Costa will lose because there is no complexity to his game. He's a straight forward high volume, high pressure, brawler, who throws semi-decent punches and has everyone creaming themselves cause he goes to the body under specific conditions.
He relies on his output and resilience to get him through fights. As Gilbert Melendez pointed out for those ESPN breakdowns, Costa meets power with power, meaning he doesn't mind getting hit in order for him to hit you. He's confident in his physical abilities (being a bully in the cage) which is why he doesn't develop his game much. This mentality, along with his simple game, and high output, will be his undoing.
This guy was tailor made for Izzy.
1) Israel has fought plenty of guys like this in Kickboxing:
If higher level strikers, who actually employ traps, use nuanced combinations, and have pure striking experience couldn't put Izzy out (sans Perriera) how is a basic striker like Paulo going to do it? He isn't the boxer some of you claim he is, far from it.
Those "body punches" everyone loses their mind about? Paulo mostly only uses them when he has you trapped against the cage, otherwise he's head hunting and eating shots. How is a low level cage cutter like Costa going to trap Israel? You guys clown on Izzy for resetting to the center ("running"), it's an intelligent tactic and Paulo won't have Israel's back against the cage because of this and Izzy's lateral movement.
2) Paulo is not defensively responsible:
Back to Melendez, Costa meets power with power. He takes one to give one. He randomly uses head movement and it isn't to set him up for counter strikes, it's just kind of something he does. His defensive footwork in non existent. He throws a lot of shots, willing to take what's coming back at him. He hasn't fought any polished strikers who can make him pay for this yet. Izzy will counter Costa comfortably all night as he marches forward, unable to cut off Izzy with his obvious footwork and round kicks.
This is the same guy who was struggling with an undisciplined striker in Uriah Hall. Uriah Hall finally decided to pump a jab and he was tagging Costa at will, busting his face up. Hall being more worried about being some Tekken fighter, wasn't defensively sound, and went punch for punch with Costa. Basically fought Costas fight, and succumbed to the pressure. Not to mention he a fighter who famously folds. Israel is neither of those things and he's a much more disciplined and nuanced striker.
3) Paulo is very basic, obvious:
There is no nuance to Paulo's game, hes able to land so much because he's willing to eat shots. His offense is limited and obvious. Though his punches are tighter than many fighters, he tenses up with all his strikes, making his offense extremely obvious for seasoned strikers.
Izzy will let Paulo attempt to march him down, while peppering him jabs to the nose and chin, capitalizing on his openings with quick counters, and utilizing his footwork and lateral movement to avoid the cage. Once Costa starts breathing from his mouth early in the third, Israel will turn it up, diversify his offense, and put him out.
Of course Costa coming in with a grappling heavy gameplan would make this fight look completely different. Should Costa come out the way he usually does, I envision the fight going similar to what I summarized above.
There you go I played my hand. No one who has called me on being confident about my pick has done this. It's a lot easier to build an argument when someone has already presented something. I'm so confident Izzy is going to put this guy down that I don't mind it. Come at shersheep.
