Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Danzing Candy had a stride rate of 53 for that quarter mile in winning the San Felipe last year at 8.5F. He was the immature short who was able to win that race after having an easy lead throughout.

Cupid had a stride rate of 54 when he won the Rebel Stakes last year at 8.5F. He was also an immature sort who himself was able to win the Rebel after having an easy lead through much of the race.

Each of those two races vaulted those two to be considered amongst the leading Derby contenders at that point in the year (Steve Haskin had both top 6 at that time, AP rankings had both top 4, and the final future's pool last year had them as the 3rd and 6th choices). Yet when their immaturity showed in their next race and they weren't able to sit on an easy lead in their next race at 9F both of those horses got trounced by double digit lengths in each one's case. Cupid was taken off the Derby trail and Danzing Candy finished up the track in 15th in the Derby.

Can anybody name any horse similar to that in this year's crop? An immature sort with not a whole lot of length in his stride, yet was able to win his last 8.5F race in front running style after inheriting an easy lead? I think I may know one such sort.

This son of a bitch is going to make me look the fool this weekend isn't he?

 

[Sharkey]

Gunnevera must be rubbing his two front hooves together when he sees the list of probables for the Fountain of Youth this weekend, and sees names like Takaful, Three Rules, Irish War Cry, Beasely, and Lookin For Eight as possible entries considering all of those horses like to run on or near the lead in the early going of their races.

- Beasely's PP's for his 3 races so far say that he likes to sit 2nd in the early running just outside the leader. His 4F workout from a few days ago was the fastest of 38 workouts that day at that 4F distance.

- Takaful has been on the lead in the early running in all of his 3 races so far. He's going to be going into the Fountain of Youth after having ran a sub 1:00 time in his workout on the 25th, which, like it was with Beasely, was the fastest workout of 17 on the day at that distance.

- Three Rules has ran on or near the lead in all but one of his 7 career starts so far. His last workout on the 24th was at 5F and he did it in some 0:59 seconds, which again, was the fastest workout of 15 on the day at that distance.

Irish War Cry and Lookin For Eight appear to be training to come from off the pace a little bit, but we'll see how that goes once the race starts. Irish War Cry for one fought his jockey hard the race before last when he tried to settle him in the early running. But with Beasely, Takaful, and Three Rules what we have is three confirmed front running types that, based on the fact that they're firing bullets in their last workouts, are being trained to display their speed in the race if they enter. Gunnevera really only needs two of those three there. Or even one of the three if that one happens to be either Takaful or Three Rules. Giddy up!

 

[Sharkey]

I just wanted to point something out that took place in the Holy Bull if I may. I know I've talked about that E2 lung opener angle a few times on here, but I think I may have mentioned the "middle move" angle once or twice as well. Very similar in concept and sometimes they are the same thing. Each basically say that a horse making a move mid race sets a horse up well for his next race as far as it's conditioning goes. But take note of the distance between Irish War Cry and Gunnevera as they hit the pole at the 0:37-0:38 mark of the video. After that take note of the distance between those two horses at the 1:01-1:02 mark of the video. Gunnevera made up about two lengths on Irish War Cry through that portion of the race. i.e. He made a "middle move". What adds to the significance is that Gunnevera made up that ground on Irish War Cry in what was the fastest ran portion of the race, and he did so coming off a 2.5 month layoff. All good signs for Gunnevera's next race.

 

[t6p]

I'm not a big fan of Derby future wagers, but that 19/1 on American Anthem is way too hard to ignore right now. Have to do it.

There's a lot to like about him even though he's only raced twice so far. He moves very well already considering his limited experience and has a nice long stride on him. He's a big bodied type too, so with that long stride he just looks like a router who'll like to go long. His pedigree says he should like the longer races like the Derby as well since both of his damn sires, Empire Maker and AP Indy, won the Belmont back in their days. He's shown finishing ability in both his races too. He also gained a wealth of experience in those two races of his as well since he didn't have an easy time in either of them and had to race hard til the end in both. His maiden win in his first career start has also come back as a pretty strong race too with multiple stakes winners being beat by him that day. So Conflated got beat by American Anthem that day, and he came back to win his next two starts, including a lesser stakes race in the California Derby. Iliad got trounced by American Anthem that day and he also came back to win his next two races, including the G2 San Vincente a couple of weeks ago. Sheer Flattery was also in that race finishing 5th and he came back to win his next start and then just missed 2nd earlier this month in the G3 Bob Lewis. So American Anthem was beating some decent competition in his career debut. In his 2nd start American Anthem was entered in the G3 Sham and he was very impressive in battling a G1 winner in Gormley right to the wire, just losing by the thinnest of margins. What was impressive is that it looked like Gormley was going to put him away at the top of stretch, but American Anthem showed a lot of grit in coming back at him in the stretch. They decided things by a nose with the 3rd place finisher way back there 13 lengths behind those two. Very good effort by American Anthem considering it was only his 2nd career start and the fact that he was facing a horse who already showed quality in Gormley (G1 winner already).

Hey Shark, where can I bet futures for the Derby?

 

[gcoogan1]

I hadn't planned on it, G, but if you have a play or two please do share.

Will do, just waiting on the odds to come out, will post friday any plays i have

 

[Sharkey]

Hey Shark, where can I bet futures for the Derby?

Well, that particular pool has closed now, T, so I'm not sure if there's any online sites that offer up odds. Some might, though. The last futures pool will open on the last weekend in March if you want to get in on it then. Your local OTB will offer them up at that time.

 

[t6p]

Well, that particular pool has closed now, T, so I'm not sure if there's any online sites that offer up odds. Some might, though. The last futures pool will open on the last weekend in March if you want to get in on it then. Your local OTB will offer them up at that time.

Ahh ok, thanks. I know 5dimes usually puts them up closer to the big races so I'll wait on that. Unfortunately all the convenient OTB locations in my area have closed.

 

[Sharkey]

Ahh ok, thanks. I know 5dimes usually puts them up closer to the big races so I'll wait on that. Unfortunately all the convenient OTB locations in my area have closed.

If all else fails I know that twinspires.com will offer up the opportunity to bet those futures online when the time comes. I've never used that site myself, so I can't vouch for it in any way. They are "official partners" when it comes to the Derby though.

 

[Hodge23]

Hey guys back on here after a short break over winter.

Had a great time on the horses last year, was up huge until the end of the year where I lost a chunk of that after having a disaster on arc weekend and then at the breeders cup meeting. Maybe I should just stick to UK racing but I like the different styles that the US, France, Dubai etc. offer.

Good to read your analysis @Sharkey on all things Kentucky Derby and I have had a bit on American Anthem @ 20/1, will keep a close eye on this thread in the run up to that.

Meydan Super Saturday should be fun to watch but doesn’t seem to be many betting opportunities from first glance. Ive been following the carnival since it started in January and I think I have a decent handle on some of the main players for Dubai world cup night. Best horse on show on Saturday is certainly Postponed but his odds are 4/11 so no bet there, though ive backed him for the Sheema Classic at 2/1 so hope he puts in a good performance. He bolted up in that last year beating Japanese superstar Duramente, with Highland Reel back in 3rd. Also Lani is back here after running in all of the US Triple Crown races, it will be interesting to see how he gets on here.

@gcoogan1, we have some early odds out over here for Saturday so if if theres any horses/races you're interested in i can post them here if you like

Good Stuff

 

[Sharkey]

Post position draw and morning line odds for the Fountain of Youth;

1. Huracan Americo - 50/1
2. Gunnevera - 7/2
3. Quinientos - 50/1
4. Talk Logistics - 20/1
5. Beasely - 6/1
6. Practical Joke - 3/1
7. Three Rules - 12/1
8. Irish War Cry - 5/2
9. Made You Look - 10/1
10. Takaful - 12/1
11. Lookin For Eight - 20/1

I absolutely love, love, LOVE that draw if I'm looking to back Gunnevera (or for those backing Practical Joke). Four of the five runners that have shown early speed in their races drew in to the outside half of the field, with the two expected to duel for the lead (Three Rules and Takaful) drawing right there towards the outside surrounding Irish War Cry. That could do nothing but increase the chances of him getting triggered to try to run with those two even if the jock is trying to settle him. It's what happened in his race previously to the Holy Bull. He drew the post just outside the early speed horse to his inside, and when they opened the gates he was tossing his head and pulling the rider trying to keep up with the speed horse even though the jock was trying to settle him to stalk it. He was having none of that, though, and went to the lead regardless of what the jock wanted.

 

[Sharkey]

PP's for that race as well as the Gotham which was also drawn earlier today. Not sure what the morning line odds are for the Gotham are yet, although I did see El Areeb was listed at 6/5 and So Conflated was 8/1. El Areeb looks very tough here against this weak bunch, but 8/1 on So Conflated is definitely playable to me. I was worried he'd be down in the 3/1 or 4/1 range, which he still may be. But if he stays in that 8/1 range I could back him in this spot I think.

https://downthestretchs.com/

 

[Sharkey]

The Pletcher horse that drew the outside post in the Gotham (Action Everyday 10/1 ML) intrigued me a little just looking over the PP's for that race seeing as how he looks like he could be the early speed in a race that looks to be lacking any. Then I watched his last race at a mile... The poor guy almost fell over due to fatigue as he was coming up to the finish line. I'll pass thank you.

 

[Sharkey]

This Gotham field isn't just weak. It's friggin laughable. The 2nd choice on the morning line is a horse with 1 career start to his name. The 3rd choice on the morning line is a horse that has been beaten by over 15 length combined the last two times facing El Areeb. The co-4th choice is a horse that was beaten by 5 the last time he faced El Areeb, and his race previously to that got dusted by 10 lengths against Gunnevera. The other co-4th choice is So Conflated and he might actually be okay. Even the heavy favourite, El Areeb, is just okay himself, and not a horse I'd be taking all that seriously if he was prepping elsewhere around the country. Looks like a two horse race to me involving two horses that have plenty of work to do before I'd consider them amongst the serious Derby contenders. What an awful field. Just awful. A clown show all around.

 

[Sharkey]

Suddenly 4/1 on So Conflated doesn't look so bad after all.

 

[Sharkey]

Do you guys think this stride rate could be a useful tool as we head into the major prep races and then on to the Derby? I mean, I've always looked at how a horse strides and tended to make a visual judgement based, for the most part, on the frequency of a horse's up-and-down head rhythm. But maybe putting a numerical value to that stuff could give us an edge against others? It's probably best to measure it during different portions of a race too. Near the beginning of a race when the fastest running takes place and then again at the end of the race. That should tell us quite clearly who can come closest to maintaining their stride rate/length at the end of races and which horses are getting more tired thus shortening their stride late. Some races it may be tough to tell the rate of horses in the early running just based on camera angles. But late race should be no issue at all. The shape of the race(s) would also have to be factored as well. A race ran slow early, fast late obviously can't be treated the same as a race that was ran fast early, slow late and things like that.

 

[Sharkey]

El Areeb needed 53 individual strides to cover the 2nd quarter distance in his last race. Because that race fit the slow early, fast late profile, he was able to maintain that length in his stride over the final furlong covering that distance in 26.5 strides. So Conflated needed 54 strides to cover the 2nd quarter in his last race. That was also a slow early fast late race, and thus he was able to lengthen his stride a little over the final furlong which took him just 26 strides. Both of their last races were at the same 8.5F distance and both races were ran in almost the exact same time (1:44.47 for El Areeb, and 1:44.71 for So Conflated), although with completely different BSF handed out for each.

I already indicated Irish War Cry and Gunnevera's stride count in that early quarter of the Holy Bull, but that was also another race that fits more into the slow early, fast late profile although not quite to the extent of those above two. It was ran about 2 seconds faster that El Areeb's Withers, but using the BSF for those two races as an indicator it was more like a 0.5 second faster when factoring surfaces. For the final furlong I had Gunnevera covering that distance in 26 strides and Irish War Cry covering it in 28.5 strides. Gunnevera basically maintained his stride rate he had during the early running whereas Irish War Cry shortened up a little more on his already shortish stride.

 

[Sharkey]

"Curlin may help balance out liabilities on the bottom half of Irish War Cry’s pedigree. His first two dams, Irish Sovereign and Irish Genius, never won beyond six furlongs; the colt is the first of Irish Sovereign’s foals to win beyond 1 1/16 miles. Half-brother Irish Strait, a Grade 3-placed winner at 1 1/16 miles, is by English Channel, who, like Curlin, is a son of the late classic sire Smart Strike.

Irish War Cry is the only graded stakes winner under his first three dams, but farther back, the family has roots in the European classics. Extended family members include Epsom Derby winner and champion Psidium and French 2000 Guineas winner Thymus."

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-pedigree-analysis-irish-war-cry


I've heard people say this guy runs like his daddy. Sorry. This guy ain't no Curlin, who needed only 26.5 strides over the final furlong to win the Preakness, 27 strides over the final furlong to win the Classic, and 27.5 strides over the final furlong of the 12F Belmont when getting nosed out. That's quite a bit different than the 28.5 strides it took over the final furlong of a 8.5F race after getting an easy lead over soft fractions.

Yeah, this guy is going to crush me in a few days isn't he?. I just know it. He'll win by 8 or something crazy like that just to spite me. With some improvement and more maturity between his last race and this he could do it too under the right circumstances. He's already fast and has talent. He proved that already in his other races. And he's also proved he could beat Gunnevera with the right race setup. I just see lots of reasons to bet against it happening again, though.

 

[Sharkey]

Holy shit, I've been the babbling fool the last couple of days. Sorry guys. Can you tell I'm starting to get excited? I always do around this time each year. Maybe even moreso this year since last year's prep season was so good to me from a wagering standpoint. Or maybe not. I'm probably like this every year.

 

[Sharkey]

Looking at Royal Mo's win in the Bob Lewis he showed a nice long stride in the early portion of the range with stride counts of 24.5 and 25, but then had to shorten his stride up quite a bit over the final furlong which took him 27 strides. That would be concerning since the early portion of the race wasn't particularly fast (pretty average pace wise). Although the Sham was a half a furlong shorter over the same track, it was ran much, much faster pace throughout than the Bob Lewis with American Anthem taking 24 strides per his early furlongs, and then finishing the last furlong in 26 strides. Both of these big long striding horses with a similar running style are pointed towards the Rebel Stakes in a couple of weeks. But this little peace of analysis may say that the former horse is about to get ran into the ground if both of them do enter. Maybe.

 

[t6p]

Holy shit, I've been the babbling fool the last couple of days. Sorry guys. Can you tell I'm starting to get excited? I always do around this time each year. Maybe even moreso this year since last year's prep season was so good to me from a wagering standpoint. Or maybe not. I'm probably like this every year.

Keep it coming, Shark. I learn a ton from reading your posts. The wealth of knowledge in this thread is pretty amazing and I'm sure there are others who agree with me.