Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

1st - Nyquist
2nd - Exaggerator
3rd - Gun Runner

Creator was following Exaggerator and moved at the same time he did, but while Exaggerator got through the tiring horses Creator ended up getting blocked badly near the end of the far turn. Shitty. Always a risk with a horse of that style, though.

 

[Sharkey]

Exacta paid $30.60 for $2. Trifecta paid $86.70 for $1. Superfecta paid $542.10 for $1. Those be some shitty ass payouts for a field with 20 horses. That's two years in a row where the exotic payouts have been really weak.

 

[kenfloshogun]

Derby was awesome, crazy experience.

Moving on to the Preakness, looks like Nyquist is at -110 to win it, 7/2 to win the triple crown.

Prior to the Derby I put a couple of units on "Any Horse Wins 2+ Triple Crown Races" at even money, quite like that bet.

 

[Sharkey]

Derby was awesome, crazy experience.

Moving on to the Preakness, looks like Nyquist is at -110 to win it, 7/2 to win the triple crown.

Prior to the Derby I put a couple of units on "Any Horse Wins 2+ Triple Crown Races" at even money, quite like that bet.

Glad to hear you had a great time. Cash any tickets?

Nyquist is going to be tough to beat in the Preakness provided that effort in the Derby didn't take anything out of it. He should be okay. He's got the ideal running style that generally wins the Preakness as well. Not sure I'll be betting it myself, though, since it's hard not seeing that Nyquist-Exaggerator exacta coming in once again. Maybe I'll play for the trifecta if I can find a third option I like to play underneath and can offer up enough value to make it worthwhile. Otherwise I'll just pass on it and look to make it up in the Belmont.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Glad to hear you had a great time. Cash any tickets?

Nyquist is going to be tough to beat in the Preakness provided that effort in the Derby didn't take anything out of it. He should be okay. He's got the ideal running style that generally wins the Preakness as well. Not sure I'll be betting it myself, though, since it's hard not seeing that Nyquist-Exaggerator exacta coming in once again. Maybe I'll play for the trifecta if I can find a third option I like to play underneath and can offer up enough value to make it worthwhile. Otherwise I'll just pass on it and look to make it up in the Belmont.

You think Exaggerator has a chance to finally catch him or is Nyquist just too good for him?

 

[Sharkey]

You think Exaggerator has a chance to finally catch him or is Nyquist just too good for him?

It depends, Blunt. If the track maintenance crew has the track the same way it was on Derby day then I'm not sure anybody can beat Nyquist in the Preakness. That race in the Derby pisses me off still. And not just because of what happened to Creator on the far turn. That was bad enough. But a 45.72 half mile and the horses in 2nd and 3rd at that point then go on to finish 1st and 3rd? That's ridiculous. Both Nyquist and Gun Runner are nice horses no doubt. But if that was a legitimate 45.72 half mile on a track that was playing fair odds are great that both of them get caught and beaten decisively in the stretch by horses like Exaggerator and the like.

It was like that all day as well. There was quite a few shorter dirt races that were ran in 44 seconds to the half mile. Every single winner in those dirt races was within two lengths of the lead at the half mile as well. The off the pace types like Exaggerator had their chances compromised big time during the whole day because of the way the track was. It's been happening far too often in recent years where track crews (purposely?) speed their tracks up a bunch on the track's big days.

 

[kenfloshogun]

Glad to hear you had a great time. Cash any tickets?

Nyquist is going to be tough to beat in the Preakness provided that effort in the Derby didn't take anything out of it. He should be okay. He's got the ideal running style that generally wins the Preakness as well. Not sure I'll be betting it myself, though, since it's hard not seeing that Nyquist-Exaggerator exacta coming in once again. Maybe I'll play for the trifecta if I can find a third option I like to play underneath and can offer up enough value to make it worthwhile. Otherwise I'll just pass on it and look to make it up in the Belmont.

Cashed a couple tickets, so much harder to cap the earlier races (I've been calling them prelims) with limited information.

Had a couple units on Nyquist at +1200 (Bet it back in January). And hit a couple of exactas.
Do you normally box your exactas/tris or do you feel you're losing value by doing so?

 

[BluntTrauma21]

It depends, Blunt. If the track maintenance crew has the track the same way it was on Derby day then I'm not sure anybody can beat Nyquist in the Preakness. That race in the Derby pisses me off still. And not just because of what happened to Creator on the far turn. That was bad enough. But a 45.72 half mile and the horses in 2nd and 3rd at that point then go on to finish 1st and 3rd? That's ridiculous. Both Nyquist and Gun Runner are nice horses no doubt. But if that was a legitimate 45.72 half mile on a track that was playing fair odds are great that both of them get caught and beaten decisively in the stretch by horses like Exaggerator and the like.

It was like that all day as well. There was quite a few shorter dirt races that were ran in 44 seconds to the half mile. Every single winner in those dirt races was within two lengths of the lead at the half mile as well. The off the pace types like Exaggerator had their chances compromised big time during the whole day because of the way the track was. It's been happening far too often in recent years where track crews (purposely?) speed their tracks up a bunch on the track's big days.

Those track crews are ruining the most entertaining part of the race then. It's like taking away the possibility of the late ko in boxing. When a horse closes down the stretch out of nowhere that beats almost all excitement in sports.

 

[Sharkey]

Cashed a couple tickets, so much harder to cap the earlier races (I've been calling them prelims) with limited information.

Had a couple units on Nyquist at +1200 (Bet it back in January). And hit a couple of exactas.
Do you normally box your exactas/tris or do you feel you're losing value by doing so?

Good job man. Sometimes it is easier to handicap races just by using the racing form, though. You don't over think it when it comes to that and you can rely on some really good betting angles that way as well (lone speed, class drops, identifying strong middle moves, etc). Often you don't even need any information on them save for the appearance of a horse. One of my favourite angles simply based on appearance is to bet on a horse that has their mane braided. You'd be surprised how often those horses end up in the winner's circle. The logic behind it is pretty simple. If the connections of a horse have gone through the trouble of prettying up their horse then they must have a lot of confidence that it's going to end up getting it's photo taken after the race. If you know what I mean.

I do tend to box my exactas most of the time, yes. With tris I'm a little more likely to have a key horse in there, though. But it depends. If I think three or four horses have relatively equal chances of winning or hitting the board then I box the tri. But if I see only one or two likely winners I'll play those two in the winner spot on the tickets and then use the third and/or fourth horse underneath. Just depends what my opinion of the race is.

 

[Sharkey]

Those track crews are ruining the most entertaining part of the race then. It's like taking away the possibility of the late ko in boxing. When a horse closes down the stretch out of nowhere that beats almost all excitement in sports.

It's partially my fault for not adjusted my wagering to fit how a track may be playing, though. But in the case of the Derby my bets were made well in advance of the race. At least a few hours before it happened. Still sucks that these track crews turn their tracks into concrete speedways and really only do so. To give you an idea on how fast the track was Derby day, Nyquist won the race in 2:01.31, which on raw time was the fastest the race has been won since 2003. Yet he only got a 103 BSF, which is one of the lowest since 2003 as well. Nyquist ran basically the same time as Barbaro did in 2006 yet Barbaro got a 111 BSF for his effort. The track was silly fast Derby day and it sucks since the horses weren't competing on a level playing field.

 

[kenfloshogun]

3 smallish favourites at Belmont tomorrow. Think it'd be worth playing the pick 6 (or pick 3,4,5)?
Any reads on these horses? (Races 6,7,9)

 

[Sharkey]

3 smallish favourites at Belmont tomorrow. Think it'd be worth playing the pick 6 (or pick 3,4,5)?
Any reads on these horses? (Races 6,7,9)

I haven't decided with who yet, but I'll probably end up trying to beat both the top 2 choices, Unified and Adventist, in the Peter Pan tomorrow. Governor Malibu is very intriguing to me at anything close to his 10/1 morning line, although I still haven't ruled out making a bet on Decorated Soldier or Wild About Deb. I doubt I`ll be betting him to win, but I`m also hoping Lost Iron runs well enough tomorrow and goes on to the Belmont with that long distance pedigree of his.

 

[Sharkey]

Yeah, I`m going to play Governor Malibu in the Peter Pan tomorrow. I liked how he was able to sustain his run at the end of his last race to make up a few lengths on Awesome Speed and get the nose in front at the wire after Awesome Speed was allowed to crawl on the lead to the tune of a 50+ second half. That was strong move by Governor Malibu. 10/1 might be wishful thinking, although I`ll okay with betting him at something close to 8/1 if I can get it. If Unified can back up the performance from his last race they`re all racing for 2nd anyways. But seeing as that was a sprint race over a sloppy track I`m willing to take a chance here and Governor Malibu seems to fit best for the upset with the added distance and a dry track.

The race after the Peter Pan, the Man O`War Stakes on the grass, also looks interesting based on the PP`s as it looks like there might be a lone speed horse in the field and a quality one at that. Go Around, who is also 10/1 on the morning line. The lone speed, highest Brisnet speed figure in field last race, as well as firing a bullet work last time out, I`m going to take a shot with this one too at anything close to those morning line odds.

 

[Sharkey]

Those are races 9 & 10 at Belmont tomorrow. Just to clear that up. If anybody wants to look at the PP`s of those races or maybe another one on the card you can find them here with just a little bit of navigating;

https://downthestretchs.com/tag/free-past-performances/

 

[Sharkey]

That sucks when you land on a 12/1 horse who was 5th choice in the betting only to see him finish a fast closing 2nd by a half length to the 1/2 favourite. Unified wins the Peter Pan with Governor Malibu almost running him down at the very end.

 

[kenfloshogun]

Pumped for this Saturday. Hope we can find some value.

Nyquist/Exxagerator exacta won't pay much will it?

 

[Sharkey]

Pumped for this Saturday. Hope we can find some value.

Nyquist/Exxagerator exacta won't pay much will it?

No, that one won't be paying much at all. Especially since Gun Runner was ruled out of the Preakness this morning. That leaves Exagerrator and Lani as the only two coming out of the Derby to challenge Nyquist. The rest are a bunch of horses that weren't even good enough to make the Derby starting gate in the first place and then a late blooming horse like Stradivari, who got a big figure in his last race after having things his own way against a bunch of nothing horses in a non-stakes race.

Can't wait until the Belmont and then later the Travers for this year's crop.

 

[Sharkey]

Nyquist is very unlikely to get beat by one horse like Exaggerator in the Preakness, in my opinion. It's going to take a combination of horses to beat him. Meaning some horse is going to have to really challenge Nyquist early in the race and then Exagerrator comes along to pick up the pieces late. The problem is that the horse that challenges Nyquist is not going to win that one-on-one battle, and are only going to destroy their chances of a good finish. Nobody is going out there to purposely be the sacrificial lamb for Exaggerator.

On a related note, I went back and watched Nyquist's races again a few days ago looking for a in the armour, and ended up coming out of that with even more respect for him. I've always saw him as a tough and gritty horse that doesn't back down from a challenge on the track. But when rewatching him a few days ago I saw a horse that not only doesn't back down from a challenge, but actively searches for a challenge from other horses. If you watch him in the San Vicente against Exaggerator or the Florida Derby against Mohaymen, he actually turns his head while waiting for the challenge from those two as if to say "bring it on!" before he did his serious running. It looks like he was relishing that. In both of those races, Exaggerator and especially Mohaymen conceded the race to Nyquist well before the finish line as well. They basically gave up trying to beat him and the points where they did so in the race were very obvious. I've been getting into the herd dynamics of handicapping over the last few years and while I wouldn't say Nyquist is as fast as such horses as California Chrome or American Pharoah at the same point in their careers, Nyquist may have the best and most competitive mind I've seen from a 3 year-old horse in that span. He runs his races like he's in total control over every horse in the race. He thinks he is the leader of the pack. He thinks he is the boss and loves when other horses try to challenge him for that position. It'll be very interesting how he reacts if/when another horse is up to that challenge, but I'm not sure that there's a horse in this year's crop that will beat him mentally in an extended one-on-one battle in the stretch unless Nyquist just isn't up to it physically.

 

[kenfloshogun]

Damn, didn't know about Gun Runner.
Sounds like there could be value in Nyquist at -125?

Think I'm going to play that for a couple units.

Do you follow any of the earlier races?

 

[Sharkey]

Damn, didn't know about Gun Runner.
Sounds like there could be value in Nyquist at -125?

Think I'm going to play that for a couple units.

Do you follow any of the earlier races?

I may look at the Sir Barton earlier on the Preakness card since there could be a few horses in that race that were on the Derby trail earlier in the year. Horses Like Gettysburg, Dazzling Gem and a couple of others. There's also the Pimlico Special for older horses on Friday that I may look at as well. But otherwise, not really. There's generally not much for me to look at that grabs my interest on the Preakness undercard every year. The Belmont Stakes day card with the Belmont itself, the Met Mile, the Woody Stephens, etc., on the other hand is typically pretty tremendous, though.

I suspect Nyquist goes off at something like 3/5 in the Preakness, so from that standpoint there probably is value in him at -125. I'd have trouble betting that line myself since I don't think I would ever bet an odds-ons favourite in an 11 or 12 horse field. But I do think he is going to be very tough to beat in the race if he runs his race, which I suspect he will. There hasn't been any signs leading up to the race that the Derby took much of anything out of him. Exaggerator is 0-4 against him so far, and that's the horse who has by far the best chance of upsetting him. Stradivari may have some potential based on the way he won his last two races, but that's a huge ask for him to go from decisively beating weak maiden types to beating a horse of Nyquist's quality in a G1 race. Horses like Stradivari are typically sucker bets for the most part since they're so untested coming into a race like this. He'll be overbet anyways and is very likely 3rd choice. Horses like Collected, Uncle Lino, Awesome Speed, Fellowship, etc., are all okay horses and there's not much seperating them, but they've also come up short against other horses that Nyquist has decisively beaten already. Hard to see any of those beating both Nyquist and Exaggerator.