Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

I was listening to an interview from Exaggerator's trainer and he raised an interesting point if looking for a glimmer of hope in trying to bet against Nyquist in the Preakness. He made a point in saying that the worst race of Nyquist's career so far came when he was asked to run back after a short 19 day rest. That was when Nyquist was a 2 year-old. And in looking up the Beyer and Thorograph numbers he was right. He ran a 82 BSF on Sept 7th of last year and then dipped to a 79 on Sept 26th. That 79 has been his worst BSF so far. On the TG sheets, he went from a 3 1/4 on Sept 7th to a 6 1/2 on Sept 26th. That was a big drop on the TG sheets and in fact it's was almost classified as an X race by them. It may be nothing at all since it was only one race, and who the hell even knows if the short rest is responsible for the regression or how much so. I'm not going to give it much attention myself. But for a gambler looking to beat Nyquist then maybe it's something? There are many, many horses that have proven to need more time between races than others, so the thought of Nyquist being one of those isn't outlandish at all.

 

[Sharkey]

This news is probably no interest to anyone but myself, but the owners have transferred Danzing Candy over to Bob Baffert's barn. Being a fan of the horse earlier in the year and someone who backed him in the betting a couple of times, this is a great move for that horse. Baffert is about as good as it gets when it comes to getting these front end speed types to relax early in the race, which is just what Danzing Candy needs to do. Baffert also has the persuasive clout to talk the owners out of entering the horse in a race that he probably has no business being in. Very interested in what the future holds for this horse, although I suspect that he has some big wins in sprint and/or mile races in his future. This guy is fast. I'll happily back him with my money again if he shows up in those types of races.

 

[Sharkey]

Just saw the weather forecast for the Preakness. Rain. More rain. And then even more rain. Huh. I was sort of looking at Cherry Wine as the leading candidate for trifecta filler in 3rd anyways. Having broke his maiden by winning over 9 lengths in the slop could make that decision that much easier.

 

[Sharkey]

I guess I should wait for the post draw that is set to take place in a couple of hours before deciding anything. If it does rain on Saturday for the race any of the early speed types that draw inside will be moved up a notch by me. And conversely, any early speed types that draw outside will be moved down a notch. Such as Collected in both cases. He may be too hard to ignore as a trifecta filler if he draws an inside post and gets to ride the rail all the way around the track.

 

[Sharkey]

Preakness post draw and morning line odds;

1 - Cherry Wine 20/1
2 - Uncle Lino 20/1
3 - Nyquist 3/5
4 - Awesome Speed 30/1
5 - Exaggerator 3/1
6 - Lani 30/1
7 - Collected 10/1
8 - Laoban 30/1
9 - Abiding Star 30/1
10 - Fellowship 30/1
11 - Stradivari 8/1

 

[Sharkey]

Miss Katie Mae is 3/1 in the Hilltop? Did I see that right? The girl should be even odds or something like that. I'm expecting her to jog to the wire in 1st.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Miss Katie Mae is 3/1 in the Hilltop? Did I see that right? The girl should be even odds or something like that. I'm expecting her to jog to the wire in 1st.

Is that today? What track is she running on?

 

[Sharkey]

Is that today? What track is she running on?

Ignore that my friend. She just ran and got beat at the very end by a length or so.

 

[Sharkey]

i.e. I have no idea what I'm talking about when it comes to the turf races.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Ignore that my friend. She just ran and got beat at the very end by a length or so.

Ah sorry that sucks man. They're throwing out a bunch of props again for the Preakness tomorrow. A few interesting ones that caught my eye:

Cherry Wine to show is 5-1. Nyquist wins by 1 or more lengths is Evens. Nyquist/Cherry Wine exacta paying 21-1.

 

[Sharkey]

Ah sorry that sucks man. They're throwing out a bunch of props again for the Preakness tomorrow. A few interesting ones that caught my eye:

Cherry Wine to show is 5-1. Nyquist wins by 1 or more lengths is Evens. Nyquist/Cherry Wine exacta paying 21-1.

I'll be playing that Nyquist/Cherry Wine exacta tomorrow myself. I'll also use Cherry Wine in 2nd and 3rd in some tris with the two favourites as well. The more I look at Cherry Wine the more I like him in this spot. Not to win, of course. But think he's set to run a good race. He's got a very juicy pattern to his figures, whether that be BSF, Bris, or Thorograph. He's a late runner with consistent late pace figures in the 90's who should get a pace setup in the race with more than half of the Preakness field being horses that like to run on or near the lead, including a couple of cheap speed types that have no choice but to try to steal the race on the lead. The race shape fits his running style. Cherry Wine is also making his third start off the layoff, which is generally when a horse puts forth his best effort in their form cycles. The Roman's barn has been doing very well recently as well. Cherry Wine also has that impressive win in the slop like mentioned before, which backs up his breeding that says he should run well on off tracks. He's very unlikely to beat both Nyquist and Exaggerator tomorrow unless something crazy happens, but if one of them stumble I think Cherry Wine could be the one to capitalize and rounds out the exacta. With this being his his 5th start of the form cycle it wouldn't surpise me if Exaggerator is the one of the two favourites that stumble and allows a longshot to finish 2nd behind Nyquist. If both favourites run to form then this is the one I like to round out the trifecta.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Thanks for the feedback buddy. Played cherry wine to show, the nyquist/cherry wine exacta and will be looking to play him in a tri with exagerrator too. GL!

 

[Sharkey]

I've also landed on Gettysburg tomorrow for the Sir Barton. Race 11 at Pimlico. He's 5/1 on the morning line and I think there's a good chance he's every bit of that as they enter the gate. His race in the Arkansas Derby was sneaky good. Out of the five horses that were up close to the lead in that race he was the only one who hung around a little bit at the end after the fast pace and he was the one who set it all the way around. He's getting a big class drop this time around as well as a slight drop in distance. There's also very little speed in this race besides him. There's a few other horses that like to sit close to the lead, but those horses were doing it when the pace was 48 or 49 seconds to the half. Gettysburg does that with 46 or 47 second halves. He's basically the lone speed in the race on a track and with race conditions that should favour his style. I'm not crazy about his outside post, but he should be fine.

 

[Sharkey]

Thanks for the feedback buddy. Played cherry wine to show, the nyquist/cherry wine exacta and will be looking to play him in a tri with exagerrator too. GL!

re: One of the points on Cherry Wine. The Roman's barn just won the Grade 1 Black Eyed Susan with Go Maggie Go and easily at that. If Roman's stays hot for one more day we'll be in good shape.

 

[Sharkey]

Not only did Roman's win the race with Go Maggie Go, but he's also the trainer of the big longshot who finished 2nd in the race as well for a $202 exacta. Stay hot.

 

[Sharkey]

Thanks for the feedback buddy. Played cherry wine to show, the nyquist/cherry wine exacta and will be looking to play him in a tri with exagerrator too. GL!

Here's a little stat that might help you feel okay about your show bet on Cherry Wine. Since he has began training Dale Roman's has had 19 entries in the four races at classic distances for 3 year-olds. The Derby, Preakness, Belmont and Travers. Out of those 19 entries 10 of them have hit the board for a 2-1-7 record*. 16 of the 19 have finished in the top half of the field. 7 of the 10 that hit the board for him were longshots at 10/1 or higher, including both of his winners (Shackleford in the 2011 Preakness and Keen Ice in last year's Travers). What we have here is a hot trainer right now, who's already shown to have a tremendous knack for getting his horses to perform at these classic distances on the big days. He's coming into this race with a horse who's coming in on a very healthy performance pattern, who's at the peak of his form cycle, who's running style should benefit from the race shape, and who's proven over what very likely is an off track. At 20/1 on the morning line and in the early betting so far, what's not to like?

*Nolan's Cat 3rd in 2005 Belmont. Paddy O'Prado 3rd in 2010 Derby. Shackleford 1st in 2011 Preakness. Dullahan 3rd in 2012 Derby. First Dude 2nd in 2010 Preakness, 3rd in 2010 Belmont and 3rd in 2010 Travers. Medal Count 3rd in 2014 Belmont. Keen Ice 3rd in 2015 Belmont and 1st in 2015 Travers...All ran for Romans.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Here's a little stat that might help you feel okay about your show bet on Cherry Wine. Since he has began training Dale Roman's has had 19 entries in the four races at classic distances for 3 year-olds. The Derby, Preakness, Belmont and Travers. Out of those 19 entries 10 of them have hit the board for a 2-1-7 record*. 16 of the 19 have finished in the top half of the field. 7 of the 10 that hit the board for him were longshots at 10/1 or higher, including both of his winners (Shackleford in the 2011 Preakness and Keen Ice in last year's Travers). What we have here is a hot trainer right now, who's already shown to have a tremendous knack for getting his horses to perform at these classic distances on the big days. He's coming into this race with a horse who's coming in on a very healthy performance pattern, who's at the peak of his form cycle, who's running style should benefit from the race shape, and who's proven over what very likely is an off track. At 20/1 on the morning line and in the early betting so far, what's not to like?

*Nolan's Cat 3rd in 2005 Belmont. Paddy O'Prado 3rd in 2010 Derby. Shackleford 1st in 2011 Preakness. Dullahan 3rd in 2012 Derby. First Dude 2nd in 2010 Preakness, 3rd in 2010 Belmont and 3rd in 2010 Travers. Medal Count 3rd in 2014 Belmont. Keen Ice 3rd in 2015 Belmont and 1st in 2015 Travers...All ran for Romans.

Does make me feel good for sure. Btw I can get 35-1 on cherry wine so maybe worth a small stab on that?

 

[Sharkey]

Does make me feel good for sure. Btw I can get 35-1 on cherry wine so maybe worth a small stab on that?

At 35/1 what the hell are you doing asking me for? Haha.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Lol yeah stupid question. Can lock it in since it's on the sportsbook too so no fuckery if the line drops by post time.

 

[Sharkey]

Lol yeah stupid question. Can lock it in since it's on the sportsbook too so no fuckery if the line drops by post time.

Best of luck. If we're liking him as the 3rd most likely to hit the board you pretty much have to play him at those odds. It's very unlikely he wins, but what happens if Exaggerator isn't ready to fire his best effort with this being his 5th race of his form cycle and lets say Nyquist gets caught behind horses and is boxed in with his inside draw and doesn't like the mud kicked in his face. Having both of those things happen is a stretch, but crazier things have happened in this game.