I'm not sure. I'm not confident in either one winning, I think it's pretty unknown. I wouldn't be surprised if it ended with Aspinall KO'ing JJ in the first round... Like, I'd be shocked in the sense of, "damn... When I started watching UFC here and then in 2012 it seemed like JJ was an invincible machine and I rooted for him to lose, I didn't want him to win given he hadn't a positive energy, and all that stuff"... But he'd keep winning to the point that I just started rooting for him as it just became kinda amazing that no matter what, he just would always win... So yeah, it'd be shocking to know JJ was KO'd... It'd be a "... Wow... That's the end of the biggest MMA reign... Damn..." ...
But also, I wouldn't be surprised if Jon Jones got Aspinall to the ground and TKO'd or submitted him in the first round... I'd be equally "makes sense" with both outcomes.
I wouldn't be surprised either if Jon Jones mixes the grappling with the striking, makes it difficult to Tom Aspinall without shooting for takedowns but relying on striking and offensive grappling striking, then going for the takedown and finishing him in, like, the later rounds...
I'm still kinda inclined for JJ to win tbh. I think JJ values his undefeated record and the way he retires, on top, A LOT... And I don't think he'd trade that to being richer, actually way richer when he is already good enough money wise. I think he is such a competitor in the sense of going to lengths to get a win, that he wouldn't do it... Unless he fully believes he has what it takes to beat Tom Aspinall, and thinks that he'll most likely do it, but also, wants the $ as a perfect retirement or, in the unlikely but possible case he loses, he at least has this $ motivator... Which to him, would imo still be worse than retiring after Stipe and living with the money he already has. He's a competitor, and he knows what he's capable of, so I doubt that simply because he wants to make the most of it as his likely last fight, plus the danger factor, and the # of ppl wanting to see it, that he is going there expecting to lose, rather, to have the perfect outcome and do what, imo, he believes he can, beat up Aspinall.