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Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Amazing thread Sharkey. Other than spending a weekend or two a year at Saratoga I know next to nothing about horse racing. Def learning a lot from reading your posts, much appreciated. I'll be tailing you guys tomorrow just for fun.
 
Shark has a great boxing and horse mind. A true throwback to the times when men were men. *Tips Hat
 
t6p said:
Amazing thread Sharkey. Other than spending a weekend or two a year at Saratoga I know next to nothing about horse racing. Def learning a lot from reading your posts, much appreciated. I'll be tailing you guys tomorrow just for fun.
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Cheers man. Everybody's welcome and to join in to share picks if they like. All about making a few bucks right? Although I've never been there myself Saratoga is my favourite track and the Travers is my favourite race. For me that race has more prestige than tomorrow's race and is usually a much better field. With it's history it's kind of a shame that it doesn't get the attention from casual fans that other races.
 
The best thing about this game is that you don't need to be right all that often to come out ahead of things. If you nail a 15/1 shot in a race you can afford to be wrong over the next 14 races and still come out even. Or whatever the odds are. There's a whole lot of room for error in horse racing as long as you can cash the occasional ticket with a horse at nice odds. Shit, my wife is sitting in Hawaii as I speak, my son got a new laptop, and I got my betting funded for me for a few months just because I happened to get lucky in the Arkansas Derby with a mere $90 investment.
 
If that Nyquist-Cherry Wine exacta hits tomorrow that probably pays 30/1 at least, maybe even 40/1. And that's using the odds on favourite who'll pay less than even odds to win. Nyquist-Exaggerator-Cherry Wine trifecta may pay something like 75/1 or thereabouts. If either of those hit we'll be playing with house money for some time to come. And if they don't then oh well. Odds say they're not supposed to hit. Then we'll have the Belmont in a few weeks where every horse in the field will be a big overlay if Nyquist wins tomorrow and then shows up for that race. We can try to make something then as well.
 
Proof that Andy Serling, who just happens to be one of the best public handicappers out there, reads Sherdog and is consortiuming us (7:30 mark);

 
I bet Andy Serling IS Consortium. Consortium's a Brit but he could be faking the Murrican accent there just to fuck with us. That thieving bastard.
 
Haven't been able to get in here to post this week, just been one of those crazy weeks but have been reading through the thread. Great stuff as usual Sharkey.

Gonna go ahead and tail Nyquist/Cherry Wine/Exaggerator.

I think I'm also gonna play the prop of Cherry Wine +105 head to head vs Collected given the post Collected drew and that its' supposed to be a muddy track. We like Cherry Wine enough to be the horse at + odds vs Collected right?

Also, I know we don't think Cherry Wine has MUCH of a legit shot to beat Nyquist and win this thing outright, but the sportsbook (as opposed to the racebook) has Cherry Wine at +3500 to win. Any value there at all? The horse was 20-1 on the morning line so odds almost doubled in the sportsbook. If it's a sloppy track and things break right maybe...?

Edit: Ha ha Sharkey and BT already covered it last page. I'm hitting Cherry Wine to win for a little bit at +3500. Can't pass up these odds.
 
mkess101 said:
Haven't been able to get in here to post this week, just been one of those crazy weeks but have been reading through the thread. Great stuff as usual Sharkey.

Gonna go ahead and tail Nyquist/Cherry Wine/Exaggerator.

I think I'm also gonna play the prop of Cherry Wine +105 head to head vs Collected given the post Collected drew and that its' supposed to be a muddy track. We like Cherry Wine enough to be the horse at + odds vs Collected right?

Also, I know we don't think Cherry Wine has MUCH of a legit shot to beat Nyquist and win this thing outright, but the sportsbook (as opposed to the racebook) has Cherry Wine at +3500 to win. Any value there at all? The horse was 20-1 on the morning line so odds almost doubled in the sportsbook. If it's a sloppy track and things break right maybe...?

Edit: Ha ha Sharkey and BT already covered it last page. I'm hitting Cherry Wine to win for a little bit at +3500. Can't pass up these odds.
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Cheers man.

I think Cherry Wine over Collected is worth a shot at plus money. I like Collected a little bit too and if I was going 4 or 5 deep looking for the super in the race he'd probably be in there somewhere. His post is okay if they decide to go with a stalking trip for him today, which is what they'll probably do I'm guessing. But I do think there's legitimate questions there with the distance & race shape with him and thus think Cherry Wine has the better shot at hitting the board.

Best of luck to you.
 
Just noticed this morning that Gettysburg was scratched out of the Sir Barton, so I can't make that play. Too bad since I don't really have an alternative to him in the race at the right odds. Dazzling Gem looked 2nd best to him to me, but I'm not sure it's worth it at 2/1 or whatever he goes off as. I'll pass on the race.
 
Two horses have died today at the Pimlico track. In the first four races. One of those, Homeboykris, died after winning the first race on the card. He was an old veteran of 9 years-old and had raced in the Derby 6 years ago. He was owned by Joe Torre. After winning the race and after the trip to the winner's circle, the horse collapsed from an apparent heart attack. The other one was a 4 year-old filly named Pramedya, who broke down in the middle of her race, busted her left front leg and had to be euthanized on the spot. Her jockey was also injured in the fall as he broke his collarbone. All around shitty start to the racing today.
 
Stradivari is even money right now? What? Nyquist is 9/5 and Exaggerator is 7/2. But holy shit. Even this early in the betting Stradivari at even money is insane. Someone out there has basically dropped a huge six figure bet down on him. The only thing that explains those odds.
 
Apparently it was an $80,000 win bet on Stradivari that jumbled his odds so much. Crazy. May have been his owners or some other rich person connected to the horse I'm guessing. Not something to worry about since the bet was put in so early. Sharp money bets that big wait til the last couple of minutes before the race.
 
I'll be heading out the door soon to the OTB to make these plays for Preakness;


- Nyquist over Cherry Wine in a straight exacta

- Nyquist over Exagerrator/Cherry Wine over Exaggerator/Cherry Wine in a couple of trifectas


Keeping it simple. I wouldn't fault anyone for having Exaggerator positioned in the top spot for defensive reasons and it might be smart to do that, but I have to bet my opinion here.
 
I bet it was some rich guy's wife making him bet the horse whose name she liked the most.
 
Sharkey said:
I'll be heading out the door soon to the OTB to make these plays for Preakness;


- Nyquist over Cherry Wine in a straight exacta

- Nyquist over Exagerrator/Cherry Wine over Exaggerator/Cherry Wine in a couple of trifectas


Keeping it simple. I wouldn't fault anyone for having Exaggerator positioned in the top spot for defensive reasons and it might be smart to do that, but I have to bet my opinion here.
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GL man, let's get it.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
I bet it was some rich guy's wife making him bet the horse whose name she liked the most.
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Yes. It's much more likely to be something silly like that than a smart money bet that's for sure. Pretty dumb to make such a substantial bet so early in the wagering regardless.
 
Tailed you guys with Nyquist/Cherry Wine/Exaggerator in a few trifectas and exactas. Also took Cherry Wine to win and show. I can't watch the race live, but I'll check it out when I get home. Best of luck guys and thanks again for all the great info.
 
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