Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[t6p]

I've learned more in this thread by far than any other thread on this site. Thanks to u Shark. I definitely hope we can keep it going. I'm looking forward to a Saratoga trip or two in the next few months.

 

[Sharkey]

Very very solid info from you in this thread Sharkey, i learn a lot, appreciate it!

Too bad i was a pussy and only put a 20 spot on Creator.

Cheers B.

Congrats on the win as well. There's nothing wrong with the payoff you got. Pretty much all the pro handicappers in horse racing live by the motto "bet a little to win a lot" and you did exactly that here whether it was the 20/1 line these other guys got from the sportsbook or the 16/1 others got betting the pools. Nice job.

 

[Sharkey]

I've learned more in this thread by far than any other thread on this site. Thanks to u Shark. I definitely hope we can keep it going. I'm looking forward to a Saratoga trip or two in the next few months.

I learned quite a bit myself, T, so thanks to you guys as well. What I mean is that a lot of stuff I posted in this thread I wouldn't have bothered to look up unless I had someone to share it with. For one example, that AP Indy-Mr Prospector pedigree line I mentioned a few pages back. I'm not looking that shit up without you guys in this thread. I already had my Belmont horse long before that. Basically as soon as the Peter Pan ended I knew who I was betting in the Belmont. But in my search for something to share with you guys I uncovered that pedigree info, and it looks like it may be a pretty useful piece of information going forward. Governor Malibu, Creator, Lani, and Suddenbreakingnews were the only four that had that nick in their pedigree and they finished 1st, 3rd, 4th and then 37th or wherever Suddenbreakingnews finished. That pedigree info could be a nice little addition to the stew come Travers time. May even be useful for other races as well. And if it does prove useful then that's one of the things we came up with as a group.

 

[Sharkey]

Frosted ended getting a 123 Beyer for his performance in the Met Mile yesterday, which makes it the highest BSF in a decade. He set the stakes record for the race I do believe and was also only a half second off Dr er's world record for the mile on dirt. Pretty incredible performance by that horse yesterday. And here I was at this time yesterday having trouble coming up with a winner and thinking the race was wide open. Haha. Yeah, there was something "wide open" about this race alright.

 

[Sharkey]

Gun Runner will be returning to the races next week in the G3 Matt Winn on the Stephen Foster undercard at Churchill. Unified will also be racing next week as well in the G3 Pegasus. The Ohio Derby takes place the week after. Not sure how bettable those races will be, but all three of them should feature fields with some 3 year-olds we've familiarized ourselves with this so far this year. As the spring campaign ends the summer campaign begins for these guys as they point to the Jim Dandy, Haskell and then ultimately the Travers at the end of August. Still a lot left to be decided as far as the 3 year-old championship goes, as Nyquist, Exaggerator, and Creator all have two G1 wins to their credit this year with each having won one of the classics each. That championship may ultimately be decided in the Travers. Should be an intriguing 2nd half to the year regardless.

 

[Sharkey]

Just wanted to share a link to a ranking that was conducted last year by the International Federation of Horse Racing Authorities, where they ranked the top 100 races in the world using criteria such as prestige, quality of fields, and things of that nature;

http://www.horseracingintfed.com/resources/LWBRR/Top-100-G1-Races_2013-2015.pdf

This is in reference to what I said about the Travers last month and how big of a race it actually is for 3 year-olds. It was ranked 21st overall with the Belmont being 17th, The Derby 18th, and the Preakness 53rd. The mainstream media coverage of horse racing brainwashes people into thinking that the three Triple Crown races are all that matter for the 3 year-olds each year with the "Triple Crown" itself being a made up title. But for those involved in the horse racing game the Travers is nearly (or is for some) as big as the Derby and Belmont and probably of more importance than the Preakness. The Travers is also older than those other three as well with it first being ran in 1864. Much like we saw this spring with the prep races before the Derby seeing these runners preparing for the Triple Crown season, we're now going to see this bunch regroup over the summer with the goal being to win the Travers. If the connections of a horse think they have a capable and healthy 3 year-old route runner in August then they'll be lining it up in the gates. It's a huge race for the crop each year regardless of how the mainstream media wishes to cover it.

 

[Sharkey]

I'm not going to find the specific comment, but to give you an example of how the mainstream media can influence some casual horse racing fans, last year after American Pharoah lost the Travers to Keen Ice there were comments below the video suggesting that (to paraphrase) "Pharoah shouldn't have been in this nothing race to begin with" or "the loss doesn't matter because the race isn't important", and things of that nature. There were quite a few comments like that after last year's Travers was posted on youtube and they were all ridiculous. It's the oldest G1 race in the US with a history as rich as any race in that country. It's raced for a purse that is in excess of well over $1 million. It also features fields that year after year after year make the Preakness fields we've seen look like G3 races in comparison. There's four classic races in the US every year for 3 year-olds, not just three, and the Travers is most certainly one of those four.

 

[Hodge23]

Belmont Oaks and Derby this Weekend. I don't know too much about US racing (from UK) but i try to watch as many of the big events as I can. Anyway a horse i really like, Ballydoyle, is running in the oaks and her main opposition, from an odds perspective is Catch a Glimpse. I know she won at the Breeders Cup last year and so obviously has a lot of talent, but then she has been running at G3 level this year - is this due to a lack of G1 races in the US for 3 year old fillies or has she perhaps been disappointing at home? Just trying to get a handle on how good the opposition is for Ballydoyle as the site i normally use to analyse races isn't showing this one as of yet. Thanks in advance

Edit: Also is it likely to be fast ground at Belmont? Can't seem to find that information anywhere.

 

[Sharkey]

Belmont Oaks and Derby this Weekend. I don't know too much about US racing (from UK) but i try to watch as many of the big events as I can. Anyway a horse i really like, Ballydoyle, is running in the oaks and her main opposition, from an odds perspective is Catch a Glimpse. I know she won at the Breeders Cup last year and so obviously has a lot of talent, but then she has been running at G3 level this year - is this due to a lack of G1 races in the US for 3 year old fillies or has she perhaps been disappointing at home? Just trying to get a handle on how good the opposition is for Ballydoyle as the site i normally use to analyse races isn't showing this one as of yet. Thanks in advance

Edit: Also is it likely to be fast ground at Belmont? Can't seem to find that information anywhere.

Would these PP's help you out at all, Hodge?

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=BEL&race=10&param1=4830&param2=621&param3=1330560

As far as G1 races for fillies on the grass, while I don't follow the turf scene nearly as closely as the dirt, I would definitely say that Catch a Glimpse's opportunities to compete in those quality of races would be limited to say the least so far this year. She's been 3 for 3 this year, including decisively beating the boys last time she ran with some of the boys in that race being graded stakes winners themselves.

The horse you're looking to back does appear to have a significant class edge over every other horse in that field, though. Multiple group wins on the grass overseas, including a G1. Those wins may have been over a shorter distance, but she'd be a class level above whatever she's competing against on Saturday. The only question with her may be the distance, and you'd be in a better position to answer that than I. Your horse is going to end up getting a whole lot of support at the windows, though, since you guys over there simply produce horses that are a class or two above what we see on the grass on this side of the pond.

I can't speak specifically for Belmont, but we do typically see firmer ground over here than what they usually run on in the UK.

 

[Sharkey]

I can't directly link up the PP's for that race for some reason. But you can find them here, Hodge, if wishing to look at them. Race 10 at Belmont.

https://downthestretchs.com/tag/free-past-performances/

 

[Hodge23]

Would these PP's help you out at all, Hodge?

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=BEL&race=10&param1=4830&param2=621&param3=1330560

As far as G1 races for fillies on the grass, while I don't follow the turf scene nearly as closely as the dirt, I would definitely say that Catch a Glimpse's opportunities to compete in those quality of races would be limited to say the least so far this year. She's been 3 for 3 this year, including decisively beating the boys last time she ran with some of the boys in that race being graded stakes winners themselves.

The horse you're looking to back does appear to have a significant class edge over every other horse in that field, though. Multiple group wins on the grass overseas, including a G1. Those wins may have been over a shorter distance, but she'd be a class level above whatever she's competing against on Saturday. The only question with her may be the distance, and you'd be in a better position to answer that than I. Your horse is going to end up getting a whole lot of support at the windows, though, since you guys over there simply produce horses that are a class or two above what we see on the grass on this side of the pond.

I can't speak specifically for Belmont, but we do typically see firmer ground over here than what they usually run on in the UK.

Awesome, great to get your take on the filly catch a glimpse and US racing in general. Interesting to see the US odds as well on that link, id love some of that +300 on Ballydoyle ! Its +225 here and i still really liked that price. Anyway yeah I'm pretty confident she should get the trip just fine, only finished 6th over the distance last time out in the french 1000 guineas but the ground was soft and against her that time. Only negative for me is the jockey. If the ground is anything like fast then i think she should take all the beating.

Thanks !

 

[Sharkey]

Awesome, great to get your take on the filly catch a glimpse and US racing in general. Interesting to see the US odds as well on that link, id love some of that +300 on Ballydoyle ! Its +225 here and i still really liked that price. Anyway yeah I'm pretty confident she should get the trip just fine, only finished 6th over the distance last time out in the french 1000 guineas but the ground was soft and against her that time. Only negative for me is the jockey. If the ground is anything like fast then i think she should take all the beating.

Thanks !

Best of luck to you.

I was thinking about playing the Suburban and possibly the Dwyer on the Saturday card myself, and if I can find something to play in either of those races (which I should be able to) I may end up tailing your pick as well since you have confidence in the distance and ground. So thanks to you for the heads up.

 

[Hodge23]

Had a great day at the races over here today, hoping to carry it on through to this evening on the US racing, mainly with Ballydoyle. Had a look at the Derby but couldn't find anything that stood out, possibly a small stake on Long Island Sound.
I did like the look of Mubtaahij in the suburban stakes based on his smart performance behind California Chrome at Meydan in the World Cup, but i haven't gone too in depth in to the race as of yet. What do you think @Sharkey, do you have any fancies for Belmont?

 

[Sharkey]

Had a great day at the races over here today, hoping to carry it on through to this evening on the US racing, mainly with Ballydoyle. Had a look at the Derby but couldn't find anything that stood out, possibly a small stake on Long Island Sound.
I did like the look of Mubtaahij in the suburban stakes based on his smart performance behind California Chrome at Meydan in the World Cup, but i haven't gone too in depth in to the race as of yet. What do you think @Sharkey, do you have any fancies for Belmont?

Nice job, bud. Stay hot.

And yeah, I settled on Shaman Ghost in the Suburban myself, although I do think Mubtaahij has a big, big shot if he runs that same race he did in the World Cup. I'm just not sure he will, though, with him entering off a 3+ month layoff and with spot possibly only being used as a prep race for the richer races in the next couple of months. I do like Mubtaahij a whole lot as a horse, though. Hell, he was my main Derby pick last year and I also used him heavily in the Belmont as well. If he's ready to run he'll be tough.

I like a lot of things Shaman Ghost is bringing into the race, though. He had a really nice win over the Belmont track last time out when he beat some of these guys in the Brooklyn, so the surface isn't going to beat him. That was at 12F so today's race at 10F isn't going to beat him. He's improved significantly from last year to this year, and he wasn't all that bad last year either having won the Queen's Plate and just nosed out in the Prince of Wales up here in Canada. He's showing great form right now with the improvement from race to race, and with this being the 3rd start of his form cycle, he may have another small improvement in store for today. He's also shown more adaptability to certain race paces than many of the other entries, so he shouldn't get beat that way. He is taking a step up in class this race from what he's been running against previously, but at 5/1 I'm going to take a shot with him and hope that he's up for it.

1. Shaman Ghost, 2. Effinex, 3. Mubtaahij, 4. Eagle

That's probably how I'd rank them. Effinex is the most proven horse in the field at this class level, and could be tough if you excuse his last race (which you probably could). Shaman Ghost has form and upside. Mubtaahij has proven his class and also has some upside, but when not be 100% fit. Eagle would have some kind of a shot, but looks up against it from a pace standpoint with little speed signed on.

 

[Hodge23]

Yeah i agree with everything you said re Mubtaahij, hoping he can recapture that form but the time off is a worry as you say. Shaman Ghosts last performance does look very impressive also. It certainly looks a close race and the odds over here would indicate that too, with effinex just edging favouritism.

For tonight I've ended up with:

1U Long Island Sound @ +600
1U Mubtaahij @ +450
5U Ballydoyle @ +225 (with a small saver on Catch a Glimpse)

Looking forward to a good evening of racing and then on to UFC 200!

Good Luck to You !

 

[Sharkey]

Yeah i agree with everything you said re Mubtaahij, hoping he can recapture that form but the time off is a worry as you say. Shaman Ghosts last performance does look very impressive also. It certainly looks a close race and the odds over here would indicate that too, with effinex just edging favouritism.

For tonight I've ended up with:

1U Long Island Sound @ +600
1U Mubtaahij @ +450
5U Ballydoyle @ +225 (with a small saver on Catch a Glimpse)

Looking forward to a good evening of racing and then on to UFC 200!

Good Luck to You !

Cheers man. Best of luck to you as well. I'll be riding along with you when it comes to Ballydoyle just not as heavy. Hopefully she can get it done for us.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

count me in on Shaman and Ballydoyle. GL boys.

 

[Hodge23]

Very Poor run from Ballydoyle to say the least, not sure what has happened there. Extremely disappointing. At least my saver on Catch a glimpse meant the night wasn't a complete disaster. All 3 of my runners were well backed here before the off so i was very optimistic, however they ran badly with the exception of Mubtaahij who i thought was going to get there at one point but then just faded towards the end. Perhaps the lack of race fitness took its toll in the end like we thought.

Oh well I'm still well up on the day and got UFC 200 to look forward to next!
Not gonna give up on the US racing just yet, i really find it very interesting. Been good discussing with you @Sharkey man, just a shame we found no winners this time!

 

[Sharkey]

Very Poor run from Ballydoyle to say the least, not sure what has happened there. Extremely disappointing. At least my saver on Catch a glimpse meant the night wasn't a complete disaster. All 3 of my runners were well backed here before the off so i was very optimistic, however they ran badly with the exception of Mubtaahij who i thought was going to get there at one point but then just faded towards the end. Perhaps the lack of race fitness took its toll in the end like we thought.

Oh well I'm still well up on the day and got UFC 200 to look forward to next!
Not gonna give up on the US racing just yet, i really find it very interesting. Been good discussing with you @Sharkey man, just a shame we found no winners this time!

Ah well. We'll get them next time.

I think Ballydoyle may have had an excuse with what I saw out there. It looked like she got squeezed by a couple of others towards the end of the backstretch and then proceeded to take a couple of really awkward steps shortly after. I did not like the looks of those at all. Her jock asked her for a little bit of run as they hit the stretch, but then quickly put the brakes on her for some reason. I haven't seen/read anything indicating she hurt herself, but my gut is telling me that was the reason she was held up at that point. I just hope it's nothing severe. The top two finishers would have been tough to beat regardless, though.

Shaman Ghost had no excuse for me, though. He just wasn't good enough today. Mubtaahij ran well for you. He was a little short at the end, although that may have been as much to do with the part of the track he ran on towards the end as it was his fitness level. From what I heard the rail was dead all day today and wasn't the part of the track to be running on. Probably wasn't the difference between winning and losing, though.

 

[Sharkey]

Here at about the 1:40 mark of the video;



There's a couple of steps that really don't look good at all. I hope it's just her slipping some and not anything more than that.