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Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

I'm not a big fan of Derby future wagers, but that 19/1 on American Anthem is way too hard to ignore right now. Have to do it.

There's a lot to like about him even though he's only raced twice so far. He moves very well already considering his limited experience and has a nice long stride on him. He's a big bodied type too, so with that long stride he just looks like a router who'll like to go long. His pedigree says he should like the longer races like the Derby as well since both of his damn sires, Empire Maker and AP Indy, won the Belmont back in their days. He's shown finishing ability in both his races too. He also gained a wealth of experience in those two races of his as well since he didn't have an easy time in either of them and had to race hard til the end in both. His maiden win in his first career start has also come back as a pretty strong race too with multiple stakes winners being beat by him that day. So Conflated got beat by American Anthem that day, and he came back to win his next two starts, including a lesser stakes race in the California Derby. Iliad got trounced by American Anthem that day and he also came back to win his next two races, including the G2 San Vincente a couple of weeks ago. Sheer Flattery was also in that race finishing 5th and he came back to win his next start and then just missed 2nd earlier this month in the G3 Bob Lewis. So American Anthem was beating some decent competition in his career debut. In his 2nd start American Anthem was entered in the G3 Sham and he was very impressive in battling a G1 winner in Gormley right to the wire, just losing by the thinnest of margins. What was impressive is that it looked like Gormley was going to put him away at the top of stretch, but American Anthem showed a lot of grit in coming back at him in the stretch. They decided things by a nose with the 3rd place finisher way back there 13 lengths behind those two. Very good effort by American Anthem considering it was only his 2nd career start and the fact that he was facing a horse who already showed quality in Gormley (G1 winner already).

 
Nice turn of foot shown here by So Conflated in winning the California Derby in a race that he probably had no business winning considering the lack of early pace and the fact that his jock had to wait on him to move as the horses hit the stretch.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/GG/2017/1/21/8/california-derby

So Conflated also showed similar finishing ability in his race previous to that when he came back from 7 lengths in the stretch to get his nose right there at the finish. Was placed first in that race due to the other horse blocking him off earlier in the race. So Conflated even showed good finish when 3rd to American Anthem in that maiden race I talked about above. Both of those horses looked to be moving comparatively coming for home.

It looks like So Conflated will be in the Gotham this Saturday against El Areeb, and he might be the guy to pull the upset depending on who else shows up. We'll see. As of right now I'm much more interested in betting against Irish War Cry in the Fountain Of Youth this Saturday if the probables listed for that race all show up. Irish War Cry was somehow made 2nd choice in the Derby future pool from this weekend and I don't see that at all. He might end up going off as the odds-on favorite this weekend, which should mean a good price on the others. Especially Gunnevera who ran 2nd to him in the Holy Bull. I'd strongly doubt Irish War Cry gets an easy lead over soft fractions this time around and the chances that Gunnevera gets blocked and has to brake again on the turn (1:15 mark of following video) is minimal as well. The way Irish War Cry was vearing in and out, in and out during the stretch after having an easy lead over soft fractions makes me question if he has distance limitations too. His pedigree says he's more of a middle distance miler type as well even though he was sired by Curlin. The female side of his pedigree is more speed/sprint orientated. While it wasn't nearly as evident as his race before, there's still a lot of useless movement in the way Irish War Cry ran the Holy Bull, which is only going to hurt him under pressure situations (distance races or pressure from other horses) in the future. But that could be worked out of him since these guys are so young and inexperienced still. he has some work to do compared to the other leading runners on the Derby trail, though, since he runs more immature than most. He runs way more immature than horses like Mastery, American Anthem, McCraken or even Gunnevera so far.

 
It only took about four months, but finally;

 
anybody having a bet on the Dubai Super Saturday this weekend? Big Card with plenty of quality races
 
gcoogan1 said:
anybody having a bet on the Dubai Super Saturday this weekend? Big Card with plenty of quality races
Click to expand...

I hadn't planned on it, G, but if you have a play or two please do share.
 
Shit, he has a longer reach in his stride when simply galloping than a lot of these so-called "Derby contenders" have when they're all out.
 
Compare American Anthem's stride at the line to Irish War Cry's stride here, which is only average at best;

 
Sharkey have you ever done a write up on how you bet with horse racing.

Like unit types or something.

Not sure how I should adjust my betting if I wish to have a bet on trifectas etc.

Also. Have you heard of Winx? Killer horse down under won 15 straight.

Paid $1.15-20 last 2 races but that hasn't stopped people dropping 50k on it.
 
Mga223 said:
Sharkey have you ever done a write up on how you bet with horse racing.

Like unit types or something.

Not sure how I should adjust my betting if I wish to have a bet on trifectas etc.

Also. Have you heard of Winx? Killer horse down under won 15 straight.

Paid $1.15-20 last 2 races but that hasn't stopped people dropping 50k on it.
Click to expand...

Well, I've listed units bet for a few of my plays, M, but I haven't really gone into depth. Everything varies from race to race, though, depending on the budget I allow myself for that weekend, the confidence level I have with a pick(s), as well as the odds I'm given to play with. I don't really have a set rule, but go with more with how I'm feeling and seeing the races. Basically your bets should represent the strength of your opinion as best they can under the budget you're using. I don't often play too many trifectas just because they are such a crapshoot most of the time. For most races pretty much any of the horses in the field can run 3rd given the right circumstances. Not always. But often enough. I really only try for the trifectas (or supers) when there's a large field, which means it's more of a lottery ticket than anything (thus play it with just a small portion of my budget). Like in the Derby or something. Using the 'All' button for trifectas tends to be a what most who bet trifectas with regularity do, though. They'll usually focus on two horses that they have a strong opinion about and then uses all others. e.g. Both Arrogate and Hoppertunity are slated to run in the Dubai World Cup next month, and considering those horses history a trifecta structured like so; Arrogate/All/Hoppertunity would have a pretty good chance of hitting and you'd then have to hope a big longshot runs 2nd to maximize that payoff.

And yeah, I've heard of Winx. A couple of people I follow on twitter were talking about her last fall around Breeders Cup time. I don't know much about her as I've never watched her race or anything. But I've seen one or two people call her the best race horse in the world since that time. I don't know enough to say that myself, but her record is obviously amazing. Best horse down there since the sensational Black Caviar maybe?
 
Sharkey said:
Well, I've listed units bet for a few of my plays, M, but I haven't really gone into depth. Everything varies from race to race, though, depending on the budget I allow myself for that weekend, the confidence level I have with a pick(s), as well as the odds I'm given to play with. I don't really have a set rule, but go with more with how I'm feeling and seeing the races. Basically your bets should represent the strength of your opinion as best they can under the budget you're using. I don't often play too many trifectas just because they are such a crapshoot most of the time. For most races pretty much any of the horses in the field can run 3rd given the right circumstances. Not always. But often enough. I really only try for the trifectas (or supers) when there's a large field, which means it's more of a lottery ticket than anything (thus play it with just a small portion of my budget). Like in the Derby or something. Using the 'All' button for trifectas tends to be a what most who bet trifectas with regularity do, though. They'll usually focus on two horses that they have a strong opinion about and then uses all others. e.g. Both Arrogate and Hoppertunity are slated to run in the Dubai World Cup next month, and considering those horses history a trifecta structured like so; Arrogate/All/Hoppertunity would have a pretty good chance of hitting and you'd then have to hope a big longshot runs 2nd to maximize that payoff.

And yeah, I've heard of Winx. A couple of people I follow on twitter were talking about her last fall around Breeders Cup time. I don't know much about her as I've never watched her race or anything. But I've seen one or two people call her the best race horse in the world since that time. I don't know enough to say that myself, but her record is obviously amazing. Best horse down there since the sensational Black Caviar maybe?
Click to expand...
Legend! Thanks for the write up, I just bet so strange with horses as I don't consider myself decent picker... I go only really strange runs. I'm real hot one day and don't take advantage or in ice cold and I could back a $1.10 fav that will run last.

Mate in my opinion Winx has surpassed BC, yea I know undefeated and all that but Winx lately is just unbelievable... it absolute tore black heart Bart to shreds a few races ago.

Last 2 races it left hartnell for dead, clear second but bowman didn't even whip Winx and it won by 5 lengths.

Amazing horse mate, honestly one of the best I've ever witnessed.

http://wwos.nine.com.au/2017/02/25/16/55/winx-wins-chipping-norton-stakes

Has the race if it works for you.

You can always YouTube him and watch his cox plate win and Caulfield stakes win from 2016.

The bookies don't know what to do with him, no one backs the outsiders, Winx is costing them money even at such low odds.
 
Mga223 said:
Legend! Thanks for the write up, I just bet so strange with horses as I don't consider myself decent picker... I go only really strange runs. I'm real hot one day and don't take advantage or in ice cold and I could back a $1.10 fav that will run last.

Mate in my opinion Winx has surpassed BC, yea I know undefeated and all that but Winx lately is just unbelievable... it absolute tore black heart Bart to shreds a few races ago.

Last 2 races it left hartnell for dead, clear second but bowman didn't even whip Winx and it won by 5 lengths.

Amazing horse mate, honestly one of the best I've ever witnessed.

http://wwos.nine.com.au/2017/02/25/16/55/winx-wins-chipping-norton-stakes

Has the race if it works for you.

You can always YouTube him and watch his cox plate win and Caulfield stakes win from 2016.

The bookies don't know what to do with him, no one backs the outsiders, Winx is costing them money even at such low odds.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I definitely hear you on those hot and cold streaks, bud. Anybody who plays the races go through periods like that where they either can't miss anything or can't hit anything. That's normal. I find that it's best not to change things up too much when you go through a cold streak, though, and tend to look at races the same way every time. Meaning I'll follow the same blueprint for each race. Of course, we're all going to be learning new things along thew way too, as even the most experienced handicappers are still learning new things about the game even if they have 50 years experience playing the ponies. But I usually follow the same general blueprint for each race like so;

- try to judge the shape of the race, how it's going to be ran and what style the shape of the race should benefit
- eliminate losers based on their talent and how that horse plays into the shape of the race
- from there I'll start to take a close look at the favourite to see how beatable he/she is and if the race is worth playing
- if I find that the favourite may be either overbet or vulnerable I'll start looking at the alternative horses who have a chance to win (based on ability and race shape), and then get into the nitty gritty of the handicapping process by looking at some angles I like, some videos and things like that

That's basically the process I go through for every race. Look at race shape, eliminate losers, judge the favourite on it's own merit, and then start the real handicapping. Sometimes that process is successful. Sometimes it isn't. But it's worked for me often enough in the past that, even when I'm running cold, I don't feel the need to change things up too much.

If Winx is better than Black Caviar then that is saying something because I followed Black Caviar for much of her streak a few years back and she was amazing. She didn't always look amazing in her wins, but that's all she did was win. I just watched Winx's two races from this month, and yeah, she's really, really good. She looks both really fast and quite versatile in running style just based on what little I've seen.
 
Gunnevera must be rubbing his two front hooves together when he sees the list of probables for the Fountain of Youth this weekend, and sees names like Takaful, Three Rules, Irish War Cry, Beasely, and Lookin For Eight as possible entries considering all of those horses like to run on or near the lead in the early going of their races.
 
Irish War Cry had to take 55 individual strides to cover the distance between the opening quarter pole and the half mile pole in the Holy Bull, and did so in a time of 23.78 for that quarter. Conversely Gunnevera only had to take 51 strides to cover that same distance of ground between those two quarters in the same race. You tell me who'd be better suited for a faster paced race or, in the future, as the distances get longer.

For comparison, Amercian Anthem only needed 47 individual strides between the opening quarter and half mile poles in the Sham and he covered that amount of ground in 22.92 seconds. Gormley, who was just outisde of him the whole way, needed to take 51 strides himself to cover that distance at that pace.

Yep. That's my bored statistical analysis of the day. But it clearly shows the difference in length of stride between those runners.
 
More bore for you guys. I went back and checked the stride rate of the last five Derby winners over that same quarter and this is what I found from them in their preps for the Derby; Nyquist - 51, American Pharoah - 48, California Chrome - 49, Orb - 50, and I'll Have Another - 50. I also checked on Arrogate since he's pretty much the benchmark in recent years for the length of his stride and he sits at 45-46 strides for his races for that quarter.
 
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