Jon Jones will choke out Aspinall almost as easy as he did Gane

[Jinx_AA]

Jones said it himself. Aspinall is +30 lbs heavier, he is bigger, faster, stronger with explosive one-punch knockout power. He said he did not want to risk his legacy for that reason. He has been training grappling since his childhood and is extremely well rounded.

There is no path for Jones for victory, which is why he is ducking. Gane has absolutely no parallels with this scenario. Gane cannot grapple to save his life. He got destroyed on the ground by a striker Volkov while Aspinall submitted Volkov. Gane is a technical fighter who relies on volume. Aspinall is bigger and has the big one-punch knockout power. Jones has not faced anyone remotely close to Aspinall and since Aspinall's whole fight record is literally minutes so there is not much tape on Aspinall for Jones to study and formulate a gameplan.

I can 100% guarantee, Jones will NEVER fight Aspinall. We can come back to this, but I am calling it .

Jones was 30 pounds bigger then machida and other lhws ..sounds like he doubts himself …

he will not make that walk vs aspinall …

 

[Ludwig von Mises]

I doubt he submits him, although it's possible

At the same time, I doubt Aspinall's grappling and defense off his back will be enough to protect him from being mauled by elbows and punches.

It really comes down to whether aspinall is able to defend the takedown, but we've never actually seen him wrestle against anyone remotely close to the level of Jones.

He himself also said DC would be a nightmare matchup for him.

I think the fight would go similar to Matt Serra GSP 2.

Jones would emphasize wrestling and tiring him out early. Which would then open up the striking for Jones on the feet, mixed with hesitancy from Tom due to threat of the takedown.

The versatility of Jones, his punches, knees, elbows, spinning back kick, oblique kicks has proven successful against boxing dominant styles, it's very difficult to actually hit him, but he will definitely be more cautious with Tom, mix in the wrestling and wear on him, with some striking sprinkled in when it's there.

I'd guess Jones takes him into deeper waters and wins there.

Tom does have a strong punchers chance, and Jon's age is a factor, even if the analysis might fit on paper, it's a wild card.

Lol the GSP vs Serra 2 comparison is ridiculous

Aspinall is a young and well rounded HW in his prime and Matt Serra was an old, washed up LW journey man from TUF.

Plenty of guys have survived on the ground with Jones: OSP and Anthony Smith to name a few and multiple guys with height, speed and agility were able to keep Jones from taking them down and bullying them and even took down Jones themselves. Gus and Reyes. Even Vitor who wasn't the greatest grappler from his back put Jon in an armlock.

The difference is that Jones was younger and on steroids in those fights. He hasn't submitted anyone besides Gane in 13 years and Gane is a French regional Muay Thai guy. His ground game lacks heavily.

The reality is Tom is at least as good as prime Gustafsson (I think he's better) and he's better than Reyes and he's definitely not going to struggle any more agaisnt Jones than Anthony Smith or OSP did so it blows my mind how you think this fight will look anything like GSP vs Serra 2 lol Absolute delusion.

Jones is asking for insane amounts of money for this fight for a reason.

 

[10000yearsold]

Stipe was retired in his mid-40s, Aspinall is in his prime right now.

Yep

 

[usernamee]

People dismissing the OP but if it actually happens the excuse train will roll in

"Aspinall just got exposed, he's doesn't have proper x/y/z"

"Who did he even beat?? Pavlovich who Volkov styled on??"

"Aspinall still too green in his career!"

 

[Luffy]

Jones has got a huge chin as well. Miocic's straight right is a nightmare, he KO'd or wobbled many HWs by getting a clean right hand. And I speak of buff heavy HWs btw. JJ was as ring rust as Stipe and coming off an injury while Stipe said he worked out all days until the fight and had a way sharper/buffer physique than vs Ngannou II, weighed ~ 248 lbs while JJ was ~ 236 ... Look at JJ's toughness as Miocic got him a clean straight right in the first 10 seconds. Look how Jon Jones took Miocic down... Miocic, a rather good wrestler (not jiu jitsu, but a wrestler, he was a verified out of the curve wrestler for HWs). Miocic was quick in the first round, but I don't think anyone expects a fighter to look as quick and sharp after getting those brutal elbows from JJ who controlled him from the top landing nasty g&p for 3 minutes...



^ This is a short video of the slow motion of some highlights. Look at the clean right hand Stipe got at the start of the fight and then, look at how JJ's takedown technique literally lifted Stipe off the ground...




^ this is JJ's analysis after the fight. He said Stipe is a nightmare, highlighting how even after that nasty ground and pound in the first round, and after many kicks and knees to the body that he practiced a lot with that very famous French Muay Thai specialist coach, that Stipe would still keep fighting without showing reactions of pain, that his durability is just a nightmare...

 

[Hhyton]

Stipe was reaching 50 and Gane got outgrappled by Volkov. Not the best comparison.

although a lot of the thread has responded in fury it wouldn’t shock me if Jones beat him quickly

That's his only path to victory

 

[Small Town Andrew]

I've been saying this. British guys can't wrestle for shit. Will be easy money

 

[Pequeño Corey]

Even a troll can be correct once in a while

 

[Tweak896]

Based on what? Subbing Gane who has terrible grappling? Before that you have to go back 13 years for Jones last sub.

Based on Jones having the better wrestling. And usually the guy controlling the ground is the one who submits. I just think the guys that Jones submitted have better BJJ than the ones Aspinall has.

 

[BangBang]

I've been saying this. British guys can't wrestle for shit. Will be easy money

Obviously know nothing about Aspinall. He's been doing wrestling and BJJ since conception.

 

[AstralPanda]

Lol the GSP vs Serra 2 comparison is ridiculous

Aspinall is a young and well rounded HW in his prime and Matt Serra was an old, washed up LW journey man from TUF.

Plenty of guys have survived on the ground with Jones: OSP and Anthony Smith to name a few and multiple guys with height, speed and agility were able to keep Jones from taking them down and bullying them and even took down Jones themselves. Gus and Reyes. Even Vitor who wasn't the greatest grappler from his back put Jon in an armlock.

The difference is that Jones was younger and on steroids in those fights. He hasn't submitted anyone besides Gane in 13 years and Gane is a French regional Muay Thai guy. His ground game lacks heavily.

The reality is Tom is at least as good as prime Gustafsson (I think he's better) and he's better than Reyes and he's definitely not going to struggle any more agaisnt Jones than Anthony Smith or OSP did so it blows my mind how you think this fight will look anything like GSP vs Serra 2 lol Absolute delusion.

Jones is asking for insane amounts of money for this fight for a reason

The comparison has has nothing to do with their merit as fighters.

Only the difference in strategy that GSP employed from the first to the second fight.

He didnt even give him a chance to stay on the feet, immediately took him down, made him carry his weight, landed strikes and tired him out.

When they were on the feet again in the second round, Serra's limbs were heavy and be didn't have the same pop on his punches.

Which is when we seen GSP start striking with Serra.

The wrestling and subsequent threat of the takedown opened up the striking.

We've seen Aspinall box, but how does that technique and pop on his punches change as he's brought into deeper waters and it's not just a striking match, but you have to worry about every move you make potentially leading to you on your back and getting elbowed into the abyss again.

GSP employed a similar strategy against Serra in the second fight, that was the only comparison i was making. It had nothing to do with their merit as fighters. Nor was I suggesting Jones would finish him in such a way, only that a similarly versatile strategy would be likely for him.

In regards to Tom, the issue is that it's all conjecture. None of us really know how good Aspinall is. We know he's fast, agile, hits hard, good boxing technique, black belt in jiu jitsu and a big man.

But how is his wrestling? His grappling off the back. How is his cardio past the first round, especially as a heavyweight who puts so much energy into his punches to get these knockouts? How does he handle an elite kicker and versatile striker with a boxing dominant style?

There's a lot of questions. Maybe he could end up being better than those guys but it's all just a guess.

Everyone at LHW had been through a meat grinder of wrestling opponents before they'd ever met Jones. So, until we've seen Tom's wrestling, we just don't know. Way too many questions to speak with certainty, even If he is talented.

Tom himself has stated DC would be a nightmare matchup for him. Didn't seem confident he'd win that matchup at all, his own words.

Thing about Jones is, when you really study his career, there's a huge variability in the level of effort he put into every fight. The best version was when he fought DC, both times. Rashad, Rampage and a few others.

To use another GSP analogy, it's when you have no fear of your opponents or butterflies, like GSP's first fight against Serra, that's when you are most vulnerable and likely to be upset. He said on a podcast that he's scared before every fight, can never sleep. The one fight he did, was against Serra.

I think that same lack of fear and butterflies were responsible for some of Jon's least impressive performances. OSP, Smith, Reyes, Gus, Santos. A lot of fights he was just going through the motions, not training as hard, partying leading up to fights and all kinds of shit.

Which Jones you see comes down to how much he respects you as an opponent.

The problem is that analyzing those versions of Jones is going to give people a very skewed version of what Jones is actually capable of, if he performs to his potential.

So when we say, well, Jones struggled a few times at LHW, so and so is gonna beat him, it's a little short sighted and not taking into account that variability of potential.

I believe that's largely why he moved to HW to begin with, motivation. Excitement of a new challenge. Money. All the things that no longer existed at LHW.

Jones is asking for insane amounts of money because that's what every fighter in history is pushing for in their final fight, going back to the early days of boxing. It's nothing new. He's got the leverage, is one of the only stars left in the sport and has already cemented his legacy. This fight doesn't change it in either direction, the only point with that in mind is money.


At that stage of your career, you want the biggest fights with the highest possible payday. No different than Ngannou leaving for the greener pastures of Saudi oil boxing.

Which by the way, most people praised him for doing as an exceptional career move.

 

[JustOnce]

That's his only path to victory

Well no one knows what Aspinall's gas tank is either, but here's to hoping to an one way ticket to a shadow realm for Jones by Aspinall!

 

[Luffy]

The comparison has has nothing to do with their merit as fighters.

Only the difference in strategy that GSP employed from the first to the second fight.

He didnt even give him a chance to stay on the feet, immediately took him down, made him carry his weight, landed strikes and tired him out.

When they were on the feet again in the second round, Serra's limbs were heavy and be didn't have the same pop on his punches.

Which is when we seen GSP start striking with Serra.

The wrestling and subsequent threat of the takedown opened up the striking.

We've seen Aspinall box, but how does that technique and pop on his punches change as he's brought into deeper waters and it's not just a striking match, but you have to worry about every move you make potentially leading to you on your back and getting elbowed into the abyss again.

GSP employed a similar strategy against Serra in the second fight, that was the only comparison i was making. It had nothing to do with their merit as fighters. Nor was I suggesting Jones would finish him in such a way, only that a similarly versatile strategy would be likely for him.

In regards to Tom, the issue is that it's all conjecture. None of us really know how good Aspinall is. We know he's fast, agile, hits hard, good boxing technique, black belt in jiu jitsu and a big man.

But how is his wrestling? His grappling off the back. How is his cardio past the first round, especially as a heavyweight who puts so much energy into his punches to get these knockouts? How does he handle an elite kicker and versatile striker with a boxing dominant style?

There's a lot of questions. Maybe he could end up being better than those guys but it's all just a guess.

Everyone at LHW had been through a meat grinder of wrestling opponents before they'd ever met Jones. So, until we've seen Tom's wrestling, we just don't know. Way too many questions to speak with certainty, even If he is talented.

Tom himself has stated DC would be a nightmare matchup for him. Didn't seem confident he'd win that matchup at all, his own words.

Thing about Jones is, when you really study his career, there's a huge variability in the level of effort he put into every fight. The best version was when he fought DC, both times. Rashad, Rampage and a few others.

To use another GSP analogy, it's when you have no fear of your opponents or butterflies, like GSP's first fight against Serra, that's when you are most vulnerable and likely to be upset. He said on a podcast that he's scared before every fight, can never sleep. The one fight he did, was against Serra.

I think that same lack of fear and butterflies were responsible for some of Jon's least impressive performances. OSP, Smith, Reyes, Gus, Santos. A lot of fights he was just going through the motions, not training as hard, partying leading up to fights and all kinds of shit.

Which Jones you see comes down to how much he respects you as an opponent.

The problem is that analyzing those versions of Jones is going to give people a very skewed version of what Jones is actually capable of, if he performs to his potential.

So when we say, well, Jones struggled a few times at LHW, so and so is gonna beat him, it's a little short sighted and not taking into account that variability of potential.

I believe that's largely why he moved to HW to begin with, motivation. Excitement of a new challenge. Money. All the things that no longer existed at LHW.

Jones is asking for insane amounts of money because that's what every fighter in history is pushing for in their final fight, going back to the early days of boxing. It's nothing new. He's got the leverage, is one of the only stars left in the sport and has already cemented his legacy. This fight doesn't change it in either direction, the only point with that in mind is money.


At that stage of your career, you want the biggest fights with the highest possible payday. No different than Ngannou leaving for the greener pastures of Saudi oil boxing.

Which by the way, most people praised him for doing as an exceptional career move.

Excellent post!! Very, very good.

 

[NenadRS]

He took down Miocic easily with a trip, Gane is the same size as Aspinall and got manhandled.

Miocic had one bad knee, it was very swollen on weigh-ins and he had a limp in pre fight videos. Look at DC fights, Miocic was much faster and wrestled better, moved differently compared to Jones fight.

Hard to guess how Jones vs Aspinall strenght compares, but seems Jones won't be able to control Aspinall down.

 

[krelianx]

I seriously don't understand why Jones would take this fight. It is a terrible idea.

 

[bjjwar]

Fight will never happen, Jones sh** his pants everytime someone mentions Aspinall. Surprised Jones didnt ask for a Stipe rematch saying Stipe deserves it and Dana coming out saying thats the fight the fans want to see…

 

[Vehap1]

He took down Miocic easily with a trip, Gane is the same size as Aspinall and got manhandled.

Reyes is 40lb smaller than Tom - How did that go?


He took down the retired Fireman once...And thats it, looked very slow with extremly poor boxing defence as always

 

[Alpha_T83]

He might very well do that. And if he does, no matter what Aspinall goes on to do, Jon will go down as one of the HW GOATs.

But Jon Jones would have to accept the fight to make that happen.

 

[Alpha_T83]

Fight will never happen, Jones sh** his pants everytime someone mentions Aspinall. Surprised Jones didnt ask for a Stipe rematch saying Stipe deserves it and Dana coming out saying thats the fight the fans want to see…

I think Jon Jones plan is to hope Pereira beats Ankalaev in the rematch come August. Then you will see him campaign hard for the champ-champ fight at HW.

 

[b00tysweat]

People dismissing the OP but if it actually happens the excuse train will roll in

"Aspinall just got exposed, he's doesn't have proper x/y/z"

"Who did he even beat?? Pavlovich who Volkov styled on??"

"Aspinall still too green in his career!"

and then "everybody knew Jones was going to crush Tom, Tom is a total can"

and then find some new hero to root for over the GOAT