You say you put a lot of thought into your analysis but your posts read like a repetitive denial. You were convinced Jon Jones wasn't ducking Ngannou. He's doing the same thing sagain with Tom Aspinall. Can you not see that? It's not hate. Fight fans are deeply disappointed.
Or maybe I actually did the research
Jones was back in the ufc long before Ngannou officially left.
It was mid 2022 that Chael, DC, Dana and Ariel all reported that Jones was back
And they were trying to make the Stipe fight.
According to Ariel per Twitter, the deal was all but done, they were just waiting for Stipe to sign the contract. He ended up declining due to money issues.
Following this deal falling through, it was reported that Jones would fight on the march 2023 card through various media outlets and personalities. They all reported that Jones was fighting for the belt next, his opponent was contingent on whether Ngannou signed or not. If he didn't, then his opponent would be Gane.
This was all widely reported about a month before ngannou officially left.
Jones during this time ramped up his Twitter and Instagram posts, stating that he was training to fight for the world title next. Again, this was long before ngannou left.
Dana during 2-3 events in a row stated Jones will be fighting for the belt next.
DC, Chael, Ariel, Schaub all reported this.
Finally, ngannou and his coach did an interview and stated they were offered the Jones fight for 8 million dollars but refused it because in the event he lost, there was no security. They both outright said they could've took the Jones fight and chose not to. Instead opting for greener pastures.
This idea that he ducked comes from public preliminary negotiations that Dana brought. up about Jones asking for 30 million, which was back in the 2021. This was never brought up again by either party and Dana's tune changed from being unsure of Jon's future pre 2022, to saying they're looking to get him a fight a few months later.
Which was shortly after Jones posted on Twitter about not being impressed with the Gane / Ngannou fight.
If Jones was still in negotiations or had qualms about money, either Dana or Jones would've brought it up. They didn't, which means they worked it out, Jones got a bump up in pay and was happy about it.
This idea that Jones only came back after Ngannou left is essentially fantasy. All the evidence disproves this to the point that it can't even be disputed. The idea that he took a pay cut to fight Gane is also fantasy.
He also got up to 265 pounds at one point and it's very clear that he was training to fight at heavyweight.
I don't believe he ducked ngannou because he didn't and this is what a mountain of evidence shows.
In regards to Tom, he fought Stipe who he'd already had a full camp preparing to fight him before he got injured, this was long before Tom became a contender. I don't view fighting Stipe to be ducking, they were never not going to make the Stipe fight after already doing the promotion, buildup, interviews and having a full camp for it just because a new contender showed up. You can't duck a fight that was never offered or even a possibly.
Following the fight, Jones stated that he's not going to retire and gonna give the fans what they want to see, hinting at negotiations needing to happen, during his octagon interview.
Hes also said Tom doesn't so anything for him, unless the UFC pays him accordingly.
Dana is confident the fight happens. Jones outright said he needs 6 months to prepare for him.
Based on all of these facts, there hasn't actually been any official ducking yet. In fact, the evidence seems to show that there's a good possibility the fight happens, unless we just pretend the words of Jones and Dana don't matter.
Perhaps he will duck. But he hasn't yet and my mentality is we just have to wait and see before speaking with conviction. Anything can happen.