Warrior is running for Ireland, the horse has won me a nice sum of money in the past but i fear this trip could be too short and i actually like the look of Da Big Hoss here.

Finally in the Secretariat I'm leaning towards Beach Patrol, although i haven't looked particularly in depth yet. Can you shed any light on this race guys? Thanks

I always bet into the parimutual pools, Hodge, so I'm not sure what the sportsbooks would be offering The Pizza Man at to be honest. Maybe @BluntTrauma21 can help us there? I suspect he goes off at 5/1 or even lower at post time with the pools, so you are getting a price at 11/1 if you do like him some.

Thanks for the heads up on Ballydoyle. Wasn't even aware she was running again so soon. That's great news in and of itself since I was fearing the worst with her. I've been wanting to bet her back since that last race of hers, which, if she's running again, I can only assume means she didn't take to the ground in that race and those instances where she was stumbling was just her slipping from underneath her.

I haven't really looked at anything else on the card yet, no, although I did noticed that one horse you liked some (Long Island something) in the past is entered in the Secretariat. Grass racing has never been my strong point. Well, neither has dirt racing the last couple of months either, but we won't mention that.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

The racebook I use has Pizza Man at 10-1 as of right now. I made a small play on him and put a unit on Tryster who's currently 7-2 on my book. this was before I read your post Shark, so kind of worried about Pizza man here but only a small bet so no biggie. If you're getting lines that'll lock in on your book, Hodge, then 11-1 definitely seems nice compared to what it's looking like it'll close at over here (which is why I hate the fucking racebook they close at what the line closes at post time instead of letting me lock a bet in liek the sportsbook does, ugh. But I digress ).

 

[t6p]

Heading to Saratoga for the weekend. The weather isn't looking so hot. Flying blind so we"ll see how it goes..

 

[Sharkey]

Track was rated "good to firm" to begin the day at Arlington and there doesn't look to be any more of the wet stuff in the forecast for today. I guess that eliminates the concern with Tryster who'll get my money in the Million along with Ballydoyle in the Beverly.

Best of luck gentlemen. And thanks again @Hodge23 for your thoughts.

 

[Hodge23]

Good to hear!

For tonight I've gone with:

2U Clondaw Warrior @ +250 (Wasn't going to bet him but the difference in Da Big Hoss and his odds was too big IMO)
2U Beach Patrol @ +225
3U Ballydoyle @ +250 (0.5U saver on Coolmore @ 6/1)
3U Tryster @ +350

Good luck guys

 

[Sharkey]

The Travers is still two weeks away, but looking at all the probables as of now it looks like that field is going to be loaded with both talent and betting opportunities.

Creator, Governor Malibu, Exaggerator, Destin, American Freedom, Laoban, Mohaymen, Connect, Mo Tom, and Gift Box are all listed as probables. Gun Runner, Brody's Cause, My Man Sam, Arrogate, Forever d'Oro and Economic Model are also under consideration for the race and are listed as possible.

Besides Nyquist and then maybe Stradivari, I'm drawing a blank on who else is missing from that group. Really looking forward to that race.

 

[Sharkey]

Hopefully @t6p can make it out there on Travers day. There's usually five or six Grade 1 races on the card and then a couple/few G2 races as well. One of the best racing days of the year in North America (maybe behind only Breeders Cup and the Belmont day cards), so if you have the opportunity to go as a racing fan then you almost have to.

 

[Hodge23]

Ive just discovered the joys of the US Tote !
They had Clondaw Warrior @ around +500 for the win and +200 to place which was crazy considering the books over here had him @ +250 just to Win! Saved myself 1U by using the tote in that race and will continue to look there in all races in future.

On to the race, Clondaw Warrior was given a poor ride i thought, too far back for a horse that isn't known for quickening and is better over further. To be fair to the horse he did really well to get up and finish 2nd, but he couldn't have caught the winner from where he was positioned IMO.

 

[Sharkey]

Great call with Beach Patrol, bud. Fun race to watch as well with Long Island Sound stretching him to the end.

 

[Sharkey]

Just read that Saratoga cancelled the rest of the racing for today about an hour ago due to weather. Hopefully @t6p kept himself safe and dry.

 

[Sharkey]

Ugh.

 

[Sharkey]

I think I'll stick to the dirt after today's Million. These "he/she who moves last..." races on the grass are too much for me.

 

[t6p]

Just read that Saratoga cancelled the rest of the racing for today about an hour ago due to weather. Hopefully @t6p kept himself safe and dry.

Appreciate it my friend. My buddy lives about a mile from the track so we just got back to his place. Just played some small longshot exactas and tri's, no luck. Looks like more rain tomorrow so we'll probably skip the track. I wish I could make it up for the Travers but it's looking like Labor Day weekend is going to be the next trip. Going to tail you guys on Tryster. Good luck guys

 

[Hodge23]

Poor run again, no excuses there. Wouldnt have liked the strong pace but she looks a shadow of the horse that was running at the start of the year. And she was getting weight as well, i think ugh sums it up about right!

The winner Sea Calisi is/was not a G1 horse in Europe although she is consistent which is more than can be said of Ballydoyle and Coolmore.

Anyway just above break even for today (+0.5U), going in to the Million. I am confident in Tryster although the more i think about it the more i fear Mondialiste. May put a saver on if the Tote has good prices.

 

[Sharkey]

Appreciate it my friend. My buddy lives about a mile from the track so we just got back to his place. Just played some small longshot exactas and tri's, no luck. Looks like more rain tomorrow so we'll probably skip the track. I wish I could make it up for the Travers but it's looking like Labor Day weekend is going to be the next trip. Going to tail you guys on Tryster. Good luck guys

Good to hear, T.

And having to miss the Travers may not be a bad thing if you're not into crowds and having to alter your course every few steps to sidetrack someone else. You've already got the Saratoga experience on multiple occasions anyways.

 

[Sharkey]

Poor run again, no excuses there. Wouldnt have liked the strong pace but she looks a shadow of the horse that was running at the start of the year. And she was getting weight as well, i think ugh sums it up about right!

The winner Sea Calisi is/was not a G1 horse in Europe although she is consistent which is more than can be said of Ballydoyle and Coolmore.

Anyway just above break even for today (+0.5U), going in to the Million. I am confident in Tryster although the more i think about it the more i fear Mondialiste. May put a saver on if the Tote has good prices.

Yeah, I couldn't find any excuse for her there, Hodge. Nor do I have any regrets playing her back in this spot either. It was worth the shot.

Mondialiste has been getting a fair amount of love from some of the horse racing people I follow on twitter, so you're not the only one seeing the danger to Tryster with that one. Could be simply a buzz horse, though. Not sure.

 

[Sharkey]

As of about 10 minutes ago, The Pizza Man was sitting at 7/2 on the board. Uh, yeah. See what I mean?

 

[Hodge23]

As of about 10 minutes ago, The Pizza Man was sitting at 7/2 on the board. Uh, yeah. See what I mean?

Wow thats insane, still 10/1 here. Would be tempted but i tend to agree with your comments about his age and recent form.

Haven't gone with a saver in the end, just sticking with Tryster.