Jones possible path to victory

[Contempt]

a few "unintentional" eye pokes with oblique kicks should do the trick

Poke him in the eyes with oblique kicks? He'd have to miss pretty badly...

 

[CasualBot]

I did mention this briefly, but the primary point of the post was highlighting the opportunities Jones may have identified via film study.

just playin' around cuz we got $100 each on the number of pokes.

jones coaching and experiences listening to coaching,
should EASILY win him this fight.

the big issue is 3 years & the timing of the return.
it's too convenient.

Nick Diaz felt the same way. Love Nick. Legend.
That rematch against Robbie was un-necessary.
He beat Robbie so long ago. He has been inactive.
Robbie went on to win a WW title.
Showing us, that Diaz could've also pulled that off.
By the time he returned, none of it made sense.
Diaz vs Lawler 2 for the belt, made sense.
Outside of that,
Diaz was a washed up has-been to most fans.
Started strong, clearly fought with an injury.

Dwight is giving some of those vibes,
that the money ran out and Francis is gone.

Nick's coach admitted he fought just to afford surgery.
Would not surprise us... if Jones starts strong, and fades.
This is where the eye pokes will factor into things.

Now, Gane...
made it further than Stipe & Cain (against Francis),
while still being essentially dominated by him.
Similar to the Stipe plan.
Except Francis outsmarted both guys.
From this observation, Gane lacks better coaching.
Great fighter none the less. Hoping he KO's dwight in round 1.

 

[VAfan]

i don't think he has one, actually. can't outstrike him and probably won't be able to take him down. doesn't have one punch KO power so no real puncher's chance there. isn't going to win a decision by dancing around. no exaggeration, i really don't see how he takes it.

 

[Ares Black]

Wall and Stall
Lay and Pray
Egregious Fouls



That's about it

 

[Contempt]

View attachment 971778
View attachment 971779
Everything on Gane is bigger and more muscular except his waste line. Jon will have to put so much effort into moving all this weight and the resistance from all those muscles and has to carry his weight also. This doesn’t look good at all and on top of that he will risk his neck getting caught or elbows or knees. I honestly don’t see a path for Jon to win except for eye gouging Gane. Please think about it before answering.

Any "true fan" would know that this is NOT a fucking body building competition and if you don't see a path for the man who has never done anything but win before to win, you may be an idiot.

 

[RespectTheWarriors]

An ugly looking haymaker or maybe somehow snatching his neck.

 

[Ares Black]

Now, Gane...
made it further than Stipe & Cain (against Francis),
while still being essentially dominated by him.

Except that Gane arguably won that fight.

 

[TankAbbott4Eva]

Stay away, oblique kicks, circle out, wear him down, a TD late and ground and pound to finish.

 

[Travis Alexander]

I mean, if Jon hasn't figured out how he might get a takedown, he's doomed. Doesn't mean he can actually do it with regularity. Gane does know this is coming and he and his team are not stupid. If Jon can L&P Cyril for 5 rounds then good for him, I guess, but the fight's gonna suck.

When has Jones ever been a lay and pray fighter. The term “hellbows” was coined after his vicious GnP.
If jones gets Gane down with any regularity then Cyril is fucked.

 

[Karl_Hungus]

Jones has an easier task than Gane. All Jon has to do is control the fight with his wrestling and avoid power strikes from Gane, as well as gassing. Gane has to bounce around on the outside and avoid eye pokes and kicks to his kneecap, along with takedowns for five rounds. From what I have seen from MMA, this makes Jon the favorite, despite his long layoff and love for coke and hoors.

 

[vivi]

Jon is going to bring that crackhead energy

 

[Karl_Hungus]

When has Jones ever been a lay and pray fighter. The term “hellbows” was coined after his vicious GnP.
If jones gets Gane down with any regularity then Cyril is fucked.

The question is whether Jon still has that explosiveness, or is he content to control position and conserve his energy for fear of gassing with his new weight? Also, he was already slowing down at LHW, and not throwing as many explosive strikes at all. Will that explosiveness return with increased mass? You might know better than I, but I don't think so. I do believe that Jon will win, but mostly in a slow and grinding way that many would label LNP.

 

[jimmy dakine]

I like to analyze fights and I have had a hard time up until recently trying to envision a path 35 year old Jon realistically would have to victory over a younger, much more agile, naturally larger opponent in his prime.

I also doubt that Jon would take a fight where he himself did not see a clear path to victory. His ego is too big and his attachment to his legacy is too important to him. This is not to say Jon will not lose. I fully belive Jon could do everything right and still lose tonight, but upon watching some videos I think I have identified what Jon believes could be his path to victory.

TLDR: Film study

In the 1st video below, I saw the first clue of how Jon could possibly win this fight. At the 1min mark he talks about Cyril having tells and patterns. Even in the small amount of film I have watched on Cyril this week, I have noticed them so I can only imagine how an experienced fighter or team could identify these tells and prepare for then.
(More on this below)






Go to 15:00

(How do I timestamp?
Is it T=15m00s at the end?)

In the Tuivasa fight, the Derrick Lewis fight and the Volkov fight, you see Gane using the same tell.

He looks down, then throws a power strike high. Usually from southpaw position.

So how can Jon use this information?

Right off the bat, it is easy to identify because Gane uses it in a specific range and scenario. It is usually a secondary attack and done AFTER he has executed his initial attack to close distance. He seems to do it more in southpaw stance and there.is even a consistent cadence to the timing. Initial entry move, beat, reset feet, look down, attack high with POWER.

the POWER means extra time and the whole sequence means you can have the timing ready, like striking Bald Bull after his 3rd bounce, there is a specific window of opportunity.

Jon could:

evade
block
counter
wrestle <---

Jon is not fast enough to counter on the strike, which Prime Conor McGregor did masterfully vs Aldo and Alvarez.

Block and Evade are options, and could be useful the first time or of Jon wants to play it safe.

but the gamechanger is to use this to take Gane down. That is were Jon has a sìgnificant advantage, if he can get it to the ground, which wont be easy, but would be worthwhile if he can pull it off.

i think most would agree that a pure kickboxing match heavily favors Gane.

so Jon needs to:

get Gane down
Use clinch/wrestling to get Gane tired
Use clinch/wrestling to create striking openings and make Gane hesitant.

------------------------------
Remember Jon has said he doesn't take short notice fights. Why? Because he needs to complete his film study and confidently know his opponents tendencies and have a gameplan for how to capitalize on these tendencies.

Remember that Jon Jones had identified the DC was susceptible to the left high kick from southpaw stance years before he used that technique to finish the fight and they even talked about it in a press conference before their first fight?

That was from film study and even with DC KNOWING to expect it, Jon still executed a plan to make that work and capitalize on that tendency.
-----------------------------

Jon's opponents all say "it is a different ballgame being in there with him"

They all think they know what to expect based on film of Jon fighting other people and get caught off guard with what Jon (and likely previously someone at Jackson Wink) where able to identify and prepare specifically to use against them.
------------


I did not do an in depth film study on Jon or Cyril Gane. But just from what I saw in breakdown videos and listening to the fighters talk, I see patterns in Cyrils game which Jon openly stated he has identified.

He uses certain strikes at certain ranges depending on his stance. He uses the same footwork patterns to change angles or adjust for inside foot position.

I did not see how Jon could beat Gane in a fair fight, and he still may lose and he is not necessarily going to fight a fair fight, but I now am open to Jon having a legit path to victory by knowing and predicting Ganes actions to a reasonably high degree of certainty based on past tendencies.
-----------

It is still a big mountain to climb.

Ganes footwork is a real problem for Jon's primary tendencies to use range finding tactics to execute strikes from distance. Jon may need to compromise Ganes legs or his cardio to have success.

Gane could be playing chess too and may be expecting these things and be prepared. I fully expect his team knows the gravity of this bout.

That's my $0.02 fellas and sher ladies.
Thanks for stopping by.

May the best man win in violent, conclusive, highlight reel fashion.

If I were coaching Jones, the strategy would be to get Gane on the ground and GNP till TKO.....Jones can just watch GSP film and see how he set up the takedowns that enabled him to be the boringest fighter in history to be considered a GOAT. Three punch combinations followed by a takedown and due to superior ground game, Jones wins easy by GNP....But will Bones do this? It remains to be seen.

 

[Travis Alexander]

The question is whether Jon still has that explosiveness, or is he content to control position and conserve his energy for fear of gassing with his new weight? Also, he was already slowing down at LHW, and not throwing as many explosive strikes at all. Will that explosiveness return with increased mass? You might know better than I, but I don't think so. I do believe that Jon will win, but mostly in a slow and grinding way that many would label LNP.

Honestly I don’t know, nobody really does other than Jon and his team. The reality is every athlete is different. I hope he has a resurgence at this new weight it is a logical move given his increased age. I look at things like the fact that he signed an 8 fight deal as indication that he plans on being active and successful at HW. I know Jon in one of the highest fight iQ athletes of all time. He is calculated and like TS said he wouldn’t make his debut at HW against a killer like Gane unless he sees multiple feasible paths to victory. I hope jones wins especially for what it would mean to the division in Ngannou’s absence (who I would favor over Jon). I would never bet on this fight considering the multitude of unknowns but I am excitingly waiting for tonight’s showdown with bated breath and anticipation!

 

[MaulingMyClown]

Nice breakdown, but I don't think it's that difficult. Jon is probably one of the best ever at using his reach and range. If he can do that against Ciryl, tie up against the cage and take it to the ground a few times I don't see how Jon doesn't stop the fight early to be honest. Everyone bringing up the fact that he's 35, I'm pretty sure Gane isn't far behind at 32 or 33?

 

[Wonderfight]

Jones path to the victory is ti be smart, plain and simple. And I know he is, at least in the ring. So countering Ganes tendencies on the feet and mixing it up from time to time. And if that isn't enough, which is possible, we have a french heavyweight champion.

 

[CasualBot]

Except that Gane arguably won that fight.

And stipe won the first one.
Nothing changes.

 

[jeff7b9]

View attachment 971778
View attachment 971779
Everything on Gane is bigger and more muscular except his waste line. Jon will have to put so much effort into moving all this weight and the resistance from all those muscles and has to carry his weight also. This doesn’t look good at all and on top of that he will risk his neck getting caught or elbows or knees. I honestly don’t see a path for Jon to win except for eye gouging Gane. Please think about it before answering.

With all due respect, the entire premise of the thread already accounts for Jon needing to have other ways to win aside from physical attributes.

If you have any commentary regarding strategy, tactics or film study which fall within the thread topic feel free to share them, but simply stating "Jon doesn't have bigger muscles" doesn't bring anything worthwhile to the discussion.

 

[Captain Herb]

When has Jones ever been a lay and pray fighter. The term “hellbows” was coined after his vicious GnP.
If jones gets Gane down with any regularity then Cyril is fucked.

Hellbows? Anyone who started watching in the last 10 years doesn't even know what they are.

 

[taugrim]

Remember that Jon Jones had identified the DC was susceptible to the left high kick from southpaw stance years before he used that technique to finish the fight and they even talked about it in a press conference before their first fight?

Short fighters are always susceptible to head kicks and knees from tall, lanky fighters.

If anything, Jon benefitted heavily over the years from having coaches who (used to) put together great game plans.