Joe NoBrain "I'm revising my thinking about this virus."

[thewhiterooster]

sherbros are buff, good looking bad ass fighter dudes... now? they're all smarter than rogan. what's next?

 

[HeadMovementHeadMovement]

One of the biggest problems is the misinformation fed by the media and those with "political agendas" on both sides of the coin. This thread is pretty much just fear mongering too. Yeah no shit at this point we are "flattening" the curve and this virus is serious, but how serious is it really? And does it affect those who aren't super-compromised?

There is basically no indication or evidence that this is deadly or life-altering to young and healthy people, even late 30s to 50s it seems for the most part non-lethal, and non-life altering.

To those fear mongering, where's the evidence? All I've seen is bullshit that was refuted, for example some Fox news Dallas reporter claiming that 20s-30s year olds were in critical condition and saying "it isn't just for old people, young should be scared too!". Then the bitch didn't even delete her tweet, but subtweeted that they simply went into the ICU at some point (also unclear if they ever did because the actual article listed 3 in ICU and named 9 people and some were 70-90).

There is just a bunch of bullshit and misinformation, and I don't fuck with that honestly.

Well, you have numbers from science and health organizations. You have statements from health experts. It's an evolving situation, but the picture is slowly becoming clearer. You can draw conclusions from those numbers and statements.

If you don't believe said people, and need to see it with your own eyes, then that's a different story.

The numbers say, yeah on the "chances" are, if you're young and healthy, you'll "probably" be fine. Of course, there's risk in any activity, so we have to quantify to make it meaningful. Mortality rates for 10-50 year olds is 0.3%.

What is 0.3% though? Imagine a game where you're drawing two cards from a deck, the chances you draw two aces is 0.5%, so about equal. And frankly I wouldn't play, if drawing two aces meant I'd die. Drawing 5, 6, 7 aces, maybe. But two? Personally, no.

Every country with an outbreak is taking similar measures, and you can see what's happening in Italy, where they still took measures, but it was too late.

Cases are doubling every 2.2 days in the United States, so if things hold America's only a week behind Italy.

source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
two ace example: https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-p...aces-with-replacement-from-a-pack-of-52-cards

 

[ObamaPhoneLady]

Should have changed his thinking long ago when 20000 died just in the USA alone from the flu.

How many people in the age bracket that coronies kills have died of 'natural causes' worldwide in the last couple months, I wonder?

 

[HeadMovementHeadMovement]

Everyone knows it's scary af, the question is how long should we quarantine?

Can't stop our economy forever; there is a certain amount of time that is right to quarantine, we def do not want to go to long, or too short.

Honestly don't think anybody knows the exact correct answer, there should be some type of balance though imo.

I think you are right on the balance. Although within a full year we'll have a vaccine, and there's a race to find effective treatments, so we won't have to wait a full year.

Pretty sure it's going to take longer than 2 weeks though. In fact I'm not even sure it will peak in the United States within 2 weeks.

 

[HeadMovementHeadMovement]

It's a sensitive topic given that people have different skin in the game, whether that's loved ones you want to protect, or your financial situation.

Surprised this thread hasn't been wastelanded yet.

 

[Akhmat]

What you BJJ pusses get! 1 death in Russia. 1 freaking death. Fewer cases than freaking Iceland!!!

Why? Because you do not have the Best Leader Ever swagging around in Sambo gear protecting your hospitals.

Putin sends signals. Sambo Gear = Khabib vs. Tony in Russia.

 

[No Skill Gap]

Well, you have numbers from science and health organizations. You have statements from health experts. It's an evolving situation, but the picture is slowly becoming clearer. You can draw conclusions from those numbers and statements.

If you don't believe said people, and need to see it with your own eyes, then that's a different story.

The numbers say, yeah on the "chances" are, if you're young and healthy, you'll "probably" be fine. Of course, there's risk in any activity, so we have to quantify to make it meaningful. Mortality rates for 10-50 year olds is 0.3%.

What is 0.3% though? Imagine a game where you're drawing two cards from a deck, the chances you draw two aces is 0.5%, so about equal. And frankly I wouldn't play, if drawing two aces meant I'd die. Drawing 5, 6, 7 aces, maybe. But two? Personally, no.

Every country with an outbreak is taking similar measures, and you can see what's happening in Italy, where they still took measures, but it was too late.

Cases are doubling every 2.2 days in the United States, so if things hold America's only a week behind Italy.

source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
two ace example: https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-p...aces-with-replacement-from-a-pack-of-52-cards

Yes but you're lumping 10-16 year olds with 17-24 year olds with 25-32 year olds with 33-40 year olds with 41-47 year olds with 47-50 year olds. That's the problem, and not meaning to make it look retarded like that ^ but had to depict it.

Yes 0.3% OF those who are even infected, which if we totally got fucked here in the US for example would be like 50-60% of people, maybe 70% max. You're talking about odds like it's gambling and yes to some extent sure, but you are looking at the odds in a flawed manner.

First off there's a massive difference between a kid to teen to 22-32 year old than there is with a 45-50 year old. Secondly, you are looking at the pure mortality rate, but that "0.3%" doesn't care about details. The details of most of those deaths probably being people with cancer, HIV, immune disorders, other serious problems. Perhaps some didn't get treatment right away or could not afford it - in the US or especially in poorer countries.

Yes the ace example I get it. But it doesn't work. This isn't pure odds. Well at least talking from my personal standpoint of being a late 20s, healthy individual for example. Maybe that's selfish on some level, but I don't think it is...in terms of wanting to know the facts and truth of my situation and the majority of people who aren't elderly. It's not Russian Roulette here.

I have a problem with the fear mongering of "life long lung damage!!!" which isn't founded or reported at all. Look at NBA players like Donovan Mitchell, he tested positive and had basically no symptoms at all he said. Nothing at all. And then you have guys like the olympic South African swimmer who had a very bad flu - worst of his life he claims - but that's all it was really. Problem is you got conspiracy nuts like some guy in this thread saying "he almost died!" to propagate their own weirdo "agenda".

 

[KING BONES]

How many people in the age bracket that coronies kills have died of 'natural causes' worldwide in the last couple months, I wonder?

So true..."numbers" are easily manipulated...yet taken as absolute fact by the common man.

 

[Rum]

Who says im panicking or being hysterical? Ive grown food for 4 years. I ferment foods, i know basic survival skills. I forage foods, make and tincture my own medicines.

Those numbers are EXTREMELY inflated. Since they are largely based on community gardens iñ which people are entitled to a very small plot of land.

The issue doesn't lie with them. It does with the vast majority of people who are completely reliant on normal function of the food supply chain. The fall of the soviet union and the great depression seen such circumstances, yet they made it through because they had abundance of food. Most western countries dont have those same safegaurds in place


As i said, if the same circumstances of the great depression happened today, it would be something to behold.

Hey bro, you were the goofus who claimed only 0.01% of people have more than zero self sufficiency and basic survival skills, when in actual fact around 35% of households do in fact have some self sufficiency and basic survival skills.

Even better if some are based in some part on community gardens, indicating that said food and sustenance skills are readily transferable throughout communities. Not only that, science has advanced food knowledge and technology in Western countries to such a degree that home food production is significantly easier and more efficient now than it ever was in the 30s.

I mean, shit bro, even a hysterical drama queen like YOU can do it, how hard can it be?

 

[HeadMovementHeadMovement]

Yes but you're lumping 10-16 year olds with 17-24 year olds with 25-32 year olds with 33-40 year olds with 41-47 year olds with 47-50 year olds. That's the problem, and not meaning to make it look retarded like that ^ but had to depict it.

Yes 0.3% OF those who are even infected, which if we totally got fucked here in the US for example would be like 50-60% of people, maybe 70% max. You're talking about odds like it's gambling and yes to some extent sure, but you are looking at the odds in a flawed manner.

First off there's a massive difference between a kid to teen to 22-32 year old than there is with a 45-50 year old. Secondly, you are looking at the pure mortality rate, but that "0.3%" doesn't care about details. The details of most of those deaths probably being people with cancer, HIV, immune disorders, other serious problems. Perhaps some didn't get treatment right away or could not afford it - in the US or especially in poorer countries.

Yes the ace example I get it. But it doesn't work. This isn't pure odds. Well at least talking from my personal standpoint of being a late 20s, healthy individual for example. Maybe that's selfish on some level, but I don't think it is...in terms of wanting to know the facts and truth of my situation and the majority of people who aren't elderly. It's not Russian Roulette here.

I have a problem with the fear mongering of "life long lung damage!!!" which isn't founded or reported at all. Look at NBA players like Donovan Mitchell, he tested positive and had basically no symptoms at all he said. Nothing at all. And then you have guys like the olympic South African swimmer who had a very bad flu - worst of his life he claims - but that's all it was really. Problem is you got conspiracy nuts like some guy in this thread saying "he almost died!" to propagate their own weirdo "agenda".

The same site has a slice by pre-existing condition: mortality rate was 0.9% for those with no pre-existing condition. That said, age isn't included in that slice, though maybe if you looked up sources you could find that.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

And I did lump all the groups together rather than include the table for simplicity since they were rather similar. Here's the full table from the site:


There are anecdotal reports of young, healthy people with no conditions getting hospitalized, some dying. But that's anecdotal at this point.

The mortality rate is just the bottom line, though:
Hospitalized -> ICU -> death
From this article with earlier data, 20% were hospitalized, and 5% were in the ICU.

So if you line of thinking is, how likely am I to get fucked up, I think just being hospitalized would qualify for me, personally. ICU I think you've got a tube down your throat and a respirator. While odds might be better if that equipment is available, it might run out depending on your locale.

Re fear mongering, it's an unprecedented event in our lifetimes, so understandably (at least imo) people are in a frenzy as their loved ones, their finances, or both are at risk.

 

[sweetviolenturg]

what do you think happens when the global economy shuts down? Everyone loses money meaning we need more stimulus, which comes from the people who are losing money. I know it’s really hip and cool to be compassionate, but use your brain for five seconds.

Well, if a couple of million lives are so disposable in order to keep the economy going then you obviously wouldn't mind it if some of those people were your loved ones, right? Because it's for the greater good?

 

[The Big Bang]

Well, if a couple of million lives are so disposable in order to keep the economy going then you obviously wouldn't mind it if some of those people were your loved ones, right? Because it's for the greater good?

He won't respond with a real answer because his postulation was fake.

 

[No Skill Gap]

It's a sensitive topic given that people have different skin in the game, whether that's loved ones you want to protect, or your financial situation.

Surprised this thread hasn't been wastelanded yet.

I used to play a ton of poker btw, sorry I wrote a lot but continuing on the last point. Being dealt pocket aces is less than 0.5% actually. 1/221

But to TLDR: It's not 0.3% or 1/333.33 to die. The odds are much lower than that, for say a healthy 25-33 year old male.

The same site has a slice by pre-existing condition: mortality rate was 0.9% for those with no pre-existing condition. That said, age isn't included in that slice, though maybe if you looked up sources you could find that.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

And I did lump all the groups together rather than include the table for simplicity since they were rather similar. Here's the full table from the site:
View attachment 754715

There are anecdotal reports of young, healthy people with no conditions getting hospitalized, some dying. But that's anecdotal at this point.

The mortality rate is just the bottom line, though:
Hospitalized -> ICU -> death
From this article with earlier data, 20% were hospitalized, and 5% were in the ICU.

So if you line of thinking is, how likely am I to get fucked up, I think just being hospitalized would qualify for me, personally. ICU I think you've got a tube down your throat and a respirator. While odds might be better if that equipment is available, it might run out depending on your locale.

Re fear mongering, it's an unprecedented event in our lifetimes, so understandably (at least imo) people are in a frenzy as their loved ones, their finances, or both are at risk.

Yes but this is exactly my point. Some of the "ICU" reports are bullshit. Anecdote is being counted, and bullshit reports. For example let me find this one I refuted myself:

https://www.fox4news.com/news/nine-...irmed-in-dallas-county-three-in-critical-care

This story is claiming 3 people in their 20s-30s are in critical condition, from a week ago. Yet very suspiciously 9 people are counted as infected and two are in their 50s, one is 60s, and one is 70s in age.

I saw this originally from a tweet someone posted in a discord. I'm not from Texas at all, but I saw a reporter from this Dallas fox news station tweet that "the virus is dangerous to young people too!!!" citing this report. Then correcting herself in the subtweet by saying the "critical condition" reports were basically bullshit.



It takes 1 minute to do a bit of investigating and see the utter bullshit the media pulls, in this specific case.

To get more focused: I think the numbers are still skewed here. Yes neither of us or anyone wants to be incubated or die. But I also believe that these numbers for healthy, younger people are fudged by false reports such as this, and then the unfortunate people who were already diseased and then infected who need ICU care or ultimately died.

To your last point, sure...I'm not a conspiracy tinfoil sped, but at the same time the US media has been feeding bullshit and slanting stuff since Vietnam right? I don't see a reason to take anything the mainstream media says at face value and then you have morons spreading misinformation in places like twitter and here for example on the flip. That's what annoys me. Not knowing the facts, even if the situation is growing and obviously real studies can't be done yet. At least long-term and solid ones.

 

[No Skill Gap]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I just clarified what critical condition means specifically in this instance — in the ICU.</p>&mdash; Allison Harris (@AllisonFox4News) <a href="">March 18, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

This was the exposure part. They clarified being in critical condition as "being in the ICU". Pretty sure they just visited the ICU as a precaution in this case. But who fucking knows because you have a bunch of flat earthers, lib-cuck 18-30 year old girls, and morons subtweeting their 60 iq opinions.

For the record I don't have a political side, and I don't even use twitter pretty much ever. I just hate being misinformed and not knowing the facts. So not to ramble on, but from what we know right now I have to say anyone who is ~0-35 years old who doesn't have cancer, HIV, some crippling disease already - is pretty much 100% safe. That is what I would say. But who knows.

 

[MescalineDreams]

Hey bro, you were the goofus who claimed only 0.01% of people have more than zero self sufficiency and basic survival skills, when in actual fact around 35% of households do in fact have some self sufficiency and basic survival skills.

Even better if some are based in some part on community gardens, indicating that said food and sustenance skills are readily transferable throughout communities. Not only that, science has advanced food knowledge and technology in Western countries to such a degree that home food production is significantly easier and more efficient now than it ever was in the 30s.

I mean, shit bro, even a hysterical drama queen like YOU can do it, how hard can it be?

Even if that 35% figure were accurate( most certainly extremely overinflated) its almost entirely based on community gardens. In which people produce only a fraction of the food necessary to feed their own families.

Great as this boom may be, it matters little in the bottom line. Its the vast majority who lack self sufficiency, mental fortitude and basic skills / awareness than those who survived those times did.

This is where the issue lies should there be any major, far reaching supply chain disruption as we've seen in the great depression and the fall of the soviet union.

Agriculture has been around for 10000+ years. Endless generations of concentrated knowledge, seed saving, etc. You really think it's advanced that much in the last century? Besides the point. Even if that were true, the point remains that the vast majority of people are not urban homesteading. They are not self sufficient and they are largely unprepared.

I have been involved in food, cooking, self sustainability, wild foraging and medicine craft for the better part of a decade. This sort of knowledge is very far from common amongst the pampered masses living in major metropolitan areas.

You call it drama / hysteria. When its really just awareness that most people are multiple fold less prepared for any long standing emergency compared with those that survived the great depression. Or even the fall of the soviet union

 

[tonni]

Why don't you step right up & volunteer to die then?

You gotta sacrifice some people for the greater good, aka the big money, aka the global consumer economy that was an accelerating factor in spreading this virus.

 

[The Big Bang]

Even if that 35% figure were accurate( most certainly extremely overinflated) its almost entirely based on community gardens. In which people produce only a fraction of the food necessary to feed their own families.

Great as this boom may be, it matters little in the bottom line. Its the vast majority who lack self sufficiency, mental fortitude and basic skills / awareness than those who survived those times did.

This is where the issue lies should there be any major, far reaching supply chain disruption as we've seen in the great depression and the fall of the soviet union.

Agriculture has been around for 10000+ years. Endless generations of concentrated knowledge, seed saving, etc. You really think it's advanced that much in the last century? Besides the point. Even if that were true, the point remains that the vast majority of people are not urban homesteading. They are not self sufficient and they are largely unprepared.

I have been involved in food, cooking, self sustainability, wild foraging and medicine craft for the better part of a decade. This sort of knowledge is very far from common amongst the pampered masses living in major metropolitan areas.

You call it drama / hysteria. When its really just awareness that most people are multiple fold less prepared for any long standing emergency compared with those that survived the great depression. Or even the fall of the soviet union

Mescaline...don't bother even replying to fools who are calling you out.

They respond with bullshit negativity because they are scared.

They talk out of their asses 24/7.

What you're saying is SUPER on point, and sadly, people are in a world of hurt because they are WHOLLY unprepared for what's coming.

 

[MescalineDreams]

Mescaline...don't bother even replying to fools who are calling you out.

They respond with bullshit negativity because they are scared.

They talk out of their asses 24/7.

What you're saying is SUPER on point, and sadly, people are in a world of hurt because they are WHOLLY unprepared for what's coming.

Well, it may not be coming. We really don't know as of yet

But its certainly on the table as a possibility

And should it play out like that, the chaos created will truly be something to behold

Some people do some pretty insane mental gymnastics to not admit they may be wrong. Crazy stuff

 

[JoshR86]

Yes it is. At the current rate you'll have 100,000s infected in the US, maybe millions, and even at those death rates that is an immense amount of human suffering. Add to the fact that once the healthcare system becomes overburdened (it already is), you are going to see mortality rates increase.

Everything you wrote is hyperbole and inaccurate.

80%+ of those with coronavirus get better at home and don't over burden any medical establishment.

If you locked down old people and high risk individuals like Denmark, than that figure of 80% drastically raises well over 90%.

Considering old people alone make up make up majority of cases, you would be dropping down daily cases and those infected by atleast 50%.

The health care system is not over burdened anywhere but Italy.

Dummies like you look at the active cases and for some reason come to the conclusion that they are all being hospitalized, which only a small fraction are.

 

[Bagatur]

Isnt there only 20,000 deaths worldwide. There are approximately 7.8 billion people. So that is roughly %0.0000026

lol 20000 out of 7.8 billion is NOT 0.0000026%. any other wisdom you want to share with us, retard?