Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

My mistake. Classic Empire finished 3rd after watching the replay. Don't know what I was looking at the first time I watched it.

 

[Sharkey]

Most of the focus coming into weekend were on Classic Empire and El Areeb who are on many people's top 5 lists of early Derby contenders. Classic Empire stumbled badly in the Holy Bull, but you can cross a line through that race if you want due to how uncomfortable he was before the race. El Areeb won his race in the Withers and won it clearly by open lengths, yet I wasn't all that impressed by the way he finished the race. He physically looked the a horse who was pretty much at his limit when it comes to distance, and one who might struggle at 9F and beyond.

 

[Sharkey]

A couple of plays for me in today's Southwest Stakes;

- #4 Lookin At Lee (8/1 ML) to win/place
- #5 Rowdy the Warrior (20/1 ML) to show
- Lookin At Lee over Rowdy the Warrior in a exacta

Both of these guys are off the pace types (Lee will come from last) and with a field of 13 set to run, and with most of the field being on or near the lead types, I think these two should very well get their pace to run at. I have a hard time seeing the favourite, Uncontested, getting away with an easy lead in this race, and if he does get pace pressure he's already shown to be quite vulnerable in that situation in his start two back when he was challenged early and faded badly in the stretch. Both Lookin At Lee and Rowdy the Warrior fit that E2 lung opener angle as well that has been good to us, as Lee improved his E2 in his last race by 12 over his previous race and 23 over his start two back. Rowdy improved his E2 by 18 in his last race and by 22 in any of his three races before that. Much prefer Lookin At Lee out of those two since he's already shown some quality and class having already run against the best of this year's crop so far and fared well. I'm also not sure if I've seen a horse in this year's crop who has been able to sustain a late run as long as this guy can so far. He reminds me very much of Creator in running style and how long he can sustain a run to the finish. In fact, going in I can see this race playing out almost exactly like last year's Arkansas Derby with Lee playing the role of Creator*, Rowdy playing the role of Whitmore or Suddenbreakingnews, and Uncontested playing the role of Cupid. So that's how I'm going to play it.

*Lookin At Lee has the same trainer/jockey combination as did Creator as well, and that combo has been winning at a 26% clip and finishing top two 44% of the time over the last couple of weeks.

 

[t6p]

A couple of plays for me in today's Southwest Stakes;

- #4 Lookin At Lee (8/1 ML) to win/place
- #5 Rowdy the Warrior (20/1 ML) to show
- Lookin At Lee over Rowdy the Warrior in a exacta

Both of these guys are off the pace types (Lee will come from last) and with a field of 13 set to run, and with most of the field being on or near the lead types, I think these two should very well get their pace to run at. I have a hard time seeing the favourite, Uncontested, getting away with an easy lead in this race, and if he does get pace pressure he's already shown to be quite vulnerable in that situation in his start two back when he was challenged early and faded badly in the stretch. Both Lookin At Lee and Rowdy the Warrior fit that E2 lung opener angle as well that has been good to us, as Lee improved his E2 in his last race by 12 over his previous race and 23 over his start two back. Rowdy improved his E2 by 18 in his last race and by 22 in any of his three races before that. Much prefer Lookin At Lee out of those two since he's already shown some quality and class having already run against the best of this year's crop so far and fared well. I'm also not sure if I've seen a horse in this year's crop who has been able to sustain a late run as long as this guy can so far. He reminds me very much of Creator in running style and how long he can sustain a run to the finish. In fact, going in I can see this race playing out almost exactly like last year's Arkansas Derby with Lee playing the role of Creator*, Rowdy playing the role of Whitmore or Suddenbreakingnews, and Uncontested playing the role of Cupid. So that's how I'm going to play it.

*Lookin At Lee has the same trainer/jockey combination as did Creator as well, and that combo has been winning at a 26% clip and finishing top two 44% of the time over the last couple of weeks.

Tailed everything except I boxed the exacta. Thanks for posting and GL!

 

[Sharkey]

Tailed everything except I boxed the exacta. Thanks for posting and GL!

Let's get this prep season off to a good start, T. Best of luck to you as well.

 

[Sharkey]

Lookin At Lee's BSF progression so far during his career, starting with his most recent race; 83, 83, 72, 71, 59, and 52.

If anybody is into pattern hancicapping, Lee's coming into this race after having literally paired up his Beyers in his last race ("paired" being considered within 2 pts of each other), which is usually a very good sign for further improvement for young developing horses the next time they run (i.e. today for Lee). It looks even better on him since this is the 2nd time he paired up his Beyers, and the first time he did it his next race saw an 11 point jump. If he gets another 11 point jump today I can't see him losing.

Rowdy the Warrior himself is also coming into this race after having paired up his last two races, although in his case it was his Brisnet figures of 85 for each of his last two races and not his BSF which saw a bit of a jump (to 79 from 70).

 

[Sharkey]

Have you seen this bit of news @kenfloshogun?

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/219939/classic-empire-out-of-fountain-of-youth

 

[timmyclax22]

A couple of plays for me in today's Southwest Stakes;

- #4 Lookin At Lee (8/1 ML) to win/place
- #5 Rowdy the Warrior (20/1 ML) to show
- Lookin At Lee over Rowdy the Warrior in a exacta

Both of these guys are off the pace types (Lee will come from last) and with a field of 13 set to run, and with most of the field being on or near the lead types, I think these two should very well get their pace to run at. I have a hard time seeing the favourite, Uncontested, getting away with an easy lead in this race, and if he does get pace pressure he's already shown to be quite vulnerable in that situation in his start two back when he was challenged early and faded badly in the stretch. Both Lookin At Lee and Rowdy the Warrior fit that E2 lung opener angle as well that has been good to us, as Lee improved his E2 in his last race by 12 over his previous race and 23 over his start two back. Rowdy improved his E2 by 18 in his last race and by 22 in any of his three races before that. Much prefer Lookin At Lee out of those two since he's already shown some quality and class having already run against the best of this year's crop so far and fared well. I'm also not sure if I've seen a horse in this year's crop who has been able to sustain a late run as long as this guy can so far. He reminds me very much of Creator in running style and how long he can sustain a run to the finish. In fact, going in I can see this race playing out almost exactly like last year's Arkansas Derby with Lee playing the role of Creator*, Rowdy playing the role of Whitmore or Suddenbreakingnews, and Uncontested playing the role of Cupid. So that's how I'm going to play it.

*Lookin At Lee has the same trainer/jockey combination as did Creator as well, and that combo has been winning at a 26% clip and finishing top two 44% of the time over the last couple of weeks.

Hey Sharkey 1U each?

 

[Sharkey]

Hey Sharkey 1U each?

Sorry Timmy. I just saw this now, but I went 2U each for the win/place on Lee and then 2U on Rowdy to show. 1U on the exacta.

 

[Sharkey]

I didn't watch the race, but hearing Lookin At Lee could only clunk up for 3rd behind One Liner and Petrov. Shitty deal.

 

[Sharkey]

Yeah, not even close to the top two at the finish;

 

[t6p]

Ah damn. Oh well, thanks for the picks anyway Shark. Always appreciated.

 

[Sharkey]

Ah damn. Oh well, thanks for the picks anyway Shark. Always appreciated.

We'll get em next time, T. Prep season has really only just started, so we'll have plenty of chances yet before the Derby.

 

[timmyclax22]

Thanks again for all the picks @Sharkey they just got out real bad from the start.

 

[kenfloshogun]

Have you seen this bit of news @kenfloshogun?

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/219939/classic-empire-out-of-fountain-of-youth

Damn, not the greatest news.

 

[Sharkey]

The 50 point prep races are set to start this weekend with the Risen Star kicking them off;

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...-town-guest-suite-set-for-risen-star-showdown

I'm not terribly high on either Mo Town or Guess Suite, and think think this could be a pretty decent opportunity to play against both of them this Saturday with a fresher face. That #3 horse Local Hero may be the most talented runner in this field actually after having watched his maiden win last time out. He got hooked up into a speed duel early in the race yet was still able to relax nicely on the backstretch before opening up on the field as they hit the stretch. He ended up winning by over 7 lengths, which was a race that took place over this Fairgrounds track. Looking over the past performances for this race I'm not sure who in this field will run with him early either. He may be the most talented runner in the field and also have the tactical advantage of being the lone speed. Not sure what kind of odds he'll go off at (4/1 ML), but he could be hard to ignore.

https://downthestretchs.com/tag/free-past-performances/

 

[Sharkey]

I'm pretty sure I'll be playing the Risen Star like so tomorrow;

- 3u on the #3 Local Hero (4/1 ML) to win
- 2u on the #2 Untrapped (10/1 ML) to win
- 0.5u on a exacta box with those two (1u total)

Local Hero looks even a little better after looking at this race more closely, although Untrapped looks like the value of the race. Both trained by Asmussen who's winning at a 33% clip the last couple of weeks. But Local Hero's last race looks a little better since he was setting a pretty hot early pace on a track that was apparently favouring the off the pace types that day. The horses who finished directly behind him (if 7+ lengths can be called "directly") were off the pace types, and what is even better is that the horse that finished 2nd that day came back to win the next time out, so there's some proof that Local Hero wasn't just beating up on scrubs in that race. The expected scratch of the #10 Takeoff also helps Local Hero's chances tomorrow, because if there was one horse that could have challenged him early it looked like Takeoff was the one. Untrapped is intriguing from a trip handicapping angle, as he looks like he may have been able to beat Guess Suite in the Lecomte if he hadn't encounter trouble and wasn't blocked in around the turn and into the stretch. Untrapped had his momentum interrupted that race a couple of times compared to the clean trip Guess Suite had and yet was still able to recover to finish a game 2nd just beaten by a length at the wire. Untrapped is the horse I'd want out of that race and this is the 2nd time he encountered trouble and was still able to recover to finish 2nd in a race. First time happened in his maiden race last fall when he had trouble at the start and was pushed way back. The one time he had a clean trip he won by over 5 lengths. I'd also expect he gets a nice stalking trip behind Local Hero in this race, and because I don't see a lot of early speed challenging here, I think towards the front is the place to be. Both of these runners should be up there. Local Hero on the lead by himself. Untrapped sitting a length or two behind him in 2nd to 4th. I expect both to be up there at the finish as well, so that's how I'll play it.

 

[Sharkey]

Risen Star results;

1st - Girvin
2nd - Untrapped
3rd - Local Hero

I'm still trying to find a video of the race to see what happened, but it looked like Untrapped finished about a length or so back at the finish based on a photo I saw and then Local Hero a couple of lengths back of him. I'm hearing Local Hero may have tried to run off a little bit in the early going, which left him a little short as they hit the stretch. Oh well. Mo Town proving once again that the whole Remsen field was a bunch of donkeys and apparently he finished up the track as the heavy favourite in this race.

 

[Sharkey]

Video of the race included in the link. Local Hero was definitely trying to run off and the jock had to get hard on the breaks. Too bad. Girvin won by about 2 lengths.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/220069/girvin-upsets-risen-star-stakes

Whether it be this race today, last week's Southwest, the Sam Davis from a couple of a couple of weeks ago, the Holy Bull, or what we've seen from Aqueduct, I don't think the Baffert pair of Mastery or American Anthem have anything to worry about as of yet from this year's crop.

 

[t6p]

Video of the race included in the link. Local Hero was definitely trying to run off and the jock had to get hard on the breaks. Too bad. Girvin won by about 2 lengths.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/220069/girvin-upsets-risen-star-stakes

Whether it be this race today, last week's Southwest, the Sam Davis from a couple of a couple of weeks ago, the Holy Bull, or what we've seen from Aqueduct, I don't think the Baffert pair of Mastery or American Anthem have anything to worry about as of yet from this year's crop.

Bad break there Shark. I wanted to tail you on this but I got tied up and couldn't get the bets in. Good thing I guess, but great capping as always. Thanks for sharing.