I think if he wins the Stipe fight and retires the wealth of his accomplishments will outshine not having fought Aspinall at the last turn, particularly if he has a good showing. The majority of fans will give him a pass, UFC mediatic spectacle will do so, and there will be a conciliatory narrative about how Jones had hurdles but in the end was the GOAT. You forget that while Jon has many haters and detractors (myself included) he is also one of the most popular fighters, and many fighters, analysts, and fans consider him the undisputed GOAT already, regardless of what happens with Stipe. I think if he beats Stipe and retires that subset of the fanbase and MMA world will outspeak the detractor end.
I don't think the retirement talk is a tactic; 36yo is not a terrible age to retire since one is likely already in decline, and Jon is coming off an injury. It's not as if Stipe or DC looked great into their 40s. And frankly Jones hasn't looked particularly good in the majority of his last outtings: Smith, Santos, Reyes... Gane was a short fight, but the three prior to that were very mediocre performances, two of which were toss-up decisions. He is clearly past his prime, is coming from injury, competing at a higher weight class and won't be going back to LHW, and is older.
Concerning the future of Aspinall, I am making a point about longer term perception. If Aspinall loses his next two fights and never gets the title again, people will retrospectively say he never was that good, and that people who thought he could be the next 'big thing' were wrong. He will be forgotten in that narrative. That's the way of the sport. And that will affect how people perceive Jon's decision. Yes, he is likely be the next undisputed champ, but we don't know this to a certainty, and even then we don't know if he would manage to defend his title once or twice. So, I understand Jon for thinking this is a fight that is too risky for too little in return. Aspinall is simply not a household name, doesn't have the titles, or cemented value for Jon at this juncture.
Would I prefer to see it? Sure. Would it be objectively more meaningful than Stipe? Sure. But the wider fanbase does not concur, and the fact remains Stipe will make bigger numbers, is an easier fight and more consolidated name. More money, easier fight, more historical prestige (at least to the eyes of most).
I would normally think this is BS but since it is Jon's retirement fight, I'm fine with it. I don't think this will affect how I rank Jones at all, however.
So you think the uninformed will inform the future masses instead of the actual informed? I know people will think he is the GOAT, that is not the point. People can think he is the GOAT and still think he ducked Tom. Because it's just too blatant of a duck for people to ignore, especially fighters will recognize this whether they think he is the GOAt or not.
Also the narrative around a Stipe win will just be that he beat a husk of Stipe's fomer-self and not Aspinall. It will be the talk leading up to it and it will be the talk after it, like it is the talk now. It will all be documented and it will all be available for future fans to look up. it might not be the way the UFC sells it, but I actually would bet my money on it that Joe or Anik would at least mention something about the different narratives coming into the fight, during the broadcast, or just mention Aspinall's interim status. It's a baked-in part of the story.
Bruh.... I know what you are saying with the hypothetical. I'm saying it is ridiculus and weak reason to base a decision on. The what ifs can be applied to anything. What if a meteor falls down on me in five minutes, might as well kill myself right now...
And even if it would happen, they would still tell the story with how amazing Tom looked in his ascension, not focus on what happened after Jon. And even if they would talk about what happened after, they would just say Jon took his soul, crediting Jon. Jon had no problem taking on Reyes, OSP, Smith, Santos, etc. without them having a big name. Tom is likely to be a bigger name than any of them, the way it looks right now. And the right now is when he would take the fight, he isn't taking the fight in some hypothethical future where Tom has lost a bunch. so it's just a contrived and thinly veiled excuse to hide the fact he is ducking the harder and more deserving challenge. And that is how the story will be told by many, some will probably tell it in a way that reflects positively on Jon, but the facts are on the side of the ones using the duck narrative. So i don't know why you think the ones who will try to make Jon look good will have the last laugh, unless you think they will actually try to cover up all the details surrounding the story. However, I think that will be highly unlikely to happen.
I don't think it has been as much of a decline as it has been stylistically tougher match ups. Younger, bigger/taller dudes that were relatively unpredictable. That's also why he is ducking Aspinall. That's the way it will be told and that's the way I will tell it till the day I die, and I'm sure I'm not the only one. Unless, you know, he were to change his mind and accept the fight with Aspinall. Also, the whole ducking Ngannou narrative will not be forgotten either, especially if Ngannou would K Joshua TFO! That would just lend more credibility to it, in the eyes of the casual, and bring more attention to it.
Also, I think Stipe isn't even that known with the absolute casual. It doesn't even have that much prestige. It will all hang on the fact that he was the longest reigning champ ages ago, and you have to willfullly ignore all the other circumstances to buy into that narrative. Those circumstances won't be forgotten. There is no reason to.
