I had plans to get out last year
guess how well those went?
Now, I've got some things going on that are going to keep me from leaving even if I could at this point - I've been threatening to leave for years, but always find a reason not to.
The Western Cape keeps talking about secession - a majority of their voters think it should at least be voted on, even if they don't want to secede. If things don't change, I think that there's a chance, over time, that the Western Cape manages to leave the Republic or at least federalise and they've made a couple of moves in that direction - though, as well-run as they are, they have a history of water-dependence on the rest of the country and that might be a huge problem.
IF they manage to secede, they'll be taking the second-wealthiest and most well-run industry and infrastructure with them, and will probably brain-drain the rest of the country in short order. I don't think it would take long after that for South Africa to degrade into little more than a collection of independently and poorly run city states, with tracts of lawless land between them governed by crime bosses and warlords - it would probably all be absorbed into a larger pan-African territory at some point.
That's the more negative prediction. On the positive side, South Africa is ripe for an authentically African, South African nationalist (
not black nationalist) to rise to the fore. The people are hungry for ownership and personal empowerment. They're mostly aware that the ANC is a corrupt house of thieves. And, contrary to popular belief, race is not close to the main issue in their minds. There are a couple of figures in both SA business and politics that very much have the potential to fill the right-of-centre shoes that South Africa needs someone to fill.
On the specific topic of this thread, I still expect Zuma to get some sort of reprieve. And, whether or not he does, I expect the violence to die down. The biggest takeaway of this story is really that the ANC may have shortened its own already short lifespan.
Predictions are tough, and if you asked me tomorrow, I'd have a different dozen.
It's worth noting that I think South Africa can be looked to as a marker for the direction a number of other, far more developed, countries are headed.